Two further polls in the wake of the weekend Newspoll, including voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan and its regularly conducted but irregularly published federal polling series. This shows Labor with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, unchanged from the last such poll a month ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 34.5% (unchanged), Greens 12.5% (down half a point) and One Nation 2.5% (down one). The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the previous two weekends, from a sample of 2747.
The accompanying release takes a deep dive into gender breakdowns in light of recent events, as The Australian did yesterday with recent Newspoll data, which you can read about as an update at the bottom of this post. Whereas The Australian came up empty, Morgan tells us of a 4.3% differential in Coalition two-party preferred between April 2020 and early February (53.5% among men, 49.3% among women), but a 6.2% differential since late February (52.8% among men, 46.5% among women).
There is also the regular fortnightly Essential Research poll which includes the pollster’s monthly reading of leadership ratings. These have Scott Morrison down three on approval to 62% and up one on approval to 29%, Anthony Albanese up one to 41% and down one to 32%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 52-24 to 52-26.
Concerning recent rape allegations, 37% agree with Scott Morrison’s contention that an inquiry into the Christian Porter matter would “say the rule of law and our police are not competent to deal with these issues”, with 33% disagreeing. Sixty-seven per cent felt it was “time women were believed when they say they have been assaulted”, but 62% also felt that “because the charge of rape is so serious, the burden of proof needs to be high” – a difficult circle to square. Fifty-five per cent felt there needed to be an independent investigation compared with 45% who favoured an alternative proposition that “the police has said they will not be pressing charges and that should be the end of the matter”.
Regular questions on COVID-19 management find federal and state governments recovering ground that most had lost in the previous result a fortnight ago. The federal government’s good rating is up eight to 70% and its poor rating is down two to 12%. For the state governments, New South Wales’ good rating is up three to 75%, Victoria’s is up thirteen to 62%, Queensland is up two to 75%, Western Australia is up six to 91% and South Australia is up to 85%. For the small states especially, caution is required due to small sample sizes (though the WA result may be the highest yet recorded anywhere, which would be neat timing if so).
Also featured is an occasional suite of questions on trust in institutions, which finds 66% expressing a lot of or some trust in state and territory governments, up six points six August, and 72% doing so for border security agencies, up five. Other institutions record little change except the print media, which already rated poorly and is now down four points to 35%. The poll also found 38% support for an aged care levy with 30% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1124.
Newspoll, Essential and Roy Morgan between them have amounted to a healthy infusion of data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregates, which you can see summarised on the sidebar and in much greater detail here. Labor is now credited with a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, following a dead heat when the numbers were last updated three weeks ago.
“Always bizzare that Greens supporters blame Labor for LNP policies – it’s almost as if they don’t realise that, with Greens support, the Coalition has been in government for 8 years.”
LNP policies become Labor policies too when Labor votes for them. Someone can’t just vote for something and then wash their hands of responsibility for it…
You seem to forget that the last time Labor was in government federally, it was only because the Greens and independents supported them. So in fact the opposite of what you say is true.
After all Labor introduced the original robodebt scheme – the Liberals merely fulfilled and perfected the vision.
Cat
You have a rational argument. However it’s sophistry.
An excuse not to fight. The scared of Murdoch argument.
Edit: To be clear as Rex suggested Labor could have used the Kier Starmer Labour approach of abstaining
And never forget who is tutoring The Greens on campaign and political tactics.
The Liberal Party.
guytaur says:
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 1:42 pm
…
You are still too scared of Murdoch
Nothing to do with Murdock, the Greens voted against any increase. It was stupid at any level.
An increase does not stop another if the numbers are there. The Greens voted for no increase and then carried on with their normal rubbish to make sure the numbers are never their.
The Greens are a blight on Australian politics.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 1:30 pm
beguiledagain
Thanks for the lecture but i already know how parliament works and how dixers are written by the minister or PMO.
————————————————
And you don’t “mind” a phony sham that makes a mockery of holding governments to account. Hmmm.
FredNK
No Labor voted for punishment.
You are shit scared of Murdoch. You don’t have the guts of Keir Starmer.
Not the radical left Jeremy Corbyn of the world.
It’s plainly obvious both Labor and the Greens made the WRONG call on the Jobseeker vote.
Partisans will never admit it though.
No, guytaur, it’s the truth. It is sophistry to suggest otherwise. The truth of the matter is that Adam Bandt and Andrew Wilkie are One Man Lower House Bands, unlikely to ever get anything up there. Especially with the more Conservative Cross Benchers on the Coalition’s side.
