Essential Research leadership ratings and preselection latest

A second pollster suggests Scott Morrison’s recent slump to have been short-lived, as Eric Abetz gets dumped from his customary position at the top of the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket.

First up, note two posts below this one dealing with ongoing electoral events: the resolution to the Tasmanian election count and the New South Wales state by-election for Upper Hunter on Saturday week.

The Guardian today reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes the monthly leadership ratings. As was the case with Newspoll, this finds Scott Morrison pulling out of the slump that followed the Brittany Higgins and Christian Porter episodes, with his approval up four to 58% and disapproval to five to 32%, without quite restoring him to the respective 62% and 29% he recorded in the March poll. The recovery has been particularly pronounced with women, among whom he is up nine points on approval to 55% and down eight on disapproval to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-28 to 50-24; Anthony Albanese’s ratings are said to be “constant compared to his standing last month”, when he had 39% approval and 34% disapproval.

The poll also finds 48% support and 27% opposition for the India travel ban, with 41% supporting jail time and fines and 33% opposed. However, 56% said they would support allowing citizens to return “provided they complete the necessary quarantine procedures when they arrive”, with 22% opposed. There was also a suite of questions on budget priorities that are probably better saved for the full poll release, which should be along later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. Albanese turns out to be steady on 39% approval and up one on disapproval to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1092.

Some notable preselection action to report:

• The Tasmanian Liberal Senate preselection has seen Eric Abetz, long the dominant figure in the state branch, dumped to the loseable number three position behind fellow incumbents Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew. A source quoted by Sue Bailey of The Mercury said Abetz won the first round of the ballot for top position with 29 votes to Duniam’s 26 and Askew’s 12, before Duniam prevailed on the second round with 36 votes to Abetz’s 31. Askew then defeated Abetz in the ballot for second position by 37 votes to 30.

• Labor’s preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe is in limbo after the Victorian Supreme Court ruled a challenge by ten unions against the federal party organisation’s takeover of the process should proceed to a trial on May 26. This complicates former state secretary Sam Rae’s bid for the seat, which was set to be signed off on by the national executive under the terms of a deal reached between elements of the Left and Right, with Rae being a member of the latter. The Age reports Rae “will be challenged by Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and former Melton council candidate Deepti Alurkar” – I’m not sure where this leaves state government minister Natalie Hutchins, earlier identified as Rae’s chief rival. Hutchins is an ally of Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who have been frozen out of the aforesaid factional deal.

• Barnaby Joyce has easily seen off a challenge for the Nationals preselection in New England from Tenterfield army officer Alex Rubin, whom he defeated in the local members’ ballot by 112 votes to 12.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,861 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and preselection latest”

Comments Page 13 of 58
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  1. ‘Quoll says:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:15 pm

    No doubt deafening silence from a gutless Labor…’

    Well, that didn’t take long!

  2. S K

    I see a lot of steel frames going up around here. It isn’t just price related – the steel is a better product in a lot of ways. Timber has only clung on because, like so many things in building, inertia.

  5. boerwar says:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 9:51 pm

    Tiny Tiny River – that looks like to be dried out.

    Been to many countries/states with rivers from QLD to NSW, to VIC, Japan, Taiwan.

    Zengwun River (Taiwan) is more impressive.
    Yodo River (Japan) etc.

  6. A Budget for Women, huh?

    Amber Schultz
    @AmberMaySchultz

    The Office for Women which is supposed to be consulted on how policies will impact women had its funding slashed by $7.1 million. This is pretty crazy given how much emphasis Morrison put on the new roles for women during the cabinet reshuffle. #Budget21

  7. I won’t have time to take/use a rod (and would know how/where is best to use it without one of my local mates instruction). So hoping the restaurants and pubs have sourced something nice.

    But I do get an opportunity to take out the kayak.

  9. SK
    A rod out the side of a kayak, across bare ground surrounded by weedbeds, drifting a pippi… you should clean up nicely.

  10. Timber is needed to do form work in the commercial sector as well.

    Metricon and simonds homes are not signing up new home contracts aa a result of the shortage,

  11. Interesting:

    In the defence and national security space Anthony Galloway reports the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade will grow by 100 new staff to help businesses deal with the growing threat of Chinese trade strikes.

