Essential Research leadership ratings and preselection latest

A second pollster suggests Scott Morrison’s recent slump to have been short-lived, as Eric Abetz gets dumped from his customary position at the top of the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket.

First up, note two posts below this one dealing with ongoing electoral events: the resolution to the Tasmanian election count and the New South Wales state by-election for Upper Hunter on Saturday week.

The Guardian today reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes the monthly leadership ratings. As was the case with Newspoll, this finds Scott Morrison pulling out of the slump that followed the Brittany Higgins and Christian Porter episodes, with his approval up four to 58% and disapproval to five to 32%, without quite restoring him to the respective 62% and 29% he recorded in the March poll. The recovery has been particularly pronounced with women, among whom he is up nine points on approval to 55% and down eight on disapproval to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-28 to 50-24; Anthony Albanese’s ratings are said to be “constant compared to his standing last month”, when he had 39% approval and 34% disapproval.

The poll also finds 48% support and 27% opposition for the India travel ban, with 41% supporting jail time and fines and 33% opposed. However, 56% said they would support allowing citizens to return “provided they complete the necessary quarantine procedures when they arrive”, with 22% opposed. There was also a suite of questions on budget priorities that are probably better saved for the full poll release, which should be along later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. Albanese turns out to be steady on 39% approval and up one on disapproval to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1092.

Some notable preselection action to report:

• The Tasmanian Liberal Senate preselection has seen Eric Abetz, long the dominant figure in the state branch, dumped to the loseable number three position behind fellow incumbents Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew. A source quoted by Sue Bailey of The Mercury said Abetz won the first round of the ballot for top position with 29 votes to Duniam’s 26 and Askew’s 12, before Duniam prevailed on the second round with 36 votes to Abetz’s 31. Askew then defeated Abetz in the ballot for second position by 37 votes to 30.

• Labor’s preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe is in limbo after the Victorian Supreme Court ruled a challenge by ten unions against the federal party organisation’s takeover of the process should proceed to a trial on May 26. This complicates former state secretary Sam Rae’s bid for the seat, which was set to be signed off on by the national executive under the terms of a deal reached between elements of the Left and Right, with Rae being a member of the latter. The Age reports Rae “will be challenged by Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and former Melton council candidate Deepti Alurkar” – I’m not sure where this leaves state government minister Natalie Hutchins, earlier identified as Rae’s chief rival. Hutchins is an ally of Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who have been frozen out of the aforesaid factional deal.

• Barnaby Joyce has easily seen off a challenge for the Nationals preselection in New England from Tenterfield army officer Alex Rubin, whom he defeated in the local members’ ballot by 112 votes to 12.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,861 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and preselection latest”

Comments Page 6 of 58
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  2. laughtong @ #245 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 2:21 pm

    Question for the engineering types on here.
    I have just received a flyer about a battery to add on to our solar panels.
    From memory we have a 5kw invertor and panels to match.

    Should I chuck it in the rubbish or might it be worth following up.
    There are only 2 in the household but home much of the time.

    Depends on many factors:

    – How much energy do you typically export with your 5kW solar install?
    – What is the feed-in rate paid on exports?
    – What is the per-kWh usage charge on imports?
    – Are you on a time-of-use energy plan?
    – How much will the battery cost, and how much energy does it store?
    – Does the battery come with offers/caveats attached, like joining a VPP pilot program?
    – Do you have, or plan on having, an EV?
    – Do you experience frequent blackouts?

    And also your goals:

    – Are you trying to generate a positive ROI?
    – Are you happy with some extra costs if it means importing less/no fossil-fired energy from the grid?

  3. @deniseshrivell tweets

    Here’s a fun budget game.

    Let’s imagine we had a Labor Govt & re-work the headlines & reporting accordingly #auspol #Budget2021

  5. P1

    Yes I think so.

    Bottom line. No matter how Labor whine about it the Greens are going to campaign to win for themselves.
    Just like any political party and politician does.

    The Greens have supported good policy. All the whining is that the timing and policy wasn’t exactly to the way Labor views it.

    So yes your conclusion is logical.

  6. a r @ #252 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 2:32 pm

    laughtong @ #245 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 2:21 pm

    Question for the engineering types on here.
    I have just received a flyer about a battery to add on to our solar panels.
    From memory we have a 5kw invertor and panels to match.

    Should I chuck it in the rubbish or might it be worth following up.
    There are only 2 in the household but home much of the time.

