Roy Morgan and Essential Research polls

A new federal poll from Roy Morgan records a narrower Labor lead than Newspoll, but an apparently wider gender gap.

Two further polls in the wake of the weekend Newspoll, including voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan and its regularly conducted but irregularly published federal polling series. This shows Labor with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, unchanged from the last such poll a month ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 34.5% (unchanged), Greens 12.5% (down half a point) and One Nation 2.5% (down one). The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the previous two weekends, from a sample of 2747.

The accompanying release takes a deep dive into gender breakdowns in light of recent events, as The Australian did yesterday with recent Newspoll data, which you can read about as an update at the bottom of this post. Whereas The Australian came up empty, Morgan tells us of a 4.3% differential in Coalition two-party preferred between April 2020 and early February (53.5% among men, 49.3% among women), but a 6.2% differential since late February (52.8% among men, 46.5% among women).

There is also the regular fortnightly Essential Research poll which includes the pollster’s monthly reading of leadership ratings. These have Scott Morrison down three on approval to 62% and up one on approval to 29%, Anthony Albanese up one to 41% and down one to 32%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 52-24 to 52-26.

Concerning recent rape allegations, 37% agree with Scott Morrison’s contention that an inquiry into the Christian Porter matter would “say the rule of law and our police are not competent to deal with these issues”, with 33% disagreeing. Sixty-seven per cent felt it was “time women were believed when they say they have been assaulted”, but 62% also felt that “because the charge of rape is so serious, the burden of proof needs to be high” – a difficult circle to square. Fifty-five per cent felt there needed to be an independent investigation compared with 45% who favoured an alternative proposition that “the police has said they will not be pressing charges and that should be the end of the matter”.

Regular questions on COVID-19 management find federal and state governments recovering ground that most had lost in the previous result a fortnight ago. The federal government’s good rating is up eight to 70% and its poor rating is down two to 12%. For the state governments, New South Wales’ good rating is up three to 75%, Victoria’s is up thirteen to 62%, Queensland is up two to 75%, Western Australia is up six to 91% and South Australia is up to 85%. For the small states especially, caution is required due to small sample sizes (though the WA result may be the highest yet recorded anywhere, which would be neat timing if so).

Also featured is an occasional suite of questions on trust in institutions, which finds 66% expressing a lot of or some trust in state and territory governments, up six points six August, and 72% doing so for border security agencies, up five. Other institutions record little change except the print media, which already rated poorly and is now down four points to 35%. The poll also found 38% support for an aged care levy with 30% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1124.

Newspoll, Essential and Roy Morgan between them have amounted to a healthy infusion of data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregates, which you can see summarised on the sidebar and in much greater detail here. Labor is now credited with a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, following a dead heat when the numbers were last updated three weeks ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,519 comments on “Roy Morgan and Essential Research polls”

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  1. The rule of law.

    Federal judge admits ‘error’ as man sues him for being jailed over routine property dispute

    The controversial judge Salvatore Vasta has acknowledged he made errors and denied a father-of-two procedural fairness before sentencing him to 12 months’ imprisonment during a routine, relatively minor property dispute.

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2021/mar/17/federal-court-judge-admits-error-when-jailing-man-in-routine-property-dispute

  2. ItzaDream @ #90 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 10:26 am

    Cud Chewer @ #75 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 10:08 am

    So I woke up this morning to the news that Brendan’s web site is now taking bookings.

    I went to the web site. Clicked through the eligibility test. Sure enough, I’m in 1b.
    It then allows me to enter my address and choose a location.

    Problem is that the GP super clinic which is in the largest town anywhere near here isn’t one of the locations listed on the map. So, I rang up the GP clinic. The nice lady on the other end of the phone informed me that they’d be sending out invitations towards the end of the month.

    When I asked how do they choose who to invite and based on what information, I was informed that it would be based on what they have on file. So, they’re making up their own process. Not a good look.

