Two further polls in the wake of the weekend Newspoll, including voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan and its regularly conducted but irregularly published federal polling series. This shows Labor with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, unchanged from the last such poll a month ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 34.5% (unchanged), Greens 12.5% (down half a point) and One Nation 2.5% (down one). The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the previous two weekends, from a sample of 2747.
The accompanying release takes a deep dive into gender breakdowns in light of recent events, as The Australian did yesterday with recent Newspoll data, which you can read about as an update at the bottom of this post. Whereas The Australian came up empty, Morgan tells us of a 4.3% differential in Coalition two-party preferred between April 2020 and early February (53.5% among men, 49.3% among women), but a 6.2% differential since late February (52.8% among men, 46.5% among women).
There is also the regular fortnightly Essential Research poll which includes the pollster’s monthly reading of leadership ratings. These have Scott Morrison down three on approval to 62% and up one on approval to 29%, Anthony Albanese up one to 41% and down one to 32%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 52-24 to 52-26.
Concerning recent rape allegations, 37% agree with Scott Morrison’s contention that an inquiry into the Christian Porter matter would “say the rule of law and our police are not competent to deal with these issues”, with 33% disagreeing. Sixty-seven per cent felt it was “time women were believed when they say they have been assaulted”, but 62% also felt that “because the charge of rape is so serious, the burden of proof needs to be high” – a difficult circle to square. Fifty-five per cent felt there needed to be an independent investigation compared with 45% who favoured an alternative proposition that “the police has said they will not be pressing charges and that should be the end of the matter”.
Regular questions on COVID-19 management find federal and state governments recovering ground that most had lost in the previous result a fortnight ago. The federal government’s good rating is up eight to 70% and its poor rating is down two to 12%. For the state governments, New South Wales’ good rating is up three to 75%, Victoria’s is up thirteen to 62%, Queensland is up two to 75%, Western Australia is up six to 91% and South Australia is up to 85%. For the small states especially, caution is required due to small sample sizes (though the WA result may be the highest yet recorded anywhere, which would be neat timing if so).
Also featured is an occasional suite of questions on trust in institutions, which finds 66% expressing a lot of or some trust in state and territory governments, up six points six August, and 72% doing so for border security agencies, up five. Other institutions record little change except the print media, which already rated poorly and is now down four points to 35%. The poll also found 38% support for an aged care levy with 30% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1124.
Newspoll, Essential and Roy Morgan between them have amounted to a healthy infusion of data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregates, which you can see summarised on the sidebar and in much greater detail here. Labor is now credited with a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, following a dead heat when the numbers were last updated three weeks ago.
It is definitely not a look by Simon Birmingham in doing an morrison on Kristina Keneally
I’m worried that there’s a tendency developing to suggest that women should be wrapped in cotton wool – again, treated differently.
Political discourse involves conflict – conflict of opinions, of policies, of viewpoints – and these conflicts have to be dealt with by anyone of any sex in politics.
Sexual violence is a different issue.
The suggestion that women should be treated in the world of political discourse differently to men suggests (subtly) that perhaps it’s not their place, they can’t cope with the pressure, they’d be ‘safer’ if they didn’t get involved.
All people should be treated with respect.
What women want – what they really, really want – is not to be subjected to unwanted sexual approaches (verbal or physical), no matter what sphere of life they’re in.
(Albo made the subtle point that some of the behaviour Flint objected to was not because of her sex – his own office has been vandalised and his staff harassed).
“but surely our government should be putting out specific warnings about the particular issues detected”
no, because so far no actual “issues” with the vaccine have been detected.
All they have found is a very slightly increased prevalence of a particular kind of blood clot after vaccination. But as the linked quora post pointed out, when there are literally hundreds of possible conditions/factors that are being monitored, its actually expected that at least one of these would show a statistically significant increase in prevalence after vaccination (and no doubt one or more that show a statistically significant decrease).
This will happen even if the vaccine is perfect. AZ may or may not be perfect, but we are currently about a million miles from establishing any clot-causing “issue” with the vaccine. So no, there is no justification for putting out any specific warnings about any issues that haven’t even been identified yet.
beguiledagain says:
Tuesday, March 16, 2021 at 11:33 am
lizzie says:
Tuesday, March 16, 2021 at 9:32 am
Sabra Lane
@SabraLane
·
42m
If all MPs are serious about reforming the culture, go further;
Fix Question time, axe Dorothy Dixers, make Ministers answer questions. All MPs – stop your waffling and repetitive spin – pls just answer the question, or say you won’t and move on.
