First up, note two posts below this one dealing with ongoing electoral events: the resolution to the Tasmanian election count and the New South Wales state by-election for Upper Hunter on Saturday week.
The Guardian today reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes the monthly leadership ratings. As was the case with Newspoll, this finds Scott Morrison pulling out of the slump that followed the Brittany Higgins and Christian Porter episodes, with his approval up four to 58% and disapproval to five to 32%, without quite restoring him to the respective 62% and 29% he recorded in the March poll. The recovery has been particularly pronounced with women, among whom he is up nine points on approval to 55% and down eight on disapproval to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-28 to 50-24; Anthony Albanese’s ratings are said to be “constant compared to his standing last month”, when he had 39% approval and 34% disapproval.
The poll also finds 48% support and 27% opposition for the India travel ban, with 41% supporting jail time and fines and 33% opposed. However, 56% said they would support allowing citizens to return “provided they complete the necessary quarantine procedures when they arrive”, with 22% opposed. There was also a suite of questions on budget priorities that are probably better saved for the full poll release, which should be along later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. Albanese turns out to be steady on 39% approval and up one on disapproval to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1092.
Some notable preselection action to report:
• The Tasmanian Liberal Senate preselection has seen Eric Abetz, long the dominant figure in the state branch, dumped to the loseable number three position behind fellow incumbents Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew. A source quoted by Sue Bailey of The Mercury said Abetz won the first round of the ballot for top position with 29 votes to Duniam’s 26 and Askew’s 12, before Duniam prevailed on the second round with 36 votes to Abetz’s 31. Askew then defeated Abetz in the ballot for second position by 37 votes to 30.
• Labor’s preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe is in limbo after the Victorian Supreme Court ruled a challenge by ten unions against the federal party organisation’s takeover of the process should proceed to a trial on May 26. This complicates former state secretary Sam Rae’s bid for the seat, which was set to be signed off on by the national executive under the terms of a deal reached between elements of the Left and Right, with Rae being a member of the latter. The Age reports Rae “will be challenged by Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and former Melton council candidate Deepti Alurkar” – I’m not sure where this leaves state government minister Natalie Hutchins, earlier identified as Rae’s chief rival. Hutchins is an ally of Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who have been frozen out of the aforesaid factional deal.
• Barnaby Joyce has easily seen off a challenge for the Nationals preselection in New England from Tenterfield army officer Alex Rubin, whom he defeated in the local members’ ballot by 112 votes to 12.
It’s a lazy way of annoying people though, hence good enough for Bucephalus.
Hey, at least he’s not making shit up this time.
GG
I guess if you vote liberal and you’ve believed for years the lie that Labor will steal your house/super/savings/wife/first born, bring in death taxes and they are better economic managers you obsess about the value of houses.
I was only really concerned when the mother of my sons moved on and I had to re-mortgage for a divorce settlement.
Rather then than now.
He is building his deposit and I do help but he wisely is avoiding getting into an overheated market in Perth and paying over the odds.
GG
This may be affecting people more than is appreciated by house owners.
I don’t blame Air B N B for this. That blame is an issue for real reasons. As is the misguided attempt by the LNP in repeating the mistake of subsidising first home buyers. Will just get the same results. Locking more people into an increasingly unaffordable rental market.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-10/motel-nomads-fighting-to-stay-off-the-streets/100112752
Ken Wyatt has already fallen asleep, despite Frydenberg bellowing from the start
Talk about qualifying a statement —
‘A recent sighting of the “Mitta panther”, which perhaps looked similar to this animal….’
guytaur says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 2:09 pm
N
You evade the basic point. You are as disingenuous as the next LINO.
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 5:10 pm
I think Albanese is finally finding his sass:
Anthony Albanese
@AlboMP
·
56m
The Liberals are spending more time gagging Labor and defending Andrew Laming remaining Chair of a Parliamentary Committee than Andrew Laming spent on his online “empathy” course #shame
……….
How about;
@AlboMP
“Renowned non-consensual fondler of women, PM Morrison bribes serial sex pest and Liberal backbencher with $22,000 a year committee position”.
Too sassy?
I made an offer on a house today, peeps. We’ll see how it goes.
