The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
C@t I think we can say now the result of those meetings was a speed up of Pfizer delivery regardless of Rudd’s involvement.
Firefox2 says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 12:46 pm
…. Federal Labor…… aren’t much chop…..
Yokelised Green running interference for the LNP. Nothing new in the campaign to re-elect the Reactionary Parties.
lizzie @ #500 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 4:30 pm
Labor finally seems to be awakening from its torpor 🙁
It looks like that this federal election will be defined by a degree of mirroring of State-vote and Federal-vote (helped by Covid). That’s why ScuMo can’t lose NSW. If the mirroring works everywhere except in NSW, then it won’t be just a “defeat” for the Coalition, rather, it’s gonna be Annihilation.
Well…. you could say that, but I wouldn’t, David.
Morrison has been out and about fronting the media today. Well, Sky News anyway.
Shorten
“(Unlike disability and aged care workers), I bet Morrison didn’t take time off without pay to get his jab.”
The NSW Rum Corps, must have dragged him out from under his bed.
They’ve done it before …
Oh god, it’s Canavan today.
guytaur says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 3:52 pm
Labor people claiming the Greens hate Labor is a problem.
The truth is the Greens absolutely despise Labor. Consider (if nothing else) the anti-Labor diatribes posted by Quoll and the dreary Labor-phobic sanctimony on endless replay by Firefox.
The Greens are an anti-Labor party. They campaign against Labor 24/7. This is most deliberately done. They campaign at every level from municipal elections upwards to disable Labor. The principal beneficiaries of this strategy are the Reactionaries. This is intentional.
And sure enough he’s comparing Covid to the flu.
FS
I have taken your point. So am not responding to Briefly’s latest.
Fulvio I’m basing my opinion on what Pfizer has said and Rudd’s reputation for self glorification.
Pfizer was very direct in rejecting any third-party influence in their decision.
Rudd has a long history of leaking information for self promotion.
I don’t have any hesitation in criticizing our government for mistakes made in the vaccination program but don’t believe for a minute that Pfizer suddenly decided to speed up supply seven days after Rudd zoom meeting.
davidwh @ #502 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 4:00 pm
“We”? It is certainly what Hunt and Morrison are saying. Are you suggesting they are the Royal “we”?
Pfizer have merely pointed out that Rudd had no role in contractual agreements – which you would hope to be the case and what you would expect them to say. But we know that Rudd met with the top dog. Right? And it then transpired that vaccines were brought forward. You can assume, if you choose, that the clincher was Morrison having a brief chat with someone over a canape. Or Hunt talking to a local rep.
Well done, Guytaur.
Seriously, I mean it.
Correlation does not imply causation, david!
FS
Thanks.
I have a former colleague who went on to work for a labor government and was a party member.
Switched to greens.
Only time I have ever seen him comment on social media on energy policy is to criticise labor.
Mind you, after some closer exposure to green internal politics in their ill-fated WA campaign this year he has expressed some misgivings about them.
Where have they said this?
From what I have seen they said Rudd wasnt involved in the contractual agreements. Is there more to their press release?
Hunt claims Pfizers statement is categorical. I would disagree and point out that Hunt has good personal reasons for downplaying any role Rudd may have had. So you need to weigh that up with Rudds character flaws when coming to a judgement on this.
@ByClare tweets
#BREAKING The Australian Technical Advisory Group (ATAGI) will meet on Monday afternoon to reconsider the previous advice recommending the AstraZeneca vaccine was only preferred for people aged 60 and over. Changing risk profile of contracting Covid-19 the trigger @dailytelegraph
Michael@3.44pm
“Anyone who thinks Rudd’s influence over Pfizer to speed up delivery can’t see the forest because of the trees.”
Some are pissing on a tree to put out a bushfire!
davidwh
“ Pfizer was very direct in rejecting any third-party influence in their decision.”
Where abouts exactly do they say “influence their decision”
There’s seems to be a consistent pattern of conservatives taking everyone else for mugs.. Scott-in- hiding is a congenital bullshit artist..
How uninformed is Canavan?
From the Guardian blog
Nationals Senator Matt Canavan is also critical of the advertisement, but, erm, for slightly different reasons. Canavan says the ad is “not realistic” because “we know that Covid doesn’t affect young people that much more than the flu”.
We don’t run ads around the flu like this. I mean, there are people who are impacted obviously by this virus, as other viruses, but I think it’s way over the top. It’s not connected back to the real facts on the ground. Any kind of scare campaign that’s not connected to the facts ultimately will fail.
——
Currently in NSW there are 14 people under the age of 35 are in hospital with Covid including two people in ICU.
