First up, note two posts below this one dealing with ongoing electoral events: the resolution to the Tasmanian election count and the New South Wales state by-election for Upper Hunter on Saturday week.
The Guardian today reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes the monthly leadership ratings. As was the case with Newspoll, this finds Scott Morrison pulling out of the slump that followed the Brittany Higgins and Christian Porter episodes, with his approval up four to 58% and disapproval to five to 32%, without quite restoring him to the respective 62% and 29% he recorded in the March poll. The recovery has been particularly pronounced with women, among whom he is up nine points on approval to 55% and down eight on disapproval to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-28 to 50-24; Anthony Albanese’s ratings are said to be “constant compared to his standing last month”, when he had 39% approval and 34% disapproval.
The poll also finds 48% support and 27% opposition for the India travel ban, with 41% supporting jail time and fines and 33% opposed. However, 56% said they would support allowing citizens to return “provided they complete the necessary quarantine procedures when they arrive”, with 22% opposed. There was also a suite of questions on budget priorities that are probably better saved for the full poll release, which should be along later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. Albanese turns out to be steady on 39% approval and up one on disapproval to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1092.
Some notable preselection action to report:
• The Tasmanian Liberal Senate preselection has seen Eric Abetz, long the dominant figure in the state branch, dumped to the loseable number three position behind fellow incumbents Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew. A source quoted by Sue Bailey of The Mercury said Abetz won the first round of the ballot for top position with 29 votes to Duniam’s 26 and Askew’s 12, before Duniam prevailed on the second round with 36 votes to Abetz’s 31. Askew then defeated Abetz in the ballot for second position by 37 votes to 30.
• Labor’s preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe is in limbo after the Victorian Supreme Court ruled a challenge by ten unions against the federal party organisation’s takeover of the process should proceed to a trial on May 26. This complicates former state secretary Sam Rae’s bid for the seat, which was set to be signed off on by the national executive under the terms of a deal reached between elements of the Left and Right, with Rae being a member of the latter. The Age reports Rae “will be challenged by Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and former Melton council candidate Deepti Alurkar” – I’m not sure where this leaves state government minister Natalie Hutchins, earlier identified as Rae’s chief rival. Hutchins is an ally of Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who have been frozen out of the aforesaid factional deal.
• Barnaby Joyce has easily seen off a challenge for the Nationals preselection in New England from Tenterfield army officer Alex Rubin, whom he defeated in the local members’ ballot by 112 votes to 12.
Morrison’s nose grows ever longer.
“frednksays:
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 6:50 am
This will go down as the bullshit budget. Lots of ice cream no meat and potatoes.”
After looking at this budget even “drunken sailors”are saying that they are fiscal Conservatives. 🙂
Agree with those saying this is not a Labor budget.
The way the media are framing it is an opportunity for Albanese. To correct the record, highlight the differences, layout what the ALP stand up for. It would be a great way to start a speech. ‘This is not a Labor budget…..’.
I don’t think Albanese can go light on this. The final straight is coming up.
‘clem attlee says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:59 pm
Most thylacine sightings are actually foxes with severe mange. They look eerily like the thylacines.’
Most Thylacine sightings are in Tasmania.
There are no foxes in Tasmania.
A really good opposition leader would rip Scrote a new one over this colossal wasted opportunity.
Over to you Albo.
Jim had a luke warm go this morning, not bad, just not fired up.
Mavis says:
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 8:41 am
This to justify the worst debt & deficit in three generations
Deficit spending is a very good thing. The alternative is to be trapped in recession. There are no penalties for running deficits when there are idle economic resources.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 8:32 am
Been There
Are you saying that social housing is being directed away from those most in need?
I’m not saying that OC.
What I’m saying is that social housing can be for low to median income people who cannot afford the ridiculous price of housing these days as well as those living below the poverty line.
A good responsible government would fund for this, creating a construction boom and a solid investment for government, with guaranteed income.
Something, again, completely overlooked in the budget.
As usual we have to rely on Labor state governments to step up, as it is not in the Liberal mindset.
Morrison insists that vaccination targets are not a policy, but aspirational, even if mentioned in the Budget. “We are continuing to roll out…blah…blah…”
To be more exact, there are not meant to be any foxes in Tasmania. I was referring to sightings on the mainland, of which there have been plenty ie Zoomster.
Labor’s problem will be the same as it always has.
Whatever alternative spending it proposes will prompt the usual question from the cheer squad. “Where’s the money coming from?”
Labor can’t have new spending without a matching cut.
Morrison and Frydenberg just flash the credit card.
OC
Replied to your comment however reply is “awaiting moderation”.
Must of done something naughty.
If it doesn’t get through then what I’m saying is that social housing , when done properly, can be for low to medium oncome earners, as well as those living below the poverty line.
In this current property & rental market a lot of people are excluded from finding decent, affordable accommodation.
Rossmcg @ #67 Wednesday, May 12th, 2021 – 9:21 am
On the ABC News Radio this morning just before 8am I heard Birmingham being asked just that question and not answering that well
Time to add to some colour to your day of black, white and grey of budget analysis.
