Essential Research leadership ratings and preselection latest

A second pollster suggests Scott Morrison’s recent slump to have been short-lived, as Eric Abetz gets dumped from his customary position at the top of the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket.

First up, note two posts below this one dealing with ongoing electoral events: the resolution to the Tasmanian election count and the New South Wales state by-election for Upper Hunter on Saturday week.

The Guardian today reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes the monthly leadership ratings. As was the case with Newspoll, this finds Scott Morrison pulling out of the slump that followed the Brittany Higgins and Christian Porter episodes, with his approval up four to 58% and disapproval to five to 32%, without quite restoring him to the respective 62% and 29% he recorded in the March poll. The recovery has been particularly pronounced with women, among whom he is up nine points on approval to 55% and down eight on disapproval to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-28 to 50-24; Anthony Albanese’s ratings are said to be “constant compared to his standing last month”, when he had 39% approval and 34% disapproval.

The poll also finds 48% support and 27% opposition for the India travel ban, with 41% supporting jail time and fines and 33% opposed. However, 56% said they would support allowing citizens to return “provided they complete the necessary quarantine procedures when they arrive”, with 22% opposed. There was also a suite of questions on budget priorities that are probably better saved for the full poll release, which should be along later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. Albanese turns out to be steady on 39% approval and up one on disapproval to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1092.

Some notable preselection action to report:

• The Tasmanian Liberal Senate preselection has seen Eric Abetz, long the dominant figure in the state branch, dumped to the loseable number three position behind fellow incumbents Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew. A source quoted by Sue Bailey of The Mercury said Abetz won the first round of the ballot for top position with 29 votes to Duniam’s 26 and Askew’s 12, before Duniam prevailed on the second round with 36 votes to Abetz’s 31. Askew then defeated Abetz in the ballot for second position by 37 votes to 30.

• Labor’s preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe is in limbo after the Victorian Supreme Court ruled a challenge by ten unions against the federal party organisation’s takeover of the process should proceed to a trial on May 26. This complicates former state secretary Sam Rae’s bid for the seat, which was set to be signed off on by the national executive under the terms of a deal reached between elements of the Left and Right, with Rae being a member of the latter. The Age reports Rae “will be challenged by Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and former Melton council candidate Deepti Alurkar” – I’m not sure where this leaves state government minister Natalie Hutchins, earlier identified as Rae’s chief rival. Hutchins is an ally of Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who have been frozen out of the aforesaid factional deal.

• Barnaby Joyce has easily seen off a challenge for the Nationals preselection in New England from Tenterfield army officer Alex Rubin, whom he defeated in the local members’ ballot by 112 votes to 12.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,861 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and preselection latest”

Comments Page 7 of 58
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  1. “Give us back our dues, union members tell Labor”

    “Victorian unions representing 85,000 workers will on Tuesday formally ask the ALP to return hundreds of thousands of dollars in affiliation fees, threatening Anthony Albanese’s campaign war chest ahead of the next election.

    The Australian has seen a draft letter to be sent to ALP national secretary Paul Erickson that will escalate the battle among the ALP’s head office, the Opposition Leader and a group of Victorian unions that includes the CFMEU and Australian Workers Union.”

    “CFMEU national political organiser Elizabeth Doidge — a close ally of Mr Albanese’s union nemesis John Setka — accused the Labor leader of not believing in party democracy.

    “Anthony Albanese’s lawyers categorically stated in the ­Supreme Court last week that union-affiliated fees ‘give no seat at the table’. It shows how ­little regard Albo has for the union members who financially support the party,” she said.

    “Albanese’s lawyers stated that affiliation fees ‘give a sense of entitlement, but give rise to no claim’ to democracy within the party. This shows the entitlement of leader who takes unions and their members for granted.””

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/give-us-back-our-dues-union-members-tell-labor/news-story/15956960826036bd6de79e78cd3a027e

  2. lizzie @ #281 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 3:35 pm

    Out in the car I heard a few answers in QT. The Coalition theme seemed to be: we have listened and all the budget is targeted to your needs. (And anyone who questions that, such as Albo or Bandt, doesn’t know what they’re talking about.)

    Smug and self-satisfied.

    I actually just saw that knobhead Deputy Prime Minister Michael mcCormack, try and get a run with, ‘All the years you lot were in power you never brought down one Surplus Budget!’

