Essential Research and Redbridge Group Victorian poll

One pollster records nervous attitudes towards China, another a modest lead for the Labor government in Victoria.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll offers questions on foreign relations that include the finding that 51% believe Australia should become less close to China, down three points since December, with 24% believing relations should stay the same and only 12% believing they should get closer. By contrast, respondents were positive about relations with, in ascending order of enthusiasm, the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Further questions record a surge for the influence of the United States since May last year and the intervening presidential election result.

An occasionally recurring question on climate change also found 56% believing it to be caused by human activity against 27% for normal fluctuation, suggesting a slight shift to skepticism since a few years ago. Forty-five per cent rate that Australia is not doing enough on climate change compared with 30% for enough and 12% for too much. Assessments on this question appear to have become more lenient since the onset of COVID-19, prior to which “not doing enough” was at upwards of 60%. A series of related questions record enthusiasm for renewable energy and a zero emissions target. The poll was conducted online from Wednesday to Sunday with a sample of 1087.

We also had a Victorian state poll yesterday in the Herald-Sun from Redbridge Group, which is run by former Labor operatives Simon Welsh and Kosmos Samaras. The primary votes are solidly better for the Coalition than last week’s Resolve Strategic poll in The Age, showing them with a lead of 41% to 37%, but Labor is nonetheless credited with a lead of 52.4-47.6 on two-party preferred, reflecting a Greens vote of 12% compared with Resolve Strategic’s 9%. These come with regional breakdowns that can be viewed here.

The poll also has a preferred premier question had Daniel Andrews at 42.4%, Michael O’Brien on 23.1% and neither on 28.2%; Andrews leads James Merlino 67.5% to 32.5% in a head-to-head question on preferred Labor leader, and O’Brien trails his predecessor Matthew Guy by 63-37. The poll was conducted June 12 to 15 from a sample of 1484.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,486 comments on “Essential Research and Redbridge Group Victorian poll”

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  1. This is the recipe I follow (except for the celery, not a fan):

    Celery adds a fresh spicy flavour. It is also essential in Spag bolognaise. I do, however, dice it much finer and sauté it well. I often will replace onion with it. And if brave use the leaves.

  2. I really don’t want to say anything totally wrong and spiteful about Donald Trump (so I’ll think it) but he’s now signing off his missives to his cult followers with the tag line:

    ‘2024 or before’ 😡

  3. Is Gladys going to say it’s all proportionate?

    Joe O’Brien
    @JoeABCNews
    ·
    29m
    BREAKING .. SYDNEY COVID
    Positive COVID case has popped up 60km south-west of Sydney at Narellan Vale Daycare Centre.
    Little Zak’s has shut down temporarily
    11am release of NSW COVID overall figures.

  4. See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Alan Baxter ♛
    @AlanBixter
    You might be wondering why Scott Morrison REALLY flew 50 people half way around the world and back again in the middle of a pandemic. Not for the G7 – they didn’t attend. Nor the graveyard. Not to get pissed at a pub, only half went there… This is my guess: /2
    9:49 AM · Jun 23, 2021·Twitter Web App
    12
    Retweets
    45
    Likes
    Alan Baxter ♛
    @AlanBixter
    ·
    37m
    Replying to
    @AlanBixter
    These guys are the political campaign strategists that Scott Morrison used to deceptively win the last election, and that Boris Johnson used to deceptively win his last election. They are good at data harvesting and targeted opinion changing.
    C|T Group – Research. Strategies. Results.
    Founded by campaign strategists Sir Lynton Crosby and Mark Textor, the C|T Group offers a world renowned brand of successful, research-driven campaigns.
    ctgroup.com

  5. Amazing that not one republican senator could find it in their void where their heart was to vote to allow debate on the voting rights bill. Not a single one wanted to open the debate. Even Manchin and Sinema were on board with the simple procedural motion.

    Bipartisanship with these autocrats? Ha.

    Well, we will see how the John Lewis bill goes. But that wont be for a few months at least.

