Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

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  1. Morrison ….

    The situation has changed … and that’s why we’re ramping things up.

    I’m still trying to figure out just what has changed, but apparently now it is a race. What a shame we’re currently at the back of the peleton 🙁

  5. “…the LNP has been in Government since 2013 and has significant experience.”

    At what?

    Given recent history that would be Rorting, Character Assassination, W*nking on tables, rape seems to be something along with “praying” with rent boys.

  6. Barney

    Always with the attack from you.

    A clue for you.

    Workers rights for Labor. Self interest.

    Environment for Greens self interest.

    The fossil fuel industry will die. If we don’t act the human race will die. The environment not so much.

  8. GoldenSmaug says:
    Monday, July 12, 2021 at 3:26 pm

    Given recent history that would be Rorting, Character Assassination, W*nking on tables, rape seems to be something along with “praying” with rent boys.
    _______________
    Now don’t tell me Labor hasn’t been involved in doing those things!

  9. guytaur @ #455 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 1:29 pm

    Barney

    Always with the attack from you.

    A clue for you.

    Workers rights for Labor. Self interest.

    Environment for Greens self interest.

    The fossil fuel industry will die. If we don’t act the human race will die. The environment not so much.

    Not so, I just think it would do you good to take off you blinkers and consider things more fully first.

  11. guytaur @ #459 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 1:38 pm

    Barney

    You are the one with blinkers.
    Claiming without evidence Greens Senators hate Labor.

    I cited to you self interest reasons they don’t.

    I made no such claim.

    I questioned how you could know that they didn’t when you say that you are not a member of either Party.

  12. Given the significant role of racism, xenophobia and wacko nationalism in driving Brexit, the most destructive english decision for decades, there is a certain schadenfreude about the loss as well as a certain deja vu about some of the responses. And that is before we look at the increase in domestic violence. Plus, those who regard Johnson as a vile and destructive creep can but rejoice.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-12/england-fa-condemns-racist-attacks-online-after-euro-final-loss/100285982

  13. Seriously Rudd and Turnbull need to get a life. I think they must sit around all day polishing their egos.
    Anyone who thinks Rudd’s influence over Pfizer to speed up delivery can’t see the forest because of the trees.

  14. “…the LNP has been in Government since 2013 and has significant experience.”

    …at looking after their mates, especially those in fossil fuels.

  18. A spokesperson for Rudd has just released a statement that concludes …

    Mr Rudd would definitely not seek to associate himself with the Australian Government’s comprehensively botched vaccine procurement program.

    Ouch!

  19. michael @ #463 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 3:44 pm

    Seriously Rudd and Turnbull need to get a life. I think they must sit around all day polishing their egos.
    Anyone who thinks Rudd’s influence over Pfizer to speed up delivery can’t see the forest because of the trees.

    Add Howard to those two who should all stfu.

  23. So, Scotty got to speak with the local Larries and Rudd met with the head of Pfizer International.

    Morrison asked about whether Kevin Rudd helped secure additional vaccine supply from Pfizer.

    Well I can only go by what Pfizer said. I welcome the support from anyone who wants to exist and that’s fine. This is a contractual relationship between the federal government and Pfizer.

    Did he speak to the head of Pfizer?

    I’ve spoken to the head of Pfizer in Australia.

  24. Barney

    That’s my point. Labor people claiming the Greens hate Labor is a problem.

    At least my self interest argument has some facts behind it.
    It’s called representing your voters.

  25. Rex Douglas @ #466 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 3:16 pm

    Disgusting racism.

    But there were also darker undertones to the loss.

    Following the match, the three England players who missed the spot-kicks – and who are all black – were bombarded with racist abuse on social media.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/football-2/2021/07/12/euro-2020-final-reactions/

    Saka was distraught. He is 19. Some of the England public might be vile racists but Saka was immediately supported by his team mates, white and black.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0pPRY7Qr20

  26. Mr Rudd would definitely not seek to associate himself with the Australian Government’s comprehensively botched vaccine procurement program.