——————————————————–
I’m not too sure what the current inquiry will come up with. But I have a simple four-point solution:
1. Questions have to be on matters of “pressing national necessity” in the words of another Parliament. That would eliminate Dixers. The Speaker would still be able to rule questions out of order.
2. Leaders of Opposition parties would have unlimited supplementary questions (if they also meet the requirements of the initial question).
3. Members would be allowed one supplementary.
4. Dixers would be replaced by Government “statements on motions,” at the opening of Question Time. Like questions, the subject matter would have to be of some urgency or statements of new government policy. Opposition parties would be able to respond briefly. And these statements and responses would not be counted as Question Time.
Now does anybody here really think that the next incoming Labor government will give up the present system which gives a lop-sided advantage in favor of the government. It would require a great deal of intestinal fortitude that I’m afraid is lacking.
I’d like to think so. But I think not.
——————————————————————–
After watching Question Time today, two additional requirements to clean it up were obvious.
The two-minute reply time is excessive. It just provides time for the government answerers to attack the Opposition instead of answering the question.
It seems that it was designed to accommodate Dixers asking “are there any alternative policies?”
That gambit would be prohibited if questions and answers were confined to matters of “urgent pressing necessity.” Banning the “alternative policies” Dixers would prevent Question Time being taken over with attacks by Ministers on the Opposition on policy issues.
I would allow questions to be limited to 45 seconds and answers to one and a half minutes. The answers of course would have to be relevant to the question.
It won’t be easy getting Labor, should they form government, to give up the political weapon that Question Time is now for the government of the day.
Is the Aus Gov Health website down? I getting ‘not found’ on Chrome and Safari.
…Fran shut up pretty quickly this morning after she asked Albo how he’d deal with an issue of sexual assault being reported, and he referred to a case where a staffer lost his job after an allegation was made.
The Coalition are only getting upset about themselves. They had an opportunity the other day (the same one Labor and everyone else had) to get upset on behalf of and along with everyone else. They declined.
They need to stop getting angry over the percieved unfair treatment they are receiving, and start getting angry over the disgusting treatment women are receiving.
They have made themselves the issue, made themselves part of the problem, because they are failing to do that.
Thea headline
Mistake ? 😆 😆 😆 😆 would you believe an integral ‘feature’ of this government ?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/17/valuer-tells-auditor-general-water-buyback-price-was-not-in-line-with-its-advice
Australia will send 8,000 doses of its COVID-19 vaccine supply to Papua New Guinea, in response to a worsening outbreak of the virus in the country.
Travel restrictions between Australia and Papua New Guinea will also be tightened, with a suspension of flights between Port Moresby and Cairns, and a ban on workers flying in and out of the country.
The federal government will also contact AstraZeneca and European authorities, seeking access to 1 million doses of the vaccine which are already on order, with the aim of sending them to PNG.
Further medical support will also be made available, including masks, gowns, gloves, ventilators and sanitiser.
Wyatt made a conscious decision to attend “that” rally. Accordingly, Labor should not support his appointment as GG – not that Morrison will be prime minister when
Hurley’s term expires. And it’s of interest to note that the
three bellicose ringleaders (Abbott, Bishop, B, Mirabella) have now slipped into obscurity, whereas Gillard is going gang-busters in her civic roles.
_________________________________
The “Crickey” article posted by left_e certainly goes to the crux of Porter’s character. If nothing comes from the
current issues, at least his ambition for higher office has been brought to a screaming halt. And I still think that he’ll bow out of politics, sooner than later.
_________________________________
As for Hayne’s second trial for rape, his counsel had no
choice other than to make reference to the complainant’s
injury, as upsetting to some that may be. And if the jury is hung (like his first trial) there’s little prospect of a 3rd.
Big A Adrian @ #103 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 9:53 am
So a big slab of Europe has suspended using AZ despite there being no issues?
This Astrazeneca blood clot issue reminds me the Gardasil vaccine and a study in India.
A relative indicated the study as a reason why he didn’t want his grand-daughters to get the vaccine.
The study tracked thousands of Indian girls for a few years after getting the Vaccine. 7 of the girls died and therefore the anti-vaxxers used that as confirmation the vaccine was unsafe.
