Roy Morgan and Essential Research polls

A new federal poll from Roy Morgan records a narrower Labor lead than Newspoll, but an apparently wider gender gap.

Two further polls in the wake of the weekend Newspoll, including voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan and its regularly conducted but irregularly published federal polling series. This shows Labor with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, unchanged from the last such poll a month ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 34.5% (unchanged), Greens 12.5% (down half a point) and One Nation 2.5% (down one). The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the previous two weekends, from a sample of 2747.

The accompanying release takes a deep dive into gender breakdowns in light of recent events, as The Australian did yesterday with recent Newspoll data, which you can read about as an update at the bottom of this post. Whereas The Australian came up empty, Morgan tells us of a 4.3% differential in Coalition two-party preferred between April 2020 and early February (53.5% among men, 49.3% among women), but a 6.2% differential since late February (52.8% among men, 46.5% among women).

There is also the regular fortnightly Essential Research poll which includes the pollster’s monthly reading of leadership ratings. These have Scott Morrison down three on approval to 62% and up one on approval to 29%, Anthony Albanese up one to 41% and down one to 32%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 52-24 to 52-26.

Concerning recent rape allegations, 37% agree with Scott Morrison’s contention that an inquiry into the Christian Porter matter would “say the rule of law and our police are not competent to deal with these issues”, with 33% disagreeing. Sixty-seven per cent felt it was “time women were believed when they say they have been assaulted”, but 62% also felt that “because the charge of rape is so serious, the burden of proof needs to be high” – a difficult circle to square. Fifty-five per cent felt there needed to be an independent investigation compared with 45% who favoured an alternative proposition that “the police has said they will not be pressing charges and that should be the end of the matter”.

Regular questions on COVID-19 management find federal and state governments recovering ground that most had lost in the previous result a fortnight ago. The federal government’s good rating is up eight to 70% and its poor rating is down two to 12%. For the state governments, New South Wales’ good rating is up three to 75%, Victoria’s is up thirteen to 62%, Queensland is up two to 75%, Western Australia is up six to 91% and South Australia is up to 85%. For the small states especially, caution is required due to small sample sizes (though the WA result may be the highest yet recorded anywhere, which would be neat timing if so).

Also featured is an occasional suite of questions on trust in institutions, which finds 66% expressing a lot of or some trust in state and territory governments, up six points six August, and 72% doing so for border security agencies, up five. Other institutions record little change except the print media, which already rated poorly and is now down four points to 35%. The poll also found 38% support for an aged care levy with 30% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1124.

Newspoll, Essential and Roy Morgan between them have amounted to a healthy infusion of data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregates, which you can see summarised on the sidebar and in much greater detail here. Labor is now credited with a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, following a dead heat when the numbers were last updated three weeks ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,519 comments on “Roy Morgan and Essential Research polls”

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  1. guytaur @ #NaN Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 2:22 pm

    Cat

    If the motion got up the House motion would pass the budget test. The increase to $80 a day would happen.

    Abstaining and not passing the motion means the government figure gets up.

    You are not being logical.

    That’s a very big ‘IF’ and you know it is a lie. It would never get the numbers in the Lower House.

  2. I’m very disappointed Bandt only proposed $80 increase. If you’re producing a figure that’s never going to eventuate, why not go big, say $800 ?

  3. “Whoah! Big call. And bookmarked.”

    By all means, remind everyone how Labor is supporting the Coalition’s cruelty. Go for it. Labor voted against $80 a day and for the Coalition’s policy of punishment which will leave people worse off. It’s as simple as that.

  4. ‘Quoll says:
    Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 1:16 pm

    With one of the biggest demographics being on jobseeker these days women over 50, it must be a bit galling to see that the govt doesn’t give a stuff and Labor will be waiving their miserable shit through when it comes to Jobseeker.’

    Fact: Labor wants a much bigger increase. Fact: Labor believes that any increase is better than no increase.
    Greens’ symmetrical big lie: Labor are bad because Labor does not want to increase JobSeeker.

    I wonder why the Western Australian vote was so jolly good for the Greens?

  5. poroti @ #NaN Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 2:34 pm

    C@tmomma
    Ah, it is just that there are so many among Labor, Scotch College, Geelong Grammar, Xavier College , all there

    And?

    My point is that the AUWU leaders are unrepresentative of the people they claim to champion. It’s all a power trip for them and a comfy sinecure they’ve carved out for themselves.

  6. Theo Andelini @ #NaN Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 2:38 pm

    “Whoah! Big call. And bookmarked.”

    By all means, remind everyone how Labor is supporting the Coalition’s cruelty. Go for it. Labor voted against $80 a day and for the Coalition’s policy of punishment which will leave people worse off. It’s as simple as that.

    No, that’s The Greens’ Big Lie.

    The truth is they refuse to vote for any increase. $0 or $50 per fortnight is all that is possible to be voted for. And achieved. The Greens voted against it.

  7. guytaur @ #NaN Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 2:31 pm

    I am sure Liberals are noting down the Labor partisan comments. Some great material for discrediting anyone seeking to represent unemployed people.

