Essential Research leadership ratings and preselection latest

A second pollster suggests Scott Morrison’s recent slump to have been short-lived, as Eric Abetz gets dumped from his customary position at the top of the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket.

First up, note two posts below this one dealing with ongoing electoral events: the resolution to the Tasmanian election count and the New South Wales state by-election for Upper Hunter on Saturday week.

The Guardian today reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes the monthly leadership ratings. As was the case with Newspoll, this finds Scott Morrison pulling out of the slump that followed the Brittany Higgins and Christian Porter episodes, with his approval up four to 58% and disapproval to five to 32%, without quite restoring him to the respective 62% and 29% he recorded in the March poll. The recovery has been particularly pronounced with women, among whom he is up nine points on approval to 55% and down eight on disapproval to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-28 to 50-24; Anthony Albanese’s ratings are said to be “constant compared to his standing last month”, when he had 39% approval and 34% disapproval.

The poll also finds 48% support and 27% opposition for the India travel ban, with 41% supporting jail time and fines and 33% opposed. However, 56% said they would support allowing citizens to return “provided they complete the necessary quarantine procedures when they arrive”, with 22% opposed. There was also a suite of questions on budget priorities that are probably better saved for the full poll release, which should be along later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. Albanese turns out to be steady on 39% approval and up one on disapproval to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1092.

Some notable preselection action to report:

• The Tasmanian Liberal Senate preselection has seen Eric Abetz, long the dominant figure in the state branch, dumped to the loseable number three position behind fellow incumbents Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew. A source quoted by Sue Bailey of The Mercury said Abetz won the first round of the ballot for top position with 29 votes to Duniam’s 26 and Askew’s 12, before Duniam prevailed on the second round with 36 votes to Abetz’s 31. Askew then defeated Abetz in the ballot for second position by 37 votes to 30.

• Labor’s preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe is in limbo after the Victorian Supreme Court ruled a challenge by ten unions against the federal party organisation’s takeover of the process should proceed to a trial on May 26. This complicates former state secretary Sam Rae’s bid for the seat, which was set to be signed off on by the national executive under the terms of a deal reached between elements of the Left and Right, with Rae being a member of the latter. The Age reports Rae “will be challenged by Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and former Melton council candidate Deepti Alurkar” – I’m not sure where this leaves state government minister Natalie Hutchins, earlier identified as Rae’s chief rival. Hutchins is an ally of Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who have been frozen out of the aforesaid factional deal.

• Barnaby Joyce has easily seen off a challenge for the Nationals preselection in New England from Tenterfield army officer Alex Rubin, whom he defeated in the local members’ ballot by 112 votes to 12.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,861 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and preselection latest”

Comments Page 10 of 58
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  1. Frydenberg should be dismissed for deliberately misleading the house

    Mr Speaker, Australia’s effective management of Covid makes us an even more attractive place for the best and brightest from around the world.

    How can these people come to Australia ,when Morrison and his cronies claimed the international borders are not open

  2. I am waiting to see what will be put in place to stop the spiv operators of aged care facilities from trousering the $10 per resident per day additional government payment.
    But I am not holding my breath.

  6. BK

    I think that’s the crux of the problem. I can’t see the owners changing their techniques for ripping off the profits.

  9. Back in the 70s WA had the Nannup tiger.

    A few years later there was the Cordering cougar.

    Never believed it.

    But I keep an eye out for the Nullarbor nymph on my occasional trips along Eyre highway.

    Probably wishful thinking.

    Am I allowed to say that ?

  10. And the small change:

    “There’s $100 million to protect ocean life, $209.7 million for an Australian Climate Service to prepare for extreme weather events and $1.2 billion over 10* years to encourage investment in regional hydrogen hubs, and in the use of witchcraft and voodoo carbon capture and storage technology. Compared to Australia’s allies and partners, it isn’t much.” (SMH)

    * so just the equivalent of one unnecessary plebiscite per annum.

