Two further polls in the wake of the weekend Newspoll, including voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan and its regularly conducted but irregularly published federal polling series. This shows Labor with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, unchanged from the last such poll a month ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 34.5% (unchanged), Greens 12.5% (down half a point) and One Nation 2.5% (down one). The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the previous two weekends, from a sample of 2747.
The accompanying release takes a deep dive into gender breakdowns in light of recent events, as The Australian did yesterday with recent Newspoll data, which you can read about as an update at the bottom of this post. Whereas The Australian came up empty, Morgan tells us of a 4.3% differential in Coalition two-party preferred between April 2020 and early February (53.5% among men, 49.3% among women), but a 6.2% differential since late February (52.8% among men, 46.5% among women).
There is also the regular fortnightly Essential Research poll which includes the pollster’s monthly reading of leadership ratings. These have Scott Morrison down three on approval to 62% and up one on approval to 29%, Anthony Albanese up one to 41% and down one to 32%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 52-24 to 52-26.
Concerning recent rape allegations, 37% agree with Scott Morrison’s contention that an inquiry into the Christian Porter matter would “say the rule of law and our police are not competent to deal with these issues”, with 33% disagreeing. Sixty-seven per cent felt it was “time women were believed when they say they have been assaulted”, but 62% also felt that “because the charge of rape is so serious, the burden of proof needs to be high” – a difficult circle to square. Fifty-five per cent felt there needed to be an independent investigation compared with 45% who favoured an alternative proposition that “the police has said they will not be pressing charges and that should be the end of the matter”.
Regular questions on COVID-19 management find federal and state governments recovering ground that most had lost in the previous result a fortnight ago. The federal government’s good rating is up eight to 70% and its poor rating is down two to 12%. For the state governments, New South Wales’ good rating is up three to 75%, Victoria’s is up thirteen to 62%, Queensland is up two to 75%, Western Australia is up six to 91% and South Australia is up to 85%. For the small states especially, caution is required due to small sample sizes (though the WA result may be the highest yet recorded anywhere, which would be neat timing if so).
Also featured is an occasional suite of questions on trust in institutions, which finds 66% expressing a lot of or some trust in state and territory governments, up six points six August, and 72% doing so for border security agencies, up five. Other institutions record little change except the print media, which already rated poorly and is now down four points to 35%. The poll also found 38% support for an aged care levy with 30% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1124.
Newspoll, Essential and Roy Morgan between them have amounted to a healthy infusion of data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregates, which you can see summarised on the sidebar and in much greater detail here. Labor is now credited with a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, following a dead heat when the numbers were last updated three weeks ago.
Mavis:
Perhaps Billy Snedden has risen from the grave to post on Poll Bludger.
My South Australian charity bicycle riding brother-in-law by marriage speeding through Snowtown at the moment
So as from tomorrow a million vaccines per week come out of CSL – is that still the case or do we have to reschedule that announcement?
There is no doubt about it, Xi was negligent when it came to enforcing regulations for the wild meats part of the wet market system.
You would think that, using the old pay-for-your-own-bullet scheme, he would have had it under control had he wanted to.
Sshh! dave! N and Zerlo will be down on you like a ton of bricks accusing you of Sinophobia for posting that! 😆
And Earlwood will tell you that it doesn’t matter anyway because Trade with China is way more important! 😆
Kirky says:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 3:48 pm
So as from tomorrow a million vaccines per week come out of CSL – is that still the case or do we have to reschedule that announcement?
Build up over the following weeks is the latest announcement.
Asha Leu:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 3:42 pm
[‘Perhaps Billy Snedden has risen from the grave to post on Poll Bludger.’]
Possibly if there is such a thing as reincarnation. He did go out with a bang though:
[‘On 27 June 1987, just hours after attending John Howard’s election campaign launch, Snedden suffered a fatal heart attack at the Travelodge motel in Rushcutters Bay, Sydney, while having sex with an ex-girlfriend of his son Drew, identified only as “Wendy”. Melbourne newspaper The Truth headlined its report “Snedden died on the job”, while the Sydney Morning Herald reported that Snedden was wearing a condom and that “it was loaded”.
The press can be so cruel.
Evacuation order from NSW SES for people within the Western parts of Penrith to ‘evacuate the high danger area using the Memorial Avenue onto the Great western highway onto Victoria Bridge towards Emu Plains. Water is already entering the rear of properties along Ladbury Avenue.’
Mavis @ #2357 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 3:55 pm
Good grief Mavis. That was actually printed by the SMH?
Kirkysays: Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 3:48 pm
So as from tomorrow a million vaccines per week come out of CSL – is that still the case or do we have to reschedule that announcement?
*****************************************************
Me/OH booked in for the jab tomorrow afternoon – no word yet IF they even have the vaccine ( they knew/had NOTHING a day or so ago )
Fingers crossed – touch wood …..
Taz:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 4:03 pm
[‘Good grief Mavis. That was actually printed by the SMH?’]
