First up, note two posts below this one dealing with ongoing electoral events: the resolution to the Tasmanian election count and the New South Wales state by-election for Upper Hunter on Saturday week.
The Guardian today reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes the monthly leadership ratings. As was the case with Newspoll, this finds Scott Morrison pulling out of the slump that followed the Brittany Higgins and Christian Porter episodes, with his approval up four to 58% and disapproval to five to 32%, without quite restoring him to the respective 62% and 29% he recorded in the March poll. The recovery has been particularly pronounced with women, among whom he is up nine points on approval to 55% and down eight on disapproval to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-28 to 50-24; Anthony Albanese’s ratings are said to be “constant compared to his standing last month”, when he had 39% approval and 34% disapproval.
The poll also finds 48% support and 27% opposition for the India travel ban, with 41% supporting jail time and fines and 33% opposed. However, 56% said they would support allowing citizens to return “provided they complete the necessary quarantine procedures when they arrive”, with 22% opposed. There was also a suite of questions on budget priorities that are probably better saved for the full poll release, which should be along later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. Albanese turns out to be steady on 39% approval and up one on disapproval to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1092.
Some notable preselection action to report:
• The Tasmanian Liberal Senate preselection has seen Eric Abetz, long the dominant figure in the state branch, dumped to the loseable number three position behind fellow incumbents Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew. A source quoted by Sue Bailey of The Mercury said Abetz won the first round of the ballot for top position with 29 votes to Duniam’s 26 and Askew’s 12, before Duniam prevailed on the second round with 36 votes to Abetz’s 31. Askew then defeated Abetz in the ballot for second position by 37 votes to 30.
• Labor’s preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe is in limbo after the Victorian Supreme Court ruled a challenge by ten unions against the federal party organisation’s takeover of the process should proceed to a trial on May 26. This complicates former state secretary Sam Rae’s bid for the seat, which was set to be signed off on by the national executive under the terms of a deal reached between elements of the Left and Right, with Rae being a member of the latter. The Age reports Rae “will be challenged by Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and former Melton council candidate Deepti Alurkar” – I’m not sure where this leaves state government minister Natalie Hutchins, earlier identified as Rae’s chief rival. Hutchins is an ally of Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who have been frozen out of the aforesaid factional deal.
• Barnaby Joyce has easily seen off a challenge for the Nationals preselection in New England from Tenterfield army officer Alex Rubin, whom he defeated in the local members’ ballot by 112 votes to 12.
“Give us back our dues, union members tell Labor”
“Victorian unions representing 85,000 workers will on Tuesday formally ask the ALP to return hundreds of thousands of dollars in affiliation fees, threatening Anthony Albanese’s campaign war chest ahead of the next election.
The Australian has seen a draft letter to be sent to ALP national secretary Paul Erickson that will escalate the battle among the ALP’s head office, the Opposition Leader and a group of Victorian unions that includes the CFMEU and Australian Workers Union.”
“CFMEU national political organiser Elizabeth Doidge — a close ally of Mr Albanese’s union nemesis John Setka — accused the Labor leader of not believing in party democracy.
“Anthony Albanese’s lawyers categorically stated in the Supreme Court last week that union-affiliated fees ‘give no seat at the table’. It shows how little regard Albo has for the union members who financially support the party,” she said.
“Albanese’s lawyers stated that affiliation fees ‘give a sense of entitlement, but give rise to no claim’ to democracy within the party. This shows the entitlement of leader who takes unions and their members for granted.””
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/give-us-back-our-dues-union-members-tell-labor/news-story/15956960826036bd6de79e78cd3a027e
lizzie @ #281 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 3:35 pm
I actually just saw that knobhead Deputy Prime Minister Michael mcCormack, try and get a run with, ‘All the years you lot were in power you never brought down one Surplus Budget!’
And they have!?!
C@tmomma @ #154 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 11:40 am
Thank you C@t.
You’ve finally put into words what I have failed dismally tried to say. Labor need a spark……from somewhere.
guytaur
A friend has been urging me to apply for a Home Care Package, but I won’t, because I see no reason to provide gov money to some supervising contractor who frankly doesn’t have to do much to earn it. So I suppose in that way I can compensate for my expensive medication that keeps me pain free.
Remember this if the Coalition try and hack away at the NDIS:
Giancarlo de Vera Red heart Disability | Rainbow
@gdevera
Finally some honest reporting on the supposed #NDIS budget blow out. $30B was estimated back in 2017 by PC. The NDIS isn’t costing more than originally estimated, so I can’t wait to see how the Govt will portray this in the forward estimates
@criprights
https://amp.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ndis-on-track-with-forecast-budget-despite-morrison-s-claim-of-cost-blowouts-20210511-p57qt1.html
Thanks, Bert. 🙂
China inbound tourism to Australia was worth around $3.25 billion pre-Covid.