    And they have!?!

  3. C@tmomma @ #154 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 11:40 am

    Simon Katich @ #108 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:32 am

    C@tmomma @ #100 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 9:45 am

    Simon Katich @ #95 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:14 am

    Labor will not change its leader prior to the election. We either get behind Albo & Labor fully. Now. Or continue grumblings abt personality & whatever – that will sabotage any chance of kicking this current mob out. Decent, honest, government is what we need.

    Sure, but the crooks have been in power for donkeys and the head chook of the crooks is as popular as lollies. So either peeps dont give a rats about decent honest government or the message isnt getting out. Yet.

    Please read this to understand the situation as it applies to both Morrison and Johnson:
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/10/retail-politics-movements-polarising-projects-promise

    Thanks C@t. I had read it but didnt help me much. I was put off I think by the very lond middle paragraph. Talk of “Vision” and “creating a set of competing values” sounds nice. But seems lacking. And then there is the – ‘lets represent those falling through the cracks’ which seems counter to what has been said elsewhere and is something I feel Labor (and Labour from what little I read of the UK press) tend to pitch quite well.

    This is worth noting. The left and centre need to

    reckon with the cruel and self-interested economic, media and political culture that continues to attract voters to the right. It means less “forensic” caution.

    What is your take on the article?

    My overarching take was that Labor can’t win until they create a movement that will sweep them to power again. Whitlam had policies that the Menzies Coalition were reluctant to implement but which the nation was primed to accept.

    Hawke and Keating sold neoliberal economic policies with a heart. Hawkie was the charismatic leader who every Aussie bloke wanted to be like (hanging around the pool attracting loads of gorgeous birds) and Keating was the rags to riches story (left school in Year 10 but ended up living in Woolhara having got there on his smarts).

    Kevin07 also marketed a story that appealed to people and Labor cannily highlighted it. Not only that but he made an offering to the electorate that appealed to their aspirations… your kid in a Public School should have a laptop too. Your family should have good quality internet. But Labor will do it without breaking the Budget. Served up with a sunny, non-threatening disposition (which is why I think Murdoch’s rags delved deep to find examples of Rudd losing it, so as to counter that image).

    I must admit I’m struggling to see what can create positive momentum this time.

    There’s no bad boy, like Johnson, like Hawkie, who can carry the nation with him despite his obvious flaws, leading Labor. Maybe Albanese should organise a trip to Scores or a brothel in Newtown or something in order to take a bit of paint off him that people can identify with? ‘Dirty Dog’ Albo is something a lot of men who are inclined to vote Labor can identify with. I dunno. 🙂

    Thank you C@t.
    You’ve finally put into words what I have failed dismally tried to say. Labor need a spark……from somewhere.

  4. guytaur

    A friend has been urging me to apply for a Home Care Package, but I won’t, because I see no reason to provide gov money to some supervising contractor who frankly doesn’t have to do much to earn it. So I suppose in that way I can compensate for my expensive medication that keeps me pain free.

  5. Remember this if the Coalition try and hack away at the NDIS:

    Giancarlo de Vera Red heart Disability | Rainbow
    @gdevera

    Finally some honest reporting on the supposed #NDIS budget blow out. $30B was estimated back in 2017 by PC. The NDIS isn’t costing more than originally estimated, so I can’t wait to see how the Govt will portray this in the forward estimates
    @criprights
    https://amp.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ndis-on-track-with-forecast-budget-despite-morrison-s-claim-of-cost-blowouts-20210511-p57qt1.html

  7. China inbound tourism to Australia was worth around $3.25 billion pre-Covid.

    This is a far easier internal target for Xi, bearing in mind that Chinese inbound students may be intent on the relatively cheap high quality educational product as well as on using education as a back door to residency.

    There have already been internal announcements that basically leave the choice up to individuals but which are somewhat hedged. The flat out total ban must be in the offing.

    During Covid it has made sense for China not to deploy either the student or the tourist weapon. These weapons only become meaningful when it looks as if individuals in China may choose Australia post-Covid for either education or tourism.

    In the interim no doubt the agile and innovative Morrison Government has spent a motsa supporting providers to diversify their o/s client sources away from China.