    At this point she told me two things. One of those was that the GP super clinic was going to be registered with the government as a place of vaccination some time in the next couple of weeks. And then that they were still inquiring with (and no answer from) the government as to precisely what the eligibility criteria are regarding underlying health conditions. Whether the first is entirely dependent on the other is unclear.

    Plenty of other teensy medical practices have registered. Not this one. Not happy. My mum doesn’t need to prove underlying medical condition. She qualifies purely because of age. Yet my GP is stalling for what should be unrelated reasons.

    Its also clear that despite theoretically ordering 10+ million doses of Pfizer, those that need it the most (the elderly) in practice aren’t going to get it. Its also alarming that despite ordering 50+ million doses of Novavax (which by all accounts is a better vaccine than AZ) isn’t even getting a mention in the media.

    Fuck you, Brendan.

    A completely disoganised fuck up considering the time they had to (not) plan it. I haven’t been to the website but appreciate your report. I mentioned here a week or so ago that I’d read that they initially planned these super clinic vaccination centres, but that idea foundered on the impracticalities of patients having to re-register at a ‘new’ practice, and the time and costs involved by the providers. So they then were talking to GPs about the registration of established small local GPs as suitable venues – the patients are on the books, medical histories known (becoming glaringly more relevant of these side effects keep popping up, fatal or otherwise), etc. From what you are saying, it sounds like they are stuck somewhere in between. I’d also like to reiterate that from my perspective, I reckon the attachment to AZ is political, or cost, or both.

    OH is in 1b due to age, I may be due to underlying issues – diabetes, asthma and dilating aorta.
    We are seeing the GP tomorrow so will see what the situation is. Maybe get the flu vax out of the way now.

  3. Is there abusive/sexist behaviour directed at women within the Labor party ? – YES

    Is there abusive/sexist behaviour directed at women within the Liberal party ? – YES

    Too much partisan comment in Canberra at the moment, which is typical of the bubble.

    Kate Jenkins will clean it up thank goodness.

  4. Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 11:57 am
    So much parsing of Flint’s allegations.

    She’s mixing them up; no one can be sure who it was; she’s just politicising the issue etc. etc.

    —————
    Under Morrison own code
    if Nicole Flint has new evidence go to the police
    Other wise She ,Morrison and lib/nats media propaganda units are politicising it by attacking their political opponents ,

  5. There was plenty of parsing of Higgins.
    Don’t tell me you missed it?
    You must have been looking in the wrong direction.
    The peeps who were gutting (parsing) Higgins were the back room dirt boys who were backgrounding chapter and verse against Higgins and her current partner.

  6. ajm @ #125 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 11:25 am

    Big A Adrian @ #123 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 10:21 am

    “So a big slab of Europe has suspended using AZ despite there being no issues?”

    Indeed they have.

    Knee jerk and completely unnecessary.

    And what if it’s not? Can I sue Big A Adrian for misleading me? Wish I had your omniscience.

    Can not blame anyone for being confused and concerned about the AZ vaccine given all the drama in Europe.

    The rollout here is a disaster.

  8. laughtong @ #152 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 11:58 am

    ItzaDream @ #90 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 10:26 am

    Cud Chewer @ #75 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 10:08 am

    So I woke up this morning to the news that Brendan’s web site is now taking bookings.

    I went to the web site. Clicked through the eligibility test. Sure enough, I’m in 1b.
    It then allows me to enter my address and choose a location.

    Problem is that the GP super clinic which is in the largest town anywhere near here isn’t one of the locations listed on the map. So, I rang up the GP clinic. The nice lady on the other end of the phone informed me that they’d be sending out invitations towards the end of the month.

    When I asked how do they choose who to invite and based on what information, I was informed that it would be based on what they have on file. So, they’re making up their own process. Not a good look.

    At this point she told me two things. One of those was that the GP super clinic was going to be registered with the government as a place of vaccination some time in the next couple of weeks. And then that they were still inquiring with (and no answer from) the government as to precisely what the eligibility criteria are regarding underlying health conditions. Whether the first is entirely dependent on the other is unclear.