I used to think Briefly was being hysterical about the greens but the more i look at them the more i see where Briefly has been coming from because many times the Greens will be more critical of the ALP than they are of the Liberals or they will loop the ALP into their criticism of the Liberals.
The problem with the Libs is that they draw their talent from second rate lawyers or has-been PR types
laughtong
Canavan is a peasant!
I would also add that the rest of the world seems to have a far higher regard for Rudd than we do here.
The opposite would be the case for Morrison. Although I reckon we are catching on.
“Now don’t tell me Labor hasn’t been involved in doing those things!”
No one is.
What’s your name today?
All the Morrison government had to do was acknowledge the contribution of Rudd in a spirit of bipartisanship. Take the politics out of it and simply say that in such a emergency any and all positive help is appreciated. The whole story would then be over in a day and both Morrison and Rudd would get a bit of positive PR. Sadly for Morrison he could not bring himself to share any perceived “ glory”.
Rudd will not let this go and it will now probably extend over coming days into a shitshow of he said you said and perhaps even the bubbling to the surface of a few facts the government may find uncomfortable. We shall see.
Whatever the final outcome the whole thing “ did not need to come to this. “
Simon Katich @ #530 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 2:53 pm
Rudd is obviously a very smart person and is interesting to hear talk on a variety of issues.
He does seem to have issues managing people, but that’s an entirely different skill set.
The narcissm comments are an own goal. Especially as it’s a Murdoch line.
The Biden administration has a particular view of Fox News The New York Post etc.
Looking at the polling breakdowns we have government of the old, for the old, by the getting old. It’s the same in the UK where the Tories are terrified of offending the nearly retired and pensioners. Luckily in Oz we have compulsory and preferential voting to moderate the results. If the UK had our system the Tories would be flat out winning any election.
If Morrison and his cronies are Christians then the moon is made of cheese and I’m happy to be an infidel.
Sceptic @ #524 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 4:50 pm
And, in hiding but still pulling the strings and backgrounding to the media.
Another take on this is perhaps Rudd knew exactly how Morrison would respond and it is unfolding exactly as he wants it to play out.
Morrison is not the only cunning shit house rat running around.
Rossmcg @ #520 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 4:46 pm
He’ll always be welcome back into the Labor fold. Along with all the other Greens refugees. 🙂
“Australia’s Grandfather Forced To Step Up And Raise Us After Dad Skips Town During Pandemic”
The Beetoota Advocate July 12th says it all really.
Goll @ #530 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 4:56 pm
🙂
BK,
The Joyce Nats are coming for Morrison and I expect we’ll see more of their destabilising and disloyalty in the coming weeks.
So Morrison has known about Rudd’s involvement for a while….he sure didnt game plan things very well for a ‘marketing genius”…..
As someone said, all he had to do is say Mr Rudd made some useful phone calls, and then the Govt put in the hard yards to secure the extra doses.
Doyley,
Rudd’s the worst type of person to be involved in a political fight against.
He has nothing to lose!
That Particular Person has also done a few laps of the diplomatic circuit with its meets, and greets, and howdy do talks, with the experiences of and lessons in the gentle arts, not to mention a few retirement feathers in his cap –
(Rudd retired from parliament following the election. In February 2014, he was named Senior Fellow at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, where he leads research on the future of China–United States relations. In September 2014, he became Distinguished Fellow-in-Residence at the Paulson Institute within the University of Chicago. He is also Chair of the Independent Commission on Multilateralism, Chair of Sanitation and Water for All, and Chairman of the Board at the International Peace Institute. In January 2021, he was appointed the 8th President and CEO of the Asia Society)
– unlike the bully in chief who needed a chaperone to meet the President of the United States.
(Plus he’s a mate of Jordan Shanks)
Greensborough Growler @ #543 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 5:16 pm
And he’s determined to win.
Canavan’s treading on dangerous ground here if the results of the last four state elections are any indication.
The majority of Australians take Covid seriously. They support restrictions. They support border closures. They support vaccines. They may not like lockdowns, but they accept them as neccesary.
The Coalition seem to be repeatedly failing to learn a very simple lesson: people generally don’t want to die.
Poor little Hunt, he so much wants to be the hero of every episode of “I saved Australia from Covid”, but the producers keep introducing new characters. 😆
The Joyce Nats are coming for Morrison and I expect we’ll see more of their destabilising and disloyalty in the coming weeks.
______________
GG
We can but hope.
Itza,
Imagine if the Libs had been forward thinking enough to assist Rudd into an international sinecure like head of the United Nations?
He wouldn’t be rat fucking them right now.
Same with Turnbull. Appointed to a position in the NSW Government which was subsequently undermined and overturned.
The best thing to do with ex-PMs is give them a busy job to keep them occupied and out of the way.