First up, note two posts below this one dealing with ongoing electoral events: the resolution to the Tasmanian election count and the New South Wales state by-election for Upper Hunter on Saturday week.
The Guardian today reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes the monthly leadership ratings. As was the case with Newspoll, this finds Scott Morrison pulling out of the slump that followed the Brittany Higgins and Christian Porter episodes, with his approval up four to 58% and disapproval to five to 32%, without quite restoring him to the respective 62% and 29% he recorded in the March poll. The recovery has been particularly pronounced with women, among whom he is up nine points on approval to 55% and down eight on disapproval to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-28 to 50-24; Anthony Albanese’s ratings are said to be “constant compared to his standing last month”, when he had 39% approval and 34% disapproval.
The poll also finds 48% support and 27% opposition for the India travel ban, with 41% supporting jail time and fines and 33% opposed. However, 56% said they would support allowing citizens to return “provided they complete the necessary quarantine procedures when they arrive”, with 22% opposed. There was also a suite of questions on budget priorities that are probably better saved for the full poll release, which should be along later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. Albanese turns out to be steady on 39% approval and up one on disapproval to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1092.
Some notable preselection action to report:
• The Tasmanian Liberal Senate preselection has seen Eric Abetz, long the dominant figure in the state branch, dumped to the loseable number three position behind fellow incumbents Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew. A source quoted by Sue Bailey of The Mercury said Abetz won the first round of the ballot for top position with 29 votes to Duniam’s 26 and Askew’s 12, before Duniam prevailed on the second round with 36 votes to Abetz’s 31. Askew then defeated Abetz in the ballot for second position by 37 votes to 30.
• Labor’s preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe is in limbo after the Victorian Supreme Court ruled a challenge by ten unions against the federal party organisation’s takeover of the process should proceed to a trial on May 26. This complicates former state secretary Sam Rae’s bid for the seat, which was set to be signed off on by the national executive under the terms of a deal reached between elements of the Left and Right, with Rae being a member of the latter. The Age reports Rae “will be challenged by Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and former Melton council candidate Deepti Alurkar” – I’m not sure where this leaves state government minister Natalie Hutchins, earlier identified as Rae’s chief rival. Hutchins is an ally of Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who have been frozen out of the aforesaid factional deal.
• Barnaby Joyce has easily seen off a challenge for the Nationals preselection in New England from Tenterfield army officer Alex Rubin, whom he defeated in the local members’ ballot by 112 votes to 12.
Lizzie
I don’t think that Labor could get within a bull’s roar of matching Palmer’s spend at the last election. What was it? $70 million?
And whatever they spend it will likely be matched by the free advertising for the Liberals by Murdoch, Nine and Stokes.
As egregious as the LNP hypocrisy over budget debt is, Labor should NOT focus on it for this budget. Debt is yesterday’s issue. Low wages, housing affordability and inequality are today’s issues.
So focus on flat wages. Morrison plans to open up to large scale immigration of low skilled immigrants who will have no protection from exploitation and will drive a race to the bottom over wages. Housing prices will keep getting forced up out of the reach of workers on fixed wage scales. Everybody but the boss loses. Meanwhile the wealthy pocket government assistance and get taxes reduced.
Australia needs wage justice. Now. Keep it simple, ‘cos anyone who would vote for Morrison is stupid (or in on the scam).
Simon Katich @ #108 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:32 am
My overarching take was that Labor can’t win until they create a movement that will sweep them to power again. Whitlam had policies that the Menzies Coalition were reluctant to implement but which the nation was primed to accept.
Hawke and Keating sold neoliberal economic policies with a heart. Hawkie was the charismatic leader who every Aussie bloke wanted to be like (hanging around the pool attracting loads of gorgeous birds) and Keating was the rags to riches story (left school in Year 10 but ended up living in Woolhara having got there on his smarts).
Kevin07 also marketed a story that appealed to people and Labor cannily highlighted it. Not only that but he made an offering to the electorate that appealed to their aspirations… your kid in a Public School should have a laptop too. Your family should have good quality internet. But Labor will do it without breaking the Budget. Served up with a sunny, non-threatening disposition (which is why I think Murdoch’s rags delved deep to find examples of Rudd losing it, so as to counter that image).