The problem was the 7 girls died for unrelated reasons, from memory as follows:
1 x suicide.
2 x drowning
2 x domestic violence
1 x car accident
1 x unrelated medical causes (Cancer or some such)
I read somewhere the incidence percentage of blood clots for the Astrazeneca vaccine is less than the percentage of blood clots that occurs for woman taking the pill on a regular basis.
I just went through the eligibility checker and was able to get to the point where I was told I was eligible. I then went to book an appointment but every place was phone call only, I called a local clinic on the list to be told that they didn’t have any stock, were not sure when they would get stock and did I want to leave my phone number so they could book me in when the stock did eventually arrive.
GoldenSmaug @ #113 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 11:08 am
John Hopkins put the cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) rate in the ‘general population’ at 5 / million cf post AZ CVST rate 7 / 1.6 million in Germany.
ItzaDream @ #97 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 9:41 am
The way I read it the clot prevented drawing of blood from the brain, leading to increased pressure in the brain which in turn led to bleeding within the brain, which was abetted by the low platelets.
I don’t mind dixer questions as long as there is an equal number of questions for both the government backbench and the opposition. The real problem in QT is the shallowness of the answers because ministers have always been accursed by the opposition of not answering questions but unlike earlier parliaments the current generation of politicians are just boring with no notable wit or humor.
I had the misfortune to catch Nicole Flint’s rant on ABC radio in Adelaide this morning. The presenters did quiz Flint on the dubious nature of calling for a bipartisan commitment to ending a misogynist political culture by only criticising Labor politicians. Penny Wong has rightly objected.
Yet I would go further. GetUp and Extinction Rebellion have openly targeted Flint with protests at her office. One person who stalked (repeatedly photographed) Flint was spoken to by police. That person was NOT a member of Getup or Extinction Rebellion. Both groups have objected to Flint’s characterisation of their protests, which they say (and have video to prove) were neither violent nor sexual in nature. This was accepted by SA police. Thisis NOT sexual harassment. I’m sure Getup and XR do hate Flint’s views, but they could not care less she is a woman.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/nicolle-flint-takes-aim-at-getup-over-election-stalker-campaign-abuse/news-story/c1e6b1d2836a5b4e476d628783769bd1
In short, Flint is trying to distract attention from the Liberal party by saying both sides are the same. She does this by conflating peaceful protests with sexual harassment, and by conflating the behaviour of two left wing groups that sometimes criticise Labor with the Labor party. She is talking rubbish.
I should declare a bias: I have sometimes donated funds to and participated in Getup in SA. Yet for this reason I know from experience that SA Getup explicitly instructs all volunteers never to be physically aggressive or abusive when protesting. They absolutely prohibit sexist (or racist) abuse by volunteers.
Can someone tell me why women complaining about being harassed by Liberal MPs and staffers are automatically believed (just on the basis of having made an allegation, before their evidence is tested), but women complaining about harassment by Labor/left people are told to “Prove it, or piss off” and are mocked as liars?
I ask this from the point of view of being a Labor supporter. Shouldn’t politically tribal responses be put to one side in matters such as Nicole Flint’s, and her allegations respected, instead of being summarily dismissed?
I note that Flint seemed to be readily believed around here when it was thought she was retiring from politics due to harassment from the ranks of her own party. But when her allegations turned out to be at Labor, suddenly it’s all spin and bullshit.
mexican
I’m sure that MickMack thinks he’s funny!!
DN”They need to stop getting angry over the percieved unfair treatment they are receiving, and start getting angry over the disgusting treatment women are receiving.”
The problem is that this government’s raison d’être is cynical transactional and ‘look over there’ point scoring. Actually dealing with real issues for the good of the country just isn’t in their nature. Well actually it kinda was for a brief period during the peak of the pandemic crisis early last year. They actually did start focusing on the national interest and largely put partisan politics aside. And Morrisson was rewarded for that in the polls. Of course that didn’t last long, and they are back to their old “how can we make this important national issue benefit us politically” game.
BB
That is a big part of the problem because partisan types always see the problem as only existing on the otherside. Culturally our politics is not in a good place and that is why most people turn off or pretend to be disinterested.
“So a big slab of Europe has suspended using AZ despite there being no issues?”
no issues so far *detected*,
Indeed they have.
Knee jerk and completely unnecessary.