    Plenty of other teensy medical practices have registered. Not this one. Not happy. My mum doesn’t need to prove underlying medical condition. She qualifies purely because of age. Yet my GP is stalling for what should be unrelated reasons.

    Its also clear that despite theoretically ordering 10+ million doses of Pfizer, those that need it the most (the elderly) in practice aren’t going to get it. Its also alarming that despite ordering 50+ million doses of Novavax (which by all accounts is a better vaccine than AZ) isn’t even getting a mention in the media.

    Fuck you, Brendan.

    A completely disoganised fuck up considering the time they had to (not) plan it. I haven’t been to the website but appreciate your report. I mentioned here a week or so ago that I’d read that they initially planned these super clinic vaccination centres, but that idea foundered on the impracticalities of patients having to re-register at a ‘new’ practice, and the time and costs involved by the providers. So they then were talking to GPs about the registration of established small local GPs as suitable venues – the patients are on the books, medical histories known (becoming glaringly more relevant of these side effects keep popping up, fatal or otherwise), etc. From what you are saying, it sounds like they are stuck somewhere in between. I’d also like to reiterate that from my perspective, I reckon the attachment to AZ is political, or cost, or both.

    OH is in 1b due to age, I may be due to underlying issues – diabetes, asthma and dilating aorta.
    We are seeing the GP tomorrow so will see what the situation is. Maybe get the flu vax out of the way now.

    I think you’re in 1b! I’m hoping MOH get into 1b because of pacemaker. All the best with tomorrow.

  9. Bushfire Bill @ #151 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 8:57 am

    So much parsing of Flint’s allegations.

    She’s mixing them up; no one can be sure who it was; she’s just politicising the issue etc. etc.

    I saw no such doubt with “Kate’s” or Higgins’s allegations. In fact any doubts expressed about either were met with “White Male” denunciations, or worse (people called maggots, rapists etc.) for suggesting their allegations should be subject to routine investigation processes, rather than special tribunals.

    There are definite double standards at play. This will probably be denied with more epithets, but the two approaches are plain to see.

    One is: “Always believe the victim. She has been through hell.”

    The other: “Just a cheap political stunt.”

    What’s it to be?

    Flint was stalked by a man.

    Disgraceful and totally unacceptable, and fortunately it seemingly has been dealt with by the police.

    What part of GetUp’s and Labor’s campaigning against her was beyond politics?

  10. ABC report says 4 cases of anaphylaxis after A-Z in Qld. Health report says Pfizer.

    It might be helpful if they all check their stories.

  11. The boyos who were parsing Higgins also did a chapter and verse parsing on Porter’s alleged victim. That blew up in PvO’s face, but hey, parsing can be a dangerous game when you sail anywhere near the Coalition Government.

    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.

  12. After the September 2013 federal election

    Newsltd and Lib/nats Rule of Law

    Royal commissions set up to get Kevin Rudd , Julia Gillard and Bill Shorten

    AFP illegal raids on Unions

    AFP raids on Labor offices

    AFP set onto who ever is class as a threat or enemy of the Lib/nats

  13. SoKrates can you post the video of the “peaceful protest” outside Flint’s office?

    Let People’s justice on Pollbludger decide whom is telling the truth?

  17. I suppose one day we might find out on what terms Kate’s dossier was delivered to the media and whether it has been handled in accordance with those terms (if any).

  18. Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas can stick his EV tax where the sun don’t shine.

    You just can’t trust anyone from the Labor right.

  19. Bushfire Bill:

    So much parsing of Flint’s allegations.

    She’s mixing them up; no one can be sure who it was; she’s just politicising the issue; these are new; it wasn’t rape, just sexist and misogynist etc. etc.

    I saw no such doubt or hair-splitting with “Kate’s” or Higgins’s allegations

    Ms Flint has chosen to be a politician by running for office, thus voluntarily putting herself in the line of fire, much as Ms Gillard did.

    The others you mention have not done this.

    I did not think it was possible to have a lesser sense of proportion than that exhibited by Mr Alan Jones, but I now must concede that I was wrong.