That really surprised me too. It’s reported in his
wiki entry, so I guess it’s right. I do recall at the time of his death, he was the subject of much mirth,
not because he died but due to the manner of it and that Wendy was a former girlfriend of his son, Drew.
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 2:32 pm
“How good was Rudd.
One minute he’s on the frontline with a shovel in front of the camera’s – nek minnit he’s tearing down Gillard for Abbott to take over.”
…………
The Brisbane flood was only 6 months after his own PMship was brought down. In some of the flood footage of him “holding a shovel” you can clearly see several daggers still sticking out of his back.
I am instituting an “up to” watch on the government’s announcements on the shipment of A-Z vaccine doses.
dave @ #2350 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 3:42 pm
Clearly, not in the minds of the sinophobes here.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/21/inexcusable-the-bushfire-survivors-blocked-from-rebuilding
MANILA (Reuters) – The Philippines expressed concern about hundreds of Chinese military vessels it said were spotted this month in the disputed South China Sea, the latest example of tension in the crucial waterway.
The Philippine Coast Guard reported that some 220 vessels, believed to be manned by Chinese maritime militia personnel, were seen moored in line formation at a reef on March 7, a cross-government task force said late on Saturday.
Foreign minister Teodoro Locsin, asked whether he would file a diplomatic protest over the ships’ presence, told a journalist on Twitter: “Only if the generals tell me. In my watch foreign policy is the fist in the iron glove of the armed forces.”
The National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea expressed concern about overfishing and destruction of the marine environment, as well as risks to safety of navigation.
China’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Sunday, and calls to the Chinese embassy in Manila seeking comment went unanswered.
An international tribunal in 2016 invalidated China’s claim to 90% of the South China Sea, but Beijing does not recognise the ruling. China in recent years has built islands in the disputed waters, putting air strips on some of them.
Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Brunei all claim parts of the sea.
In January, the Philippines protested a new Chinese law allowing its coastguard to fire on foreign vessels, describing it as a “threat of war”.
The United States has repeatedly denounced what it called China’s attempts to bully neighbours with competing interests, while Beijing has criticised Washington for what it calls interference in its internal affairs.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-china-southchinasea/philippines-says-220-chinese-militia-vessels-seen-in-disputed-waters-this-month-idUSKBN2BD02P?il=0
Still more announcements –
Australia May Review Quarantine Measures as More are Vaccinated
Australia may consider reducing its quarantine requirements and allowing returned travelers to isolate at home as more people receive the Covid-19 vaccine, according to Brendan Murphy, secretary of the Department of Health.
As vaccines are rolled out in Australia and around the world, the government will start to progressively review its border and quarantine measures, Murphy said.
“We might think about, for example, reducing the length of quarantine, a lot more home quarantine, particularly for vaccinated people,” Murphy said on Sky News’ Sunday Agenda program. “Our risk tolerance will change over the second half of this year.”
The first step is to reduce domestic restrictions, make sure state borders aren’t be closed and that officials are more confident responding to small outbreaks, he said.
Murphy said he is hopeful that “pretty good international travel will happen next year” but it’s difficult to predict what will happen with international borders because of unknowns surrounding the vaccines. There are still questions on how long protection will last with inoculations, and how effective they are at preventing asymptomatic transmission and against various strains of the virus, he said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-21/australia-may-review-quarantine-measures-as-more-are-vaccinated?srnd=premium-asia
Gladys and her emergency team are reassuring everyone that they can be confident in their predictions because of their “historical records” from 60-100 years ago. At least one person has already pointed out that the region’s built environment is quite different now.
Ref beguiledagain’s story on Maitland.
Arthur @ #2362 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 4:16 pm
The only thing wrong with his back was the lack of a spine to go to a DD.
lizzie @ #2368 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 4:28 pm
The only thing people should be confident of is Crooked Gladys cooking up a scheme to exploit the disaster to the benefit of her mates and donors.
dave @ #2367 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 4:27 pm
I wouldn’t trade one Brett Sutton for 10 Brendan Murphy’s.
guytaur @ #2341 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 3:06 pm
Reminds me of the old saying Tony Abbott used to trot out … “Sometimes it’s better to ask for forgiveness than permission” 🙁
… while Beijing has criticised Washington for what it calls interference in its internal affairs.
When did The Phillipines become an ‘internal’ part of China?
Not to mention the bald-faced hypocrisy of the Chinese who thought it aok to meddle in Australia’s internal affairs wrt the Afghanistan war crimes by the ADF.
Peter Hartcher on Insiders was very reasonable today. I’m sure he’ll never be on the program again.
dave says:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 4:25 pm
…
An international tribunal in 2016 invalidated China’s claim to 90% of the South China Sea, but Beijing does not recognise the ruling. China in recent years has built islands in the disputed waters, putting air strips on some of them.
…
There are some Bludger commentators who believe that Australia should resile in some fashion from the US Alliance (ANZUS lite?) and instead lead China along the path of international righteousness by way of China acceding to an international rules-based order.
Pipe meet dream?