  8. lizzie
    Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 4:13 pm – NEW!
    Comment #298

    Please engage the scrambler.

    I thought the reduction of one item from $93 was going well.

    Adjust scrambler for eggs setting.

    Chatting with youngest daughter last week, she mentioned the cost of an item at Hungry J***s at $15. I compared that with the supposed $6 per day perhaps at some Aged Care Facilities. Not sure she understands.

    On the other hand, her husband and youngest son gave her a new washing machine for Mothers’ Day. 😨

  9. dave
    Apart from whole of commodity punishments, another serial tactic of the Chinese coercive trade bans has been to ban individual companies or suppliers.
    LNG looks to be a perfect playing field for this form of Chinese bullying bastardy.

  10. Thank you to those who responded to my question about batteries. I am binning the flyer. Not for us at this point.

  11. KayJay

    I understand that Maggie Beer proved that much, much better food is possible for not much more money when talented cooks are involved rather than “bulk caterers”. Too much trouble, of course.

  13. Astute Bludger Peace Lovers will no doubt have noticed with their traditional ennui the recent joint naval exercises between China and Indonesia.

  17. Mark Dreyfus
    @markdreyfusQCMP
    Mr Morrison and every other member of his Government just voted to give Andrew Laming another $22,000 a year! They gagged @Tony_Burke so they could keep him as paid chair of a committee Mr Morrison said he would give up.

  18. BW,

    I broke my “traditional ennui”last year when I fell off the couch again.

    I bought it an Op shop for $3. Absolute bargain. I still miss it.

    Nowadays I have to rely on the pretentious bullshitterometer my grand father gave me when I was young and callow just to get through the day.

  19. I think Albanese is finally finding his sass:

    Anthony Albanese
    @AlboMP
    ·
    56m
    The Liberals are spending more time gagging Labor and defending Andrew Laming remaining Chair of a Parliamentary Committee than Andrew Laming spent on his online “empathy” course #shame

  20. Bucephalus

    Thank you. I’ve had an assessment for the lowest level but frankly the care provided is practically useless.

  21. Did anyone see Craig Kelly explaining just how much debt Australia is in with his pallet worth of printed $100 notes?
    He has done a much better job than Labor at explaining this, perhaps the ALP could even use this piece in advertising in the election campaign seeing they aren’t capable of mounting an explanation themselves.
    It could be over to Craig Kelly for the “Cheat Sheet”

  22. Veteran Tasmanian Liberal senator Eric Abetz has suggested he is a victim of “ageism and sexism” after being demoted to third place on his party’s Senate ticket.
    …
    “Winston Churchill became wartime prime minister at 71 … [Joe Biden] is 78, and before that Donald Trump, Ronald Reagan all started their presidency in their 70s,” Senator Abetz said.

    “When you’re balancing budgets, when you’re dealing with China, when you’re dealing with wokeism, you need men and women of courage, capacity, intellect, advocacy skills — all those things.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-11/eric-abetz-claims-ageism-and-sexism-in-senate-ticket-demotion/100131736

  23. Kelly will no doubt vote for the LNP budget despite his publicity stunt.

    We’re heading for a trillion dollar debt which he is totally opposed to but will use his vote to allow to happen.

    Is he serious?

  24. The Government will get a boost from this budget. After all, it’s being framed as a spending budget, leaving Labor nowhere to go.

    The vaccine roll out is picking up pace, and COVID appears to be under control.

    I think Morrison has reclaimed a fair bit of lost ground after the horrors they were in when the Porter affair broke.

    It’s pretty depressing for the progressive side of politics.

    I wish I could be more upbeat, but I feel like this coming election is like 2001 all over again.

  26. You’re welcome C@t.
    Don’t take this the wrong way but your post’s are so much better when you don’t fly off the handle at anything that is remotely anti Labor.

    There are a number of poster’s whose comments I look forward to and a few who I think meh.

    Anyway long life and happiness to you. The world would be so beige without people like you and the other denizens of this site.

  27. Lizzie

    I don’t blame you. I hope we get a Labor government to fix it so you can have the NDIS Home Care Bill Shorten envisaged. It’s a big pity you have to make that choice.

  29. Lynchpin

    See Biden. Trump tried the spending claims, it enabled the Democrats to dump Reaganism wholesale.

    It was one of the things almost all the Primary candidates had in common.