It’s Global Cartoons Time!
UK:
Morten Morland on #AngelaRayner #Labour #LabourReshuffle #QueensSpeech
Canada:
Ireland:
India:
Religious gatherings continue to spread COVID! @newssting1 cartoon #CovidPandemic
More than 235 Indian journalists succumbed to COVID…
South Africa:
New Zealand:
Netherlands:
Switzerland:
France:
Sweden:
Columbia:
In Colombia, a tax reform generated a wave of protests, that were met with violence by the police. Cartoon by Emanuele Del Rosso
XKCD:
A few from the XKCD back catalogue:
BK says:
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 7:18 am
I don’t know what the standards are required to become a Journalist or Editor for the New Daily but that first article you linked to is a Fail. One suspects it is so badly written in order to cover up the real story which is that on Monday Hamas fired hundreds of missiles out of Gaza into Israel.
“No fossil fuel profits were harmed in the making of this Budget”
Giving single mothers deposit guarantees on 2% is worthy but really the practical take up of that would be very low given the number of people in the community in desperate circumstances ( see 12 words for what I summed up in short hand)
The reality is there no new spending on social housing.
Giving social housing to middle income people is utopian given the urgent unmet need in the community.
Bucephalus @ #710 Wednesday, May 12th, 2021 – 9:40 am
What’s that got to do with the Australian budget?
The entire Middle East has been a violent powderkeg since basically forever now. The only thing interesting about the latest clash is that Netanyahu will probably use it as an excuse to cling to power.
Been There @9:27.
“…social housing , when done properly, can be for low to medium oncome earners, as well as those living below the poverty line.”
When I was young, (NSW) Housing Commission homes were scattered throughout the suburbs. Most inhabitants seemed to have jobs, some were pensioners. Unemployment back then was around 1%. Housing prices were rising steadily but then so were wages.
Interesting quote from Alan Kohler:
” When the synapses of the current Liberals and Nationals were being formed in the 1970s and ’80s, the economic problem was inflation and inflation-fighters were in charge everywhere, including here.
The weapon of choice was unemployment. After 30 years of it averaging 1.9 per cent from 1945 to 1975, the unemployment rate has since averaged 6.8 per cent, including two episodes above 10 per cent. It worked.”
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/05/12/alan-kohler-coalition-conversion-debt-and-deficits/
Unemployment and the resulting social problems are a choice.
Re Bucephalus @ #710 Wednesday, May 12th, 2021 – 9:40 am
One suspects it is so badly written in order to cover up the real story which is that on Monday Hamas fired hundreds of missiles out of Gaza into Israel
What a strange comment.
You are a very suspicious fellow. Which “One” apart from yourself? Are the acres of Newsprint in the Daily Nine, Daily Rupert and National Rupert also covering up events in the Middle East? All the Budget talk on commercial TV and radio?
Steve777
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 10:07 am
Exactly.
In the late sixties in NSW entire new suburbs of Housing Commission houses were built.
I grew up in one and the whole suburb was predominantly workers or pensioners.
This can be done again and provided for low to medium income earners as well as the less fortunate.
It’s win,win & win situation.
More affordable homes to rent, massive construction boom creating jobs and revenue and a guaranteed income for the government.
How anyone can argue against this I just don’t know.
Big negative for all the spivs out there who own three,four,five or more negatively geared houses and renting them at exorbitant prices.
Do I care if the bottom falls out of their little lurk?
Heck no!
A belated good morning and thanks for the roundup BK. I had the AZ vaccine yesterday at the W&C Hospital. It was well organised and staff were excellent, but I woke up with a headache and chills last night and was feeling a bit lethargic this morning. Overall side effects were minor and I am feeling better now. I’d still say get it for sure if you can.
On the budget, apart from the many other flaws already highlighted (like a trillion dollar debt with no long term investment to show for it) it really is a terribly secretive document, compared to previous budgets I have read.
If you look through the detailed documents (Vol 2 on spending) many line items are simply listed with “nfp” and no dollar amount, with no explanation of why. This is often done for embarrassing items, like how much is to be paid out to compensate debit card/Robodebt victims (pages 37 & 44), or the budget for extra Covid vaccines we still need (page 37).
https://budget.gov.au/2021-22/content/bp2/download/bp2_03_payment.pdf
WTF?? These aren’t matters of national security, or commercial in confidence. They are hiding the evidence of their incompetence. Does parliament get to scrutinise the budget or not?
I was reading about this last night:
A horror heaped upon a horror:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/11/india-covid-black-fungus/
😯
Cat
I have read several sources that suggest the death toll from covid could be 5 to 10 times the official count. They are only counting deaths after a patient had a positive covid test in their total, and not doing many tests.
The very poor air quality in many Indian cities may also be contributing to their death toll.
KayJay @ #656 Wednesday, May 12th, 2021 – 8:39 am
Millennials. 🙂
Socrates @ #680 Wednesday, May 12th, 2021 – 10:36 am
Soc,
Have you read about Nepal?
