First up, note two posts below this one dealing with ongoing electoral events: the resolution to the Tasmanian election count and the New South Wales state by-election for Upper Hunter on Saturday week.
The Guardian today reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes the monthly leadership ratings. As was the case with Newspoll, this finds Scott Morrison pulling out of the slump that followed the Brittany Higgins and Christian Porter episodes, with his approval up four to 58% and disapproval to five to 32%, without quite restoring him to the respective 62% and 29% he recorded in the March poll. The recovery has been particularly pronounced with women, among whom he is up nine points on approval to 55% and down eight on disapproval to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-28 to 50-24; Anthony Albanese’s ratings are said to be “constant compared to his standing last month”, when he had 39% approval and 34% disapproval.
The poll also finds 48% support and 27% opposition for the India travel ban, with 41% supporting jail time and fines and 33% opposed. However, 56% said they would support allowing citizens to return “provided they complete the necessary quarantine procedures when they arrive”, with 22% opposed. There was also a suite of questions on budget priorities that are probably better saved for the full poll release, which should be along later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. Albanese turns out to be steady on 39% approval and up one on disapproval to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1092.
Some notable preselection action to report:
• The Tasmanian Liberal Senate preselection has seen Eric Abetz, long the dominant figure in the state branch, dumped to the loseable number three position behind fellow incumbents Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew. A source quoted by Sue Bailey of The Mercury said Abetz won the first round of the ballot for top position with 29 votes to Duniam’s 26 and Askew’s 12, before Duniam prevailed on the second round with 36 votes to Abetz’s 31. Askew then defeated Abetz in the ballot for second position by 37 votes to 30.
• Labor’s preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe is in limbo after the Victorian Supreme Court ruled a challenge by ten unions against the federal party organisation’s takeover of the process should proceed to a trial on May 26. This complicates former state secretary Sam Rae’s bid for the seat, which was set to be signed off on by the national executive under the terms of a deal reached between elements of the Left and Right, with Rae being a member of the latter. The Age reports Rae “will be challenged by Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and former Melton council candidate Deepti Alurkar” – I’m not sure where this leaves state government minister Natalie Hutchins, earlier identified as Rae’s chief rival. Hutchins is an ally of Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who have been frozen out of the aforesaid factional deal.
• Barnaby Joyce has easily seen off a challenge for the Nationals preselection in New England from Tenterfield army officer Alex Rubin, whom he defeated in the local members’ ballot by 112 votes to 12.
From crikey/AFR this will be a massive financial free kick to corporate CEOs.
“package designed to attract global talent will include an overhaul of employee share schemes and the taxation of foreign investors and financial service providers, for example tax will no longer be payable on shares at the point an employee leaves a business (AFR $)”
They often get more in severance share bonuses than in salary!
Ahhhhhh ha! Spray has questions to answer.
When was your last Aspen trip? Do you like BBQs? Does Berejiklian have a pet name for you?
Ancient volcano secrets revealed by old Tower Hill quarry could be reburied
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-09/volcano-secrets-revealed-by-old-quarry-tower-hill-victoria/100123744
Simon Katich @ #102 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:16 am
What was that Seinfeld quote? “I’ve been outed and I wasn’t even in!”
Next Election
Labor’s message is simple. If the Coalition win they’ll cancel their spending. If Labor win, we will actually spend the money on Australians. We are on your side.
Spray @ #104 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 9:48 am
“Not that there is anything wrong with that”
‘Jaeger says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:16 am
Ancient volcano secrets revealed by old Tower Hill quarry could be reburied
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-09/volcano-secrets-revealed-by-old-quarry-tower-hill-victoria/100123744‘
An interesting values conflict, IMO.
Labor’s message is simple. If the Coalition win they’ll cancel their spending. If Labor win, we will actually spend the money on Australians. We are on your side.
This is an Election Budget, Part 1 of a two part strategy:
1. Get re-elected
2. Cuts, privatisations, deliver for mates
C@tmomma @ #100 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 9:45 am
Thanks C@t. I had read it but didnt help me much. I was put off I think by the very lond middle paragraph. Talk of “Vision” and “creating a set of competing values” sounds nice. But seems lacking. And then there is the – ‘lets represent those falling through the cracks’ which seems counter to what has been said elsewhere and is something I feel Labor (and Labour from what little I read of the UK press) tend to pitch quite well.
This is worth noting. The left and centre need to
What is your take on the article?