  20. You have to hand it to the Coalition, to Flint, and to the MSM.
    There were two five second grabs on the ABC midday news.
    The first was Morrison saving PNG from Covid and then pissing off before the MSM could ask him some real questions.
    The second was Albanese on the defensive in relation to Flint. Labor has had absolutely nothing to do with Flint’s travails in Adelaide.

    Brilliant!

    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.

  24. Itza

    Lovely sensible posts from Warrigal.

    This is a tired old cliché, but statistically, you’re more likely to be killed driving to the clinic.

    As Warrigal said, these cerebral venous thromboses are in a younger age group. Remember, venous pressures and flow rates can be relatively sluggish, the blood isn’t all rushing about madly like in arteries. And such thromboses are more often associated with distorted local conditions – anatomical aberations, or trauma.

    But what is weird, they are saying they are associated with low platelet counts. Platelets are the sticky little buggers that rush to the hole in a vessel and constitute the first rapid response plug (finger in the dyke) while the slower blood clotting system gets underway. Usually, low platelets means more prone to bleeding. (And vice versa). Aspirin prolongs bleeding time by interfering with platelet activity.

    If they are associated with a low platelet count, which sounds counterintuitive, then maybe the platelets are abnormal.

    Thanks for this, and to Warrigal and Lizzie.

    I got on to booking mum into the closest clinic this morning – looks like they specialise in vaccinations. We have an appointment for 31st March, and so have a week or too to watch what is going on.

    I had to fill in an online registration, with medical history. Her history looks worse now that I have included the family history. Of the 4 sisters, two have a history of pulmonary embolus (mum has had two episodes), and her other three sisters are on long-term anticoagulant treatment.

    She will be getting AZ, which seems the only option I can find, but we have been asked to provide full medical records. We will see her normal doctor tomorrow.

    Mum is 85, so she does not seem to be in the target age group for the weird cerebral thrombosis. Also, I am guessing her problem is an excess of platelets.

    I am surprised she was willing to go ahead, after a week of being adamant she would not, but has decided it is better than the risk of COVID.

    Of course the medical centre may decide she is not a suitable candidate for AZ. It would be nice to think if that is the case they will refer her to somewhere for Pfizer or some other sort, but I do not have strong hopes of this.

  29. @RBReich tweets

    Can’t help smiling when I think of our moving from Secretary of the Interior David Bernhardt (former oil and gas lobbyist and lawyer) to Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland. Progress, folks.

  30. @DanielBleakey tweets

    Not once have I seen the term “right wing activists” being used by the media to describe perpetrators of sexual abuse but today I’ve heard the term “left wing activists” used multiple times by journalists.

  32. Two women have made allegations of serious sexual assault against specific men. One wanted her case investigated, but took her own life before any proper investigation was undertaken.

    Another took time to try and deal with the attack she underwent in her preferred way, found it left her suffering, so went public to alert others to the dangers in her former workforce.

    One of these women has been attacked across massive media organisations because she cannot defend herself. Another has seen her partner driven from his job and been described by a Federal Government Minister as a lying cow. That minister has not been sanctioned in any way by her employer.

    Another woman made allegations years ago against public abuse from political pressure groups. That person has now resigned saying the protests forced her to quit. As she leaves she has blamed members of a third party (literally) not for being the source of the abuse but for not condemning it or those who were the source of the abuse, in strong enough terms.

    There is absolutely no equivalence here, None.

    It is an absolute insult to women who have been sexually assaulted to claim that there is.

    To say people who can clearly see the difference between alleged rape and political protest are applying double standards leaves me, frankly, staggered.

  34. What is kept quiet by Morrison and his cronies are those jobseekers who are in public housing lose $12.50 of the extra $50 fortnight in rent

    so instead of the $50 , they only get $37.50 extra

  35. Just catching the Health Report by Swan on RN from Monday.
    Dr David Berger didnt hold back. Accusing the government of almost Chinese like suppression of free speech wrt criticism of the Covid vaccination purchase and rollout. Swan questioned the validity of the comparison, and Berger didnt back down with (wtte) ‘we could lose our livelihood and go to jail for 12mths’.
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/healthreport/doctors-use-of-media-about-vaccination/13248600

  38. Late Riser @ #NaN Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 11:58 am

    The rule of law.

