Roy Morgan and Essential Research polls

A new federal poll from Roy Morgan records a narrower Labor lead than Newspoll, but an apparently wider gender gap.

Two further polls in the wake of the weekend Newspoll, including voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan and its regularly conducted but irregularly published federal polling series. This shows Labor with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, unchanged from the last such poll a month ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 34.5% (unchanged), Greens 12.5% (down half a point) and One Nation 2.5% (down one). The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the previous two weekends, from a sample of 2747.

The accompanying release takes a deep dive into gender breakdowns in light of recent events, as The Australian did yesterday with recent Newspoll data, which you can read about as an update at the bottom of this post. Whereas The Australian came up empty, Morgan tells us of a 4.3% differential in Coalition two-party preferred between April 2020 and early February (53.5% among men, 49.3% among women), but a 6.2% differential since late February (52.8% among men, 46.5% among women).

There is also the regular fortnightly Essential Research poll which includes the pollster’s monthly reading of leadership ratings. These have Scott Morrison down three on approval to 62% and up one on approval to 29%, Anthony Albanese up one to 41% and down one to 32%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 52-24 to 52-26.

Concerning recent rape allegations, 37% agree with Scott Morrison’s contention that an inquiry into the Christian Porter matter would “say the rule of law and our police are not competent to deal with these issues”, with 33% disagreeing. Sixty-seven per cent felt it was “time women were believed when they say they have been assaulted”, but 62% also felt that “because the charge of rape is so serious, the burden of proof needs to be high” – a difficult circle to square. Fifty-five per cent felt there needed to be an independent investigation compared with 45% who favoured an alternative proposition that “the police has said they will not be pressing charges and that should be the end of the matter”.

Regular questions on COVID-19 management find federal and state governments recovering ground that most had lost in the previous result a fortnight ago. The federal government’s good rating is up eight to 70% and its poor rating is down two to 12%. For the state governments, New South Wales’ good rating is up three to 75%, Victoria’s is up thirteen to 62%, Queensland is up two to 75%, Western Australia is up six to 91% and South Australia is up to 85%. For the small states especially, caution is required due to small sample sizes (though the WA result may be the highest yet recorded anywhere, which would be neat timing if so).

Also featured is an occasional suite of questions on trust in institutions, which finds 66% expressing a lot of or some trust in state and territory governments, up six points six August, and 72% doing so for border security agencies, up five. Other institutions record little change except the print media, which already rated poorly and is now down four points to 35%. The poll also found 38% support for an aged care levy with 30% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1124.

Newspoll, Essential and Roy Morgan between them have amounted to a healthy infusion of data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregates, which you can see summarised on the sidebar and in much greater detail here. Labor is now credited with a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, following a dead heat when the numbers were last updated three weeks ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,519 comments on “Roy Morgan and Essential Research polls”

Comments Page 9 of 51
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  1. Police have arrested two men and a 16-year-old boy as part of a joint counter-terrorism operation in Melbourne.

    Police will allege a 19-year-old Epping man attempted to engage in a terrorist act.

    A 20-year-old Epping man is still in custody, and a 16-year-old Pascoe Vale boy was released pending further inquiries, a police statement said.

  3. “In the real world.”

    In the real world, Labor has voted with the Coalition to punish the poor and give tax cuts to the rich elite.

    Meanwhile, the Greens have voted against tax cuts for the rich elite and for increasing the rate of JobSeeker to $80 a day.

  5. On the subject of government payments another area that needs to be addressed is the costs associated with ageing and health conditions that are not covered.
    Personally my husband and I are in a position that the $100 plus per week we spend at the chemist is affordable but I wonder how people on a pension manage this part of their budget. This is again something that is part of preventative health which Medicare could cover but when not addressed leads to health outcomes requiring hospitalisation at state cost.

  7. Morrison and the other LNP cowboys are just loving this ill conceived and thought out, unnecessary bunfight from their opposition.
    Congratulations dickheads!

  9. @shaunmicaleff tweets
    OK, I’ve worked it out. If Chris Uhlmann asks a question at 9:55am but published the PM’s answer at 9:19am, that means the press conference was held in a temporal loop & the PM had plenty of time to answer more questions instead of rushing off to take an international phone call.

  10. 6 to 10 inches of rain predicted in Sydney in next week.