Mexicanbeemer @ #117 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 10:15 am
I remember listening to HOR question time in the late 1960s and early 1970s. There was cut and thrust, wit, and real mistakes and scandals were unearthed. Oppositions specialised in ambushing the government. Now questions from both sides are boringly predictable.
Big A Adrian @ #123 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 10:21 am
And what if it’s not? Can I sue Big A Adrian for misleading me? Wish I had your omniscience.
ajm @ #116 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 11:15 am
Multifactorial then, like everything (the rule of seven). The next question then is this happening in people with low platelet counts already (and usually a bleeding tendency, past a certain threshold) if that could ever be determined – these are really small numbers, comparable to the general population incidence.
ajm
Agreed. And this says a lot about the attitude in our government that we’re all idiots. Ok, some people are, but there’s lots of people who could use more information. Compare and contrast to the messaging of the New Zealand government that is very honest, open and down to earth.
I’m not surprised about the PNG outbreak.
The numbers in Papua Province, Indonesia, bordering PNG, have spiked, whilst those in West Papua remain relatively low.
Papua and PNG have lots of mining and many FIFO workers which presents a major risk regarding the virus getting into those regions.
For me it highlights a problem in many developing countries where the systems and infrastructure do not exist to pick up these outbreaks quickly.
Africa represents another region where this is especially relevant and as a result it is unclear what the true situation regarding the pandemic is there.
… and far too rhetorical in nature along the “… and doesn’t this once again prove the Minister hates Australia?”, to which the Minister replies, “I’m glad the Shadow Minister asked me about Australia…”
ItzaDream @ #105 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 10:54 am
Worked fine for me just now.
https://my.gov.au/LoginServices/main/login?execution=e1s1
Time for lunch and afternoon nap.
Bushfire Bill says:
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 11:16 am
Shouldn’t politically tribal responses be put to one side in matters such as Nicole Flint’s, and her allegations respected, instead of being summarily dismissed?
————
Problem is under the new code by Morrison these allegations should be made to the police not in the media, by attacking the opposition of the libs/nats this is more partisan political attack.
Also Morrison again has breach his own code by continue to make these allegations in the media
Thankyou lizzie @7:49 for the AZ thread.
A fair summary?
– Younger folk have been affected, not the most at risk oldies.
– In 1.6 million vaccinations 1 thrombosis was expected, 5 didn’t trigger a suspension, but 7 did. What are the confidence limits on the underlying statistics? (What does “well above” mean? How often do 5 and 7 thrombosis events occur “naturally” per million population in that age group in 14 days?)
– They don’t actually know if AZ is problematic. With vaccinations now suspended how will they decide if AZ is safe or unsafe?
– If covid causes 45,000 deaths per 1.6 million (Germany is running at 2.8% mortality) should they have stopped vaccinations?
Bushfire Bill @ #119 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 10:16 am
Nicole Flint’s allegations have been well canvassed and I certainly believe that she has been upset by political protests against her and legitimately concerned about stalking which was shown not to be associated with the ALP or GetUp and addressed by the police. However, I don’t think politicians have a legitimate right to be free of political opposition.
If she came up with a suggestion that she had been sexually harassed by a Labor Party member I would certainly believe her in the first instance and urge that it be fully investigated.
How not to answer your own question, from the (now up again, thanks Kay Jay) Health Gov page
Is one type of COVID-19 vaccine more effective than another?
Providing access to safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines for everyone in Australia is a priority for the Australian Government. The TGA assesses all COVID-19 vaccines before they can be used in Australia.
The TGA will only register a vaccine if its benefits are much greater than its risks. This means every vaccine available in Australia has been proven to protect against COVID-19.
Clinical trials for the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines have shown that these 2 vaccines are effective in preventing:
development of COVID-19 symptoms and
protecting against severe disease.
These trials involve tens of thousands of participants worldwide.
I should say I’m in 1b, and will have whatever I’m offered as soon as I can.
So, it looks like that the next federal election will be in 2022, at the latest possible date…
Will that help the Coalition?… I doubt it.
Will a continuation of the downwards path for the Libs lead to a Friedhamburger challenge of ScuMo’s leadership?…. Possibly…..
“And what if it’s not? Can I sue Big A Adrian for misleading me? Wish I had your omniscience.”
How the hell could I possibly be misleading you?
Can you quote a single expert or study which even suggests that the AZ vaccine is causing the blood clots?
