First up, note two posts below this one dealing with ongoing electoral events: the resolution to the Tasmanian election count and the New South Wales state by-election for Upper Hunter on Saturday week.
The Guardian today reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes the monthly leadership ratings. As was the case with Newspoll, this finds Scott Morrison pulling out of the slump that followed the Brittany Higgins and Christian Porter episodes, with his approval up four to 58% and disapproval to five to 32%, without quite restoring him to the respective 62% and 29% he recorded in the March poll. The recovery has been particularly pronounced with women, among whom he is up nine points on approval to 55% and down eight on disapproval to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-28 to 50-24; Anthony Albanese’s ratings are said to be “constant compared to his standing last month”, when he had 39% approval and 34% disapproval.
The poll also finds 48% support and 27% opposition for the India travel ban, with 41% supporting jail time and fines and 33% opposed. However, 56% said they would support allowing citizens to return “provided they complete the necessary quarantine procedures when they arrive”, with 22% opposed. There was also a suite of questions on budget priorities that are probably better saved for the full poll release, which should be along later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. Albanese turns out to be steady on 39% approval and up one on disapproval to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1092.
Some notable preselection action to report:
• The Tasmanian Liberal Senate preselection has seen Eric Abetz, long the dominant figure in the state branch, dumped to the loseable number three position behind fellow incumbents Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew. A source quoted by Sue Bailey of The Mercury said Abetz won the first round of the ballot for top position with 29 votes to Duniam’s 26 and Askew’s 12, before Duniam prevailed on the second round with 36 votes to Abetz’s 31. Askew then defeated Abetz in the ballot for second position by 37 votes to 30.
• Labor’s preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe is in limbo after the Victorian Supreme Court ruled a challenge by ten unions against the federal party organisation’s takeover of the process should proceed to a trial on May 26. This complicates former state secretary Sam Rae’s bid for the seat, which was set to be signed off on by the national executive under the terms of a deal reached between elements of the Left and Right, with Rae being a member of the latter. The Age reports Rae “will be challenged by Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and former Melton council candidate Deepti Alurkar” – I’m not sure where this leaves state government minister Natalie Hutchins, earlier identified as Rae’s chief rival. Hutchins is an ally of Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who have been frozen out of the aforesaid factional deal.
• Barnaby Joyce has easily seen off a challenge for the Nationals preselection in New England from Tenterfield army officer Alex Rubin, whom he defeated in the local members’ ballot by 112 votes to 12.
Player One,
Whatever Labor announces will follow with some Journo hack asking them how they will pay for it, whilst they will simultaneously tell us how brilliant the Liberals big spend budget is.
Steve777says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 8:22 pm
Panthers have been sighted in the Blue Mountains (West of Sydney) for decades.
Probably just large feral cats plus vivid imagination plus maybe an excess of VB.
………….
A greater mystery might be why NSW yobbos would be drinking that demonic, green labelled shite, when they produce a perfectly servicable brand of low grade lager themselves.
Lars Von Trier
Is that your nom de plume ?
General Gloom ?
Griff says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 9:45 pm
“And when you add wartime into the equation Bucephalus? Your turn”
Que?????
Nicko @ #551 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 9:46 pm
True. But the answer is “using the same money the Liberals would have used … but using it to better effect”
Zerlo
See? The Mighty Bunyip River rises (should be ‘falls’, odd really…) on the slopes of Mount Beenak before flowing through, or near, towns including such mighty metropolises as Bunyip, Cora Lyn and Koo-Wee-Rup. (Sadly for the Nar Nar Goonites, the urban agglomeration of Nar Nar Goon misses out on this aqueous distinction). Fish species include BOTH the long-finned and short-finned eel!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bunyip_River
For anyone who hasn’t got a cup of warm milk to get them to sleep tonight:
The Budget Papers
https://budget.gov.au/index.htm
Try judging the species and size of a fast moving shark when surfing or spear fishing.
Haven’t been spear fishing since my mate got in a touch of trouble at the west end of Cylinder beach on Straddie and ended up with his hand spear though his foot. You know those cluster tip heads? Holy fuckadoolee they were all the way through.
The kicker, like you need one? Old mate is a haemophiliac. What a sight. We still can’t believe he made it.
The funny side? His family name is the same as a common fish.
Goll @ #551 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 9:50 pm
Maybe he should change his nom again? 😀
Dandy Murray @ #558 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 9:51 pm
He was a grouper? Clem Atlee will not be pleased! 🙂
‘Dandy Murray says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 9:51 pm
Try judging the species and size of a fast moving shark when surfing or spear fishing.
Haven’t been spear fishing since my mate got in a touch of trouble at the west end of Cylinder beach on Straddie and ended up with his hand spear though his foot. You know those cluster tip heads? Holy fuckadoolee they were all the way through.
The kicker, like you need one? Old mate is a haemophiliac. What a sight. We still can’t believe he made it.