I must admit I’m struggling to see what can create positive momentum this time.
There’s no bad boy, like Johnson, like Hawkie, who can carry the nation with him despite his obvious flaws, leading Labor. Maybe Albanese should organise a trip to Scores or a brothel in Newtown or something in order to take a bit of paint off him that people can identify with? ‘Dirty Dog’ Albo is something a lot of men who are inclined to vote Labor can identify with. I dunno. 🙂
Rossmcg
Sadly, I think you’re right, but getting around the standard media is the only way now.
Labor’s “on your side” has to be the lamest political slogan since “we are us”.
No, on second thoughts, it’s actually worse – at least “we are us” tried to de-emphasize the fact that politicians are so out of touch with ordinary voter’s problems that they may as well be a different breed, whereas at best what “on your side” implies is “yes, we are different from you, but that’s ok because we are ‘on your side'”. At worst, it sounds like a command to docile voters – “Sit! Stay! On your side! Roll over! Vote Labor!”
Who dreams this stuff up? More to the point, who looks at it, thinks to themselves “Yeah, that encapsulates Labor values” and approves it?
I hope they at least got a money-back guarantee from whatever ad agency dreamed it up 🙁
Spray @ #145 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 11:27 am
I haven’t commented about her appearance for ages.
‘they’re’
I think youll find its “theiyr’re”
Those who are satisfied with their position at the moment aren’t going to care whether Labor is “on their side”.
What was it you were saying about snark, SK? Pedantry is its highest form?
C@tmomma @ #157 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 11:43 am
That’s good to hear. We need to be better than them.
Dandy Murray @ #160 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 11:16 am
All y’all’s are snarky.
Perhaps Labor means they are “on your side” … like a remora …
Yes. I do think a left party needs a clear set of principles and some policies to take to an election. And they need leaders who can sell it in a media environment that is toxic to them.
The three examples you gave did this. Some even courted biased media to some extent to cut through. Shorten did have a vision IMO. He and his team just couldnt sell it and they couldnt defend the detailed policies they did have. They didnt engage the biased media well. And they came up against a well resourced social media campaign in QLD.
Ten billion dollars over ten years sounds like a comically small amount of money to spend on road and rail infrastructure.
Dandy Murray @ #53 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 11:45 am
chortle
Simon Katich @ #164 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 11:57 am
Agreed. Why is this so hard for some to understand?
I detect more than a whiff of defeatism on this forum?
Why is it so?
My Great Aunt Mathilde says “ you can tell the Labor phoneys Lars, they are the ones who give up the ghost before the battle has even started. The party is better off without them…”
Player One @ #51 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 11:41 am
Been thinking the same thing.
“Mavissays:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:35 am
The figures for the India ban are unsurprising, Morrison cashing in on the popularism associated with strict border control. However, when those of Indian descent – and indeed other non-white minorities (eg, Chinese) – cast their ballot, will it reinforce in them that racism was a factor in singling out India for different treatment? I have a sneaking suspicion it will.”
Didn’t PM once said about people of Indian origin “they give it a go to get a go”.
Hmmm…. how much is the Budget premised on fabled ‘gas-led recovery’?
Nervous whispers are doing the rounds that the next target for China’s punitive list of coercive sanctions will be… LNG.
Ven @ #170 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 12:06 pm
I believe he said “They gave it a go, now they’d better go”
A reminder.
Look at what worked. Those awful black and white advertising in the cigs alcohol up days.
Focus those negative adverts on the rorts. It’s a goldmine to the waste of money. It directly attacks the good economic manager myth.
The whole point is deficits are here for a decade. The LNP cannot say they spend less than Labor. The LNP ARE the big spenders.
They are spending it on the rich at the cost to the ordinary punter.
If you are campaigning on debt you are giving Craig Kelly what he wants.
There was nothing wrong with the policies Labor took to the last election – and inevitably capital gains tax and dividend imputation especially in super will be revisited.