  11. It’s the Hokey Cokey Budget.

    You put your left wing in
    You take your right wing out.
    You do the Hokey Cokey and you turn around.
    That’s what it’s all about.

  12. The problem i have with big cats is we know cats sleep a lot but none are found sleeping and with the large game wildlife their populations should be growing and their range expanding.

  13. Andrew_Earlwood:

    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 8:01 pm

    Thanks for your response. It does seem unfair that with the unlimited resources of the State, the accused could face a third trial, which will likely end up the same way as the earlier trials. We’ll have to wait & see.

  14. House and half senate election can be called any time after 30 June.
    4 weeks to assess the response to the budget and take out the trash
    4 weeks campaign
    Gets us to mid July

  16. Panthers have been sighted in the Blue Mountains (West of Sydney) for decades.

    Probably just large feral cats plus vivid imagination plus maybe an excess of VB.

  17. M
    ‘…and with the large game wildlife their populations should be growing and expanding.’

    Not necessarily. They would have to be suffering one of the world’s tightest genetic bottlenecks, worse even than Cain and Able.

    Anyhoo, the genetics would be something horrible.

  18. sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 8:17 pm
    Andrew Probyn is dazzled by the show bag – what a lightweight
    ——–

    He is a former newsltd hack they do not change their spots

  20. Winter elections are never good for the incumbents – but Promo will go early to cash in on the pandemic squashing halo, and the threat of being ‘boned’ by his party.

  23. @billshortenmp tweets

    Borders shut til mid-2022. Rubbery funding figures for the #NDIS. Lots of sugar hits, but ultimately a nothingburger with a bad aftertaste. #Budget2021

  24. Steve777
    A mate that lives near Mansfield and has worked on Africa game reserves so knows a bit about tracking wild animals says she has tracked feral cats that could be mistaken for something bigger but she doesn’t think there are big cats in Victoria because big cat behavior forces the young adults to move on to create their own territory except for African lionesses that stay together.

  27. I just did a rough calculation that $10/day/resident would equate to an additional 17 minutes per day for a resident from a carer. Nurses are quite a bit more expensive.

  29. @sallymcmanus tweets

    The budget shows that
    The Liberals love low wages
    8 years of wage suppression
    8 years living standards going backwards
    And doing absolutely nothing about it
    #Budget2021

  30. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/05/11/essential-research-leadership-ratings-and-preselection-latest/comment-page-10/#comment-3604713

    The High Court has ruled that the entire half-Senate electoral process must be within a year of the expiry of the term, so no half-Senate writs before the 1st of July. Then a minimum of 33 days, except that the election has to be on a Saturday and so the first date a half-Senate election can be held is the 8th of August.

  32. House and half senate election can be called any time after 30 June.
    4 weeks to assess the response to the budget and take out the trash
    4 weeks campaign
    Gets us to mid July

    Five weeks

    (at least)

    At least 33 days after writs are issued and it must be on a Saturday.

    Earliest possible date for the House + Half Senate election is 7 August 2021.

  33. Arthur @ #425 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 7:53 pm

    Player Onesays:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 6:36 pm

    Are you under contract to the Global Times, boerwar?

    ………..

    That would somewhat contradict your assertion that he is warmongering a unilateral declaration of war on Beijing.

    Oh he is warmongering all right. But even warmongers have to make a living! 🙂

  37. Also 8 years of inaction on global heating

    And no intention to address it. Even the crumbs thrown to the climate are carefully directed away from anything that might actually prevent greenhouse emissions.

  38. “ Wasn’t the jury clear they had one charge to convict on. It was the judge that wouldn’t accept that. At least that’s my memory.”

    Nope. Once the jury announced they were hopelessly deadlocked on the remaining charges the judge took the verdict on the one charge that they had reached a decision on (De Bellin allegedly anally raping the complainant when Sinclair wasn’t in the room) – not guilty.

