Click here for full results for the Legislative Assembly and here for the Legislative Council.
Monday evening update
I’m told buttons will be pressed on the Legislative Council counts today and/or tomorrow. The WAEC’s electorate results pages now have preference distributions for, I believe, all seats, and are headlined with two-candidate preferred totals, although these remain absent from the media feed and hence from my own results pages (for now at least).
Original post
As you can see above, I am now publishing results for the Legislative Council as well as the Legislative Assembly, although not a great deal remains to be counted in either case. The former exclusively features tables in which the ordinary votes are grouped by lower house electorate, which I hope someone out there finds useful. I have also restored to the Legislative Assembly display the two-candidate preferred counts that the WAEC removed from the system last week, which they did for all but a handful of seats (still excluded are eight other seats whose two-candidate preferred counts got pulled at an earlier time). Among other things, this means my statewide two-party preferred projection is now nearer to what should be the final result.
I’m not sure if there are any votes at all remaining to be added to the count for the Legislative Assembly, or if there are a few handfuls of postals still to come, but in no case is the result in doubt. There are 1,410,357 formal votes in the count for the Assembly, compared with 1,386,398 for the Council, suggesting there are only around 24,000 votes still to be added to the tallies for the latter.
With the few outstanding votes unlikely to change the party vote tallies, the greater point of interest is whether the 5% or so of ballot papers with below-the-line preferences end up overturning the ABC’s projections, which assume all votes to be above-the-line with preferences duly following the parties’ group voting tickets. That will not be known until the WAEC completes its data entry and presses the button on the preference distribution, which will be at the end of the week at the earliest.
The ABC’s projections will assuredly not be overturned in Agricultural region (three seats to Labor, two to the Nationals and one to the Liberals), Mining and Pastoral (four Labor, one Daylight Saving Party, one Liberal) and North Metropolitan (four Labor and two Liberal). That leaves some doubt over the following:
East Metropolitan. The ABC projection is five Labor and one Liberal, due to Legalise Cannabis dropping out at Count 19 with 3.16% to the Western Australia Party’s 3.22%. The question is whether Legalise Cannabis can close the gap through the below-the-line preferences of everyone other than Labor, Liberal, the Greens and Australian Christians: fifteen minor parties and independent groups who between them account for 8.48% of the vote, reducing to maybe about 0.7% when reduced to the below-the-line votes. If so, Labor’s fifth seat goes to Legalise Cannabis instead. Antony Green thinks this more likely than not, since preferences inflate the Western Australia Party from a primary vote of 0.80% to 3.22% at Count 19, whereas Legalise Cannabis goes from only 2.49% to 3.16%. This means there is a lot more potential for the projected WAP vote to leak away through below-the-line votes behaving differently from group voting tickets.
South Metropolitan. Brad Pettitt of the Greens has dropped out on the ABC projection, which has him excluded at Count 27 by the tiniest of margins: 6.67% to Labor’s 6.68%. That would produce a result of five Labor and one Liberal. However, the Greens typically outperforms projections that exclude consideration of below-the-line preferences, and Antony Green’s assessment is that Pettitt will more likely than not get up.
South West. I have been portraying this count as a game of musical chairs between Legalise Cannabis, the Nationals and Labor at Count 25 on the ABC projection, in which the loser will drop out and the last two seats will go to the other two. On that basis, Labor’s fourth candidate looks set to miss out, with the three parties’ vote shares at 14.72%, 14.29% and 13.76% respectively, producing a result of three Labor, one Liberal, one Legalise Cannabis and one Nationals. However, since the projection has Legalise Cannabis snowballing from a base primary vote of just 2.11%, there is considerable potential for the preference accumulation to dissipate through below-the-line votes. So much so indeed that Antony Green countenances not only the possibility of Legalise Cannabis dropping out at Count 25, in which case a fourth seat would go to Labor, but even for it to drop out at Count 23 behind Shooters Fishers and Farmers and the Greens. Should Legalise Cannabis go under at this point, the Nationals as well as Legalise Cannabis will miss out, and the result will be four Labor, one Liberal and one Shooters Fishers and Farmers.
Wow.
Here’s a question for trivia buffs: Mark McGowan copped 82.9% of the first preference vote. Is Rockingham now the safest seat State or Federal anywhere?
The Labor first preference vote is 60% and 2PP across the whole state is 69/31!! With compulsory voting and only 3.6% informal, around 65% of WA eligible adults preferenced Labor. That would not happen very often in Australian political history. I suspect it would rarely be eclipsed in a functional democracy with multi-party voting.