    Depends on many factors:

    – How much energy do you typically export with your 5kW solar install?
    – What is the feed-in rate paid on exports?
    – What is the per-kWh usage charge on imports?
    – Are you on a time-of-use energy plan?
    – How much will the battery cost, and how much energy does it store?
    – Does the battery come with offers/caveats attached, like joining a VPP pilot program?
    – Do you have, or plan on having, an EV?
    – Do you experience frequent blackouts?

    And also your goals:

    – Are you trying to generate a positive ROI?
    – Are you happy with some extra costs if it means importing less/no fossil-fired energy from the grid?

    Thanks AR
    It appears to be some sort of Pilot program. We do not export heaps, even in summer we still get a small bill. We are not on a time of use energy plan. EV unlikely and we do not get many blackouts. I am thinking to bin it, as it is not a government program but one from the installers/company
    I am only keen to keep our bills low and a battery will not help alot with that.

  7. “Rex Douglassays:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 12:54 pm
    Amy Remeikis
    @AmyRemeikis
    ·
    2m
    Childcare is not a ‘win’ for women

    Spending over 10 years is make believe (too many elections in between to be real)

    Resource prices fluctuate

    Wage growth expectations are not based in reality.

    Govt debt doesn’t matter.

    That’s it. That’s the budget. See you in 7ish hrs

    In a nutshell.”

    I wonder why do we need a lockup of journos when JF already announced what will be in budget

  8. @AlboMP tweets

    .@Mark_Butler_MP and I sat down with Omar Khorshid from the Australian Medical Association to talk about the state of the vaccine rollout, how to fix aged care, and how to set up a national quarantine system that works.

  10. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 1:59 pm
    Interesting.

    New data from Roy Morgan shows the preference for Australian-made goods increased during the COVID-19 impacted 2020, but fell for goods from Australia’s largest trading partner China. A huge majority of 93% of Australians said they are more likely to buy products made in Australia – up from 87% a year earlier. The big ‘loser’ during 2020 was Chinese-made goods with only 21% of Australians saying they’d be more likely to buy products made in China, a 9% points drop from 2019. Australian consumers are more likely to buy goods manufactured in nearest neighbour New Zealand…

    This is a good example of people saying one thing and doing another, like telling surveys they support action to help the environment but actually doing what is in their own best interests. Also, how much choice do consumers have when buying items that they can afford?

  12. P1

    I know you are joking. Please refrain. The LNP might be listening.

    A good time to remind people of Witness K and Shane Bazzi.

  14. citizen

    That’s the con. It’s not up to individuals. It’s up to corporations and governments.

    Individuals put a lot of effort into reduce reuse recycle
    The failures have all been of government and/or private sector business.

    Edit: it’s also why unions formed labour parties.

  16. “This is a good example of people saying one thing and doing another, like telling surveys they support action to help the environment but actually doing what is in their own best interests. Also, how much choice do consumers have when buying items that they can afford?”

    Theyre full of shit. Price dictates what they buy. I own a shop in Tassie that has 90% Tassie made items They still buy the 10% Chinese cheaper stuff all the time.

  17. laughtong @ #254 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 2:40 pm

    I am only keen to keep our bills low and a battery will not help alot with that.

    In general that’s correct.

    The pilot program probably means that the installer/energy company gets some control over when the battery discharges, and probably that they’d pay you a small monthly sum for the privilege. Like for example the AGL battery program pays $15/month to participants. Small change, compared to the cost of the battery.

  21. steve davis @ #267 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 2:49 pm

    This is a good example of people saying one thing and doing another, like telling surveys they support action to help the environment but actually doing what is in their own best interests. Also, how much choice do consumers have when buying items that they can afford?

    Theyre full of shit. Price dictates what they buy. I own a shop in Tassie that has 90% Tassie made items They still buy the 10% Chinese cheaper stuff all the time.

    Might be time to capitalise on new-found nationalist instincts then. make a sign saying, if you want to buy Made In China, it’s over here. However, if you want to buy Made In Tassie it’s everywhere else!

  22. laughtong,

    It won’t pay off for you at the moment, nor most people without an additional value stream to add to the equation.

    In addition, if you are at home during the day using the energy supplied by your rooftop solar, you are doing about the best you possibly can. Power export has losses and batteries have losses; using your own supply is technically and economically better for you, and the most you can fairly be expected to do in terms of reducing your carbon footprint from personal electricity use.

  26. Fears grow of China dispute spilling over into Australian LNG

    Fears are mounting that souring relations between Australia and China are set to spill over into liquefied natural gas (LNG), threatening Australia’s $13 billion export trade with the world’s biggest growth market for the fuel.

