Four entirely unrelated items of electoral news after a week without new poll results:
• The Australian Electoral Commission has approved the registration of a party called the New Liberals. In doing so it rejected a 55-page Liberal Party submission that included CT Group polling to support its argument that voters would confuse the new party with the old. The judgement cited the similarly unsuccessful bid to deny Liberals for Forests in 2001, in which it was determined that a ban on words as generic as “liberal” and “labour” demanded “clear language” from the Electoral Act – although it conceded the name New Liberals landed “much closer to the line”. The Howard government’s dissatisfaction with the 2001 ruling resulted in a new clause targeting names implying a “connection or relationship” with an existing party, but the AEC has ruled this doesn’t catch the New Liberals. The judgement also expressed reservations about the CT Group survey, in terms implying a dubious attitude to much of the modern practice of opinion polling. The Liberals can now apply for an internal review, followed by an appeal to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal.
• The count for the Upper Hunter by-election has been finalised, confirming a 5.8% winning margin for Nationals candidate David Layzell and a two-party swing to the Nationals of 3.3%. Antony Green crunches the ballot paper data (a welcome feature of NSW election counts) to determine how each candidate’s preferences divided between Nationals and Labor, which in aggregate was very similar to the 2019 election.
• Resolution also for the Tasmanian state election, which had a post-script after elected Adam Brooks was charged with firearms offences the day after his election was declared, prompting him to decline his seat. This was resolved through Tasmania’s recount procedure for lower house vacancies using the ballots that elected the outgoing member, which naturally went overwhelmingly to other Liberals. The result was a win for Felix Ellis, a member of the previous parliament who initially failed to win re-election, finishing the distribution with 5881 votes (53.4%) to Stacey Sheehan’s 5132 (46.6%). The party numbers remain Liberal 13, Labor nine and Greens two, with one independent.
• I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday on the recently launched Australian Polling Council’s new code of conduct. Both council and code draw inspiration from the British Polling Council, though to my own disappointment it does not follow the British example in requiring members to publish full breakdowns and weighting bases for each poll. However, pollsters will be required to publish a range of other detail that is often absent from media outlets’ reporting of polls they commission, including margin of error calculations that account for demographic imbalances in the sample. The nine pollsters who are members of the council include most of the familiar names, but not Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan.
“Boom.”
United Airlines aims to revive Concorde spirit with supersonic planes
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/03/united-airlines-boom-supersonic-overture-airliner-concorde
From the previous thread Therese Rein could have kept her business by giving up her government contract.
Queensland resists Morrison government environment laws overhaul without better protections
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/04/queensland-resists-morrison-government-environment-laws-overhaul-without-better-protections
David Attenborough Netflix documentary: Australian scientists break down in tears over climate crisis
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/04/david-attenborough-netflix-documentary-australian-scientists-break-down-in-tears-over-climate-crisis
I can’t understand the critique of the Morrison’s private support arrangements on the blog last night… they are perfectly normal..
The Guardian view on Israel’s new coalition: not yet a new era
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/03/the-guardian-view-on-israels-new-coalition-not-yet-a-new-era
That looks photoshops because who uses such a small desk.
‘Nothing can be taken at face value’: should we ever trust the recorded image?
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2021/jun/03/all-light-everywhere-documentary-theo-anthony
The AEC has lost lots of credibility by allowing deliberate misleading by the National Party and liberal Partys claim to be seperate entities, despite having similar policies and national party members on the liberal party websites
Mexicanbeemer
I believe it is genuine, taken at some formal occasion.( Governor General’s place ?. ) The desk will be some historic item , travelling and ship’s furniture were often ‘shrunk’ .
Poroti
It probably is but the desk looks like an oversized stable table.
Scott
The Liberal & Country parties are just factions of the same party.
Buce will be pleased to know that Julia Gillard and Tim Mathieson are still together.