    Federal judge admits ‘error’ as man sues him for being jailed over routine property dispute

    The controversial judge Salvatore Vasta has acknowledged he made errors and denied a father-of-two procedural fairness before sentencing him to 12 months’ imprisonment during a routine, relatively minor property dispute.

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2021/mar/17/federal-court-judge-admits-error-when-jailing-man-in-routine-property-dispute

    Father of former federal LNP MP, Ross Vasta.

  39. @emmadegotardi tweets

    Good morning @NicolleFlint, I have seen your farewell speech calling for women’s safety to be above politics. Can we therefore count on your support in calling for an independent inquiry into the rape allegations against the Attorney-General?

  40. BW
    I’m sure Tories have a plans. Your other earlier post confirms it.

    Now unionism, rather than being a capacious vehicle, is taking the shape of a nationalism in its own right that is opposed to the others, including the emerging nationality of England.

    https://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2021/mar/15/westminster-uk-unionism-union-unit-nationalism

    I interpret that as the UK continuing to fragment. First it broke off from the EU. Now it’s breaking further. I’m not sure it applies (yet) to Australia. We’re more homogenous. We’re also less cocksure of ourselves in the world. (Our current PM notwithstanding.)

  41. Australian government’s Covid vaccine booking website hit by technical trouble at launch
    —————–

    Wonder if there will be the same attacks by newsltd and other libs/nats media propaganda units and the lib/nats on this , as they attacked Victoria Government website on the travel vouchers

  42. [‘Over the past few days the Biden administration’s most senior foreign policy and national security advisers have conducted a blitzkrieg of meetings with Asia-Pacific allies as a prelude to the administration’s first face-to-face meetings with their Chinese counterparts on Thursday.

    There’s little doubt that the meetings, both virtual and in-person get-togethers spearheaded by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, were meant to send a message to China that the US has resumed the Obama administration’s “pivot to Asia” that was so rudely interrupted by the erratic diplomacy and trade policies of the Trump years.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/biden-sends-a-clear-message-to-china-ahead-of-first-face-to-face-meeting-20210317-p57bhm.html

    Almost full blame for China’s increasingly gung-ho policies can be sheeted home to the witless Trump, who was far more concerned with his hair than he was with geopolitics, the plight of China’s minorities. Trump’s appeasement can be compared to Chamberlain’s; Lindberg’s insularity had he run for president (see, Roth’s fictional account, “The plot against America”).

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/true-history-behind-plot-against-america-180974365/

  44. An article on the Conversation about sustaining the pressure on the government over treatment of women:

    Morrison’s strategy

    Recent polls show the government is under pressure. Many in the Coalition view the 48-52% two party-preferred deficit in the latest Newspoll as a good result, though, given the range of stories running against the government, including the slow COVID-19 vaccine roll out.

    The government’s position on the Higgins and Porter matters is underpinned by a few personal and political maxims to which Morrison holds fast.

    The first is that stonewalling nearly always works for him. The news cycle is his friend. Stalling has worked uniformly for Morrison with one exception: his disastrous handling of the 2020 bushfire crisis. Morrison would consider it the exception that proves the rule.

    Read more: View from The Hill: Christian Porter finds a target, and so does Brittany Higgins

    The second is, while some voters may be turned off by the Prime Minister’s empathy bypass, Morrison believes — as is the case with government policy on asylum seekers — few LNP supporters are likely to switch parties over it. They will prioritise other issues when casting their vote.

    https://theconversation.com/the-womens-march-was-a-huge-success-now-comes-the-hard-part-how-to-actually-get-something-done-157225

  46. Douglas and Milko @ #177 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 12:29 pm

    Itza,
    Are there some conditions associated with abnormal platelets? I have a vague memory that there are.