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/commentisfree/2021/may/11/nepal-says-its-covid-response-is-under-control-everyone-can-see-its-not-true
They can’t even keep their doctors and nurses alive to treat all the other ill Nepalis!
And, of course the Indians are undercounting Covid deaths. Modi has an election to win. 😐
“Matter of National Security” ≈ “Matter that would embarrass the Government if it got out”.
citizen @ #647 Wednesday, May 12th, 2021 – 8:04 am
And if money does flow, it will be for rorts.
Good Morning.
Excellent points here about the budget.
So I will comment on the Israel Palestinian issue without any racism. To help the Palestinians not fire rockets into Israel the Americans should give Iron Dome to the Palestinians.
Israel would quickly stop being aggressors if there was a parity in power. State terrorism is a thing. As we condemn China so we should condemn Israel.
https://majorityreportradio.com/
sprocket_ @ #646 Wednesday, May 12th, 2021 – 7:54 am
Especially this well-made point:
@AlboMP tweets
The Morrison Government has admitted that cost of living will rise faster than your pay – which means for the next two years, people’s pay will be going backwards.
After eight long years of wages going nowhere, now they’re going backwards.
This will hurt families.
@KKeneally tweets
Despite the ongoing global pandemic, there is no plan for national quarantine in Scott Morrison’s budget. @ScottMorrisonMP and the Liberals are not on your side.
@Mark_Butler_MP tweets
The morning after the Budget and already the PM and Finance Minister have conceded Australians won’t be vaccinated this year. The PM has two jobs – vaccine rollout and safe quarantine. This Budget fails on both.
U.S. COVID update:
– New cases: 34,959 ………………….. – New deaths: 683
– In hospital: 33,370 (-479)
– In ICU: 8,964 (-104)
596,946 total deaths now
Cat
Indeed if money does flow, it will be for rorts.
I saw somebody mention 9 billion in measures approved but not announced.
That’s your election slush fund right there.
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2021/05/11/government-announces-budget-surplus-of-negative-161-billion/
😉
Rossmcg @ #691 Wednesday, May 12th, 2021 – 11:13 am
Mate, with so many former Liberal MPs in the Defence procurement Industry, you can bet on it!
@joshuabadge tweets
In a recent Essential Poll the only 2 groups people expected to do well under last night’s budget were rich people and big business… well, they weren’t wrong
_____________
5 hours ago @kylegriffin1 tweets
Breaking:
DALLAS (AP) — Judge dismisses National Rifle Association’s bankruptcy case in blow to gun-rights group, victory for New York state.
guytaursays:
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 10:49 am
“To help the Palestinians not fire rockets into Israel the Americans should give Iron Dome to the Palestinians.
Israel would quickly stop being aggressors if there was a parity in power.”
Israel isn’t the aggressor. It is Hamas that is firing the rockets and Israel is responding to that. Hamas are the aggressors and they are clearly emboldened by the fact Biden is the POTUS now – he will do little to defend Israel’s right to self-defense and survival.
Buce
You are an ignorant fool for buying Netanyahu’s propaganda.
The occupier is always the aggressor. 5 decades of racism from the Israeli’s.
If the Palestinians said our rockets firing into Israel are aimed at military targets the propaganda would be equal.
Keep listening to the Israeli side only and you just show what a blind partisan right wing ideology you have.
guytaursays:
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 11:07 am
“Australians won’t be vaccinated this year.”
Except that 2,736,107 Australians have already been vaccinated and the numbers of vaccines available and vaccinations administered per day is increasing.
Either the ALP is terrible at English (in NAPLAN Week!) or they are liars.
One could of course question why the ALP is trying to stop Australians getting vaccinated by spreading fear and misinformation about the program?
@sallyrugg tweets
How come if childcare is a ~women’s issue~ me and Kate don’t get double what the straights get???
An article on the pros & cons of debt and deficit as they affect the US economy:
https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/how-worried-should-you-be-about-the-federal-deficit-and-debt/
Buce
I did not say that. Nice try.
@samanthamaiden tweets
Enjoying @karlstefanovic cruel “it’s Gough Whitlameque!” Budget jibes and PM looking lightly insulted but stoic – or possibly just cold in the courtyard (laughing tears emoji)
Buce
@AlboMP tweets
They’ve got no plan for getting the vaccine rollout sorted, no plan for jobs, no plan to make your life better.
Sally Rugg was very good on You Can’t Ask That
guytaur says:
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 11:43 am
The Gaza Strip isn’t occupied – Israel left it years ago.
It’s pretty simple – don’t fire rockets from Gaza and you won’t get bombed.
The Gaza strip could be another Mediterranean Riviera like Beirut used to be but the Palestinians choose to make it a dump.
guytaur @ #701 Wednesday, May 12th, 2021 – 11:48 am
Big Karl has figured out It’s Time (see what I did there? 😀 ) to be an early adopter. 🙂
Buce
You really are an idiot.
Edit: Expecting me to believe that crap.