    I am predicting the oddly timed Summer in Domain Three day festival may be a damp squib.

  12. grace pettigrew
    @broomstick33
    ·
    41s
    Karvelas is now asking why the #ALP does not apologise to Nicolle Flint .. we are now through the looking glass

    I’m afraid Richard Marles is too weak for this. He qualifies everything.

  14. @JodiMcKay tweets

    BREAKING: The NSW Upper House just voted 24-17 to refer Gladys Berejiklian to ICAC again. This referral relates to two more of Daryl Maguire’s schemes involving funding for the Cobb Highway near his investment properties in Ivanhoe, and land purchases by developers at Cawdor.

  15. Assantdj, because I too could afford to pay for my meds, I never considered the possibility of applying for a Commonwealth health care card.

    It turns out I will almost certainly be eligible for the card, even though not eligible for the age pension, when I retire.

    To be eligible as a couple you must be of retirement age and earn a combined income of less than $89,000 pa. There is no asset test, although you will be deemed to receive an income from those assets calculated at 2.25%pa. (Family Home not included.)

    You may already know about all this, and it may not apply to you, but if not, check it out. It’s on the Centrelink website.

  16. @andrewwhite tweets

    Labor: today was a meaningless stunt that stood for nothing

    Also Labor:

    @Ausunemployment tweets

    INCREDIBLE NEWS!!!

    @AustralianLabor just voted to urgently increase the JobSeekeer payment above the poverty line!

    THANK YOU @AlboMP @LindaBurneyMP, you cannot know how much this means to millions of people who rely on unemployment payments to live ❤️ #80aDay

  18. Goll

    Morrison and the other LNP cowboys are just loving this ill conceived and thought out, unnecessary bunfight from their opposition.
    Congratulations dickheads!

    ___________________________________

    I have to disagree. As others have pointed out, anything that separates Labor from the Greens is good news because it is utterly unusable by Scummo’s spinmeisters. They know that the press are not interested in Labor splitting with the Greens, only internal Labor splits or Labor getting into bed with the Greens to scare off the punters.

    While everyone has played up to the resident trolls by buying the bullshit meaningless Greens Senate motion, out in the real world not one voter in 100 will have any idea that this motion was ever put, let alone who voted for and against it.

    If most voters, especially almost all swinging voters, paid attention outside election time to what was going on Labor would have decades of unbroken rule. But that’s not the case.

    The big thing about the handling by the government of the sexual assault and harassment cases is that it has captured the attention of huge numbers of women, especially, who usually go no further than skimming headlines. And that is why Scummo’s usual deflections do not rate at all.

    But Greens stunts to make Labor look bad – nah!

  19. guytaur

    @shaunmicaleff tweets
    OK, I’ve worked it out. If Chris Uhlmann asks a question at 9:55am but published the PM’s answer at 9:19am, that means the press conference was held in a temporal loop & the PM had plenty of time to answer more questions instead of rushing off to take an international phone call.

    😀

  20. The Member for Boothby almost broke down in the House yesterday after claiming that Labor and GetUp played dirty at the last election; both entities she accused have denied knowledge thereof. She then proceeded to say: “I say to the Leader of the Opposition, I will not be lectured by you, I will not be lectured by your side of politics about the treatment of women in this place”.

    There’s little doubt that some do play dirty; that’s the nature of the beast. But when accusing Labor & GetUp, she should provide specific evidence that it was indeed those who stalked and harassed her – who, where, when.

  21. Sorry but what am I missing.

    Greens place Jobseeker amendment to $80- per day but the Opposition and crossbenchers don’t have the numbers in the Lower House which the Coalition do. How does it ever get passed into law? Seems a simple enough question.

  24. ‘Kirky says:
    Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 4:39 pm

    Sorry but what am I missing. ‘

    Easy: Greens abusing the suffering of the unemployed for their political gain.

  26. Mavis @ #NaN Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 4:39 pm

    The Member for Boothby almost broke down in the House yesterday after claiming that Labor and GetUp played dirty at the last election; both entities she accused have denied knowledge thereof. She then proceeded to say: “I say to the Leader of the Opposition, I will not be lectured by you, I will not be lectured by your side of politics about the treatment of women in this place”.

    There’s little doubt that some do play dirty; that’s the nature of the beast. But when accusing Labor & GetUp, she should provide specific evidence that it was indeed those who stalked and harassed her – who, where, when.