  6. Well there ya go and only 15 months late. Cynical me thinks it is all about pleasing certain shareholder groups of Coalition inc. By the time it is built and bedded down we’ll likely be looking at accepting foreign students, workers etc.
    .
    .
    NEW QUARANTINE FACILITY IN VICTORIA—APPROVAL OF WORK

    Mrs [Nola] Marino (Assistant Minister for Regional Development and Territories), for Mr [Ben] Morton (Assistant Minister to the Prime Minister and Cabinet), pursuant to notice, moved—That, in accordance with the provisions of the Public Works Committee Act 1969, and by reason of the urgent nature of the works, it is expedient that the following work be carried out without having been referred to the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Public
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/jun/23/australia-politics-live-scott-morrison-barnaby-joyce-nsw-victoria-covid-new-zealand

  7. How can Manchin and Sinema deny the reality of the Republican opposition to anything positive Biden wants to do? That would forestall the Republican march to One Party Rule?

  8. Victoria says:
    Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 10:31 am
    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Alan Baxter ♛
    @AlanBixter
    You might be wondering why Scott Morrison REALLY flew 50 people half way around the world and back again in the middle of a pandemic. Not for the G7 – they didn’t attend. Nor the graveyard. Not to get pissed at a pub, only half went there… This is my guess: /2
    9:49 AM · Jun 23, 2021·Twitter Web App
    12
    Retweets
    45
    Likes
    Alan Baxter ♛
    @AlanBixter
    ·
    37m
    Replying to
    @AlanBixter
    These guys are the political campaign strategists that Scott Morrison used to deceptively win the last election, and that Boris Johnson used to deceptively win his last election. They are good at data harvesting and targeted opinion changing.
    C|T Group – Research. Strategies. Results.
    Founded by campaign strategists Sir Lynton Crosby and Mark Textor, the C|T Group offers a world renowned brand of successful, research-driven campaigns.
    ctgroup.com

    Quite likely. The LNP never cease working on the next campaign. They will be lining up the ducks.

  9. Socrates from the previous thread:

    South Australia will see a pre-election spending spree, from the party of fiscal responsibility. A deficit of $1.8 billion is substantial by SA standards.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-22/sa-budget-2021-winners-and-losers/100229878

    Usual strategy: Be Santa Claus on election year, Ebenezer Scrooge the rest of the time.

    The Liberals also get to do this because we expect them to be harsh, so it’s a “welcome surprise” when they throw money around. Whereas Labor are treated as irresponsible when they spend and cruel (and “Lib-Lab: Same-same”) when they don’t. As I have previously said on here, it’s the adequacy problem. One side is considered a success if they are viewed as adequate and the other side is considered as not good enough if similarly viewed.

  10. From Guardian blog….

    We will receive the NSW numbers very soon, but there are unconfirmed reports four members of the NSW Nationals party are in self-isolation after potential exposure at a factional dinner earlier in the week.

  11. C@tmomma @ #93 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 10:14 am

    ItzaDream @ #83 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 10:07 am

    C@tmomma @ #77 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 10:03 am

    Victoria @ #72 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 9:59 am

    C@t

    For my youngest, Minestrone is the go in winter! Lol.

    I make a mean one of them too. 😀

    Ok, minestrone challenge on the agenda.

    This is the recipe I follow (except for the celery, not a fan):

    https://www.recipetineats.com/minestrone-soup/

    The Worcestershire Sauce and the Bacon seem to be the secret sauce ingredients.

    Good one. Mine’s from Elizabeth Romer, a lovely book besides the very traditional recipes

    https://www.marlowesbooks.com/The-Tuscan-Year.-Life-And-Food-In-An-Italian-Valley-Romer-Elizabeth-Book-122448?

  12. On the ARENA disallowance:

    Pulling CCS and gas-to-H2 out of the instrument is very good, but removing:

    “heavy transport, low-emission cars, industrial energy efficiency and micro-grid pilot programs”

    not so good. E.g. me and a hundred or more of my colleagues spent a few hours each on the micro-grid pilot program design this week. It was looking promising and valuable.

  13. C@tmomma @ #108 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 10:05 am

    How can Manchin and Sinema deny the reality of the Republican opposition to anything positive Biden wants to do? That would forestall the Republican march to One Party Rule?

    It cant go on like this. With Texas and Georgia and Arizona going full on with voting restrictions and the usual gerrymandering and the Florida demographics not turning blue as some predicted, Ohio and Iowa now solid red and Pa and maybe a couple of others on the cusp…. I cant see how the Democrats will get a significant majority (or even bare majority) in either house for the foreseeable future. SCOTUS will no longer be of any use with attempts to control gerrymandering.

    If they dont do something now only a miracle turnout in the midterms will give them a second bite at this before it is too late.

