Essential Research and Redbridge Group Victorian poll

One pollster records nervous attitudes towards China, another a modest lead for the Labor government in Victoria.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll offers questions on foreign relations that include the finding that 51% believe Australia should become less close to China, down three points since December, with 24% believing relations should stay the same and only 12% believing they should get closer. By contrast, respondents were positive about relations with, in ascending order of enthusiasm, the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Further questions record a surge for the influence of the United States since May last year and the intervening presidential election result.

An occasionally recurring question on climate change also found 56% believing it to be caused by human activity against 27% for normal fluctuation, suggesting a slight shift to skepticism since a few years ago. Forty-five per cent rate that Australia is not doing enough on climate change compared with 30% for enough and 12% for too much. Assessments on this question appear to have become more lenient since the onset of COVID-19, prior to which “not doing enough” was at upwards of 60%. A series of related questions record enthusiasm for renewable energy and a zero emissions target. The poll was conducted online from Wednesday to Sunday with a sample of 1087.

We also had a Victorian state poll yesterday in the Herald-Sun from Redbridge Group, which is run by former Labor operatives Simon Welsh and Kosmos Samaras. The primary votes are solidly better for the Coalition than last week’s Resolve Strategic poll in The Age, showing them with a lead of 41% to 37%, but Labor is nonetheless credited with a lead of 52.4-47.6 on two-party preferred, reflecting a Greens vote of 12% compared with Resolve Strategic’s 9%. These come with regional breakdowns that can be viewed here.

The poll also has a preferred premier question had Daniel Andrews at 42.4%, Michael O’Brien on 23.1% and neither on 28.2%; Andrews leads James Merlino 67.5% to 32.5% in a head-to-head question on preferred Labor leader, and O’Brien trails his predecessor Matthew Guy by 63-37. The poll was conducted June 12 to 15 from a sample of 1484.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,486 comments on “Essential Research and Redbridge Group Victorian poll”

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  1. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 11:15 am
    The statement by Dr Chant that it’s gone from 15 minutes to 2 or 3 seconds to catch Covid was very good communication earlier today.
    ———————————–

    But actions do not follow the words , Chant its allowing gladys to continue for people to live with the virus allowing it to spread . Insteading of locking down to try to stop it spreading

  2. @sarahinthesen8 tweets

    Barnaby Joyce has been deputy PM for two days and has just launched war on South Australia and the Murray Darling. This is shocking. Every South Australian should be angry that right now the National Party is moving in the senate to cut water from SA and the environment.

  3. Scott

    I agree. I am just giving credit where it’s due. Saying that in public increases the pressure on Berejikilian to do something

  4. 10 of todays caught COVID at a Hoxton Park birthday party attended by a guy who works at Bondi Westfield. They were isolating within 24 hours of becoming infectious but that 24 hours is problematic.

    There were >30 at the party.

  5. The only way you are going to get a government in NSW which will put health over the economy , is to get rid of the lib/nats , since the election is 2 years or about away , bad luck NSW

  6. guytaur @ #153 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 9:18 am

    @sarahinthesen8 tweets

    Barnaby Joyce has been deputy PM for two days and has just launched war on South Australia and the Murray Darling. This is shocking. Every South Australian should be angry that right now the National Party is moving in the senate to cut water from SA and the environment.

    I doubt the National Party even thinks about SA such is their profile in the State.

  7. I think NSW have done some good things tho. Masks and restricting travel from the hotspots etc buys them a little wriggle room on lockdowns. But it must be just around the corner. They are prepping everyone for it.

  8. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #158 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 10:52 am

    guytaur @ #153 Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021 – 9:18 am

    @sarahinthesen8 tweets

    Barnaby Joyce has been deputy PM for two days and has just launched war on South Australia and the Murray Darling. This is shocking. Every South Australian should be angry that right now the National Party is moving in the senate to cut water from SA and the environment.

    I doubt the National Party even thinks about SA such is their profile in the State.

    Dont worry, Simon Birmingham will shirt front him.


  9. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 10:03 am
    When it comes to the Australian electorate, the Coalition operates towards it by following the principle of, ‘The Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind’.

    Due you mean they create the perception of
    Vote LNP and get tax cuts
    Best managers of economy
    You can have your cake and eat it too
    What ‘Debt and deficit’.? See my wand . Whoosh gone. Magic
    Small government (but whispering reduction of services and user pays)

  10. I think NSW have done some good things tho. Masks and restricting travel from the hotspots etc buys them a little wriggle room on lockdowns. But it must be just around the corner. They are prepping everyone for it.

    They’ve got two days before school holidays kick off…


  11. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 10:04 am
    Oh yeah, and I saw all of one person with a mask on in Woy Woy when I was doing the shopping.

    I thought mask wearing is applicable to Greater Sydney Metropolitan area.

  12. Ven, I mean that the Coalition counts on the electorate forgetting their perfidy by the time the election rolls around and then being able to be distracted by Scott Morrison and his entirely superficial and misleading election campaign bs.

  13. Over to the other states now. What will the SA police commissioner do? I dont think they can realistically control incomings by LGA.

    Big jump in testing in NSW yesterday. 44k.

  14. Don’t sweat the details.
    Just remember that whatever it is you are looking is gold standard and that Our Glad Hander is saving the world.
    Again.

  15. That’s why we have said to assess your own situation. We don’t want people who are living or working in those LGA’s to spread or move around.