    Good luck tomorrow. Platelets usually too many or not enough, and much less frequently, and mostly hereditary, abnormal function – I’d need look them up, but about to jump in the car. With such a strong history, and family history, I wonder if she is on prophylactic anticoagulants, of which aspirin is very common, and easily orally given, but with risks and contraindications, particularly gastrointestinal bleeding. (I’m meant to be on aspirin per cardiologist, but tend to forget, as it’s nothing too serious.) My Mother in law is on daily injections (clexane) because she thrombosed from foot to pelvis in one leg as she lay there wondering if she really wanted to live, immobile bar the essentials, after moving into aged care. Update, at 90, she’s now going to dancing class, and the Japanese man keeps giving her jewellery. She’s had three husbands, so he’s in with a chance.

    All the best.

  47. Welfare is very important to women

    @WilkieMP tweets
    Labor has just voted against @AdamBandt’s amendment, which I seconded, to raise the #JobSeeker rate above the poverty line. Again it’s left to the crossbench to hold the Govt to account, while the ALP continue trying to walk both sides of the tracks #RaiseTheRate #auspol #politas

    Super helps but be in no doubt who ends up worse off
    ____________________
    Related

    @Politics_pr tweets

    Trump and the pandemic may have permanently destroyed the GOP’s trickle-down mythology
    https://www.rawstory.com/trump-and-the-19-may-have-permanently-destroyed-a-core-tenet-of-economic-conservatism-economist-joe-stiglitz/

  48. Nicole Flint made her claims/ allergations against labor in Parliament.

    Morrison, today, repeated those allegations at his presser outside of Parliament.

    How will labor respond today in QT ? How should labor respond in QT ?

    Should they question Morrison on those claims or let it slide ?

    I will leave that up to those with much superior political nouse and instincts than I.

  49. Now that we have two cases of covid being transmitted without physical contact or close proximity, isn’t it time for Kerry Chant to stop acting bewildered and accept that the virus can be transmitted through aerosol?

    Also, doesn’t this point to a weakness in our border? Shouldn’t we also be vaccinating people who arrive from overseas and stay in HQ? Rather than just staff.

  50. Roaldan @ #NaN Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 12:46 pm

    Two women have made allegations of serious sexual assault against specific men. One wanted her case investigated, but took her own life before any proper investigation was undertaken.

    Another took time to try and deal with the attack she underwent in her preferred way, found it left her suffering, so went public to alert others to the dangers in her former workforce.

    One of these women has been attacked across massive media organisations because she cannot defend herself. Another has seen her partner driven from his job and been described by a Federal Government Minister as a lying cow. That minister has not been sanctioned in any way by her employer.

    Another woman made allegations years ago against public abuse from political pressure groups. That person has now resigned saying the protests forced her to quit. As she leaves she has blamed members of a third party (literally) not for being the source of the abuse but for not condemning it or those who were the source of the abuse, in strong enough terms.

    There is absolutely no equivalence here, None.

    It is an absolute insult to women who have been sexually assaulted to claim that there is.

    To say people who can clearly see the difference between alleged rape and political protest are applying double standards leaves me, frankly, staggered.

    Yet you have Bushfire Bill today trying to create a false equivalence between the allegations made by Brittany Higgins, KT, and the weird way Nicole Flint has conflated harassment by a male with sexual harassment, not to mention unsubstantiated allegations against Bill Shorten being bandied about by Liberals on a regular basis, and the way we have rightly condemned those who are standing by alleged rapists, with our supposed silence about allegations made in respect of certain Labor people.

    Well, Bushfire Bill must be losing his marbles, or he just doesn’t care about being factual in his quest to create this false equivalence argument, but I, for one, and likely others here, immediately read all the contributions on the facebook page made by Labor staffers and others, and just as immediately identified at least one case which seemed to me like a rape and appropriately condemned it in the strongest terms.

    Now, Bushfire Bill has a way with the verbal flourish that is able to beguile and almost make you question yourself. However, in this instance, it’s just bullshit. Not only that but he appears to have no shame about this issue as he crafts all his responses with respect to it around his preferred narrative with no reference to the truth. What unmitigated gall.

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