This is a far easier internal target for Xi, bearing in mind that Chinese inbound students may be intent on the relatively cheap high quality educational product as well as on using education as a back door to residency.
There have already been internal announcements that basically leave the choice up to individuals but which are somewhat hedged. The flat out total ban must be in the offing.
During Covid it has made sense for China not to deploy either the student or the tourist weapon. These weapons only become meaningful when it looks as if individuals in China may choose Australia post-Covid for either education or tourism.
In the interim no doubt the agile and innovative Morrison Government has spent a motsa supporting providers to diversify their o/s client sources away from China.
lizzie
Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 4:13 pm – NEW!
Comment #298
Please engage the scrambler.
I thought the reduction of one item from $93 was going well.
Adjust scrambler for eggs setting.
Chatting with youngest daughter last week, she mentioned the cost of an item at Hungry J***s at $15. I compared that with the supposed $6 per day perhaps at some Aged Care Facilities. Not sure she understands.
On the other hand, her husband and youngest son gave her a new washing machine for Mothers’ Day. 😨
dave
Apart from whole of commodity punishments, another serial tactic of the Chinese coercive trade bans has been to ban individual companies or suppliers.
LNG looks to be a perfect playing field for this form of Chinese bullying bastardy.
Thank you to those who responded to my question about batteries. I am binning the flyer. Not for us at this point.
KayJay
I understand that Maggie Beer proved that much, much better food is possible for not much more money when talented cooks are involved rather than “bulk caterers”. Too much trouble, of course.
PS I once ate at Hugry Jacks. Never again.
Astute Bludger Peace Lovers will no doubt have noticed with their traditional ennui the recent joint naval exercises between China and Indonesia.
If demography is destiny then…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/11/analysis-chinas-ageing-population-predicament-global-implications-east-asia
laughtong @ #310 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 4:44 pm
Isn’t PB amazing? 🙂
lizzie says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 4:33 pm
At least get an ACAT Assessment done so if you do need it you don’t have to wait so long.
BW,
I broke my “traditional ennui”last year when I fell off the couch again.
I bought it an Op shop for $3. Absolute bargain. I still miss it.
Nowadays I have to rely on the pretentious bullshitterometer my grand father gave me when I was young and callow just to get through the day.
I think Albanese is finally finding his sass:
Anthony Albanese
@AlboMP
·
56m
The Liberals are spending more time gagging Labor and defending Andrew Laming remaining Chair of a Parliamentary Committee than Andrew Laming spent on his online “empathy” course #shame
Bucephalus
Thank you. I’ve had an assessment for the lowest level but frankly the care provided is practically useless.
Did anyone see Craig Kelly explaining just how much debt Australia is in with his pallet worth of printed $100 notes?
He has done a much better job than Labor at explaining this, perhaps the ALP could even use this piece in advertising in the election campaign seeing they aren’t capable of mounting an explanation themselves.
It could be over to Craig Kelly for the “Cheat Sheet”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-11/eric-abetz-claims-ageism-and-sexism-in-senate-ticket-demotion/100131736
Kelly will no doubt vote for the LNP budget despite his publicity stunt.
We’re heading for a trillion dollar debt which he is totally opposed to but will use his vote to allow to happen.
Is he serious?
The Government will get a boost from this budget. After all, it’s being framed as a spending budget, leaving Labor nowhere to go.
The vaccine roll out is picking up pace, and COVID appears to be under control.
I think Morrison has reclaimed a fair bit of lost ground after the horrors they were in when the Porter affair broke.
It’s pretty depressing for the progressive side of politics.
I wish I could be more upbeat, but I feel like this coming election is like 2001 all over again.
Eric is a victim of Voteism. It’s a nasty side effect of losing relevance.
You’re welcome C@t.
Don’t take this the wrong way but your post’s are so much better when you don’t fly off the handle at anything that is remotely anti Labor.
There are a number of poster’s whose comments I look forward to and a few who I think meh.
Anyway long life and happiness to you. The world would be so beige without people like you and the other denizens of this site.
Lizzie
I don’t blame you. I hope we get a Labor government to fix it so you can have the NDIS Home Care Bill Shorten envisaged. It’s a big pity you have to make that choice.
Murdoch continues to buying up Australia without any restrictions:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/all-eyes-on-news-corp-as-lachlan-murdoch-returns-to-town-20210506-p57pkg.html
Lynchpin
See Biden. Trump tried the spending claims, it enabled the Democrats to dump Reaganism wholesale.
It was one of the things almost all the Primary candidates had in common.
Bert,
As my eldest son said to me one day, “I’m Owen.” That’s all. Cryptic. But I soon figured out what he meant. So all I can say is, ‘I’m C@tmomma.’ Love me or loathe me, what you see is what you get.