Rex Douglas @ #NaN Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 1:55 pm
Okay, so answer one simple question. Would you rather JobSeeker recipients got nothing?
Don’t skate around the truth of this matter, which is it was $50 a fortnight or $0.
guytaur,
The left always attacks itself!
The Coalition government is way way worse than labor. This is not a great vote. BUT, the greens peeling votes of labor in the lower house will do one thing only and that is make sure there’s more coalition government.
A real net negative for everyone.
I’m sure that if the ALP abstained today, the vote would still go the same way, and it would be spun by the coalition as the ALP choosing the impossible over the possible.
This is why the greens aren’t really progressive. They don’t want progress. They like protesting more than working.
Cat
Wrong. Labor did not have the guts to abstain. Labor voted for the government punitive measures.
Labor have given the Greens and others powerful political argument for same same.
All because of fear of nmedia narratives which is your argument of why Labor voted for it.
Cat
Here is a collective voice. A union voice. Not mine.
@Ausunemployment tweets
We thank @helenhainesindi, @AdamBandt, @MakeMayoMatter @zalisteggall + @WilkieMP for making a stand against government cruelty. We don’t know why it’s so hard for the ALP to do the same
#80aDay #BTPM
C@tmomma @ #258 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 1:58 pm
Are your eyes painted on ??
Read my previous comments.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 1:47 pm
After all Labor introduced the original robodebt scheme – the Liberals merely fulfilled and perfected the vision.
The Liberals are so incompetent they made changes to the matching of tax and unemployment records to create robodebt. They created a system that was illegal and created enormous hardship. Beating up on the poor that costs the budget money, that takes incompetence to a new level.
Now we have business and the reserve bank arguing for a solid increase in job seeker to save the economy.
Pffft to the economy , for the Liberals beating up on the poor is a greater priority, taking incompetence to a higher level again. Incompetence, the Liberals bravely pushing the limit.
Abstain from voting for a JobSeeker increase!?! No, of course they didn’t. 🙄
Would you also like to answer the simple question I asked Rex Douglas? A simple Yes or No will suffice.
Would you rather JobSeeker recipients get nothing?
Cat
I answered you. I posted the union opinion.
guytaur
Arguing hard for no increase. Easy to be brave when it is not you starving.
@helenhainesindi tweets
The goal of our welfare system should be to support those who can work to do so, and to support those who cannot work, to live in dignity. Cutting JobSeeker to extremely low rates achieves neither goal. I just voted with the crossbench to oppose these counterproductive cuts.
guytaur @ #NaN Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 2:04 pm
No, you posted A Union opinion. A self-interested Union’s opinion.
FredNK
I posted the union opinion. Not mine.
They represent those you claim are starving.
I struggled with myself before posting this and in the end I decided it’s genuinely interesting. (And not analogous to PB.)
Frednk @ #NaN Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 2:06 pm
Yes, he, like so many Greens and their supporters, obviously has NO money worries.
Cat
Yes a union that is self interested in representing the unemployed.
@Ausunemployment tweets
Edit: Sorry wrong text posted. This is intended text
We’ve been informed that Labor will not come up with a JobSeeker figure before the next election. People’s lives are being destroyed right now — and offering them no tangible hope is incredibly dangerous. Thanks to your lack of conviction, they’ll see no way out
guytaur says:
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 1:53 pm
FredNK
No Labor voted for punishment.
Labor voted for what was on offer, the Greens voted for nothing. The Greens don’t care, they just want to grandstand. The poor on the fire so the Greens can have a little Grand stand, climate, whatever, it is the Green’s way.
“Would you also like to answer the simple question I asked Rex Douglas?”
Your question has been answered multiple times by multiple people. You just don’t want to listen.
NO, Labor should not be voting for this terrible policy. It is an insult and will result in people on JobSeeker being worse off, not better off. It’s a Coalition con and Labor have fallen for it.
guytaur @ #NaN Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 2:08 pm
I know about the history of the AUWU, guytaur. They are hardly representative of those they seek to speak on behalf of. A bunch of privileged former Private School boys.
C@tmomma @ #264 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 2:03 pm
I’ve answered your questions in my previous comments.
guytaur says:
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 2:08 pm
FredNK
I posted the union opinion. Not mine.
They represent those you claim are starving.
Do they?