    And I’m sure the Unemployed will be finding out that The Greens would prefer to vote for $0 increase than something. Which is better than nothing.

  8. “The truth is they refuse to vote for any increase.”

    Incorrect. The Greens moved an amendment to increase JobSeeker to $80 a day and voted for it. Labor voted against a meaningful increase and for the Coalition’s cruelty which will leave people worse off.

  9. FredNK

    Are they another Liberal font, or are they like the Greens a bunch of twats that have never had to worry where their next meal is coming from.

    They used to be a very useful union, but now only campaign against the ALP, and for the Greens and Socialist Alliance. They have been taken over by activists from privileged backgrounds.

    Not that there is any thing particular wrong with that, but they want no progress until the voters do the right thing, elect a Greens government.

    Until then, the Coalition is just fine with them.

    I went to a meeting in Redfern hosted in 2004 by Jenny Leong. I was openly told that the activists do best when there are conservative governments in power.

    These people are using the poorest people as pawns in their political game.

  10. ‘Vogon Poet says:
    Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 2:36 pm

    I’m very disappointed Bandt only proposed $80 increase. If you’re producing a figure that’s never going to eventuate, why not go big, say $800 ?’

    Hell, why not make it $8000? If you are going to run on lies you might as well make them fair dinkum big lies.

  11. Try as I might to find any sort of sympathy for Nicolle Flint, I just cannot bring myself to do so. I remember as an Advertiser columnist she wrote an opinion piece about gay marriage. These were a dime a dozen back in the day and I remember the specifics of almost none of them. But hers still stands out in my mind for how particularly spiteful and vitriolic it was.

    Therefore when I hear her making comments like this:

    “What I say to the Labor Party today is they may not have held the spray can to vandalise my office with sexist slurs, they may not have held the camera pointed at me by the stalker or called me evil in GetUp’s phone calls, but they did create the environment in which hate could flourish,”

    it just makes my blood boil.

    As someone who was constantly taunted, beaten and ostracised for my sexuality as a school kid, I know a thing or two about bullying. I very much doubt she will ever see this but if she did I would say to her

    “You may not have held me down or thrown the punches, but you did create the environment in which hate could flourish.”

  12. ‘Dandy Murray says:
    Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 2:43 pm

    Perhaps if Texas had been a bit more N0rdic they would have weatherised their wind turbines?’

    A century and a half of breathing a mix of normal air and petrochemical vapours has ensured that Texans are Texans.

  13. Morrison and his cronies were hoping the political ploy by Nicole Flint , there would be no more questions about Brittany Higgins failed

  14. A mate of mine lived in Houston, Texas , for a number of years. The most polite people he’s met anywhere ( and he’s lived/worked in many countries ) he said.
    Why, I asked ?
    Because if you’re not they pull out a gun and shoot you.

  15. Douglas and Milko @ #NaN Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 2:46 pm

    FredNK

    Are they another Liberal font, or are they like the Greens a bunch of twats that have never had to worry where their next meal is coming from.

    They used to be a very useful union, but now only campaign against the ALP, and for the Greens and Socialist Alliance. They have been taken over by activists from privileged backgrounds.

    Not that there is any thing particular wrong with that, but they want no progress until the voters do the right thing, elect a Greens government.

    Until then, the Coalition is just fine with them.

    I went to a meeting in Redfern hosted in 2004 by Jenny Leong. I was openly told that the activists do best when there are conservative governments in power.

    These people are using the poorest people as pawns in their political game.

    You know it. I know it. THEY won’t admit it.

  16. Theo Andelinisays:
    Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 1:12 pm

    “Disgraceful. Shame on the duopoly. This is them voting against raising JobSeeker to $80 a day. Instead, struggling people will now be left on just $44 a day thanks to the Coalition and Labor.”

    ……………

    Good job with the weasel words.
    Nobody is going to be LEFT ON $44 a day, this admittedly shitty piece of legislation will RAISE the base rate to $44 a day.

    But Adam Bandt is a man with the ethics of a snake, and will vote against even a meagre $5 a day raise in order to maintain his idiotic sense of political purity.

    Disgraceful alright!
    Bandt would happily give our poorest a kick in the teeth and see them get nothing. Thank goodness he will never be in a position of actual authority.

  17. I went to a meeting in Redfern hosted in 2004 by Jenny Leong. I was openly told that the activists do best when there are conservative governments in power.

    Well DUH! Who do you think will be doing things most like to get people angry enough to be ‘active’ .

  18. “PB is as boring as QT today. Neither moving forward an inch.”

    I recommend watching the Senate, it’s almost always much more interesting than the House I reckon. QT is far more robust in the Senate because of the ability for Senators to ask follow-up supplementary questions. It makes it a lot harder for them to dodge questions when the questioner has the ability to follow-up and interrogate them further. Not that they still don’t try to dodge, of course.

  19. beguiledagain
    And you don’t “mind” a phony sham that makes a mockery of holding governments to account. Hmmm
    ————————–
    That is the oppositions job and the backbenchers have access to ministers to hold them to account.

  20. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 2:44 pm
    Cat

    Your big lie. Progressives must vote for LNP legislation now or there will be no increase.