Mexican
Definitely genuine, there were several versions of the photo from different angles, and it was released by the PM’s department.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
In quite a harsh assessment, John Hewson explains why he says that Scott Morrison’s road to re-election is getting more difficult.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7281554/hewsons-view-scott-morrisons-road-to-re-election-is-getting-more-difficult/?cs=14264&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews
Rob Harris has the lowdown on a secret marketing strategy to convince Australians to support a controversial overhaul of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) saying the federal government must be “seen” to have listened to concerns of disability groups, who will be targeted with an extensive campaign. Spin Central!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/secret-ndis-report-warns-of-backlash-unless-government-is-seen-to-have-listened-20210603-p57xsl.html
According to Simon Benson, Scott Morrison will commit $200 million to the construction of a 500-bed Victorian quarantine facility at Avalon under a plan close to finalisation ahead of today’s national cabinet meeting.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/scott-morrisons-deal-for-500bed-quarantine-in-victoria/news-story/7f6617f65636fab3fcf0f4045e3bae75
Morrison’s offer of a $500-a-week disaster payment leaves him exposed to attack for being too slow to see that Victorians needed urgent help and only coming up with a begrudging form of assistance, suggests David Crowe.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-takes-political-gamble-with-targeted-temporary-federal-help-20210603-p57xxj.html
The PM’s quibbling on financial support for Victoria amid its Covid lockdown looked more self-defeating than reasonable, writes Katherine Murphy who says that once again, Scott Morrison appears a day late and a dollar short.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/03/once-again-scott-morrison-appears-a-day-late-and-a-dollar-short
The federal government will back a national scheme to pay workers $500 if they’re affected by a shutdown – but only if it agrees the shuttering is warranted, explains Phil Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/later-lockdown-relief-with-a-catch-20210602-p57xjs
The Australian Medical Association is pushing for COVID-19 vaccines to be fast-tracked into general practices amid a growing Pfizer shortage fuelled by a jump in Victorians getting their vaccination.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/calls-to-fast-track-pfizer-for-victoria-amid-phenomenal-demand-for-vaccine-20210603-p57xom.html
Roy Ward writes that one expert believes the reclassification of two cases of “stranger-to-stranger transmission” as false positives could dramatically alter how authorities view the current Victorian lockdown.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/false-stranger-to-stranger-cases-takes-pressure-off-contact-tracers-expert-says-20210603-p57xy9.html
In a perversely entertaining article Greg Sheridan says the upcoming Joe Biden meet and greet is the biggest show for Scott Morrison.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/joe-biden-meet-and-greet-is-the-biggest-show-for-scott-morrison/news-story/275f1af2618317ffb6987818b497ed0e
Michelle Grattan looks at Morrison’s week and Speaker Smith’s change of posture.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-bringing-scott-morrison-to-heel-161992
When does the crisis over the spread of deadly and highly infectious disease, quarantine and vaccinations get recognised as a scandal, wonders Lee Duffield.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/government-spins-and-fiddles-with-ideology-as-the-pandemic-crisis-worsens,15149
Zoe Samios tells us that ABC management has knocked back an upcoming Four Corners episode by prominent journalist Louise Milligan about the relationship between Prime Minister Scott Morrison and a supporter of the QAnon conspiracy theory, a decision that could be seen as an attempt to dampen tensions between the national broadcaster and the federal government. Let’s hope this sick arrangement of the Morrisons does get to be exposed sometime soon.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abc-bosses-pull-four-corners-episode-linking-pm-to-qanon-figure-20210603-p57xuk.html
John Kelly writes an open letter to Labor MPs. It demands that Plibersek be installed as a leader who can actually win the election against Morrison.
https://theaimn.com/an-open-letter-to-members-of-the-parliamentary-labor-party/
Michaela Whitbourn report on Ben Roberts-Smith’s latest legal setback before his court case at large looms.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/ben-roberts-smith-launches-proceedings-against-ex-wife-on-eve-of-trial-20210603-p57xsd.html
Waleed Aly looks at the loose talk that has pervaded the latest Victorian lockdown.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/enough-loose-lockdown-talk-20210603-p57xmr.html
If Israeli researchers are correct, testing for COVID-19 could be radically changed. Rather than rolling down their windows to confront a nurse with a swab, drivers at testing stations could come face-to-face with a plastic electronic nose, writes Jill Margo.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/electronic-nose-inches-closer-to-sniffing-out-covid-19-20210601-p57x48
Bob McMullan believes that it is not all doom and gloom for Labor voters.