Do you seriously expect any and every vaccine program to halt every time a single risk factor (out of literally thousands) happens to have a statistically significant spike after the program commences – even though it would actually be statistically impossible for that *not* to happen for a perfect vaccine??
Stop being hysterical.
With Morrison playing politics with these allegations publicly in the media , if they are not true why doesn’t Get up , do a Christian Porter on Morrison and the Libs/nats media propaganda units
Flint seems to combine unrelated issues when coming to her conclusion.
The proposition is that there is no difference between Liberal and Labor when it comes to what might broadly be considered to be women issues (very often really men issues).
The obvious corollary to this proposition is that if someone defends Labor and attacks Liberal (or vice versa), they are being partisan.
My view is that Labor is not perfect but is streets ahead of the Coalition for the following broad reasons:
1. It is walking the talk with respect to political representation.
2. It is more likely to support wealth redistribution, noting that a systematic underpinning of women’s issues is poverty.
3. It is more likely to support social services of all kinds including in education and aged care. This matters disproportionately for women because of historic and current poverty traps.
4. Labor is far more likely to support parental leave and so on and so forth.
5. Labor is far more likely to support wages in ‘women’s’ industries: the caring industries.
6. Labor is not systematically corrupt. This matters significantly because a disproportionate amount of Coalition corruption benefits men.
7. Labor would not, like the Coalition, have sat on the 55 recommendations for 14 months while SFA happened.
I repeat, Labor is not perfect. The choice here is on-balance.
I am 100% certain that there was much historic and some current sexual harassment in Labor’s offices in the House on the Hill. I hope that this will end up costing some Labor politicians there careers. I am not confident it will.
In relation to Flint in particular there is no doubt at all that Flint (and the Coalition) are systematically politicizing her personal experience in a party political way. The main message the want to get across is ‘same old, same old’. In the particulars, it does seem as if she is misrepresenting reality so to do.
She is being aided and abetted by the Coalition and by the Murdoch elements of the MSM. It would be absurd to expect her political opponents to sit around and stay silent while this is happening.
SoKrates were you involved in the siege of the electoral office ?
Love the casual anti Semitism Alpo in making fun of people with Jewish surnames.
Bill
I agree all allegations should be taken seriously, and I am concerned there will be some valid complaints about behaviour of some people within Labor.
But my point was that Flint was raising her objections to being harassed in the context of sexual abuse when there was no evidence of a sexual aspect to the peaceful protests she objected to. She was conflating people holding up signs and chanting with sexual harassment and assault.
As said, the person who did stalk her was investigated and cautioned by police. He was not a member of Labor, Getup or XR. It was a separate issue. This was investigated and reported last year. It is not a new claim.
https://www.news.com.au/national/south-australia/penny-wong-blasts-nicolle-flints-sexist-campaign-claims/news-story/2a739e793f6b1d1f2069f98c2833266a
The big point which is being missed here
Not one of these alleged rape/sexaual assault/harassment /bullying cases have been Labor or former Labor staffers attacking Lib/nats
It has been former or current lib staffers who have made the allegations against Liberal party members
ACT has announced that it will start phase 1b on 22 March.
Lars
“SoKrates were you involved in the siege of the electoral office ?”
I did not have that honour; too busy with work. But I have seen video of the (non violent) protest. The “vandalism” in the “seige” extended to chalking slogans on the wall.
Your keyboard seems to have a broken K. You can get new ones at Officeworks. Hurry before Jobkeeper runs out.
***
Now someone can argue that the media are NOT working against Labor.
Corrupt Canberra.
Drain the swamp !!!
ELECTION NOW !!!
Morrison and his cronies claim rule of law , but shows once again the rule of law does not count for those who are non political align with the Liberal & national partys.
So much parsing of Flint’s allegations.
She’s mixing them up; no one can be sure who it was; she’s just politicising the issue; these are new; it wasn’t rape, just sexist and misogynist etc. etc.
I saw no such doubt or hair-splitting with “Kate’s” or Higgins’s allegations. In fact any doubts expressed about either were met with “White Male” denunciations, or worse (people called maggots, rapists etc.) for suggesting their allegations should be subject to routine investigation processes, rather than special tribunals.
There are definite double standards at play. This will probably be denied with more epithets, but the two approaches are plain to see.
One is: “Always believe the victim. She has been through hell.”
The other: “Just a cheap political stunt.”
What’s it to be?