  12. ‘Zerlo says:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:21 pm

    boerwar says:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 9:51 pm

    Tiny Tiny River – that looks like to be dried out.’

    So insensitive!
    Who could forget the great flood of 1934 which inundated Koo-Wee-Rup!
    How dare you insult the mighty Bunyip!
    On behalf of the booming lamprey population I condemn your wanton attack on its broad reaches, its fertile waters, its reedbeeds (replete with Clamorous Reed Warblers) and even its leeches!

  14. boerwar says:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:29 pm

    Do you remember the great flooding in QLD.

    2010–11 Queensland floods.

  16. The leverage on the prongs must have hurt like hell.

    Somehow his spear ended up wedged in the rocks and he was washed over it. It looked like his foot was pointed, as you do when swimming, and the prongs kind of slid in on an accute angle, somehow going between the bones…

    A couple of council workers happened to be putting in a new beach entrance (down from the pub, for those who know Straddie). They pulled him off the rocks, where he was trying to get out of the water, and unscrewed the rod from the head. Ambos are only about 500m away. Helicopter to Brisbane in about 30 minutes.

    We knew he was alright when he kept grinning and going back to the opiate inhaler.

  18. Dandy Murray says:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:37 pm
    ‘…
    We knew he was alright when he kept grinning and going back to the opiate inhaler.
    …’
    haha.
    And with that, it’s off to the land of nod myself.

  19. Zerlosays:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 9:39 pm

    “At least China has rivers……. Australia doesn’t have any.”

    ………….

    You flaming idiot.

    There are at least 100 rivers within 500 kilometres of my house.

    Most of those receive on average between 2000 and 5000 millimetres of rain a year. In an extreme year, falls in the catchment of some of those rivers can exceed 10 METRES.

    My rain gauge took 750mm in April this year (a usually dry month) and the grass didn’t even bother to grow.

    The North Eastern part of this continent almost exactly mirrors South East Asia topographically, geographically and environmentally, except it is twice the size.

    We have more water than you could ever want or need, but we don’t take too kindly to dictator’s, or even semi-literate propagandists with an authoritarian bent.

  21. An implementation coefficient can be applied to each item of spending announced in the budget.

    For spending that benefits big business, CO2 producers and maaates generally, the implementation coefficient is around 2.0

    For spending that benefits the little guy, justice for women, aged care, renewable energy and so on, the implementation coefficient is around 0.2

  23. Arthur says:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:45 pm

    You flaming Dingbat.

    You are like Hockey’s calculator ‘at least 100 rivers within 1000 kilometres of my house’. Pull the other one. Suggest you travel around and open your mind.

    Oh btw Arthur, the west are dictators, that is why Racist Political Parties always win governments.

  24. Evening all. A few thoughts on the budget, which I found too depressing to sit through live.
    – it is a sparkle-pony budget. An announcement for everyone but little of substance and nothing structural or that can be paid for in the long term.
    – example 1 – infrastructure announcements have grown from $110 billion over ten years to $4billion in a year? Hang on, thats a cut. Is this new money? I can’t tell.
    – example 2 – all those funding “gifts” to women, the elderly and the disabled will still pass through the hands of private service providers, who are the real winners. The grifting goes on.
    – example 3 – climate change. Renew Economy is correct. There is nothing to assist the move to where the rest of the world is heading, and yet more money to prop up industries that are as obsolete as blacksmiths.

    So some might feel good about this budget in the short term, but in the long term its prospects are as good as Christian Porter’s reelection chances.

    Meanwhile the Liberal debt tsunami mounts, but apparently we don’t care about that any more. Until we need to.

    My overwhelming view of this budget is that it is the product of the thinking of a valueless group of men who care about nothing but their own re-election. There is no discernible managerial or political philosophy in evidence. Start pre-selecting everybody, it might be September. Night all.

  26. So…why are things bad in India?

    Just saw on ABC24 a clip of this guy whowas afaid of catching covid, so bathed in cows milk….and now bathes in cow shit.

    Yup,”I am afraid of infection so am bathing in shit”.

    Hmmmmmm………is that at all similar, metaphorically, to the RWingers who worship Trump or vote for Smoko ???

