Essential Research and Redbridge Group Victorian poll

One pollster records nervous attitudes towards China, another a modest lead for the Labor government in Victoria.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll offers questions on foreign relations that include the finding that 51% believe Australia should become less close to China, down three points since December, with 24% believing relations should stay the same and only 12% believing they should get closer. By contrast, respondents were positive about relations with, in ascending order of enthusiasm, the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Further questions record a surge for the influence of the United States since May last year and the intervening presidential election result.

An occasionally recurring question on climate change also found 56% believing it to be caused by human activity against 27% for normal fluctuation, suggesting a slight shift to skepticism since a few years ago. Forty-five per cent rate that Australia is not doing enough on climate change compared with 30% for enough and 12% for too much. Assessments on this question appear to have become more lenient since the onset of COVID-19, prior to which “not doing enough” was at upwards of 60%. A series of related questions record enthusiasm for renewable energy and a zero emissions target. The poll was conducted online from Wednesday to Sunday with a sample of 1087.

We also had a Victorian state poll yesterday in the Herald-Sun from Redbridge Group, which is run by former Labor operatives Simon Welsh and Kosmos Samaras. The primary votes are solidly better for the Coalition than last week’s Resolve Strategic poll in The Age, showing them with a lead of 41% to 37%, but Labor is nonetheless credited with a lead of 52.4-47.6 on two-party preferred, reflecting a Greens vote of 12% compared with Resolve Strategic’s 9%. These come with regional breakdowns that can be viewed here.

The poll also has a preferred premier question had Daniel Andrews at 42.4%, Michael O’Brien on 23.1% and neither on 28.2%; Andrews leads James Merlino 67.5% to 32.5% in a head-to-head question on preferred Labor leader, and O’Brien trails his predecessor Matthew Guy by 63-37. The poll was conducted June 12 to 15 from a sample of 1484.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,486 comments on “Essential Research and Redbridge Group Victorian poll”

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  1. Andrew Clennell
    @aclennell
    ·
    1h
    NSW MPs ‘very annoyed’ Berejiklian has not been forced to isolate: Clennell | Sky News Australia
    NSW MPs ‘very annoyed’ Berejiklian has not been forced to isolate: Clennell | Sky News Australia
    Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell says it has been put to him Gladys Berejiklian was “within two feet” of Adam Marshall – who tested positive to COVID-19 – yet she has not been required to…
    skynews.com.au
    Andrew Clennell Retweeted
    Ross Wilson
    @rosswilsonmusic
    ·
    1h
    That was my thought too while watching their Glad on the Tele this morning #COVID19nsw
    Quote Tweet
    Hugh Gnu
    @HughGnu
    · 1h
    Replying to @Schtang @Helena_Sindelar and 2 others
    She spent days this week in close proximity to both Ministers who are now positive. Why is she not in isolation for 14 days?

  3. ‘Mavis says:
    Thursday, June 24, 2021 at 8:03 pm

    boerwar:

    Thursday, June 24, 2021 at 7:02 pm

    [‘Mavis

    ‘…
    Mr Roberts-Smith agreed that he had “conflated” more than one battle when giving his account of the incident which won him his MG, but had not meant to.
    …’
    __________________________________________________
    Bloody hell.’]

    If he couldn’t get that right, it strongly suggests that anything he says should be treated with quite a degree of skepticism. In short, it goes to his credibility which is so important when a judge is required to determine a case on diametrically opposing evidence.’
    ______________________________________
    That had sort of occurred to me as well.

  4. “Miami-area condo collapse causes massive emergency response:
    The sea-view side of a beachfront condo tower collapsed in the Miami-area town of Surfside early Thursday, drawing a massing response from emergency services.”

    Multi Story appartments built on a beachfront sand dune. Surprised it doesn’t happen more often.

  5. Cud Chewer at 8:12 pm
    One ‘variable’ nailed down. Gladys’ plague envoy to NZ had his injection 10 weeks ago and his partner about 3 weeks ago.

  6. Fantastic interview with Clint Watts, FBI Counter Extremism expert on the various ways that Russia conducts its Disinformation and Misinformation cyber warfare on the West, how successful they have been and how outlets like Fox News, Oan, RT and others willingly help Putin:

    https://youtu.be/slIqcbGypJY

    From the 25.00 minute mark.