  30. Bert,
    As my eldest son said to me one day, “I’m Owen.” That’s all. Cryptic. But I soon figured out what he meant. So all I can say is, ‘I’m C@tmomma.’ Love me or loathe me, what you see is what you get.

  31. Greensborough Growler @ #323 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 5:20 pm

    Kelly will no doubt vote for the LNP budget despite his publicity stunt.

    We’re heading for a trillion dollar debt which he is totally opposed to but will use his vote to allow to happen.

    Is he serious?

    Craig Kelly is a usueful idiot for the Morrison government. And he probably got to keep Frank Zumbo on staff, a seasoned Liberal political operative. Morrison probably sees that as a win-win.

  32. Cat

    “I think Albanese is finally finding his sass:

    Anthony Albanese
    @AlboMP
    ·
    56m
    The Liberals are spending more time gagging Labor and defending Andrew Laming remaining Chair of a Parliamentary Committee than Andrew Laming spent on his online “empathy” course #shame”

    I think the voter has moved on. This Government has set the bar so low that people now expect this type of indecency. I think they don’t care because, like me, they are all too bloody tired and come election time they will vote for “stability” and it will be the economy; and as usual Labor will get bashed about the ears by most of the media.

    Albo really needs to pull a very big rabbit out of the hat on Thursday to kick start things for Labor.

    It is thoroughly depressing.


  33. Cameron says:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 5:11 pm

    Did anyone see Craig Kelly explaining just how much debt Australia is in with his pallet worth of printed $100 notes?
    He has done a much better job than Labor at explaining this, perhaps the ALP could even use this piece in advertising in the election campaign seeing they aren’t capable of mounting an explanation themselves.
    It could be over to Craig Kelly for the “Cheat Sheet”

    And as a federal budget has always been about balancing an economy it was about as useful as the debt truck.

  34. Thanks for the response Guytaur, but I seriously think the media is not as sophisticated as the media in the US; and sadly I think voters here are more apathetic than in the US.

    If Labor tries to outspend the Government, they will get bashed about the ears.

    I know I am sounding like mundo, but I’m not in a positive space for politics at the moment.

  35. Lynchpin,
    When you have a government shameless enough to nick Sally McManus’ best ideas to deal with the pandemic and Labor’s best ideas now, frankly, I’d be satisfied with someone, anyone, producing a photo of Scott Morrison en flagrante with a goat and a stick of butter in order to bring the bastard lower than even he lets his MPs get away with! 😆

  36. Lynchpin,
    People thought Menzies and Howard would be carried out in a box from the PM’s office. They weren’t.

  38. Lizzie,

    While I admire your pukka, you need to be thinking further down the line.

    You need to get yourself in to the system at a base level so you can upgrade when required.

    Everyone assumes their on going good health. But, unfortunately the afflictions of age can come on very quickly and your assumptions about your ability to manage your life can dissipate suddenly and catastrophically.

    Look to the future needs so you can ensure there is a life that you can live with.

    Cheers

  39. Lynchpin

    In other words don’t be depressed.

    I now know money is being spent on campaigns around the budget. I got a fundraising letter for a small donation from The Victorian Trades Hall Council for an advertisement.

    I don’t know how I got on their mailing list but was happy to chip in.

  42. GG

    It’s OK I am in the lowest level of care already.

    I remind myself of a vintage car where bits occasionally fall off, the steering is unreliable and she can’t manage all the hills but the brakes are in good nick and the driver still has her marbles.

  43. boerwar @ #308 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 4:43 pm

    dave
    Apart from whole of commodity punishments, another serial tactic of the Chinese coercive trade bans has been to ban individual companies or suppliers.
    LNG looks to be a perfect playing field for this form of Chinese bullying bastardy.

    World markets aren’t co-operative with Xi though. Not that his trade punishments aren’t hurting some Aussie exporters, but that its not hurting our overall economy as much as he’d like.

    Not that Xi would give a damn, but its not helping China much either.

    Iron Ore is clearly the big one he’d like to stop. But give it time.

  44. C@t, you along with many others get a thumbs up from me (can’t do those emoji things). Even those who I don’t agree with most of the time get the thumbs up every now and then when they say something intelligent about the subject being discussed.

    Anyhoo, be good and and if you can’t be careful.

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