    While no sign of an impact is evident yet in trade figures, at least two of China’s second-tier LNG importer have been instructed to avoid buying cargoes from Australia, Bloomberg reported.

    Chinese government authorities gave verbal orders to the two unidentified companies to not buy additional LNG from Australia over the next year, said the report, citing unidentifed people familiar with the directive.

    The orders reportedly do not affect the major buyers of LNG, including CNOOC, Sinopec and PetroChina, all of which are significant customers of Australian ventures, either in Queensland or in Western Australia.

    Deliveries of Australian LNG to China have been on the increase, reaching a near-record last month, research firm EnergyQuest says.

    Any spreading into LNG of the trade hostilities, which have so far hurt multiple commodities from coal to barley could be serious given the dependence on China of several Australian LNG exporters.

    The report on the latest moves has resurfaced when the Asian LNG market is tightening again, with the benchmark LNG spot price for June in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – known as JKM – reaching $US9.65 per million British thermal units on Monday. It has recovered from less than $US2/MMBTU in the June quarter of 2020.

    “Politics ultimately get overwhelmed by the weather,” Dr Bethune said.

    “In Asia buyers are all stocking up on LNG again and JKM is now into numbers starting with a nine, so any political issue like this is likely to be fairly minor compared to global supply and demand forces.”

    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/fears-grow-of-china-dispute-spilling-over-into-australian-lng-20210511-p57qqu

  27. Cud Chewer says:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 1:46 pm
    “Question for the financially minded..

    Are there fixed term deposit accounts you’d recommend? The best I’ve seen are offering a whopping 1 (or thereabouts).

    Are there managed investments that do much better than this? Yes, I’m aware of super funds, but that also brings its own rules and complexity. Just straightforward investment.”

    It’s illegal to give financial advice without a licence.

  28. Navy goes full speed ahead on South China Sea transits

    Australian warships have already conducted four transits of the South China Sea this year, intensifying the tempo of operations in the heavily contested waterway amid growing tensions with China.

    The navy last week publicised that three of the navy’s Anzac class frigates, Anzac, Ballarat and Parramatta, along with replenishment vessel HMAS Sirius, had sailed through the southern reaches of the South China Sea.

    Four Australian navy warships completed a transit of the South China Sea last week.

    The pace of this year’s transits – four in the first five months – compares with six across all of 2020, Defence officials confirmed.

    “{The ships} are currently conducting two separate regional presence deployments aimed at strengthening practical co-operation with regional partners and enhancing interoperability,” the Defence Department said in a statement.

    “These deployments demonstrate Australia’s resolve for an open, inclusive and resilient Indo-Pacific, and are conducted in international waters and in accordance with international law in relation to freedom of navigation and overflight, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.”

    Anzac and Sirius transited through the South China Sea in mid-March, while Anzac participated in “tactical training” with Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force vessel JS Akebono in late March.

    In mid-April, Anzac and Sirius joined French warships the Tonnerre and Surcouf for exercises across the South China Sea and northern Indian Ocean.

    “It’s a pretty active tempo and signifies we’re not vacating the field,” said Rory Medcalf, head of the Australian National University’s National Security College.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/navy-goes-full-speed-ahead-on-south-china-sea-transits-20210507-p57pru

  30. Out in the car I heard a few answers in QT. The Coalition theme seemed to be: we have listened and all the budget is targeted to your needs. (And anyone who questions that, such as Albo or Bandt, doesn’t know what they’re talking about.)

    Smug and self-satisfied.

  31. Lines of dispute with China are getting sharper

    Record iron ore prices are certainly not the only reason Josh Frydenberg can spend tens of billions of dollars more yet still boast of an improving bottom line. But with recent prices nearly four times the conservative $US55 a tonne predicted in the last budget, China’s demand for iron ore provides a generous buffer for Canberra’s own largesse.

    That open spigot of money from Beijing may not be a permanent feature but the sunny outlook for Australia’s key export and Australia’s budget revenue is unlikely to change in the short term.

    Despite its best efforts, China still has no alternative supply yet available either from potential new mines in Africa or from a decimated and distracted Brazil.

    Other Australian export industries are, of course, far less protected from the deep freeze in diplomatic relations and increasingly heated rhetoric on both sides. Even with the surging strength of the domestic economy overall, that translates into some gaps in Australia’s recovery.

    From punitive tariffs on wine to restrictions on beef and coal imports to warning Chinese students off signing up to Australian university courses, Beijing is determined to make Australia pay for displeasing China.