The funny side? His family name is the same as a common fish.’
OK, we’ll use some of the contextual clues: Clownfish?
Well-observed by The Guardian crew:
And another fun tidbit in the budget – the national integrity commission staffing roster (the one that doesn’t exist yet, and probably never will) has gone from 75 to…zero
I mean, there is no real legislation for it, and it’s always been in the never-never, but still. Now it’s official.
Idiotic Australian government with no money for higher education or intelligent response to national and global issues, wishing for tech and healthcare to save them
Beaten totally by a country with universal free tertiary education, a broader economy and much more high level science and manufacturing and a far more genuine interest in addressing the global climate crisis and decarbonisation of their economy, ie Germany
The BioNTech German company is opening an Asian office in Singapore and a joint venture with Chinese company to produce over a billion doses of covid vaccine a year, in a year or two
BioNTech to build mRNA vaccine manufacturing site in Singapore
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/biontech-build-mrna-manufacturing-site-singapore-2021-05-10/
BioNTech (22UAy.DE) plans to set up a regional centre and a new factory in Singapore for its vaccines, it said on Monday, boosting its presence in Asia as a debate over patents rages and pressure grows on drugmakers to raise output of COVID-19 shots.
—
CHINA VENTURE
BioNTech and Pfizer are jointly commercializing the vaccine worldwide, excluding China, Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan, which are covered by BioNTech’s collaboration with Fosun Pharma.
Fosun said on Sunday it would provide a factory with an annual capacity to make up to 1 billion doses of the COVID-19 vaccine under a joint venture with BioNTech.
Not sure what makes anyone think the small minded approach of auspol would attract these sorts of companies or projects, even as some finally started talking about it recently
Interestingly enough German exports to China have been surging just as Australia’s have been caving, up 38% in last qtr, mostly quality manufactured goods not piles of rock either.
Why are Chinese imports & exports surging? | DW News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg7xvqPIbCM
Interestingly even here on a random DW news story there are quite a few Chinese, many likely trolls, but also other not Chinese, specifically commenting on Morrison and Australia and how stupid they/we are. As the Chinese economy charges and increases trade with ASEAN, Europe, US and just about everyone but Australia.
Even as Germany and others still raise issues about Xinjiang and other matters like human rights without suffering so much.
No and no.
National Integrity Commission staffed by no staff?
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.THEY.CORRUPT.
‘Dandy Murray says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 9:57 pm
No and no.’
————–
Whiting? Flathead? Bream? Cod? Carp/Karp?
Still no movement from the Morrison government on the elephant in the room:
Jim Chalmers MP
@JEChalmers
Despite spending almost $100 billion and racking up a record $1 trillion in debt, the Morrison Government’s Budget reveals real wages will go backwards. #Budget2021 #auspol
I havent seen it reported in the media. Timber shortage in Australia. Apparently USA have bought up all our timber at inflated prices.
People are being laid off in the construction industry as a result
Is the Bunyip the Mexican name for the Colorado River?
BW, yep one of them.
Bucephalus @9.45pm
” Why is the poor sod………….”
A great leap of assumption, dismissive and unnecessary.
Perhaps it’s the company he’s forced to sit with. Now that’s a valid and realistic assumption. Yours nah!
Mack? George? Toad?
‘https://www.globaltimes.cn/’
I reckon that the comrades are probably thinking about forcibly impregnating China’s women to fix the demographic disaster created by their draconian One Child Policy. They have shown no compunction in the past about draconian policies controlling women’s bodies. Why stop now?
Whiting?
Vic,
There has been a lot of talk on the finance blogs and media about commodity price spikes, and lumber is a key figure: https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=LB
I’m not surprised that US companies have raided out stocks, at those prices.
This is how inflation propagates around the globe. Hold on to your hats and lock in your interest rates.
@Incitivus:
“ Yes, Churchill was PM 1940-45 but he was also PM 1951-55. He was born in 1874. You do the math.”
What is this ‘math’ you talk of. Sounds vaguely Yankee.
If by chance you are referring to mathematics, aka maths for short in this country, then the starting point would be what Erica actually said, and I quote:
“ Winston Churchill became wartime prime minister at 71”.
The reprobate was born in 1874 as you noted. That would make him 66 when he first became PM in 1940 – ie. in wartime. He ceased to be wartime PM when he was 71.
If the addled old Erica was referring to the second time that Churchill became PM – 1951 – then you’ll note that (1) Korea was conveniently considered to be NOT a war by all involved, and (2) he was 76 or 77 at the time. …
Bucephalus,
Abetz’s quote per ABC: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-11/eric-abetz-claims-ageism-and-sexism-in-senate-ticket-demotion/100131736
“Winston Churchill became wartime prime minister at 71…”
Perhaps Abetz was ignoring the common usage of Churchill being elected as a wartime PM in 1940 i.e. WWII. Perhaps Abetz was referring to other wars? The UK had troops involved in the Korean War I think. That would be hilarious 🙂
BW wins!