TPOF @ #23 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:19 am
The coalition message will be even simpler to counter this;
Labor, spending is all they know. Spending and waste! Labor just doesn’t understand economics. Can’t manage money.
Gee TPOF d’ya think it’ll work?
Thank Steve777 for the summary. You’ve spared me the effort of watching the budget coverage tonight.
regen work should always be carefully considered. Some sites that appear wrecked are actually havens for some rare species and are already reforming a viable ecosystem.
Steve777 @ #26 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:31 am
3. Get re-elected in 3 years.
Break a leg, poroti, a Tuesday morning in May being far better to have an op than a Friday afternoon in July.
_______________________________
The figures for the India ban are unsurprising, Morrison cashing in on the popularism associated with strict border control. However, when those of Indian descent – and indeed other non-white minorities (eg, Chinese) – cast their ballot, will it reinforce in them that racism was a factor in singling out India for different treatment? I have a sneaking suspicion it will.
Good luck poroti!
Timbo posted this last night. So funny I thought it should be brought over to the new thread …
https://youtu.be/MTCqXlDjx18
mundo says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:32 am
TPOF @ #23 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:19 am
Next Election
Labor’s message is simple. If the Coalition win they’ll cancel their spending. If Labor win, we will actually spend the money on Australians. We are on your side.
The coalition message will be even simpler to counter this;
Labor, spending is all they know. Spending and waste! Labor just doesn’t understand economics. Can’t manage money.
Gee TPOF d’ya think it’ll work?
______________________________
If the Coalition come out with sort of crap, Labor can just double down on the claim that the Coalition will not keep their promises.
But it depends on the media, doesn’t it? Not Albo, not Tanya and not Uncle Tom Cobley can cut through if only the Guardian reports it.
Alpha Zero @ #88 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 9:53 am
Very good ad.
The figures for the India ban are unsurprising, Morrison cashing in on the popularism associated with strict border control. However, when those of Indian descent – and indeed other non-white minorities (eg, Chinese) – cast their ballot, will it reinforce in them that racism was a factor in singling out India for different treatment? I have a sneaking suspicion it will.
_________________________________
I doubt it Mavis. Typically migrants from these countries see themselves as Australian first and often back such action.
The real question is what will happen in an actual election?
This is a very hollow government led by a hollow leader. Like all hollow things, they will eventually collapse on on themselves. The only issue is whether they can hold together the veneer until after the next election. That is a great unknown. Anyone who wants to gamble on the next election might as well bet on a coin toss.
guytaur @ #92 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:03 am
That’s why Toxic Tony failed,…oh, wait
TPOF @ #35 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:41 am
‘The real question is what will happen in an actual election? ‘
Err, you mean like, um, say….2019?
‘Like all hollow things, they will eventually collapse on on themselves.’
I keep hearing stuff like this.
But, still nothing………
TPOF @ #33 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:37 am
It depends to a large degree on how Albo, Tanya and Uncle Cobley manage the media.
That’s why Toxic Tony failed,…oh, wait
________________________________________
Toxic Tony was given a free pass by all the media at all levels – especially the ABC. He was never questioned and never put to the test. The media were only interested in tearing Julia Gillard down and, in retrospect it looks more and more like rampant sexism – with even the female commentators like Grattan and Murphy fighting to show they really had the balls to be in the Press Gallery.
That had never happened before and has not happened since – even to the slew of Liberal PMs.
It will not happen again. And if you think that anyone on the Labor side could get away with the circus and stunts that Toxic pulled now, or even a pale shadow of them, they will be torn apart by News Ltd and made to look like the joke they would deserve.
Mundo, you have been barking up the wrong tree for years. If you were a canine they neighbours would have demanded the council do something about your incessant yapping and whining years ago.
guytaur @ #98 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:15 am
And the greening of the city continues apace:
Greening Sydney Strategy – Over 15,000 trees were planted in the past 15 years and over 800,000 plants since 2009. Canopy cover has increased by 23 per cent, and parks and green spaces have expanded by 13 per cent in the past decade. Native bushland has increased by 180 per cent and 23 community and verge gardens have been established across the city.
(source Alex Greenwich)
I have a brother-in-law, he’s an ex-pat Kiwi who emigrated to Australia in the late 80’s because he saw more opportunity here than in NZ.
He is strictly coalition. He would never vote for Labor and definitely NOT greens. He’s as conservative as you can get, he subscribes to “The Australian” and Courier Mail and his idea of a good nights TV is watching Andrew Bolt or some other Fox News talking head.
