Essential Research leadership ratings and preselection latest

A second pollster suggests Scott Morrison’s recent slump to have been short-lived, as Eric Abetz gets dumped from his customary position at the top of the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket.

First up, note two posts below this one dealing with ongoing electoral events: the resolution to the Tasmanian election count and the New South Wales state by-election for Upper Hunter on Saturday week.

The Guardian today reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes the monthly leadership ratings. As was the case with Newspoll, this finds Scott Morrison pulling out of the slump that followed the Brittany Higgins and Christian Porter episodes, with his approval up four to 58% and disapproval to five to 32%, without quite restoring him to the respective 62% and 29% he recorded in the March poll. The recovery has been particularly pronounced with women, among whom he is up nine points on approval to 55% and down eight on disapproval to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-28 to 50-24; Anthony Albanese’s ratings are said to be “constant compared to his standing last month”, when he had 39% approval and 34% disapproval.

The poll also finds 48% support and 27% opposition for the India travel ban, with 41% supporting jail time and fines and 33% opposed. However, 56% said they would support allowing citizens to return “provided they complete the necessary quarantine procedures when they arrive”, with 22% opposed. There was also a suite of questions on budget priorities that are probably better saved for the full poll release, which should be along later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. Albanese turns out to be steady on 39% approval and up one on disapproval to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1092.

Some notable preselection action to report:

• The Tasmanian Liberal Senate preselection has seen Eric Abetz, long the dominant figure in the state branch, dumped to the loseable number three position behind fellow incumbents Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew. A source quoted by Sue Bailey of The Mercury said Abetz won the first round of the ballot for top position with 29 votes to Duniam’s 26 and Askew’s 12, before Duniam prevailed on the second round with 36 votes to Abetz’s 31. Askew then defeated Abetz in the ballot for second position by 37 votes to 30.

• Labor’s preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe is in limbo after the Victorian Supreme Court ruled a challenge by ten unions against the federal party organisation’s takeover of the process should proceed to a trial on May 26. This complicates former state secretary Sam Rae’s bid for the seat, which was set to be signed off on by the national executive under the terms of a deal reached between elements of the Left and Right, with Rae being a member of the latter. The Age reports Rae “will be challenged by Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and former Melton council candidate Deepti Alurkar” – I’m not sure where this leaves state government minister Natalie Hutchins, earlier identified as Rae’s chief rival. Hutchins is an ally of Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who have been frozen out of the aforesaid factional deal.

• Barnaby Joyce has easily seen off a challenge for the Nationals preselection in New England from Tenterfield army officer Alex Rubin, whom he defeated in the local members’ ballot by 112 votes to 12.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,861 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and preselection latest”

Comments Page 8 of 58
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  2. The usual sign by the electorate of how well they are doing is how much their house has risen in value of late.

    Since October last year I would say pretty well.

  3. Elon Musk outs himself as being Asperger’s

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/watch-elon-musk-reveals-he-has-aspergers-syndrome-on-snl-heres-why-thats-raising-some-eyebrows-11620667511

    Now, that’s interesting. For instance it raises the question of intention. Was some of his dodgy claims and over-hyped marketing actually the result of living in a “compartmentalised” world. Or were they simply wilful deceit?

    Lots of people hang off Elon’s every word.. including his delusional claims about Mars. Pretty sad, really.

  7. BW

    I am glad of term limits with Duarte. 2022.
    The economic contraction may change that 2020 popularity figure.

  8. Cameron,

    Craig Kelly’s box reminded me of Adam Bandts rice video.

    It’s a great visual.
    I can see it now: Shoeboxes of sportsRorts, etc..
    V the matchbox that all seats received.

  9. “ Veteran Tasmanian Liberal senator Eric Abetz has suggested he is a victim of “ageism and sexism” after being demoted to third place on his party’s Senate ticket.
    …
    “Winston Churchill became wartime prime minister at 71 … [Joe Biden] is 78, and before that Donald Trump, Ronald Reagan all started their presidency in their 70s,” Senator Abetz said.

    “When you’re balancing budgets, when you’re dealing with China, when you’re dealing with wokeism, you need men and women of courage, capacity, intellect, advocacy skills — all those things.”

    ____

    geez, poor ole Erica got a few facts (who needs them) wrong there.

    Churchill was 66 when he first became PM.

    Ronald Reagan was 69 when he was sworn in as No.40.

    Courage on China hey. When he was last a Minister he was part of a cabinet hell bent on selling everything they could to the ChiComs: who would scream ‘racism’ as soon as any political opponent questioned the wisdom of selling strategic assets or engaging with Chinese companies on telecommunications infrastructure. He has the courage of the desiccated turd that he resembles. Not to mention the advocacy skills of a Vogon reading poetry.