C@tmomma
Thanks for the links. The Scandinavian model is very similar to the Dutch model that was being touted in the late 1990’s.
I was very involved in the planning of the rebuild where I worked and as a result was part of a delegation that went to Japan to tout our at that time world leading aged care ideas.
My biggest professional regret is that I left the facility I managed due to family needs and it was at that time I discovered how far the aged care industry had slipped from the reform agenda to a profit based business agenda.
And now for something completely different. And ineffably sad. India’s COVID-19 explosion has spilled over into Nepal catastrophically:
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/commentisfree/2021/may/11/nepal-says-its-covid-response-is-under-control-everyone-can-see-its-not-true
Thanks AE 🙂
Octopus have an unfair advantage.
Assantdj,
I can only hope that the Royal Commission and the extra money provide the needed momentum.
Victoria says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:00 pm
“I havent seen it reported in the media.”
More than well covered in the media I follow along with a whole lot of other shortages and cost pressures.
Why is the poor sod at the back on the chair being forced to wear a mask?
He’s an official. He doesn’t have to cheer on the Treasurer at the right places nor does he have have any particular need to be seen and recognised on TV
Abetz the Addled?
Sounds like some fourth grade medieval robber baron lurking around a bruck over the River Inn nobbling passing traders, pilgrims and tourists.
Dandy Murray
We live in interesting times…..
C@t
If I fed the budget papers into one of those machine summarising programs would I get..
bullshit.. bullshit.. lies.. waffle.. bullshit.. bullshit
?
‘Simon Katich says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:07 pm
Octopus have an unfair advantage.’
————————————
Especially since Bluey loves whiting fillets.
Economics Editor Ross Gittins had a different view, labelling this the “couldabeen budget”, arguing the government should have spent more.
“It’s not a bad budget,” Ross writes. “Most of the things it does are good things to do. Its goal of driving unemployment much lower is exactly right. Its approach of increasing rather than cutting government spending is correct, as is its strategy of fixing the economy to fix the budget.
“But having fixed on the right strategy Scott Morrison, reluctant to be seen as Labor lite, has failed in its execution. Economists call this ‘product differentiation’; others just call it marketing.”
From the Herald editorial take on the Budget.
“ Abetz the Addled?
Sounds like some fourth grade medieval robber baron lurking around a bruck over the River Inn nobbling passing traders, pilgrims and tourists.”
So you’ve been to Tasmania I take it? Erica has recreated Grimms tales on the Derwent.
Timber had been a problem in residential building industry for a while. I am tempted to say builders are using a small problem as an excuse. But they r at the mercy of timber merchants and unlikely to be interested in absorbing costs while the market is booming. I have also noticed a heck of a lot of steel framework lately.
There r other options to timber framework too. I think the problem will come out in the wash.
Simon Katichsays:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 9:29 pm
China’s massive dam building on the Mekong and its tributaries, along with its water extraction out of the Mekong….
————————
Could never happen here.
……….
Why not?
No doubt deafening silence from a gutless Labor on the gas and CCS wasted money, still hoping that climate problems will just go away.
Like the Nats wishing away the mouse plagues, and all the other various misfortunes coming down the line as global climate changes and ecological breakdowns induces more extremes of all sorts. Leaving only the most rapidly breeding and adaptable creatures to prosper, like rodents, locusts and various other creatures that will prosper with human stupidity and mess.
https://www.9news.com.au/world/india-coronavirus-suspected-covid-bodies-wash-up-ganges-river-banks/1b1c2dda-2d22-4949-9a92-8ed1b616e250
No comment.
Bluey may note that I will be looking for a good feed of KG whiting over on Eyre Peninsular this weekend.
Not sure what they are catching in the lower lakes.
quoll
A few points.
I like your reference to the ‘idiotic’ government. Good point, IMO.
Have the Chinese offered to pay the Germans for the maglev IP they stole?
Why are the Germans thinking about pulling out of the CAI? The Global Times reckon that there is a ‘thickening embarrassment’ in the air on that one. Peculiar language? Something to do with EU sanctions on China and China’s tit-for-tat sanctions on the EU because of the Uigher Genocide. Last I heard Germany was something to do with the EU.
BTW, despite losses in trade particularly on coal and wine, Australia’s trade with China has increased significantly since the start of Covid. Never been higher. All because of record high iron ore prices.
Cud Chewer @ #591 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:16 pm
Read the article I posted about Nepal, Cud. 🙁
SK
One of my favourite fish on light tackle. And so yummy to eat!
Tight lines!
Didn’t a lot of the timber required for building burn down in the bushfires of last summer? It couldn’t have grown back that fast, so obviously there was going to be a knock-on effect.