Greensborough Growler @ #323 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 5:20 pm
Craig Kelly is a usueful idiot for the Morrison government. And he probably got to keep Frank Zumbo on staff, a seasoned Liberal political operative. Morrison probably sees that as a win-win.
Cat
“I think Albanese is finally finding his sass:
Anthony Albanese
@AlboMP
·
56m
The Liberals are spending more time gagging Labor and defending Andrew Laming remaining Chair of a Parliamentary Committee than Andrew Laming spent on his online “empathy” course #shame”
I think the voter has moved on. This Government has set the bar so low that people now expect this type of indecency. I think they don’t care because, like me, they are all too bloody tired and come election time they will vote for “stability” and it will be the economy; and as usual Labor will get bashed about the ears by most of the media.
Albo really needs to pull a very big rabbit out of the hat on Thursday to kick start things for Labor.
It is thoroughly depressing.
Cameron says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 5:11 pm
Did anyone see Craig Kelly explaining just how much debt Australia is in with his pallet worth of printed $100 notes?
He has done a much better job than Labor at explaining this, perhaps the ALP could even use this piece in advertising in the election campaign seeing they aren’t capable of mounting an explanation themselves.
It could be over to Craig Kelly for the “Cheat Sheet”
And as a federal budget has always been about balancing an economy it was about as useful as the debt truck.
Thanks for the response Guytaur, but I seriously think the media is not as sophisticated as the media in the US; and sadly I think voters here are more apathetic than in the US.
If Labor tries to outspend the Government, they will get bashed about the ears.
I know I am sounding like mundo, but I’m not in a positive space for politics at the moment.
Lynchpin,
When you have a government shameless enough to nick Sally McManus’ best ideas to deal with the pandemic and Labor’s best ideas now, frankly, I’d be satisfied with someone, anyone, producing a photo of Scott Morrison en flagrante with a goat and a stick of butter in order to bring the bastard lower than even he lets his MPs get away with! 😆
Lynchpin,
People thought Menzies and Howard would be carried out in a box from the PM’s office. They weren’t.
Has Australia ever had joint military drills with China?
Lizzie,
While I admire your pukka, you need to be thinking further down the line.
You need to get yourself in to the system at a base level so you can upgrade when required.
Everyone assumes their on going good health. But, unfortunately the afflictions of age can come on very quickly and your assumptions about your ability to manage your life can dissipate suddenly and catastrophically.
Look to the future needs so you can ensure there is a life that you can live with.
Cheers
Lynchpin
In other words don’t be depressed.
I now know money is being spent on campaigns around the budget. I got a fundraising letter for a small donation from The Victorian Trades Hall Council for an advertisement.
I don’t know how I got on their mailing list but was happy to chip in.
Indonesia made it quite clear to China that a Chinese conquest of the Natuna Islands would involve armed conflict with China.
Did China conquer the Natuna Islands like it just conquered the Philippine’s Whitsun Reef?
Nope.
China has done a bit of a rework of the old dash lines conquest routine since.
Indonesia won.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/as-china-freezes-out-australia-the-superpower-befriends-indonesia-20210510-p57qjf.html
BW
Actually Australia is not separate from this.
https://www.nbr.org/publication/the-australia-india-indonesia-trilateral-fostering-maritime-cooperation-between-middle-powers/
GG
It’s OK I am in the lowest level of care already.
I remind myself of a vintage car where bits occasionally fall off, the steering is unreliable and she can’t manage all the hills but the brakes are in good nick and the driver still has her marbles.
boerwar @ #308 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 4:43 pm
World markets aren’t co-operative with Xi though. Not that his trade punishments aren’t hurting some Aussie exporters, but that its not hurting our overall economy as much as he’d like.
Not that Xi would give a damn, but its not helping China much either.
Iron Ore is clearly the big one he’d like to stop. But give it time.
C@t, you along with many others get a thumbs up from me (can’t do those emoji things). Even those who I don’t agree with most of the time get the thumbs up every now and then when they say something intelligent about the subject being discussed.
Anyhoo, be good and and if you can’t be careful.
Indonesia don’t have a crazy idiot ‘leading’ them like The Philippines does.
Lizzie,
That’s good to know.
Cheers
C@t @2:20
Yeah, bitcoin. Its basically a collectible, driven by hype. Totally unpredictable.
BK @2:23
“Quite safe hybrids like anz.pd and anz.pf”
Que?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/05/11/essential-research-leadership-ratings-and-preselection-latest/comment-page-7/#comment-3604533
It needs to get emotion and KISS logic right, beyond you’ve had 3 terms, for a call to change …
Do you feel better off now compared with say pre-2013?
Rossmcg @2:36
Interesting.. but still complex and risky.