In the last century the highest US presidential vote share was Lyndon Johnson in 1964 with 61% of the votes, but with 62% turnout the percentage actually voting for him of those eligible was 38%.
‘Socrates says:
Wednesday, March 24, 2021 at 10:08 am
The Labor first preference vote is 60% and 2PP across the whole state is 69/31!! With compulsory voting and only 3.6% informal, around 65% of WA eligible adults preferenced Labor. That would not happen very often in Australian political history. I suspect it would rarely be eclipsed in a functional democracy with multi-party voting.
In the last century the highest US presidential vote share was Lyndon Johnson in 1964 with 61% of the votes, but with 62% turnout the percentage actually voting for him of those eligible was 38%.’
Chairman Xi, of the WA election result: ‘A western running dog nothingburger. Socialist democracy with special chinese characteristics trounces that result every single time.’
Is any further information available about when the LC “button” will be pressed? WAEC website implies it will be some time next week.
Am I missing something or can BTLs get the Greens up in North Metro?
It looks like 0.1 of a quota going against group tickets could slimly tip it.
@disasterboy
Their is 9,500 votes that are not accounted for in Count 27.
Australian Christians had 27,568. Only 18,068 are distributed. (I think it was stooping when the liberals got to the final quota)
The best thing to come out of the election is the complete wiping of the Greens from the WA Parliament.
Hey there Bucephalus…… you maybe correct that due to the Labor populist electoral “tsunami” that decimated the previous Liberal opposition and also damaged the Nationals; plus the undemocratic Legislative Council “above the line” registered how to vote quirk; that the Greens will lose their representation in the new WA Legislative Council.
However, while I hate to rain on your parade, the Greens will be back. People like yourself have bemoaned the Greens from day one more than 30 years ago, but despite ups and downs the Greens remain a positive force in the political scene across Australia. Just one example: while Labor has managed to change their long term “boys club” via quotas for women so that now 48% of federal Labor MPs are women; the Liberal Nationals – forever on the back foot when it comes to needed social change – without any quotas, have little over 20% of their federal MPs who are women. One has only to look at the gender composition of state and federal Greens MPs to see that they are streets ahead of both Labor and LNP when it comes to gender representation. Prior to the recent WA state election, 17 out of 30 Greens MPs were women. In all mainland states it was 50/50 male and female. In the Apple Isle at the state level it was 100% women. Political parties of all persuasions experience good and bad episodes.
Robert,
I really don’t care about the gender, race, sexual orientation or any other immutable characteristic of my Parliamentary representatives.
Let’s all of us spare a thought for all of the bored, one-term seat-warmers in caucus with no hope whatsoever of ever leaving the back bench.
Also Bucephalus, the problem that you and your Labor stooges create it that Labor is now a centrist party, and the Greens really are required to actually have an undiminished left-wing voice around the country. People vote Greens because they are the political party of their choice, and it is merely Labor’s failings that the Greens have not been snuffed out. Instead, the long march to the centre of politics meant the destruction of the Democrats, which meant losing a breed of clever and honest politicians of near ideological similarity. You now have the Greens, who are hostile to you, because your party has so few actual policies of note that weren’t completely copied from us, and because your party’s failings as of late in terms of actually sticking to Labor’s roots.
Ryan Spencer says:
Friday, March 26, 2021 at 3:33 pm
Also Bucephalus, the problem that you…
RS, Bucephalus is a reactionary, Labor-phobic Lib. Just like you, he desires the defeat of Labor. You and he are on the same page.
Bucephalus, you may not care about the various attributes of your parliamentary representatives.
However, for the good of our democracy I believe it is important that the make up of our parliaments should in good measure reflect the makeup of the wider population. Much to our loss, our parliaments do not include a good cross section of the community and I would suggest that we can see this being played out at great cost in the appalling behavior of male MPs that keeps coming to light week after week. I would encourage you to rethink your lack of concern as to the makeup of parliaments across Australia.
“Declarations for each Legislative Council region result should be completed by April 1”, says The West, which I guess means we have a few days to go before the buttons are pressed.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2021/state-election-2021-glenn-druery-set-for-huge-payday-after-daylight-saving-party-win-in-was-upper-house-ng-b881831723z?utm_campaign=share-icons&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&tid=1616736587099
Thanks William Bowe
Robert, I’d prefer that the best and brightest represented us but we pay a pittance and get very average candidates from all parties and allow dilettantes to throw their weight around.
By your metric we should only have people of average intelligence and not much achievement in general.
oh well tbh Liberals stole the Greens climate change policy and that worked well, didn’t it
Federal backbenchers are amongst the best paid in the world. I don’t keep track of state MPs but I expect they are fairly well paid as well. It was once true that MPs were not that well paid, but they have been giving themselves double digit payrises for decades now, while overall wage growth … has not been that.