    The preparatory lie is that the Greens are progressive. This is false. They are the dancing partners of the LNP.

  21. It would appear today that the LNP and the MSM are trying to alter the dominant view that the LNP are sexist against women and are harbouring MPs and staffers who should be held to account. The problem for Morrison and his team is that just muddying the waters and claiming Labor are same same might not work. Once a perception has really taken hold it is very hard to change the narrative and in many cases people will only accept they have the wrong view when it affects them directly.

    Whist working in aged care I often came across cases where both in relation to residents and staff a predominant narrative had taken hold and even providing proof this was an incorrect narrative, did not shift the public perception. For example I had a male resident who staff and relatives claimed was violent and needed to be moved to another site. The reality is you can’t kick a resident out till you find another placement and who wants anyone else’s problems. The interesting point was that when behavioural assessments were completed it was found that the man was not approaching the women and being aggressive, he was reacting to the women touching him, yelling at him or entering his room. When this was discussed with the families of the female residents, they refused to acknowledge that just as their Mum or wife had dementia and it was difficult to change her behaviour, it was equally difficult to stop him from reacting when they tried to adjust his clothing, or they entered his room or his space. Even the staff who had been trained and had noted that his behaviour was reactionary didn’t accept that he had as much right to stay as the women. I can also state categorically that this was not a one off, behavioural assessments and management often showed that the perceived problem was being pushed as something to be dealt with when in fact it was not going to resolve the issue because the underlying problem was not addressed.

    The reason this is a big problem politically is that what politicians do is not important, what they are perceived to do is what matters. Labor needs to get on the front foot and drive a narrative and perception that suits its agenda and stop trying to use facts to correct the record.

    Reading today’s news LNP is trying to make sexism same same even though Labor has started a process to hold their ministers and staffers accountable. The greens wanted Labor not to support the Jobseeker rise so they could have a narrative of we are on the side of the jobseekers but this would have resulted in giving the LNP a narrative that Labor didn’t support a rise in the payment. As the LNP narrative would have been well supported by the MSM I believe Labor was correct in its decision.

  22. “So according to the Greens pissants the poorest should suffer more and get no rise in benefits.”

    Gawd I’m tired of this inane argument.

    For labor there is a simple solution to solve the dilemma of not obstructing a miniscule raise while at the same time maintaining their criticism that it is too miniscule: simply abstain from the vote to pass Morrison’s miniscule raise. They wouldn’t be opposing it, nor would they give it the endorsement that voting for it would give it.

    Also, there is no reason for them not to vote for Greens or Wilkie motions to increase jobseeker above the poverty line – while at the same time not obstructing an actual increase, miniscule as it is.

  23. Scott Morrison confirms the government is reviewing the recommendation domestic violence victims can access their super, after very loud concerns it will leave (mostly) women worse off financially.— Amy Remeikis (@AmyRemeikis) March 17, 2021

    They’ve not a clue what the bloody hell they’re doing.

    Most incompetent and crooked Govt in Australia’s post-invasion history.

  24. Assantdj
    The problem Morrison has is the public are starting to, slowly, cotton on that he is a muddier of waters first, a conman second and someone who will do something for others (unless it benefits himself) very much last.
    So his efforts to distract and blame shift are being seen for what they are – nothingness from a do nothing who cares for nobody.

  25. The Chief Scientists endorsed AZ at the Press Club today.

    The only grab I picked up (I think – not 100% sure) was that in the trials the rate of clots in those receiving the treatment was less than the control.

  26. Labor voted to increase the benefit. The Greens voted against it. This is a binary choice. Yes/No. The Greens voted No. This is straight from Bob Brown Politician’s Almanac. The Greens will never willingly align themselves with Labor. Whenever possible they position themselves to blame/attack/deride Labor. I hope the day comes when Labor put them next to last on their HTV’s.

  27. I was wondering what wedge the Coalition and the Greens could possibly come up with.
    And HERE IT IS: Labor wants to keep the Jobseeker rate the same. Really.
    Congratulations to same old Morrison and same old Bandt!

  28. Theo Andelini says:
    Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 2:46 pm

    “The truth is they refuse to vote for any increase.”

    Incorrect. The Greens moved an amendment to increase JobSeeker to $80 a day and voted for it. Labor voted against a meaningful increase and for the Coalition’s cruelty which will leave people worse off.

    Ya and if it got up it would have gone back to the lower house and be voted down. I for one are happy that Labor did not put welfare recipients on the fire so the Greens can run another stunt.

    There is no doubt it should have been $80 as requested by the reserve bank and business, but the Greens and Liberals are more interested in pathetic little games.

  29. Theo Andelinisays:
    Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 1:30 pm

    “It actually is. The amendment moved by Bandt would have resulted in an increase of JobSeeker to $80 a day if it was passed. Labor voted against that and instead support the Coalition’s $44 a day.”

    ………….

    “If it was passed”.

    That is your problem right there, basic arithmetic. How Labor votes has real world consequences. Bandt on the other hand, can pretend all day long that one plus one equals three, and it matters not a bit.

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