    I still reckon a split is a good bet. Surely one of the betting agencies have odds on such a thing.

  14. Simon Katich @ #101 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 10:21 am

    This is the recipe I follow (except for the celery, not a fan):

    Celery adds a fresh spicy flavour. It is also essential in Spag bolognaise. I do, however, dice it much finer and sauté it well. I often will replace onion with it. And if brave use the leaves.

    Celery *with* some leaves, yes, lovely, gently sautéed with the carrots and onion and bit of garlic.

  15. So glad the good voters of Maine gave Susan “Concerned” Collins another chance. She’s voting just like any other Republican but she sure shows the occasional bit of virtue by very occasionally voting against the party line (usually when her vote is completely superfluous.)

  16. Dandy Murray says:
    Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 10:41 am
    On the ARENA disallowance:

    Pulling CCS and gas-to-H2 out of the instrument is very good, but removing:

    “heavy transport, low-emission cars, industrial energy efficiency and micro-grid pilot programs”

    not so good. E.g. me and a hundred or more of my colleagues spent a few hours each on the micro-grid pilot program design this week. It was looking promising and valuable.>

    Concur.

  17. unconfirmed reports four members of the NSW Nationals party are in self-isolation after potential exposure at a factional dinner earlier in the week.
    —————————————————————————-

    Were they with Barnaby Joyce ?

  18. Paula Mathewson has some questions…

    A question about boundaries – is it appropriate for the partner of the Deputy Prime Minister, who works for the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, to (1) write a weekly column for a tabloid newspaper and (2) participate in Coalition #QT tactics meetings? #AusPol

  19. To give credit where it is due, well done to Labor (and the Greens) on voting down the gutting of ARENA in the Senate last night. I still find Labor’s policy on climate change schizophrenic, but this was one of the good moments.

  20. Wat Tyler @ #110 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 10:10 am

    Socrates from the previous thread:

    South Australia will see a pre-election spending spree, from the party of fiscal responsibility. A deficit of $1.8 billion is substantial by SA standards.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-22/sa-budget-2021-winners-and-losers/100229878

    Usual strategy: Be Santa Claus on election year, Ebenezer Scrooge the rest of the time.

    The Liberals also get to do this because we expect them to be harsh, so it’s a “welcome surprise” when they throw money around. Whereas Labor are treated as irresponsible when they spend and cruel (and “Lib-Lab: Same-same”) when they don’t. As I have previously said on here, it’s the adequacy problem. One side is considered a success if they are viewed as adequate and the other side is considered as not good enough if similarly viewed.

    Lucas got another back rub from the ABC morning radio jock. And looks like a lot of people will be utilising mates in Vic and NSW to buy their EV (shhhhh, dont tell). SA the innovation and technology state? Ha.

    However, they have committed to transitioning their car fleet to EVs and encouraging Local Gov to do the same. And supposed to be rolling out more fast charge stations which I reckon arent really the best way to get peeps to buy EVs. A real shame they didnt jump on board with Vic and NSW.

  21. Good Morning

    On the Democrats losing the voting rights act.

    The defeat of the filibuster is more likely. This was exactly the situation Manchin was talking about with his donors that would force him to vote to change the filibuster.

    So I am hoping that power and the stark consequences of loss in this vote are going to see that change happen. Don’t expect until after the infrastructure bill goes through reconciliation.

    Yes I believe the GOP will block that too. As soon as Biden delivers that they have a we are not Trump argument.
    Trump will be busy thinking of a nickname for De Santis after he beat Trump in a poll.

    Those are the two real games in town. The voting rights legislation is all about forcing the conservative Democrats to be Democrats and not Republican lite on core democratic values they can’t win on in their local elections.

    So take Manchin’s comments to his donors seriously and watch the infrastructure bill and for filibuster reform.

  22. boerwar says:
    Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 8:17 am

    I look forward to being rewarded for the thousands of trees we planted on our land. These trees were good for biodiversity. They cost us time, energy and funds. The land they now occupy – hhihgly productive valuable flood plain land is now not producing income. Instead it is costing us funds to control weeds and destructive ferals
    _________________________
    Well done Boerwar. I don’t know how you found the time to do all this with your shifts on PB, but if this is true, congrats I hope you do get some cash for it.

  23. England cricket legend Michael Vaughan has publicly declared the 2021-22 Ashes series in Australia should be “called off”.

    The former England captain said reports that players could be forced to tour Australia without their families for four months was “unacceptable”.