Simon says:
Friday, March 26, 2021 at 9:38 pm
It’s a pittance compared to what the brightest and best get paid. A graduate Chemical Engineer makes $140,000.
Ryan Spencer says:
Friday, March 26, 2021 at 3:33 pm
….it is merely Labor’s failings that the Greens have not been snuffed out.
This is effectively “blaming Labor” for the persistence of the Greens. You might as well blame Labor for the existence of every other party too.
The facts are that the Greens position themselves to Labor’s portside all the time. If Labor were to hove their way, the Greens would tack further to port. The antagonistic nature of politics in fact drives Labor away from the Greens. The Green response, which is to obstruct Labor and to seek to prevent them winning elections, works to favour the Liberals. The Greens ride shotgun for the LNP. That’s their effective role in the arena. They are an anti-Labor and anti-worker voice. The sooner they dissolve themselves the better off we will all be.
Briefly, you’re a paranoid weirdo. Not worth more than 30 sec typing, so I can’t be bothered telling you why you’re broken in the head. Back to the Alma St fluffy room for you. Next to Frank C?
Bird of paradox says:
Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 12:56 am
Briefly, you’re a paranoid weirdo. Not worth more than 30 sec typing, so I can’t be bothered telling you why you’re broken in the head. Back to the Alma St fluffy room for you. Next to Frank C?
B-o-P, there is nothing weird or paranoid in my observations. On the contrary, they are factually based and reflect 25 years of observing the Greens, and, in particular, the absolutely nauseating sanctimony they bring to the table, which they use to gratify themselves and to berate Labor.
I should also add that the reference to Alma Street is disreputable. It is of a piece with the disdain the Greens generally reserve for Labor-positive bludgers. It is shameful. Furthermore, Frank C was (and remains) an intensely impassioned voice. There is no comparison between his rants and my posts. You are resorting to personal jibes in order protect your own prejudices. You should refrain from that if you wish to be taken seriously.
Here’s a question- had coronavirus not happened, what would McGowan have campaigned on? There’s nothing there. Sure he’s building a few train lines but that’s it.
With McGowan being a “safe centrist” he stood for nothing to maintain everything. Unfortunately Labor are so pre-occupied with themselves they don’t realise that voters on the far edges of Labor’s previous extremes will rarely vote for them anymore.
The Greens have been able to develop into a serious political force in the big cities and the Northern Rivers NSW, predominately because Labor’s policy positions are not things they support, and when Labor “wibble-wobble” on policies, voters feel the party is pandering to them. WHICH IS WHY THE GREENS EXIST!!
Political parties are created when voters no longer feel represented by any of the existing ones. With the Libs hovering between centre-right and right, and Labor operating between left-of-centre and centre, the Greens exist because Labor cannot cater to the left-wing voters.
The fact that we’re still discuss how to fix climate change is simply because Labor made too many deals with big oil and gas to keep their coffers filled. Get your stooges some original policies and we’ll wait in eager anticipation…
Also saying that we ride the coattails of the LNP is complete rubbish – when, where and how? we’ve been in a government with them once or twice, and the leaders the LNP had back in the 1990s were personable moderate Liberals, not whatever the hell the god squad is spewing out these days.
Ryan Spencer says:
Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 2:11 am
Also saying that we ride the coattails of the LNP is complete rubbish – when, where and how? we’ve been in a government with them once or twice, and the leaders the LNP had back in the 1990s were personable moderate Liberals, not whatever the hell the god squad is spewing out these days.
No-one asserts that the Gs ride on the coattails of the Liberals. The claim is that the Greens campaign against Labor 24./7. This has undermined Labor. That is the intended result. It’s not an accident. It’s a goal. The greens explicitly and proudly campaign to prevent labor winning elections and implementing their policies. They are a Labor-hostile party. This is not controversial. It’s a fact. They are Labor-phobic. In this they are on the same page as the Liberals.
N
As a Greens(WA) member who has been deeply involved in past elections. You are making delusional Labor is claims.
The Greens campaign for what they believe in. They will criticise Liberal and Labor and will co-operate with whoever help achieve their goals. Note for example preference swapping with Labor above Liberals in both houses. Hardly a Labor phobic arrangement.
They are not Labor-phobic factually. They are Labor critical. And practically all the things they criticise Labor for they criticise Liberal for. The list is long. Many times the Green parliamentarians have held both Labor and Liberal for anti worker behaviour.