    If you happen to work in a regional community but travel to those LGA is, we recommend you consider working from home or else living in the LGA where you work. But for essential purposes, people can still conduct their business. Just be extra cautious. If it is for an essential reason, you are able to move around. But what we are saying is if you live or work in those LGA is, we don’t want you moving outside of metropolitan Sydney.

    Clear as.

  16. If dancing is not allowed , why would the chief medical officer not say something about dancing allowed at weddings ? , it’s not a good idea

  17. @marquelawyers tweets

    We don’t understand why Sydney is not being placed in lockdown, but we’re closing our office for the next week anyway.

  18. Jessicah Mullins
    @JesMullins
    ·
    11m
    .
    @GladysB was asked to clarify what she means by ‘Metro Sydney’. She snapped at the journalist and said ‘well, obviously most people know what Metro Sydney is’.

    This is a valid question in a public health emergency, restrictions are imposed based on this location! #auspol

    Alan Baxter ♛
    @AlanBixter
    3m
    I remember Dan Andrews being asked what he meant by Metro Melbourne and he reeled off a list of suburbs defining the boundaries, with special attention to the perimeters around the Bay.

  19. Will the Murdoch press attack Gladys and Kerry Chant the way they attacked Dan/Merlino and Brett Sutton.
    Certainly the comments on some of the articles in the HS are very close to undermining the health advice.

  20. @SharnelleVella tweets

    Restriction changes: these will remain in place for TWO weeks.
    15 home visitors across the entire state.
    50 outside in parks etc.
    Funerals and weddings 300.
    Venues can serve up to 300 but density limits apply.
    Work from home removed.
    Office caps 75% or 30 people. @7NewsMelbourne

  21. @Monocotyledon tweets

    I don’t know about the rest of you in Sydney, but I’m doing my own lockdown. This is madness.

    Gladys Berejiklian is running an experiment on how lax you can be in dealing with the Delta variant and unlinked cases without a massive wave of infections. Screw that.

  22. I think the reason the media aren’t as silly with Gladys is that they have genuine questions to ask, because what she’s saying is so unclear and contradictory. (Or maybe it isn’t, and I just haven’t understood her…)

  23. Had to make a quick trip to a shop in Beecroft this morning. At least 60% of people I saw were not masked. Some social distancing was happening. The two assistants in the shop I had to visit were properly masked, but this might be because their headquarters are in Melbourne and they are very conscious of what has happened to some of their southern colleagues.
    For B.B (as a former Beecroft/Cheltenham resident): I was in the vicinity of Village Arcade only.

    EDIT: added three words for clarity.

  24. For the actual words

    @SabraLane tweets
    @GladysB no mingling at hospitality venues — everyone has to be seated. No singing or dancing EXCEPT at weddings —
    for weddings no more than 20 people on the dance floor.
    ____________
    @mjrowland tweets

    NSW Premier @GladysB says COVID threats, like the one Sydney is now experiencing, will continue until the ‘vast majority’ of Australians are vaccinated. She reminds reporters the vaccine rollout is the responsibility of the federal government. #COVID19nsw #auspol

  25. I think this says it all..
    Our Glad..
    “Firstly, we don’t have sufficient vaccination to distinguish between those that have been vaccinated and those that haven’t.

    This particular strand is extremely contagious and we don’t have enough of the population vaccinated to make those distinctions.

    If we had a higher proportion of the population vaccinated, we could have considered it but we don’t know any of that.

    Having said that, this strain is contagious and rather random as to how you are impacted. You could be younger and suffer very serious health consequences or death.”

    Just come out & say it in plain english.. “Hunt & Scotty have fucked it up!”

  26. zoomster

    Gladys is almost impossible to follow for me. Too many qualifications and secondary phrases hanging off the main sentence. I get lost.

  27. @CharisChang2 tweets
    Gladys Berejiklian on why NSW not considering a lockdown:
    “We have considered all the options but we have always said we will not burden our citizens unless we absolutely have to.”
    She says the state knows where super spreading events have been and where the virus is circulating


  28. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 10:59 am
    England cricket legend Michael Vaughan has publicly declared the 2021-22 Ashes series in Australia should be “called off”.

    The former England captain said reports that players could be forced to tour Australia without their families for four months was “unacceptable”.

    The reports this week suggest England’s touring squad will be forced to say goodbye to their family members, who may not be allowed into Australia as part of Australia’s ongoing strict border protection measures.

    Australia’s Covid-19 restrictions mean the border is closed to all travellers from abroad, while Cricket Australia is reportedly seeking special permission for the partners and children of players and staff to be allowed to join the players this summer.

    What a bunch of wimps these English cricketers?
    When Indian cricket team toured this summer, they toured without their families. They were kept in strict quarantine conditions. When the father of one of the players died, he was afraid to go because he would not allowed back. Another did dis not go although his first child was born for the same reason.
    Now you want loosen the restrictions because they are from mother country.

  29. Stop hyperventilating Sydney is basically under lockdown with the best trace and track system in Australia working on it.
    You mob don’t even want the lockdown for peoples safety you want it for political point scoring. Now that is just plain sad.

  30. So a superspreader birthday party in Hoxton Park (50km from Bondi) in the Liverpool LGA, with 10 cases and counting, yet no inclusion in the restricted LGAs

  31. Disaster Politics 101.

    If things turn bad Gladys can follow Dan’s example and organise an inquiry that goes nowhere. We will find out that the health authorities never personally suggested to her that a lockdown was necessary.

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