https://johnmenadue.com/it-is-not-all-doom-and-gloom-for-labor-votors/
According to Mike Foley, a plan to hand environmental approval powers of the Commonwealth over to state governments has hit a roadblock, with Queensland demanding tougher rules. Back to you, Sussan!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/queensland-pushes-back-against-federal-move-to-hand-over-environmental-powers-20210603-p57xs5.html
We’re stuck with quarantine hotels, but can we fix the breaches asks David Crowe.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-re-stuck-with-quarantine-hotels-but-can-we-fix-the-breaches-20210603-p57xv0.html
The federal government was urged two months ago to fund special paid leave to help aged care staff get their vaccinations, but did not do so, reports Christopher Knaus.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/04/federal-government-urged-months-ago-to-fund-paid-leave-for-aged-care-staff-vaccination
Labor MLC Anthony D’Adam writes that the only way out of NSW Labor’s disastrous leadership spiral is a ballot of the rank and file.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-only-way-out-of-nsw-labor-s-disastrous-leadership-spiral-is-a-ballot-20210603-p57xwa.html
Paul Karp reports that the Morrison government has dumped the controversial “kill switch” from its superannuation reforms that would have allowed it to veto certain types of investment decisions by super funds.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/03/superannuation-bill-passes-lower-house-after-coalition-dumps-controversial-kill-switch
Mike Steketee examines the work of spiv developers on NSW high rise buildings as further examples come to light. He looks at the light touch of regulations that enable such behaviour.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/light-touch-regulation-keeps-on-failing-homebuyers-in-faulty-towers-20210524-p57uoi.html
The Coalition is cracking down on charitable organisations. However, the Australian charity promoting arms deals on behalf of weapons makers that profit from humanitarian catastrophes is unlikely to be in the government’s sights. With the weapons expo LandForces wrapping up in Brisbane this week, Michelle Fahy delves into the charity behind LandForces.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/landforces-brothers-in-arms-how-a-weapons-peddler-qualified-for-charitable-status/
Many of us have heard about the prosecution of Bernard Collaery on the say-so of Christian Porter. But very few know much more than that it is an almost secret trial against the former ACT Attorney-General. Unfortunately, John le Carré is no longer with us to tell this intriguing tale, writes Ian Cunliffe.
https://johnmenadue.com/who-just-gives-away-billions-is-this-what-the-collaery-case-is-all-about/
Tom McIlroy tells us that Australian consumer law will be overhauled to see trusted overseas product safety standards used alongside domestic regulations, speeding up approvals and reducing costs.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/overseas-product-safety-rules-to-be-used-in-australia-20210603-p57xw2
Britain’s high commissioner to Australia says the world’s leading export nations can avoid potential carbon tariffs by lifting their level of climate ambition when they head to the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow in November.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/britain-s-top-diplomat-to-australia-urges-more-climate-ambition-as-morrison-vows-to-do-it-our-way-20210603-p57xsj.html
Holden Shepperd goes to his own experience to warn against gay conversion therapy and the severe damage it can inflict.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-tried-to-convert-myself-from-gay-to-straight-it-doesn-t-work-20210603-p57xqo.html
The US Department of Justice is elevating investigations of ransomware attacks to a similar priority as terrorism in the wake of the Colonial Pipeline hack and mounting damage caused by cyber criminals.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/ransomware-to-be-treated-more-like-terrorism-us-official-says-20210604-p57xz9.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Andrew Dyson
Cathy Wilcox
Matt Golding
Simon Letch
Jim Pavlidis
Mark David
Peter Broelman
Mark Knight
Johannes Leak
From the US
Thanks BK.
Such a perfect description for this government.
The latest agitations by Trump and his acolytes should be leaving anyone who values democracy deeply unsettled. I think it’s only a matter of time until we see a repeat of Jan 6.
ABC denies it ‘pulled’ Four Corners program on Scott Morrison and a supporter of QAnon
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jun/03/abc-denies-it-pulled-four-corners-program-on-scott-morrison-and-a-supporter-of-qanon
So, former Liberal pollsters, now polling for 9Fax, Resolve Strategic, won’t join the new Australian Polling Council. Therefore I will take their results with a bigger grain of salt than the others.
You know, I’m actually willing to give Morrison the benefit of the doubt re his Qanon pal. I think most of us have some mates who believe crazy shit (chemtrails were popular among a couple of my childhood friends some years back), and wouldn’t want to be judged by that.
But Morrison does happen to be the Prime Minister of the country, and as such it seems in the public interest to at least cover the situation. Can you imagine the furore if Rudd or Gillard had a close friend who was, say, a 9/11 truther?