The actual percentage of vaccinated Aussies is… what, exactly?
Divorced for reading too much.
Health Minister Hunt has announced that emergency supplies of tinea ointment have been rushed to low-lying parts of NSW.
#Nofungusonus.
Marrying Bette Davis?
Brave. Very brave.
‘south says:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 5:12 pm
Peter Hartcher on Insiders was very reasonable today.’
An excellent performance, IMO.
boerwar
If the MCG was packed to capacity 60 people would be vaccinated as of the 19th March……orrrrr 0.06%
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-02/charting-australias-covid-vaccine-rollout/13197518?nw=0
p
EVERY.SINGLE.
boerwar
That was for actual injections. Scotty is doing much better on the vaccine announcement score. We’ve pretty much reached ‘heard immunity’ for covid announcements.
boerwar
Looking at the chart it looks like the super important vaccinations become not so important on weekends.
poroti @ #2381 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 5:32 pm
The first of the two injections ?
If you wish to claim federal government assistance for loss caused by the floods (don’t expect to get it though):
Xi also gave an undertaking to Obama not militarize the built islands in the South China Sea – then he did exactly that.
Rick Morton
@SquigglyRick
From memory, I reckon I’ve reported on three “once in a century” floods or bushfires in my 15 year journalism career. Gold Coast circa 2006, 2013 around Grafton, the Black Summer bushfires. There are probably more, but these ones I remember. Wonder what it could be.
Combat Drones Made in China Are Coming to a Conflict Near You
A dozen years into its fight with the Islamic insurgent group Boko Haram, Nigeria is getting some new weapons: a pair of Wing Loong II drones from China. The deal is one of a growing number of sales by state-owned Aviation Industry Corp. of China (AVIC), which has exported scores of the aircraft. The United Arab Emirates has used AVIC drones in Libya’s civil war, Egypt has attacked rebels in Sinai with them, and Saudi-led troops have deployed them in Yemen.
AVIC’s growing expertise is paying off in improved quality, says Pawel Paszak, director of the China Monitor program at the Warsaw Institute, a think tank in the Polish capital. Although its drones don’t match the best offerings from American and Israeli companies, they’re increasingly competitive—and the price differential is significant: AVIC’s top drones run $1 million to $2 million apiece, vs. more than $15 million for a comparable American model. “Maybe Chinese drones aren’t as good as American drones,” Paszak says.
“But 15 drones instead of one, and without any fuss about human rights?
This is a good offer.”
Long article – Full story –
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-17/china-s-combat-drones-push-could-spark-a-global-arms-race?srnd=premium-asia
I was born because of the 1955 Maitland flood. They cancelled the night greyhounds at the showground.
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 6:07 pm
I was born because of the 1955 Maitland flood. They cancelled the night greyhounds at the showground.’
This is open to a variety of interpretations.
Good to see the Western Australian Liberal Party’s election performance inspired the NSW cricket team to emulate them.
‘dave says:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 6:07 pm
Combat Drones Made in China Are Coming to a Conflict Near You’
The Australian Left has been rather active in condemning the US use of drones.
I am confident that we will shortly see some visceral condemnations of China by the Left by way of the usual ethical-based balance.
‘dave says:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 6:01 pm
An international tribunal in 2016 invalidated China’s claim to 90% of the South China Sea, but Beijing does not recognise the ruling. China in recent years has built islands in the disputed waters, putting air strips on some of them.
Xi also gave an undertaking to Obama not militarize the built islands in the South China Sea – then he did exactly that.’
Xi lied? Tsk, tsk. I know a good idea. Let Australia lead China down the path of an international rules based order.
Back in the 1970’s I knew a lot of the key players in the 1970’s who had had roles to play in the Vestey’s Pastoral Empire.
Ruthless. Vicious.
This is a small matter of balance.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-21/darwin-beach-renamed-to-recognise-traditional-owners/13265652
‘poroti says:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 6:15 pm
Good to see the Western Australian Liberal Party’s election performance inspired the NSW cricket team to emulate them.’
All out for 2?
boerwar @ #2394 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 6:18 pm
I know a good idea. Let’s try and engage with China like a mature nation, instead of just mindless fear-mongering and then hiding behind the USA when thing go pear-shaped.
“Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 2:47 pm
Bandt has an important message…“
Bandt’s Twitter stream is a real ‘Job’s comforter’ to the many people suffering from the deluge and flooding – things might be crook for you now now but they are only going to get worse with global warming. And by the way, only the Greens have the answer.
dave,
The American armed drones are indeed very, very good.
So when it comes to what seems the inevitable battle between America and China, I know who I’m putting my money on.
boerwar
Close, there was a 2 in their score though 🙂
.
It is the Blues’ lowest total in NSW’s 129-year Sheffield Shield history and the fourth lowest total of all time in the domestic competition.
All out for 32: NSW rolled for record low in stunning Shield collapse
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/all-out-for-32-nsw-rolled-for-record-low-in-stunning-shield-collapse-20210321-p57co6.html