  8. I haven’t been watching proceedings closely, I am not very good at punditry on legal cases and I am no fan of the person who is suing for defamation…. yet I feel concerned about the well being of BRS right now.

  9. imacca

    I’m reminded of some of the older buildings in Surfers Paradise. I’ve stayed in a few of those. Cheaply built. Sitting on sand.

  11. ‘imacca says:
    Thursday, June 24, 2021 at 8:43 pm

    “Miami-area condo collapse causes massive emergency response:
    The sea-view side of a beachfront condo tower collapsed in the Miami-area town of Surfside early Thursday, drawing a massing response from emergency services.”

    Multi Story appartments built on a beachfront sand dune. Surprised it doesn’t happen more often.’
    ____________________________________________
    I am not sure whether it applies to this particular location but a sleeper is that the bedrock limestones are in some sort of erosion trouble having to do with water flows pursuant to a combination of urbanization and global warming. Miami is spending a fortune raising roads and pumping water.

    https://www.architectmagazine.com/practice/can-miami-design-a-solution-to-rising-seas_o

  15. C@t

    Far too convenient. Doesn’t explain why others have to isolate for 14 days even if their test comes back negative.

  17. Cud Chewer @ #966 Thursday, June 24th, 2021 – 8:50 pm

    imacca

    I’m reminded of some of the older buildings in Surfers Paradise. I’ve stayed in a few of those. Cheaply built. Sitting on sand.

    I was thinking the same thing. With the level of shonkiness in the build quality of many Australian apartment buildings these days, how long will it be before the same thing happens in Queensland, or anywhere else where these things are built on sand dunes? Just look at Wamberal Beach on the Central Coast and Collaroy on the Northern Beaches.

  18. As for CNN, the article of the day for me is the interview with David Beasley of WFP regarding the famine of Madagascar. For a Republican, he really lets loose on Western countries and corporations and billionaires for not doing enough to help poor countries prepare for a changing climate.

  22. Rex Douglas:

    Thursday, June 24, 2021 at 8:06 pm

    [‘BRS seems to digging himself deeper in trouble.

    I don’t suppose the brass in charge over in Afghanistan will ever be properly held accountable for the culture.’]

    It’s been known for yonks that certain elements of the SASR were out of control, but no one had the guts to take the issue on, so it just got worse. If the allegations against Roberts-Smith & Co are proven, heads should roll from the top down to the NCOs, but I fear only the small fry will be brought to book.

    What’s needed is far better parliamentary oversight of troops deployed in either a war or conflict zone, particularly in cases where there’s an extended deployment such as Afghanistan. It should be a standing committee armed with near plenary powers. Those witnessing serious incidents or war crimes should feel confident that the information they provide is kept confidential until such time as they’re required to give sworn evidence if it comes to that.

    One of the allegations against Roberts-Smith is that he
    “bloodied” a young digger. At the time, if he felt he witnessed a war crime where could he go, who could he turn to, certainly not up the chain of command? A lot of the younger diggers who served in Afganistan won’t start reliving their experiences until a later age and will end up as traumatised as those who served in other wars or conflicts. Regrettably, the current Defence Minister is definitely not the person to address this issue. We will have to wait for a change of government.

  23. Cud Chewer at 8:48 pm

    . How the fuck did she get a “casual” classification?

    Because these days she is only close to her Boo, everyone else is casual 🙂

  24. Why do ABC QandA hosts ALWAYS permit loudmouthed government panelists to monopolize discussion, talking over others, spouting obvious bullshit, being generally FAR more obnoxious than other guests?

  28. boerwar

    I am not sure whether it applies to this particular location but a sleeper is that the bedrock limestones

    You triggered a memory of reading about Florida’s bigly problem. May even have been this article.
    .
    .
    Sinkholes: A deadly threat from Florida’s ‘underworld’

    Virtually the whole of the Sunshine state, from the Keys in the south to the border with Georgia in the north, is a vast limestone platform that is flushed with groundwater ………….The result is a state collapsing in on itself. Amid the city streets, quiet suburbs and citrus groves, holes are often opening up to reveal a new hidden Florida.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-25983415

  29. Sceptic.

    Keating was right about QandA.