Asha Leu @ #17 Friday, June 4th, 2021 – 7:24 am
Asha Leu,
I have been following the January 6 Insurrection and its fallout with fear and trepidation myself. I linked to a podcast yesterday, I don’t know if you saw it, that was a conversation with a reporter who is following all the court cases related to the Jan 6 Insurrectionists and it was chilling to listen to:
https://podcast.thebulwark.com/scott-macfarlane-inside-the-jan-6-cases
It’s also why I have a very real fear about putting Peter Dutton into Defence here in Australia. He wouldn’t think twice about using the military if he thought he needed to.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/legal-issues/capitol-riot-defendants-pay-damages-restitution/2021/06/03/74691812-c3ec-11eb-93f5-ee9558eecf4b_story.html?itid=lk_fullstory
Of course they should pay.
From BK’s round up, Bob McMullen gives a shout out to BillBo…
‘A recent article in The Economist about Australia’s Covid travel restrictions asserted that PM Morrison “is well ahead in the polls”. This appears to reflect the prevailing orthodoxy, even amongst Labor voters. Some media reports suggest that this may also be the view of many Labor MPs and Senators. This is a puzzle to me. The facts suggest otherwise.
The most reliable consolidated reporting of Australian published polling is by the Poll Bludger and can be found on his website. This data shows the Labor party has been either level or ahead in the polls all year, and the long-term trend in the primary vote has been up since last September. The two-party-preferred trendline has put Labor ahead all year. In fact, the current headline of the website’s analysis has the ALP on 51.7%, a swing of 3.2% since the last election.
https://johnmenadue.com/it-is-not-all-doom-and-gloom-for-labor-votors/
https://billshorten.com.au/campaigns/revealed-secret-plan-to-push-through-controversial-independent-assessments-regardless-of-disability-feedback/
Well, you learn something every day. Today I have learned that the basis upon which QAnon was founded is that in order to take back government from the global paedophile, blood of babies-drinking lefties, a military coup will be necessary!!!
I know it sounds crazy and likely unlikely but you just don’t know these days and, as goes Donald Trump, so goes his Mini Mes given half a chance.
This clip is by an authoritative researcher into the QAnon movement:
https://youtu.be/V21ULmf91m4
Mouse plague impacts widen to native birds as EPA confirms galahs killed by bait
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-04/bird-victims-of-suspected-mice-baiting/100187904
Jaeger
Not an unexpected outcome, I’m afraid.
All ready for Scotty to open in 2022 ?
There is no question that the Feds will now fight to the death every declaration of a hotspot, so that they don’t have to pay out.
Morning bludgers
Thanks BK for today’s reports.
Why are COVID tests that are so inaccurate allowed to be used. WA was shutdown for one case – two false positive tests would have cost us billions. Who knows how much those two wrong tests have cost Victoria and the Federal Government?
poroti says:
Friday, June 4, 2021 at 7:57 am
According to Simon Benson, Scott Morrison will commit $200 million to the construction of a 500-bed Victorian quarantine facility at Avalon under a plan close to finalisation ahead of today’s national cabinet meeting.
All ready for Scotty to open in 2022 ?
————–
Around december this year probably
Bob McMullan
“From Newspoll, Labor’s primary vote reached a nadir of 34% on several occasions up to 7 November. Since that time, it has been consistently higher, ranging from 36% to 41%.”
41%, Really?
Ben Roberts-Smith launches proceedings against ex-wife on eve of trial
https://www.smh.com.au/national/ben-roberts-smith-launches-proceedings-against-ex-wife-on-eve-of-trial-20210603-p57xsd.html
Biden Blocks 59 Chinese Companies in Amended Trump Order
President Joe Biden signed an order Thursday amending a ban on U.S. investment in Chinese companies begun under his predecessor, naming 59 firms with ties to China’s military or in the surveillance industry, including Huawei Technologies Co. and the country’s three biggest telecommunications companies.
The ban on new investments will take effect Aug. 2 at 12:01 a.m. in New York, according to administration officials who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity. Investors will have one year to fully divest.
Among the defense companies on Biden’s list are Aviation Industry Corp. of China, Ltd., which is one of the best known of the Chinese military giants; China North Industries Group Corp.; China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation Ltd.; and China Shipbuilding Industry Co.
Biden’s list also includes Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., the developer of surveillance cameras and facial-recognition technology that has helped Chinese authorities roll out “safe city” initiatives in Xinjiang, where ethnic Uyghurs have faced persecution.