    Edited to ad: Erica’s main problem is not that he’s now 63. Or white. Or male. Or – in my opinion – a Nazi. No. Its that he’s been in elected politics since 1994, and his career peaked in 2013 and was effectively over in September 2015. He’s 8 years past being relevant and it simply doesn’t matter whether he’s 63, 83 or 43. Or a man. Or white. or a Nazi. Or not. He’s yesterday.

  12. The latest iteration of lockdowns has been cruel to the Philippine’s economy.

    The first large tranche of vaccines has only recently arrived.

    There are moves to set up vaccine manufacturing but these may take some time to eventuate.

    They first tranche may be enough to enable a few of the larger metro economies to open up fully but it will be years before the PI population is fully vaccinated.

    Duterte is reaching the end of his term so there is a bit of an interregnum operating which will not be fixed until the new President is installed.

  19. “Which one of youse poor things drew the short straw and has to watch Smiley Highpants tonight?”

    Mundo, I’d rather poke my eyes out with knitting needles than watch that preppy.

  20. Who cares?

    ___

    Care factor is about zero fucks, except for the extra incentive to try to minimise the Libs senate vote too only 2 quotas at the next election. … but I did enjoy writing that post.

  23. GG:

    The usual sign by the electorate of how well they are doing is how much their house has risen in value of late.

    Since October last year I would say pretty well.

    Quite.

    And in the absence of such a rise, or its abatement, what happens?

  29. Does anyone know if South Australia is making moves towards building a fit-for-purpose quarantine facility, after this latest failure?

  30. Party Leaders’ Approval Ratings:

    Boris Johnson (CON): 48% (+2)
    Keir Starmer (LAB): 17% (-9)

    via @YouGov, 10 May

    (Changes with 12 Apr)

  37. EG,

    Have been pondering that as well.

    Morison is such an overbearing piece of nonsense that his Schtick may not resonate when people come to vote. Kennett was apparently an unstoppable force of nature right up to the moment he wasn’t.

    Morrison gets plenty of publicity and is superficially popular.

    People tend to vote for their self interest.

    Labor has been steady and predictable for some time. They almost won the last election but for some hubris on super.

    My personal reading is that Labor haven’t gone backwards and given they will pick ups seat in Victoria and there are opportunities through Libs retiring that it will be a close run thing.

    How about you?

    Cheers

  40. GG

    Adam Bandt agrees with you. Thus the whole balance of power campaign of the Greens.

    I think Labor will get a majority though. That’s not changed. I thought that before the criminal penalties for Australian citizens returning from India.

  41. House prices go up.
    Sure.
    What use is that unless you are moving to a place where they have gone down?
    And that’s often a place you most likely don’t want to live.
    Real estate agents get fatter commissions, state governments get stamp duty windfalls.
    For many of us the benefit is illusory .
    My son still can’t afford to buy. He will inherit more eventually but I think he’d like his own place sooner rather than later.
    More important to me has been the recovery in the share market which has restored some of the value lost by my super last March

  42. ‘Mavis says:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 7:12 pm

    Posting approval ratings of leaders three years from an election is about as useful as a screen door on a sub.’

    It is not very useful as a predictor of what will happen at the election. But, were I Starmer, I would be focusing on what is driving the numbers.

    Were I Boris I would be telling the Scots that they can GAGF and that they MUST stay inside the UK.

  43. boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 5:03 pm
    If demography is destiny then…

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/11/analysis-chinas-ageing-population-predicament-global-implications-east-asia

    ………..

    What is the point of this article you have linked?

    Usual idiotic Guardian claptrap, as shallow as as a puddle of mud but with less clarity, it does nothing to explain why “China’s aging population threatens global Covid recovery”.

    Short of taking 10s of millions of 6 year olds out of school and sending them to work in factories, or back to the rice fields, there is nothing practical to be done in the immediate term to change this.

    The crunch for China with respect to population will come in 60 or 80 years, when about everyone who has even heard of Corona Virus will be dead.

  45. “How do you rate the chance of de Belin & Sinclair being tried again on the remaining 5 counts? do you rate the chance of de Belin & Sinclair being tried again on the remaining 5 counts?”

    _____

    The ODPP is unlikely to ever ‘no bill’ this matter, IMO.

  46. Arthur
    We are on the cusp of a historic turning point in China’s demography.
    The consequences will not suddenly appear in ’60 to 80 years’.
    That is already having significant consequences.

    Taiwan has possibly the lowest TFR in the world.
    That, too, will have major consequences.

    Japan has had a tiny TFR for decades.
    That is already having major consequences.

  47. Posting approval ratings of leaders three years from an election is about as useful as a screen door on a sub.

    It’s a lazy way of annoying people though, hence good enough for Bucephalus.

  48. Ross,

    Not disagreeing.

    But, people feel more comfortable if the value of their house has risen and less inclined to change their voting preference.

  49. Ross,

    RE your son.

    What is he doing to put a deposit together?

    How about the Bank of Mum and Dad helping out.

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