    The reports this week suggest England’s touring squad will be forced to say goodbye to their family members, who may not be allowed into Australia as part of Australia’s ongoing strict border protection measures.

    Australia’s Covid-19 restrictions mean the border is closed to all travellers from abroad, while Cricket Australia is reportedly seeking special permission for the partners and children of players and staff to be allowed to join the players this summer.

  24. @RDNS_TAI tweets

    Tackling climate change doesn’t harm manufacturing, it helps it. Australia’s manufacturing has shrunk as our emissions have been rising while missions are falling in big manufacturing countries like Germany. Check out the The Spin Bin #auspol #cliamte

    youtube.com/watch?v=oEjsBZ…

    Just search spin bin Mick Mack on YouTube

  25. Recon @ #124 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 10:28 am

    boerwar says:
    Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 8:17 am

    I look forward to being rewarded for the thousands of trees we planted on our land. These trees were good for biodiversity. They cost us time, energy and funds. The land they now occupy – hhihgly productive valuable flood plain land is now not producing income. Instead it is costing us funds to control weeds and destructive ferals
    _________________________
    Well done Boerwar. I don’t know how you found the time to do all this with your shifts on PB, but if this is true, congrats I hope you do get some cash for it.

    I think BW owes PB and will allow us the honour of naming his bush block.
    I will start the voting off.

    Wombat Reserve.

  26. poroti says:
    Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 11:00 am

    Recon
    Boerwar will make a fortune when the trees are all logged
    ______________
    NO! He’s clearly a self hating Greenie. 🙂

  27. England cricket legend Michael Vaughan has publicly declared the 2021-22 Ashes series in Australia should be “called off”.

    being flogged by NZ at home has nothing to do with it.

  28. #COVID19nsw NEW snap NSW restrictions from 4PM TODAY for 7 days (do so immediately if you’re able to):

    – 5 visitors max
    – All seated at venues
    – No singing / dancing (exc. weddings)
    – 1 per 4 sq/m rule (inc. funerals, weddings)
    – 50% crowds at stadiums
    – Masks at ALL indoors


  29. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 9:51 am
    The interesting question is when Glads would consider a state lockdown.

    Otoh this cluster is 80% in the Eastern Suburbs and a lockdown of that area would almost be as easy as the Northern Beaches but with significantly more whinging

    True dat.

  30. Heidi Murphy
    @heidimur
    ·
    2m
    NSW: Gym classes limited to 20 and must be masked.
    And if you live or work in 7 outbreak LGAs – you can’t travel beyond metro Sydney for next 7 days.

  31. @oz_f tweets

    Bizarre stuff. The only fundamental difference between Vic and NSW is that the latter has had a historically much better resourced and well set up public health system, while Vic’s is privatised and gutted. It’s not even about Gladys vs. Dan, it predates both.

    @RNBreakfast tweets

    People in NSW not as “respectful” of COVID-19 as Victorians – Health with Dr @normanswan

  32. What amazes me is that several Republican senators come from states with independent redistricting commissions. What are they scared of with these voting bills?


  33. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 9:58 am
    Victoria @ #69 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 9:57 am

    C@t

    Always good to have extra pasta on hand!

    Good carbs, Vic.
    Along with a tasty Bolognese, there’s not much better than that in Winter for dinner.

    Even easier than that to cook. 🙂

  34. The statement by Dr Chant that it’s gone from 15 minutes to 2 or 3 seconds to catch Covid was very good communication earlier today.

    That’s something every person can understand


  35. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 9:59 am
    Bert @ #65 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 9:55 am

    Morning after the night before report on vaccination, bugger all. No sore arm, no headache, no nothing. All good.

    I was the same. I kept waiting for something to happen and nothing did!

    It is like you want something to happen. 🙂

  36. Guytaur

    Is Kerry chant going to get lambasted fr0m the media and the opposition. Cos our CHO was for suggestion that the delta variant was highly contagious

  37. Watching Kerry Chant give out the grim news…

    Unlinked cases.
    Superspreading birthday party in Hoxton Park
    People infectious in the community unknowing
    Very rapid infectious rate.

    Why GladysB does not lockdown is beyond me

  38. Do we know yet how many of these 13 were already in isolation? Surely this has been asked by a journo. This info was front and centre yesterday when only 2 of the 10 new cases were not already isolating. Chant talking all around it atm.

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