The problem was labor’s leader was toxic – and basically had -15 to -20 ratings for years. For strange reasons related to RGR Labor refused to address that reality.
Labor has 2 choices , hope to fluke a win, one in 28 years suggests a poor strategy or fundamental reform. It may be that the later is impossible given every leader since Crean has avoided that path.
Sadly many people on here will have been born under the Liberals (Menzies ) come of age under Howard and will die under ScoMo.
This was seven years ago, but so relevant. Watch how this extremely articulate young doctor from Toronto dealt with a mealy-mouthed Republican Senator.
Come on Labor. Repeat after me: Mediscare, Mediscare, Mediscare.
Let’s get real Medicare in this country, not the dog’s breakfast we have now. As I’ve suggested before, Albo should name a panel of eminent physicians and medical administrators and take them on a study mission to Canada to examine how an effective health and hospital system operates.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYOf6hXGx6M
Labors ‘On your side’ slogan contrasts well against the Lib rorts and theft that sees Lib mates and donors trousering taxpayers money.
“Player Onesays:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 11:41 am
Labor’s “on your side” has to be the lamest political slogan since “we are us”.
No, on second thoughts, it’s actually worse – at least “we are us” tried to de-emphasize the fact that politicians are so out of touch with ordinary voter’s problems that they may as well be a different breed, whereas at best what “on your side” implies is “yes, we are different from you, but that’s ok because we are ‘on your side’”. At worst, it sounds like a command to docile voters – “Sit! Stay! On your side! Roll over! Vote Labor!”
Who dreams this stuff up? More to the point, who looks at it, thinks to themselves “Yeah, that encapsulates Labor values” and approves it?
I hope they at least got a money-back guarantee from whatever ad agency dreamed it up ”
P1, you would be surprised to know ALP Labor values are a replica of “Know Nothing” party of 1850s of USA atleast till Whitlam became leader. I will link that article in a moment
The all time record for wasted money must be the actu your rights at work campaign in 2019. What was it 30 mill ?
The ad agency must have seen them coming from a mile away….
All the best poroti. I look forward to your return and seemingly unending source of appropriate images to go with comments that other people make.
🤞 ☘ 🌈
This shines some light on Morrison’s dodgy infrastructure “spending”
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/it-s-not-real-victoria-questions-morrison-government-infrastructure-promises-20210511-p57qt6.html
The West Australian reports today that there is $1.2 billion in the budget for the Roe 8 and 9 freeway extensions in Perth’s southern suburbs abandoned by the McGowan government.
Given the Libs started the project before the 2017 election where it was a major campaign issue and got thumped and they were still committed to it in March this year when they got thumped worse it’s about as likely to go ahead as I am to win lotto.
But Morrison’s man Ben Morton, the member for Tangney, says the money is there for the WA Government prepared to build it.
Why not spend the money on something useful? Much easier to leave it in the budget and crow about how much you are “spending” I guess.
LVT
“My Great Aunt Mathilde says “ you can tell the Labor phoneys Lars, they are the ones who give up the ghost before the battle has even started. The party is better off without them…””
For once I agree with your mythical Great Aunt.
Ven @ #177 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 12:11 pm
No, I didn’t know about them. Just looked them up. How interesting …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_Nothing
I wonder if they were the inspiration for “Sgt Schultz” …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmzsWxPLIOo
Rex Douglas @ #176 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 12:11 pm
The Libs; trousering your money.
I like it.
Also remember.
When Labor ran negative advertising they had positive campaign policy like proper Medicare.
The campaign is not policy.
poroti @ #5 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 7:03 am
Go well good fellow.
Gold Standard South Australia thank you very much…
Employees in the US voting with their feet…
https://www.newsweek.com/restaurant-signs-claim-staff-walking-out-employers-struggle-hire-1590066?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3dYNp0cvh6oU-Fye2aiNUO_OV1MDSN2wJTNdtIIap_YCy37zygZ-oAMog#Echobox=1620661561
Pleased to see Lars debating the issues, rather than obsessively shitcanning other contributors 🙂
Lars,
You are always fighting that last pre-selection battle you lost all those centuries ago. Move on if you want your opinions to be interesting to the next generation of voters.