    A brutally cutting line from Rudd!

  27. guytaur @ #474 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 1:52 pm

    Barney

    That’s my point. Labor people claiming the Greens hate Labor is a problem.

    At least my self interest argument has some facts behind it.
    It’s called representing your voters.

    Have you ever thought that those people have experience dealing with the Greens Party that you and I have not.

  28. ‘Following the match, the three England players who missed the spot-kicks – and who are all black – were bombarded with racist abuse on social media. ”

    Ah soccer. The beautiful game!

  29. Barney

    Have you ever thought such claims are a two way street?
    Have you ever thought their values are the same as the voters they represent?
    As I said hold up a mirror.

  30. Rex
    “Add Howard to those two who should all stfu.”

    Agreed. Howard, the unflushable turd, bobbed up recently on ABC TV. Saw him on some boring show about the Archibalds, where said turd came across as an oblivious self-parody.

  31. And, of course, these disgusting racist ‘fans’ are probably the same ones who were spitting at 9yo Denmark supporters last week and then went home to beat up their wives.

  32. If you want to see why England lost the football just look at their theme song video “Fat Les Vindaloo”which also could well be a good depiction of the Morrison government.

  40. Mr Rudd’s letter is entirely consistent with public statements by Pfizer.

    Mr Rudd has not claimed responsibility for decisions by Pfizer and – as he made clear to Mr Morrison – all negotiating powers rested with the federal government

    Kevin Rudd is cleverer than his critics.

  41. Casey Briggs says
    Up to 64 of today’s cases spent some time in the community while infectious (12 partially isolated, 34 not isolated, 18 status still being determined)

  42. “The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.”…

    The trend is only gaining momentum, and this time around ScuMo will need more than just Murdoch, Costello, Hanson, Palmer…. and the average “miracle”.

    But ScuMo already suspected that Qld and WA were turning against him and the Coalition, and that’s why he hoped for a big swing in his favour in his home state of NSW, helped by “gold standard” Gladys. The very bad news for ScuMo is that Gladys’ standard is becoming “rusted iron” and the hoped-for gains in NSW are nowhere to be seen….

  44. Alpo,

    That is why Morrison needs to provide us Sydney siders with ice cream trucks dispensing free money. Mobile ATM’s. Morrison can take some happy snaps of himself driving one with both thumbs up.

    I expect an imminent announcement 🙂

  45. Rex:

    So in your opinion why is the Coalition 53-47 up in Qld ?

    My guess is that a backlash against Scomo and the Coalition is the cause of this substantial swing back to the Labor Party.

  46. “michael says:
    Monday, July 12, 2021 at 3:44 pm
    Seriously Rudd and Turnbull need to get a life. I think they must sit around all day polishing their egos.
    Anyone who thinks Rudd’s influence over Pfizer to speed up delivery can’t see the forest because of the trees.”

    Greg Hunt, is it you?

    It’s a piling up of embarrassments upon embarrassments for ScuMo and his Gang, and now Rudd is showing ScuMo the true meaning of “leadership”…

    Failed response to Covid, Failed Vaccination response…. and “gold standard” Gladys is drowning in a pool of infections…. No wonder the opinion polls are heading South for ScuMo and his Gang…. fast!

  47. Chuckle

    marquelawyers
    @marquelawyers
    ·
    22m
    Today’s news, summarised: the Scott government has caught Kevin Rudd out, proving that he said he’d done exactly what he did do.

  48. ItzaDream @ #442 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 3:19 pm

    The extent of Morrison’s Pfizer connections:

    a) “I’ve spoken to the head of Pfizer in Australia”.

    b) Scott Morrison also says he met with a senior Pfizer executive when he was in Europe for meetings after the G7 summit.

    (guardian)

    And? What was the result of those meetings? Obviously sfa until Kevin Rudd came along.

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