It’s entirely lost on him that he’s an economic migrant and, given he has had a chronic disease all his life and has survived in Australia without huge medical bills thanks to Medicare and Labor.
Indeed while holidaying in the UK 5 years ago he had a stroke and spent weeks in a UK Hospital thanks to the reciprocal arrangements between UK and Australia which exist as they do thanks largely to the NHS and Medicare.
How does he reconcile this? He believes that Medicare is not Socialism but is “the Christian thing to do”.
I have tried to have an intelligent conversation with him but it’s basically impossible. Until such time as he is on the street begging for money or is directly impacted by Climate Change (which he doesn’t “believe” in) he will continue to vote for the LNP as they “are better managers of money” apparently.
My other Brother in law was much the same until he lost most of his small fortune to real estate scammers and being diagnosed with aggressive Alzheimer’s and now he is actually dealing with the reality of a Coalition Government he is critical but having said that he will STILL not vote Labor.
TPOF
I well remember the days when I listened to ABC radio news and the bulletin would start with “Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has …”
They would report his criticism of a government measure before reporting on the measure itself.
Albanese’s critics say he doesn’t cut through.
It doesn’t matter much what he says or does he and Labor will not get a fair go from the mainstream media.
For the last week we have had full-on Frydenberg announcements of dodgy spending.
And the cheer-squad laps it up.
Albanese knows more about infrastructure spending than most. He regularly points out the fact that the announcements are the same projects over and over.
Murdoch, Nine and Stokes ignore it, the ABC is too compromised and SBS doesn’t matter.
I hate to think what policy atrocity Morrison would have to inflict on us before his media masters would turn on him.
TPOF
Labor still has a fear of the media.
It’s why you lot won’t run a campaign like the Greens or Biden.
That’s why I am suggesting run on the rorts.
Corruption can win if Labor campaigns on it. That includes all the way back to Abbott. Remind people of Bishop’s helicopters. Do the Rolex watches. The whole shebang.
Especially where voters in marginal seats lose out.
The LNP jobs for mates wasting your money.
Let’s have an ICAC to stop this.
Labor on your side.
TPOF:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:41 am
[‘I doubt it Mavis. Typically migrants from these countries see themselves as Australian first and often back such action.’]
While there may be some truth in that, I’d suggest that
those who’ve been on the receiving end of racism never forget it and moreover become hyper-vigilant
to any comment related to race, however innocuous it might be. I’m on all four with you on the rest of your post.
Ross
Assume that. Guarantee Labor’s message through advertising.
Don’t rely on the never to come handouts from the media.
Edit: See Rudd campaign for how that works.
From the looks of things Labor may have planned to do exactly that.
Jim Chalmers on ABC earlier was pinning the budget down with some sharp and pithy criticisms.
Now I read that even a bank teller doesn’t know what the Federal Budget is. So what’s the use? 🙁
RossMcG
well remember the days when I listened to ABC radio news and the bulletin would start with “Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has …”
They would report his criticism of a government measure before reporting on the measure itself.
_______________________________
I well remember that too – especially from the ABC. In fact, despite being an inveterate politics and news tragic, it was too often the first time I’d heard of the thing that was being criticised.
It was an appalling time and anyone who was part of the press gallery then should hang their heads in shame. Other than Katharine Murphy, though, none have even begun to acknowledge how poorly they did their jobs. They were not even doing the bidding of their masters. They were just dogs with the scent of blood in their nostrils. All their masters had to do was let them run free.
‘Simon Katich says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:34 am
regen work should always be carefully considered. Some sites that appear wrecked are actually havens for some rare species and are already reforming a viable ecosystem.’
————————–
Yep. I’m part of two ‘friends’ volunteer groups and we run into these issues all the time: when to act (weed, plant, burn, kill ferals, erosion works) and when to leave well enough alone in the new circumstances.
Deception of the day:
Mavis
While there may be some truth in that, I’d suggest that
those who’ve been on the receiving end of racism never forget it and moreover become hyper-vigilant
to any comment related to race, however innocuous it might be.
_____________________________________
I agree with you on that point, but I don’t think it translates into political outcomes. I suspect that voters with an ethnic background these days still vote like most of the rest of Australia – economic self-interest. They may detest the racism, but they don’t see one side or other of politics as offering a better outcome.
And my experience is that some of the most rampant racism in Australia is among certain ethnic groups – they see themselves as both victims and superior.