The next Election will be decided in the Provinces. So, rusted on opinion from Victoria and Sydney won’t really count.
Plenty of Coalition retirements in WA and Queensland. So a positive swing to Labor in areas without much Murdoch influence is on the cards. Morrison does not have much push in either of those regions. Maybe they have more finely tuned BS detectors than self satisfied and smug Sydney siders. Labor will pick up a new seat in Victoria. So suddenly, the road to victory for Labor is wide open.
Plans for old men to send young men off to die in a war with an empty chair (atm) are hardly likely to be popular for the Libs.
Voters are well aware that Morrison is all promise and no delivery.
People will quickly evaluate the WIFM in this Budget and it will likely sink and we’ll be right where we are now.
Well, it’s good to know Vic officials know the primary source.
I am in agreement with the people who think that Labor will need to spend big on advertising to try and overcome the benefits that the LNP derives from our biases media. It would not need to be as big as Palmer because a lot of his spend was on full page newspaper adverts.
During the last election for every sign I saw for either Labor or LNP I would see 5 or 6 of the dark and menacing “the Bill we can’t afford” This is where I would target the spending and come up with the best slogans attributable to Morrisons big hits, the handshake, the open the borders, the sports rorts as examples. In the Labor states I would use the Premiers who have very positive followings to reinforce the Labor messaging.
Labor should run on health, a message that acknowledges,the difficulties state hospitals have because of the underfunding and take over of primary care by big business and how this directly impacts hospitals efficiency.
On Covid highlight that vaccines and Quarantine have been mismanaged because of the LNP
Highlight that relying on immigration leads to wage theft and the resultant lack of wages growth. Point out Australia shouldn’t need immigrants to fill nursing and cooks positions.
I am not ready to give up on Labor winning the next election but after 2019 do not feel at all confident, although I do,feel that WA will do better than a 2 seat gain.
A lesson from Biden.
When Labor wins and they will at some point. The attacks calling you communists and socialists give you lots os scope to be exactly that.
You won the campaign voters did not buy the communism socialist tropes the right uses.
Edit: So note the attacks on Andrews Palasczcuk McGowan and Barr. Those attacks failed. Note why that’s different for NSW Victoria and South Australia. There is how you frame your campaign
It’s going to mask up time for sure once more…
Labors ‘On your side’ slogan also contrasts well against the Libs destructive international relationships that has harmed so many Australian export businesses.
Albanese advisors would do well to study the Abbott style of Opposition campaigning and take away the really effective bits.
Labor need to hammer home three themes. 1. Poor handling of relationship with China and general unhelpful even dangerous sabre rattling.2. inability to handle climate change and being out of step with even the US on the issue 3. Sleazy old fashioned ratpack style male behaviour and inability to understand women voters. I realise that these themes will probably be buried by the media ready to reward the daggy dad for his mediocre and lazy performance but there you go that’s the disappointed that goes with being a Labor voter.
In a nutshell.
Sorry Rex, the Abbott style of opposition only works if you have a media cheersquad backing your every move.
Abbott donned the helmet and glasses and high-vis every day for the media circus. They probably send the work experience kid for Albanese.
Alpha Zero
If this turns out to be another leak from quarantine, the time line would indicate he was infected towards the end of his quarantine. How many more times will it have to happen before Morrison is forced to act on more appropriate quarantine arrangements.
1. No – the anti-China stuff plays well with the nationalist crowd on both sides of the aisle; better to talk in broad terms about restoring our standing internationally, not having a PM who embarasses us on the world stage, etc..
2. Yes – but not just “handling” it; the climate-change narrative has to be one of building a better, high-tech future full of jobs, innovation, new industry, prosperity and growth that will intrinsically tackle climate change.
3. Yes.
4. Scandals and rorts; there are/have been so many that it’s impossible to remember them all. Kinda works in the Coalition’s favor at this point, however Labor needs to find a way to weaponize it.
5. Ignore the Greens; nothing to be gained by doing anything else.