Companies on Biden’s list that weren’t covered in Trump’s initial ban include Zhonghang Electronic Measuring Instruments Co. and Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-03/biden-to-blacklist-59-chinese-companies-in-amended-trump-order?srnd=premium-asia
C@t
I have followed the qanon conspiracy for sometime.
Watched one of the latest docos about the origin of it and who was behind it.
This doco kind of settled on the Watkins son and father team.
I always felt that the hand of support to them came from nefarious sources.
Will we ever know?
The conspiracy has bought into some of the old conspiracies of the nazis against the Jews and tropes even going back further to the middle ages.
My view is that the seed was deliberately planted to project the liberals as the bad guys, and trump as the saviour.
In order to insulate Trump and his cronies from the reality that they engaged in bad behaviour.
Of course not to the ridiculous extremes of what qanon are espousing.
But that is part of the plot.
Accuse the enemy of such outlandish crimes that any crimes that could come back go Trump and his cronies, would seem inconsequential.
This disinformation campaign succeeded in brainwashing Trump supporters, and sadly due to the pandemic has gone to next level cray cray.
That is. The pandemic is a hoax. Vaccines are really micro chips, etc etc.
And the really sad part about all this, is that middle aged people who should be more discerning and wise, have bought into it hook line and sinker.
Buce
Do you know how many tests were conducted in the state of Victoria during this past week alone?
sprocket_ says:
Friday, June 4, 2021 at 6:33 am
Look at the old western style/british style, women stand back, while the ‘men’ write.
We have gone back to the stone age.
Zerlo
It is great to see how faithfully the CPC congress reflects China’s gender balance is it not?
https://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/news-photo/delegates-listen-to-the-internationale-at-the-end-of-the-news-photo/865679364?adppopup=true
That interpretation of the PM signing an official document seems to reach the heights of absurdity.
Re Poroti
I believe it is genuine, taken at some formal occasion.( Governor General’s place ?.
The desk is a signing table, like at a wedding. It is not used for working. Morrison was signing a condolence book for the death of the Duke of Edinburgh.
Jenny probably also signed the document.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2021/06/04/covidsafe-app-cost/
Zerlo,
Er, Scott Morrison is the Prime Minister, not his wife. He’s the one who has to sign that stuff.
It’s an odd photo, certainly, but there’s nothing backwards about the PM doing what the PM is supposed to do.
The New Liberals seem to be an actual liberal party. Unfortunately the name “Liberal” had been taken by hard right reactionaries so they needed another name.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/04/brittany-higgins-hospitalised-and-receiving-support-after-months-of-political-pressure
shellbell @ #33 Friday, June 4th, 2021 – 8:09 am
Bob McMullan is not prone to lying. Are you trying to suggest he is?
Bucephalus says:
Friday, June 4, 2021 at 8:07 am
Why are COVID tests that are so inaccurate allowed to be used. WA was shutdown for one case – two false positive tests would have cost us billions. Who knows how much those two wrong tests have cost Victoria and the Federal Government?
This comment shows complete ignorance. We are running at about 50000 tests a day, two false positives over days makes it an amazingly accurate test. In fact it is in the same area as your risk of getting blood clots from the AstraZeneca jab.
Cat:
I’ve been following the ongoing saga too, though I have not listened to that podcast. Will have to check it when I get a chance.
It’s also why I have a very real fear about putting Peter Dutton into Defence here in Australia. He wouldn’t think twice about using the military if he thought he needed to.
While I’m sure Dutton gets a massive erection at the very thought of staging a military coup, I am (perhaps naively) confident that would be an incredibly difficult and dangerous feat to pull off in Australia, and that Dutton is smart enough to know that.
It’s incredible how short memory is, even here!
We discussed this photo to death (yes, it’s the officially released picture of Promo at the GGs signing the condolence book for Prince Philip) and yet some posters seem to have forgotten it.
What hope do we have when even some Bludgers don’t remember.
Oh, and on the question of who knows what, I was utterly gobsmacked when my Liberal voting brother (who had just spent a month in Queensland and was relating some bashing of Premier Palaszczuk by a mate of his) said he did not even know which party she belonged to.
Steve777 says:
Friday, June 4, 2021 at 8:33 am
The New Liberals seem to be an actual liberal party. Unfortunately the name “Liberal” had been taken by hard right reactionaries so they needed another name.
——————————-
It was once called the Turnbull Coalition Team, could it be called
Morrison Coalition Team ? or Dutton Coalition Team?