You have made up a lot of baseless nonsense to give your team myths to justify a victim mentality. It’s very strange, especially after this election.
disasterboy says:
Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 2:38 pm
N
As a Greens(WA) member who has been deeply involved in past elections.
Stick to that script, d. The scene looks quite different from Labor’s perspective. We know you hate Labor. The Greens campaign against Labor at all times and in all places. This is indisputable.
One of the several deleterious consequences of G-campaigning has been the attrition of the Labor-positive plurality since the 1990s. This makes it very difficult for Labor to win elections and displace the LNP.
This is an outcome for which the Greens have worked ever since they were formed. This is an express goal of Bob Brown. It has been a goal of the Greens federally all along. Bandt re-stated the goal as recently as this week.
The Greens are an anti-Labor rally. They are Labor-phobic. They campaign against Labor at all times and in all places. True story.
‘Ryan Spencer says:
Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 2:11 am
Here’s a question- had coronavirus not happened, what would McGowan have campaigned on? There’s nothing there. Sure he’s building a few train lines but that’s it.
With McGowan being a “safe centrist” he stood for nothing to maintain everything. Unfortunately Labor are so pre-occupied with themselves they don’t realise that voters on the far edges of Labor’s previous extremes will rarely vote for them anymore.
The Greens have been able to develop into a serious political force in the big cities and the Northern Rivers NSW, predominately because Labor’s policy positions are not things they support, and when Labor “wibble-wobble” on policies, voters feel the party is pandering to them. WHICH IS WHY THE GREENS EXIST!!
Political parties are created when voters no longer feel represented by any of the existing ones. With the Libs hovering between centre-right and right, and Labor operating between left-of-centre and centre, the Greens exist because Labor cannot cater to the left-wing voters.
The fact that we’re still discuss how to fix climate change is simply because Labor made too many deals with big oil and gas to keep their coffers filled. Get your stooges some original policies and we’ll wait in eager anticipation…
Also saying that we ride the coattails of the LNP is complete rubbish – when, where and how? we’ve been in a government with them once or twice, and the leaders the LNP had back in the 1990s were personable moderate Liberals, not whatever the hell the god squad is spewing out these days.’
The Greens just lost 20% of their vote and most, if not all, of their sitting members in WA.
And they STILL reckon they are omniscient.
N
You don’t even seem to understand how our electoral system works.
The Greens in WA were not formed by Tasmanian Bob Brown. They coalesced around Senator Vallentine.
You just make up nonsense. Pretty much nothing that you post is based on facts.
So good luck to you. I just didn’t want to leave your delusions unchallenged.
Despite your assertions, you are doing the ALP no service. You really make the Greens seem even better.
Show me some evidence of your claimed single minded hatred by Bob Brown.
On the drop in Greens primary vote, note that it’s largely positioned in micro parties not in the last State Election. It’s not gone to the ALP. It appears to largely be in the Legalise Marijuana, Sustainable Australia, Animal Justice and so on…
Greens support did not collapse like the Liberal Party.
disasterboy says:
Saturday, March 27, 2021 at 8:09 pm
N
You don’t even seem to understand how our electoral system works.
I’m very well versed in the electoral system.
I also observe the day to day campaigning and the tenor of party messaging. On a day-t0-day basis the Greens campaign against Labor. Their language is Labor-hostile. Their positioning on issues is Labor-hostile. This is deliberately done because the Greens’ target market are disaffected but nominally Labor-positive voters. Their game is to foment grievance and set up conflict with Labor. This is very well rehearsed. A part of it is to always deny Labor any credit for anything. In this, Bob Brown and Tony Abbott were on a unity ticket. That ticket is still valid.
They also expressly aim to prevent Labor forming governments. This is a proudly declared ambition and a prominent part of their campaigning messages. The Greens are Labor-hostile. Full stop.
I must say, it’s rather bold of the spruikers of thr party of Jeremy Buckingham to lecture on gender equity.
But I suppose “Lack of Self Awareness” is tbe most central of the four pillars. After “NIMBYism”, “Gentrification” and “AUDI ownership”
3z
Cute. At least the Greens had a process, asked Jeremy Buckingham to resign the party and he did.
Cute. One minute the Greens are unprofessional uneducated hippies from the bottom of the garden . Next they’re upper middle class hypocrites.
Stereotypes are funny. It’s good to spot hypocrisy everywhere.
Legislative Council Results – For the future, may I suggest a new column showing quotas achieved, to say, 2 decimal places. This would provide a much quicker way to understand results. Such a column is commonly included in Tasmania and the ACT. It would be a useful standard feature for the Senate too.
Must be close to button time!
New thread.