    It was one guy, with no link to Labor of GetUp and she was saying it in Cowards Castle under Parliamentary Privilege.

    Good to know the Liberals understand the resonance of the Misogyny Speech given by Labor’s first female PM, Julia Gillard, to this day. 🙂


  27. TPOF says:
    Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 4:34 pm
    …
    But Greens stunts to make Labor look bad – nah!

    If Labor had joined in with the stunt Morrison would have had great fun telling all that labor had stopped the job seeker increase. May not have put the bill back to the senate. Not as bad as the mess created by the Greens with there climate change stunts, but pretty bad for those on Job-seeker.

    The greens are a blight on Australian politics.

  30. Debbie Kilroy
    @DebKilroy

    How about we legislate to take the violent mans superannuation so the woman & children can secure safety
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    #auspol Stop punishing us & stop propping up violent men & institutions

    Yep.

  32. This photo says it all. These are the five MPs who voted to raise JobSeeker above the poverty line and voted against Labor and the Coalition’s cruelty. Well done to all of them.

    The Member for Melbourne, Adam Bandt

    The Member for Indi, Helen Haines

    The Member for Clark, Andrew Wilkie

    The Member for Mayo, Rebekha Sharkie

    The Member for Warringah, Zali Steggall

  35. God the vaccine rollout is a Hunt and Morrison shambles.
    All announcements and no jab.
    Having announced the vaccines for Australians dozens of times, Morrison is moving on to announcing vaccines for PNG.
    Good luck with that, PNG!

    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.THEY.FUCK.UP.

  36. Fulfio Sammut
    Both my husband and I have concession cards, I was referring to the cost of non medication needs and medication that is not on the PBS.
    As an example, I use a medicated nasal spray, it is $69 a script for a month, if I don’t use it I end up with a chest infection and need antibiotics and recently a trip to the hospital for sepsis.
    My husband has dietary supplements at $30 plus dollars a tin and goes through 3 tins a fortnight, if he doesn’t have the supplements he is malnourished because of his health conditions, not because he doesn’t have access to nourishing foods.
    The list of items that are health related and necessary has grown continually and I pity the people on low incomes who have no choice in whether they maintain their health or not. This is a prosperous country but only for some.

  37. Re Flint

    My guess is that she is leaving because she can’t cut the work and that her speech was just a job application to the Liberal Party machine to find a sinecure like they do for the boys who toe the line.

  38. David Shoebridge
    @ShoebridgeMLC
    ·
    31m
    I’m in the Chamber now seeking the release of all the documents relating to the NSW Police Strike Force Wyndarra failed requests to travel to SA to interview the victim of alleged rape – the answers we’ve got to date just doesn’t stack up #nswpol

    Happy to report we’ve had unanimous support for this. I will stay on the case.

  40. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 4:11 pm
    I’d like to see Bridget Archer move to the cross benches due to the Govt’s determination to torment Job seekers.
    —————-

    Bridget Archer is the female version of warren Entsch , Entsch claimed to be a advocate for same sex marriage never voted against the libs/nats to support same sex marriage

    Archer is the same but using welfare instead of same sex marriage

    Archer never voted against the welfare card , after she claimed she was against it

    she will not vote against mutual obligations

  44. She is blaming Labor for not supporting her when she was being harrassed.

    I am searching for a record of her stongly defending SHY when she was receiving threats etc. I will keep looking.

  46. I understand. I just hated to think that you were missing out on an available entitlement, that’s all.
    The Health Care Card will mean an extra $5000 or so pa to me in retirement, which I was not aware of.

  47. There is this doozy from her time at The Advertiser;

    Now, there are two ways to deal with these facts (female underrepresentation). There’s the method favoured by the Labor Party that imposes compulsory quotas. Under this system 40 per cent of winnable Labor seats are supposed to be given to women. That’s why Labor women are called ‘Quota Queens’. They’re not there because they are the best candidate, but because they are women.

    POW

  48. Look, if you need someone to volunteer to have a quiet word to Nicole, I’ll take the job.

    Perhaps that’s revealing too much.

  50. ‘Dandy Murray says:
    Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 5:07 pm

    Look, if you need someone to volunteer to have a quiet word to Nicole, I’ll take the job.

    Perhaps that’s revealing too much.’

    Not worth it. She’s a disgrace.

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