    Why would any sensible politician go there?

    And why would anyone watch?

    I may have once or twice way back when.

  30. “And it’s been downhill ever since.

    And, big deal, Queensland. How about a national figure? Or a figure from a few other states? Afraid you might have to paint an unflattering picture?”

    ***

    Downhill for the Greens in Queensland since the 2019 Fed Election? I think Jackie Trad might strongly disagree with that statement lol.

    Sure, let’s have a look at some of the other Senate swings the Greens picked up in 2019, shall we?

    NSW: +1.32
    Vic: -0.25
    Qld: +3.13
    WA: +1.48
    NT: -0.54
    SA: +5.03! Go SHY!
    Tas: +1.41
    ACT: +1.61

    https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-24310-NAT.htm

    Quite a flattering picture, actually. How were Labor’s Senate swings in 2019? I’ll give you a hint; they don’t look nearly as good.

  32. Premier Adani should be happy, her mine just stuck coal…

    Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says coal is ‘needed’ while lecturing Morrison-Joyce government on climate

    “They’re the ones who are proposing a coal mine right on the Great Barrier Reef,” she said.

    The position is somewhat at odds with the Palaszczuk government’s approval of the construction of the Carmichael coal mine in Central Queensland, a royalties deal with Adani completed on the eve of last year’s state election.

    When quizzed by reporters on Wednesday about this confusing policy position, the Premier spruiked the benefits of thermal energy sources.

    “Coal is going to be needed across the globe for many years to come, including gas, including renewables,” Ms Palaszczuk said.

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/queensland-premier-annastacia-palaszczuk-says-coal-is-needed-while-lecturing-morrisonjoyce-government-on-climate/news-story/ef0fb83b1ee8a5e2ee83975f366651c6

  33. poroti
    That’s it.
    The rising sea waters are increasing flow rates which are increasing erosion. The increasing acidification is probably speeding up the erosion rates. (I am not aware that that is being measured but it will become a growing factor.) I seem to recall that increased pumping of freshwater mounds for water supplies is another factor.
    They are already spending hundreds of millions on this but the more they pump the faster they are fucked.

  35. Gold plated bullshit artists Gladys & Deputy Commissioner Warboys need to stop looking for scapegoats & ensure the legislation is clear & unambiguous

    “While rules for transport crews were beefed up earlier this month to require drivers to undergo daily testing for Covid-19, NSW’s public health orders don’t include mask mandates, nor do they say drivers must be vaccinated” …The Guardian

  37. Simon Katich @ #975 Thursday, June 24th, 2021 – 8:52 pm

    As for CNN, the article of the day for me is the interview with David Beasley of WFP regarding the famine of Madagascar. For a Republican, he really lets loose on Western countries and corporations and billionaires for not doing enough to help poor countries prepare for a changing climate.

    You have to admit though, America is having its own problems right now with the effects of Global Heating. Nevada is virtually uninhabitable during the day in Mid Summer:

    Fueled by climate change, the first major heat wave of the summer has seized the western United States, toppling records and threatening lives. The event is unprecedented in its timing, intensity and scope, said Washington State University climate scientist Deepti Singh; never have such severe conditions been recorded over such a large area so early in the summer.

    At least five weather stations, including Salt Lake City and Palm Springs, Calif., have matched their all-time high temperatures this week, months before the hottest part of the season. Las Vegas set a new daily record, at 116 degrees. In Death Valley, Calif., on Thursday, thermometers read 128 degrees.

    Coupled with a catastrophic drought that has damaged crops and shrunk vital reservoirs to all-time lows, the blazing weather is a trademark of human-caused warming, Singh said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/06/17/record-heat-wave-west/

  39. Sinny folk are going to be living in ‘interesting times’ for the next few days. Will the fickle finger of fate give Sinny the thumbs up or thumbs down ?

  41. Simon, re Roberts-Smith. I somewhat agree with your
    concerns about him, though it is said that the truth will set you free. If he has transgressed he does have options open to him, even at this late stage.

  48. Hooke asserted he was put under pressure to come forward. Does exhibit 14 permit an inference as to where that pressure came from?

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