  40. If you listened to the Budget at a distance you would think the Liberals were the party of NDIS, aged care , mums etc.

    Totally stealing Labor’s clothes. There is very little ground left for Labor.

  41. My greatest interest in the budget was the aged care response.
    A 100 bed home will need 13 Eft of RN’s per week, i know of a number that work on as low as 4 Eft per week.
    One of the hardest roster positions to fill is RN’s so where are they all going to come from. A lot of RN’s will not do the more mundane care tasks so the pressure on the staff who interact with residents might not be improved as much as might be expected.
    Then you will have the problem of families demanding that Mum get her 40 minutes worth and not being open to this being shared across the unit. A set amount of time does not in any way acknowledge the facts of working in aged care, some residents need little clinical care and some need a lot. I see a return to RN’s being tied to the drug trolley and the care plan which will do little to improve assessment of residents needs. Just as Doctors bow to pressure from RN’s and families to prescribe inappropriate drugs and treatments, RN’s can fall for the same trap and make care decisions based on the observations of less trained staff.
    They are also spending on preventing the use of drugs and restraints and I am still waiting for someone to tell me how you are going to manage a ward full of wandering dementia residents without either. This problem is exacerbated by the rules that do not allow you to discharge a resident to an acute health facility when they are no longer manageable in your facility and they are at the bottom of the food chain when it comes to mental health admissions. I don’t condone the blanket use of either but this needs to be a targeted strategy based on residents not a one rule fits all approach.
    Then the biggest problem is that no one knows where the money to providers is spent. How many charities skim from the aged care department to run other non related programs, how many charge exorbitant rent paid to the charity that owns the asset. How many charge exorbitant management fees to the parent organisation, often for work performed on site and overseen by head office.
    In summation I don’t see anything that gives me confidence this will improve care in anything but the smaller stand alone facilities who are only interested in their organisation.

  43. ‘zoomster says:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 8:45 pm

    boer

    Yeah, but few of us are able to compare them directly.’
    ———————————-
    Yep. I have been paid, at times, to do field surveys that, inter alia, were based partly on the ability to size wild creatures in the wild.
    It was, in fact, extremely difficult to do – even for people such as myself who were experts. It turns out that the wild has very few rulers and tape measures strewn about.
    It is doubly difficult when the creatures are moving.

    If people were able to see their ‘panthers’ next to feral cats then no-one would see another panther in Australia ever again.

  46. boer

    I was out walking one day when I saw a shape in the distance.

    Kangaroo, I thought. The more I looked at it, the more certain I was it was a kangaroo.

    But no, it isn’t, I thought. It’s a dog.

    And it suddenly became very dog like. I could even see its ears twitch.

    Then I thought it was a stump. It looked very like a stump.

    It was a stump.

    (Our brains try and make predictions about what we’re seeing. Sometimes they get it wrong).

  47. Assantdj

    Your post gives the certainty that whoever has made the decision on aged care has no idea what they are doing.

  48. I reckon that the Global Times should start running a campaign for an independence referendum in Taiwan.
    They know that the US flunkies in Taiwan would get a bath and that the vast majority of Taiwanese would embrace the embrace of Xi.
    Nice little circuit breaker, IMO.
    And it would save them a war, to boot.

  49. ‘zoomster says:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 8:57 pm

    boer

    I was out walking one day when I saw a shape in the distance.

    Kangaroo, I thought. The more I looked at it, the more certain I was it was a kangaroo.

    But no, it isn’t, I thought. It’s a dog.

    And it suddenly became very dog like. I could even see its ears twitch.

    Then I thought it was a stump. It looked very like a stump.

    It was a stump.

    (Our brains try and make predictions about what we’re seeing. Sometimes they get it wrong).’

    Yep. Good story, IMO.

  50. Abbott promised tax cuts without spending cuts.
    Morrison is promising major tax cuts with vast spending increases.
    What could possibly go wrong?

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