  30. “An implementation coefficient can be applied ”

    Yes!!! A particularly useful tool for bench-marking this particular govt. REALLY, some math head ALP staffer should properly define a formula for this and apply it. I mean you can spin this to sound all science and official and then use it to completely shit-can the Libs. 🙂

  31. Zerlosays:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:52 pm
    Arthur says:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:45 pm

    You flaming Dingbat.

    You are like Hockey’s calculator ‘at least 100 rivers within 1000 kilometres of my house’. Pull the other one. Suggest you travel around and open your mind.

    …………..

    Click “lakes and major rivers”

    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR191.loop.shtml#skip

    So much lovely clean water.
    When the rest of the country turns into a dustbowl, you can have NONE OF IT.

  32. Something else for Abetz to consider is the fact that Churchill was well and truly senile during his second term as PM.

  33. Listened to employers wanting to bring in foreign workers for key jobs. Great that Budget money has gone to training, apprenticeship etc, but will take a while to flow through.
    Why can’t industry get experienced staff back to work. Is it a case of you reap what you sow???
    Poor work hours, pay and conditions where you treat staff as easy come easy go and they prefer to work elsewhere.
    Do not let overseas workers back in, train our own.

  34. “ Churchill was a strapping young buck in his prime when he was PM, apparently. Both times!

    Take that Erica!!!!!”

    Erica may well have jumped the shark when he claimed that Churchill was 71 when he became wartime PM, but you have exceeded him by far, Buceboy: ‘strapping young buck’ when he became PM again aged 77 (and it seems senile as well).

  35. I don’t even know what a “dingbat” is?

    I have however shot a few hunded feral cats, not a single one of them was black, nor had any other resemblance to a panther.

    Have I perhaps tonight spotted the mythical beast “Zoidlord”?

  37. I can’t help thinking this budget might disappear from the public mind fairly quickly.

    All that seems to have been done is to throw money at problem areas.

    Where is the reform, something that is really going to do something about health, education, jobs, welfare or the environment

    I don’t think the liberals have much idea of how to change outcomes in these areas. More money or a tax cut isn’t always the answer.

  38. I can’t help thinking this budget might disappear from the public mind fairly quickly.\

    I found it underwhelming too, Ross

  40. @AmyRemeikis tweets

    Just passed a long line of people (mostly women) waiting in line for a taxi at the rank – and then watched as two men skipped the queue and grabbed a cab as it pulled into the parliament car park, before it got anywhere near the rank.

    Analogies. They’re everywhere

  41. @davidbewart tweets
    Pensioners got totally NOTHING

    Homeless got NOTHING

    public housing.NOTHING

    Jobseeker NOTHING

    renewables NOTHING

    environment. Nothing

    #Budget21

  44. Pretty depressing to see “senior” journalists just shrug their shoulders at the biggest ever deficit in history by a country mile.

    Not one has asked, “Where’s the money coming from?”

    Not one has asked, “What happened to ‘BACK IN BLACK‘?”

    Not one has pointed out that the last nearly fifty years of “Labor, BOO!” for “saddling our children and our grandchildren with crippling debt” from the Coalition, quaint homilies about how running a national budget is just like running a household, incessant surplus fetishism, and a permanent fixation on accounting for every single cent of public spending has been, in reality, a half century of fiscal deceit and calculated political humbug.

  45. Senate Hearing.

    @jimsciutto tweets

    —>> @SenatorBurr presses WH Covid official on why the US isn’t giving other countries more AstraZeneca vaccine, which he notes isn’t even approved for use here.

    “Why have we not mobilized that to other parts of the world today?” Burr asks

  46. BB
    They are not journos nowadays. Just lazy bastards towing the company line that they work for.A 12 yr old could write the shite that they do.

  48. @RepJayapal tweets

    HR 1—the For the People Act—has the overwhelming support of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans across America.

    I’m thrilled that @SenateRules is taking up this critical voting rights bill today as an important first step towards passing it and combating voter suppression.
    ______________
    If this passes the Senate and it could the GOP are stuffed.

  49. I can’t help thinking this budget might disappear from the public mind fairly quickly.

    There’s your three word slogan: “Is that it?!”

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