Fuck me, $980billion deficit- why not round it up to ONE TRILLION..- in 2025
sprocket_ says Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 7:36 pm
Was that deficit or debt?
Sorry but this ‘Essential’ poll makes no sense. Can someone explain why Morrison’s support among women would be rising? Did I miss something? Is it because people have forgotten about what just happened weeks ago? Surely it can’t be because people actually think he’s doing a good job of representing women. He’s not my Prime Minister!
N
I don’t miss anything.
You miss the basic point. We live in a democracy not a dictatorship. Be glad of it. This level is where General McMasters is right about the West. We can correct course short of a revolution. Authoritarian states like China cannot.
What Frydenberg wont say is
If it wasn’t for the states/territories except NSW for closing the borders, and saved Morrison and his cronies backsides.
Australia would still be in a position like we are seeing countries in Europe and in the Americas
Promo,will be heading off to Yarralumla in 3,2,1…
Boerwar:
[‘It is not very useful as a predictor of what will happen at the election. But, were I Starmer, I would be focusing on what is driving the numbers.’]
Starmer started off quite well but for whatever reason,
he’s not cutting the mustard. If I were him I’d hand back the KCB – not a good look for Labour man.
________________________________
Andrew_Earlwood:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 7:21 pm
[‘The ODPP is unlikely to ever ‘no bill’ this matter, IMO.’]
I beg to differ. I think the remaining 5 counts will be nollied. Save for one acquittal, two juries (the second deliberating for over 5 days) have been hung. Just how many attempts should the Crown get to secure convictions? I make no comment on their guilt or
otherwise.
Ross,
How much rent does he pay?
How quickly are house values rising?
Could he buy a block that doesn’t settle for some time.
Is he aware of Government subsidies that will assist him?
I’d humbly suggest your son needs to find a good broker who will take him through the process so he has a clear understanding of what he needs to do to and how to achieve his dream of home ownership.
bc
Net debt is ‘peaking at $980 billion’ – deficit is $106b in 2021/22, in the current year it is $161b
Doris: “Sorry but this ‘Essential’ poll makes no sense.”
I have no trust in Essential. The type of things they poll cannot be verified. They haven’t published party polling since last year, which is the only thing that can be tested (election voting).
GG
Thanks for the advice. He knows where he’s at I think.
@NickMcKim tweets
Good evening everyone. While the Treasurer makes his budget speech, I thought it would be useful to translate what he actually means. Join me below
“Supporting 10,000 single parents to purchase a home with a 2 per cent deposit.”
Translation: Remember the subprime mortgage crisis? Neither do we.
“Mr. Speaker, in this Budget, our housing measures go even further.”
Translation: We are going to keep inflating the housing bubble forever. Line go up!
I am thinking July 24
He will tell Governor General that the current state of parliament doesn’t ensure his ability to pursue his program
Now Morrison seems to have his eyes shut , is he having a nightmare that Frydenberg may become the leader of the liberal party
@AdamBandt tweets
This budget is for billionaires and big corporations.
Sure, it’s a budget that ‘invests in people’ — those people are Clive Palmer, Gerry Harvey, and Gina Rinehart. #Budget2021
Frydo in short – we are opening the borders up
Promo in short – we are closing the borders down
Something for everyone there, and a deluge of announcements for the chooks to scrabble over
Player Onesays:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 6:36 pm
Are you under contract to the Global Times, boerwar?
………..
That would somewhat contradict your assertion that he is warmongering a unilateral declaration of war on Beijing.
Is Josh shouting yet?
My old man, in the company of my cousin was driving back to Melbourne along the Khancoban to Corryong road when he says he saw a black panther, very early in the morning, (about 2.00 am) his claim was supported by said cousin.
Clem. Well that’s it then I guess. Panther must exist in Australia.
@joshuabadge tweets
Sorry it’s hard to take the LNP seriously on digital projects after, y’know, the NBN #Budget2021
Lizzie says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 7:54 pm
Is Josh shouting yet?
————
He was bellowing from the first word
South, this was back in the early 80’s and I used to give him a lot of shit about it, but he and my cousin Paul both swear that is what they saw.
Some whopping numbers in giveaways to business…
$18b over forward estimates on tax right offs
Scott Morrison is The Trillion dollar debt man!