    The rupture in the relationship has been several years in the making, but with abrupt signs of deterioration over the past year that seem certain to continue indefinitely. Lines of dispute are getting sharper rather than conveniently blurred.

    https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/digging-a-ditch-with-china-20210510-p57qkq

  32. @politicaltragic
    ·
    10m
    Well done(not)@abcnews for cutting into #QT to go to a Vic Covid announcement when
    @billshortenmp was to ask the appalling Robert a Q. on the #NDIS.

  33. Vulnerable education market must diversify away from China

    Education is the only remaining Australian export market to China worth more than $10 billion that Beijing could target without inflicting significant harm on its own economy, a new report says.

    Last week’s suspension of the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue and reports that education agents have been instructed to discourage students from coming to Australia have raised alarm that the lucrative $12 billion sector is at risk of collapse following a 23 per cent decline in enrolments in the past year.

    Given the potential vulnerabilities of the education market, Australia must adopt a more concerted and co-ordinated approach to diversifying countries from which students are sourced, a report from the National Security College at Australian National University says.

    “Education is more employment-intensive than mining or agriculture. Education employed 1.07 million people at the end of 2019. Agriculture, fishing and forestry employed 318,800 people. Mining employed 251,200 people,” the report notes.

    Dr van der Kley said a co-ordinated approach to strategy and marketing that targeted smaller, untapped markets such as Bangladesh, Indonesia and Nigeria could help fill the gaping hole left if Chinese students stopped enrolling.

    “It is possible to get students from other countries, with the recognition that it’s not going to be easy, and we’re not going to replace all the students should there be a large drop-off from China,” Dr van der Kley said.

    https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/vulnerable-education-market-must-diversify-away-from-china-20210511-p57qqs

  36. On education

    We should change funding models.
    In the meantime we can just market to India instead. Oh wait ………

  37. Jeez, dave. Take a lesson from boerwar and at least break up the rampant Sinophobia a little with something else. Boerwar chose Greta. Perhaps you could do the Kiwis? Lots of possibilities there!

  38. Tony Burke
    @Tony_Burke
    ·
    5m
    House right now. I’ve moved Laming be discharged from the education committee. He never resigned.

  40. C@tMomma:

    Something like capitalism with a heart.

    Capitalism with a brain would be better.

    The problem with “conservative” pseudo-capitalism is not that it’s heartless, but instead that it is religious—the worship of Mammon—and hence brainless.

    It’s not a coincidence that “prosperity theology”—amongst the most serious heresies—has infected both “conservative” politics and “conservative” religious practice

  41. Ewart Dave
    @davidbewart
    ·
    1m
    gag motion has passed 68-74

    Burke will “no longer be heard” for criticising Andrew Laming

  45. There is often comment about the need for more Independents to break up the “Lib-Lab cabal” (silly name).

    What’s the point when they invariably support the Libs?

  46. Huge amounts of money will be thrown around by Josh F. tonight. $10 billion here, 18 billion there etc etc. How much will voters actually take in before they just switch off ? For ordinary Australians the billions of dollars might just be all noise. How much is too much for people to take in and actually relate to ?

    I wonder if the government will go too far and spread its largeness too wide. Morrison is using the pandemic to get as much money out the door to cauterize his open wounds around aged care etc etc. The trouble is Morrison has a lot of open wounds and perhaps he runs the chance of having too many fronts to protect when the gaps between rhetoric and reality begin to emerge. And they will emerge once interest groups dig deep into the detail and budget estimates gets under way.

    Will the voters care or even be listening or will they simply turn off at the huge amount of dollars and promises being thrown around ?

    At what point do people simply turn off as the dollar amounts get too big to have any real world relevance to punters who are simply trying to get through each day. What does 10 billion here, 18 billion there actually mean ? Nothing but numbers ?

    I have no idea how the average disengaged Australian thinks. However, it will be interesting to watch.

  50. “NSW Labor forced to delete website it purchased in the name of Gladys Berejiklian”

    “NSW Labor has been forced to delete a prominent website it purchased in the name of Premier Gladys Berejiklian following a ruling handed down by the country’s internet domain name administration authority, just weeks after it attacked political opponents for engaging in the same tactics.”

    “Last month NSW Labor leader Jodi McKay criticised the NSW National Party and Deputy Premier John Barilaro for allegedly engaging in similar tactics using websites registered in the names of political opponents.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/nsw-labor-forced-to-delete-website-it-purchased-in-the-name-of-gladys-berejiklian/news-story/a77fed86e252f2a50d7d7415e4ee70a7

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