There is a substantial slab of the electorate that will not vote FOR a substantial increase in Jobseeker but they won’t vote AGAINST a government that implements such an increase, having been elected on other policies.
Nothing to do with Murdoch et al.
Applies in other policy areas as well.
Why do people here not understand this? Perhaps at least some of them are deliberately not understanding it.
Theo Andelini @ #NaN Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 2:11 pm
Okay, so you would prefer a vote for $0 increase to JobSeeker. Because that’s the only alternative on offer. $50 per fortnight or $0. As simple and as straightforward as that.
Labor aren’t the government. You casually forget that point in order to bolster the claims of Liberal-educated Greens politicians. Which does not surprise me at all. I’m sure that’s what the Liberals have taught them to do. Attack. Attack. Attack. Labor.
So there we have it.
Labor partisans are now attacking a union because it does not carry Labors water.
Stop being reasonable by asking those sorts of questions, Dandy 🙂
Right. Time to get back to Labor and Green bashing.
“Whatever happened to the Popular Front?”
“He is over there”
“SPLITTER!”
Are liberal party members on the backbench protesting against the prime minister ?
Dutton has quickly got up heading towards the back bench , others behind Morrison turning towards the back
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 2:11 pm
…
I know about the history of the AUWU, guytaur. They are hardly representative of those they seek to speak on behalf of. A bunch of privileged former Private School boys.
Are they another Liberal font, or are they like the Greens a bunch of twats that have never had to worry where their next meal is coming from.
This is related to the new AFL medical sub rule.
I guess AFLW and VFL/VFLW player safety isn’t as paramount for the AFL.
C@t
The union or the Labor front bench ?
Rex Douglas @ #NaN Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 2:12 pm
With a ridiculous alternative of Abstaining.
So that can only mean you don’t want the recipients of JobSeeker to get anything.
poroti @ #NaN Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 2:19 pm
The leaders of the AUWU.
Cat
If the motion got up the House motion would pass the budget test. The increase to $80 a day would happen.
Abstaining and not passing the motion means the government legislation gets up.
You are not being logical.
I urge twitter bludgers to consider tweeting this simple message.
#IStandWithLouiseMilligan
Abstentions and walkouts by MPs are not part of the Australian political culture, and thus do not have any impact.
In some other countries (mainly non English speaking) they are tactics which can attract support at the ballot box.
I’ve often thought it would be good if they worked the same way here, but they don’t.
Morrison who wanted the borders to remain open and people to live with the spread of the virus taking credit from the premiers of state/territories who closed the borders
“Okay, so you would prefer a vote for $0 increase to JobSeeker. Because that’s the only alternative on offer. $50 per fortnight or $0. As simple and as straightforward as that.”
No, what was on offer was an increase to $80 a day (Bandt’s amendment) which Labor voted against. Instead, Labor supported the Coalition’s disgraceful policy which will not result in any meaningful increase.
Yes, it would be better to leave it unchanged than to support the Coalition’s cruelty as Labor has. The policy will result in people being worse off than before. The pathetic rise won’t even cover the extra costs that are going to be imposed on people at the same time. It also gives Labor and the Coalition an excuse not to support a proper increase down the track.
‘Theo Andelini says:
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 1:12 pm
Disgraceful. Shame on the duopoly. This is them voting against raising JobSeeker to $80 a day. Instead, struggling people will now be left on just $44 a day thanks to the Coalition and Labor.
Well done to Bandt, Wilkie, Sharkie, Steggall and Haines for voting to keep people out of poverty.
The message is clear – vote for Greens or independents if you want a fairer Australia.’
This is one of the more disgraceful episodes in the life of the Greens.
They got what they deserved in WA.
With this sort of meretricious lying, more to come!
Frednk @ #NaN Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 2:16 pm
The latter. It’s a con which enables them to not get a real job and claim to represent the Unemployed. They’ve never achieved a thing for the Unemployed. It’s just a power trip for them.
The speaker of the house who lies ,says there is a general warning to all members of the house , that they will be named if they interject
Its a lie because there is no way the speaker will named liberal or national party members
No, what was on offer was an increase to $80 a day (Bandt’s amendment) which Labor voted against.
No, it was $0 or $50 per fortnight. The Coalition are the government, not little Adam Bandt.
Yes, it would be better to leave it unchanged than to support the Coalition’s cruelty as Labor has.
Whoah! Big call. And bookmarked.
I am sure Liberals are noting down the Labor partisan comments. Some great material for discrediting anyone seeking to represent unemployed people.