The view from the Chinese side of the fence:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1223046.shtml
TPOF @ #122 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:49 am
Whatever.
You miss the point.
To say the voters don’t like toxic politics is simply wrong.
As recently as 2019 it worked a treat.
GoldenSmaug
You have described my brother-in-law to a tee. Except he’s from Yorkshire, descendent of mill owners.
I gave up talking politics to him when he was espousing the merits of then candidate Trump. I once asked my sister what he thought of Boris and Brexit. She rolled her eyes and shook her head.
Spray @ #92 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:09 am
Because you’ve been snarkily popping up of late to imply that Aunty Gladys and her Covid policies and results aren’t as bad as everyone makes them out to be?
However, my bad if I have incorrectly remembered. 🙂
lizzie @ #28 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 11:14 am
Hey there on our side?
I think I’ve heard wtte somewhere.
lizzie @ #131 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 11:14 am
Another poaching of a Labor meme. ‘The Coalition are on your side’ 🙄
lizzie @ #128 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 11:08 am
I just listened to the Political Geekfest on Zoom from The Australia Institute wrt the latest Essential poll. Dispiriting to say the least. It seems a plurality of respondents are just going to let the Budget wash through their consciousness, not knowing or caring what it’s about. 🙁
If ‘snark’ were a crime we would all be forked.
In fact, I dont know how some on here avoid being snarky. Snark seeps into you on PB without you knowing it. Like this ink into chalk. “It does get in!”
TPOF @ #122 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:49 am
‘Mundo, you have been barking up the wrong tree for years. ‘
The tree I’ve been barking up is the Liberals-are-a-pack-of-hypocritical -lying-spivs-who-have-never-done-anything-significant-to-advance -this-country-socially-or-economically-and -I-really-don’t-understand -why-people-vote-Liberal.
Is that the wrong tree?
Tell me so I can find the right tree.
I hope that Labor is well supplied with funds for advertising (or will be by the election, whenever it is) because that was how the Palmer/LNP coalition beat Shorten’s Labor, shoving their message in front of everyone’s face everywhere except the ABC.
mundo @ #34 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 11:17 am
‘they’re’
C@tmomma @ #137 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 11:16 am
Well the results self-evidently aren’t, but I have never portrayed myself as a Berejiklian supporter.
I haven’t joined the pile-on when you and some of the “gang” are having a chuckle about her physical appearance, but that hardly makes me a Liberal stooge.
Some interesting details here.
Astute Peace Lovers will note that 90% of the article focuses on a unicorn: legitimate US intel gathering. Peace Lovers will ask themselves the question: why write about this for 90% of an article before seguing into an unrelated activity?
The answer is obvious to Bludger Peace Lovers. It is in order to deflect from the ugly reality: China’s recent use of ‘maritime militias’ to conquer the Philippine’s Whitsun Reef. Only the article does does not mention ‘Whitsun Reef’. Strange omission? Not really. That omission is routine.
The only China media references to Whitsun Reef to date have been how 220 Chinese vessels were forced into Whitsun Reef to shelter from a storm. Astute Bludger Peace Lovers who tracked the publicly available metereological data would have noticed that there was no storm.
So, the ‘storm’ was the Big Lie that presaged China’s conquest of Whitsun Reef.
Was the ‘storm’ the Marco Polo Bridge reworked to suit modern times?
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1223112.shtml
I’m just irritated by the fact that the ABC is running repeat celebrations of the opening of the Homebush vax centre as if it’s the first in Australia. Sometimes I think the ABC is far too Sydneycentric.
PS I miss poroti already.
boerwar @ #134 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:45 am
Thanks BW.
Aint that the truth. It is here we find the flaws of many a seemingly good system. Soviet communism raised Russia from a backwater to a superpower but was quickly corrupted and taken over by despots… yet retaken by benevolent leaders only to fail under the burdens of a cold war it refused to lose and a system chronically and unfixably corrupted.
And you see it in China. A system under Mao that killed so many millions through some of the most stupid policies in the history of human civilisation, then to better leaders and now… to Xi with what seems a total power grab.
The 8 year rule in the US system was enlightened. Many others have similar rule but, as we have seen with Putin and Xi, rules mean nothing without a complex web of institutions, well meaning people and those willing to stand up for a system worth saving – to see and call out the inevitable system rot.
More beating of the drums of war.
I trust that the usual chorus of war drum beating condemnations will litter Bludger pages:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1223079.shtml