Now when you sit your children down for the birds and bees discussion there will be the “I’ve burdened you with insurmountable debt discussion “ .
“ I beg to differ. I think the remaining 5 counts will be nollied. Save for one acquittal, two juries (the second deliberating for over 5 days) have been hung. Just how many attempts should the Crown get to secure convictions? I make no comment on their guilt or
otherwise.”
They ran that Jeff Jarrett trial when it was obvious there was no case.
The ODPP will keep fronting up and running this until there is either a verdict OR some Judge issues a permanent stay.
I speak from personal experience and a pretty deep knowledge of the relevant decision makers in the ODPP.
Bear in mind the current Director is about to retire (if he hasn’t already left the building) and the two Deputy Directors are candidates to replace him. Nobody in that joint is about to make ‘courageous’ decisions in the age of #metoo. Especially when they might actually think – on a proper and principled basis – that it’s a matter for a jury to ultimately decide and the case remains viable (remember, the relevant evidence from the complainant has been pre-recorded: the prosecution can keep hitting the play button before different juries until someone finally makes a decision – whether that be a jury verdict or some Judge finally binning the case by way of a stay).
Clem if I were a Pollie, I’d be tempted to run on a platform of reintroducing the panther the lush bushland of wherever. 😛
I feel like this is the sort of issue that’s got some votes in it
I remember when Labors 240 or so billion dollar debt was a DEBT AND DEFICIT DISASTER. lol.
The Government benches appear depressed – they aren’t used to cheering this showering of money?
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2021/05/11/frydenberg-starts-budget-speech-with-reminder-that-all-figures-are-correct-to-closest-60-billion/?fbclid=IwAR2pyyp4zxZGRIhgRIRI8mjkntsWQ3gr734Xatp0wmTlA842yNKW0RE1deE
I couldn’t bring myself to view or listen to Frydenberg. I do hope Chalmers will remind the electorate of the almost unprecedented debt & deficit – this from a government that formerly preached fiscal discipline but now spends like the proverbial matelot.
@RDNS_TAI tweets
The mood of the Coalition watching this budget speech seem muted if not somber…maybe they hate all of the money being spent on people who need it? #auspol #Budget21
Greensborough Growler @ #386 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 6:40 pm
I am encouraged by both the rock solid long-term primary trend for Labor, and that it’s at the expense of all other parties (Coalition, Greens, One Nation) because it means Labor are getting votes from across spectrum. This is not good news for Scrotty and is going to be very hard for him to reverse, so he can’t wait much longer.
We will be off to the polls soon, regardless of the effect of the budget on polls.
https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2022/
$400m for environment, $18,000m for business right offs
Greensborough Growler
Now when you sit your children down for the birds and bees discussion there will be the “I’ve burdened you with insurmountable debt discussion “
I have US friend ex Fed Reserve economist .. I asked him about the “debt being paid back” his reply.. ” good questions.. no one knows”.. “By definition a stimulus package is not paid for completely. If it were, there would be no net stimulus.” in short it gets written off, absorbed by growth.
Don’t worry about it.. so long as its productive & not given to the military to piss against the wall.. that is WASTE
I’ll settle for marsupial lions.
I can’t see how you could get a breeding population of introduced panthers going.
(Also many of the ‘origin’ stories get their big cats confused — )
Morrison is unlikely to call a House-only election, as that would mean a separate half-Senate election (great for minor parties, more oxygen for them, bad for the government, a giant byelection).
I don`t know if there are triggers for a double dissolution. Even if there are, I doubt that Morrison would use them, it would make retaining the 6th Coalition seats in Victoria, NSW, Qld and WA much harder and similarly with gaining a 6th seat in SA.
That should be:
We will be off to the voting booth soon, regardless of the effect of the budget on opinion polls.
AE
Wasn’t the jury clear they had one charge to convict on. It was the judge that wouldn’t accept that. At least that’s my memory.
Isn’t that enough for the Department to pursue?
‘South says:
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 7:56 pm
Clem. Well that’s it then I guess. Panther must exist in Australia.’
——————————————–
Population concentrations are well-known to occur along the back road home from the local rubbidy shortly after closing time.
…and I’m fairly certain I saw a thylacine.
Or write offs if you are accountably inclined.