Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

Comments Page 13 of 62
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  1. Recon says:
    Monday, July 12, 2021 at 6:36 pm
    So many Ex-PM’s living free and easy on the public tit. What a country!
    ___________________________________________
    All that free oxygen being greedily consumed!

  2. Ex PMs doing more than the current PM for Australia how embarrassing.
    At least Scotty popped up today out of witness protection on sky news for a tummy rub I guess.

  3. I propose that Mark Latham’s greatest contribution to Australia was forcing Howard to end the previous gravy train system. That really was atrocious and fortunately at an end once the current crop wash through the system.

  4. One thing I reckon we will see in NSW when this outbreak is done and dusted is that the people will become more like those in other States have long been. Any pollie or person who is perceived to endanger the virus free status of the State or be seen to push actions that risk it will find themselves tarred and feathered in the court of public opinion. Even 2GB and the Telecrap may not be able to hold back that change.

  5. I’ve just noticed that the gasping woman ad finishes with

    *book* your vaccine (my emphasis)

    Unable to say *get vaccinated now*, they rifled through of the Weasel Word Handbook.

  6. I was pleased that John Anderson failed to return to politics recently. After having lost his private sector sinecure he thought he could return to the public trough. Seems not to be. Perhaps work for the dole?

  7. ItzaDream

    I’ve just noticed that the gasping woman ad finishes with

    *book* your vaccine (my emphasis)

    Nooooo…lying basterds. I thought it was to scare the young ones indoors.

  8. poroti @ #607 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 6:49 pm

    One thing I reckon we will see in NSW when this outbreak is done and dusted is that the people will become more like those in other States have long been. Any pollie or person who is perceived to endanger the virus free status of the State or be seen to push actions that risk it will find themselves tarred and feathered in the court of public opinion. Even 2GB and the Telecrap may not be able to hold back that change.

    That was behind my comment that I thought those like Perrottet and Hazzard pushing for living with the virus, business knows best, have been muffled, to the advantage of Gladys and moderates.

  9. They’ve got a bit of history re racism…

    Francis Awaritefe
    @FrancisAwartefe
    ·
    2h
    Is there any surprise, that in an all white Australian newsroom- in this febrile climate – this vile headline can be posted on Twitter, then quietly deleted, after a surge of complaints, without an apology or any accountability?

    This is not about individuals- racism is systemic.

  10. Scott Morrison and federal health minister Greg Hunt have not denied claims that they failed to press Australia’s case for more vaccine doses directly with Pfizer’s global chief, after revelations that Kevin Rudd spoke to the pharmaceutical company chief last month.

    But Hunt said on Monday he talked at least weekly to the chief of Pfizer’s Australian operations, and denied that the intervention by former prime minister Rudd, whose name he refused to say, had had any effect on the pace of supply.

    Morrison, during an interview with Sky News on Monday, also did not deny he had not contacted the global chief of Pfizer. “I’ve spoken to the head of Pfizer in Australia,” the prime minister replied.

    Only 35minutes till Laura unleashes … is there an LNP member prepared to face up.. Matt Canavan? perhaps

  11. Lars,

    You did ask I continue.

    Nah, none of those are on my plate these days.

    Sorry to disappoint you.

    What about you?

  12. ItzaDream @ #612 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 6:55 pm

    poroti @ #607 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 6:49 pm

    One thing I reckon we will see in NSW when this outbreak is done and dusted is that the people will become more like those in other States have long been. Any pollie or person who is perceived to endanger the virus free status of the State or be seen to push actions that risk it will find themselves tarred and feathered in the court of public opinion. Even 2GB and the Telecrap may not be able to hold back that change.

    That was behind my comment that I thought those like Perrottet and Hazzard pushing for living with the virus, business knows best, have been muffled, to the advantage of Gladys and moderates.

    The next NSW poll will determine Gladys future as Premier.

    If the ‘let it rip’ folk get a sniff then Gladys is in trouble.

  13. mikehilliard at 6:36 pm

    Young woman on the Drum RE the ad.

    “we’re already scared, we just want to be vaccinated”

    Of all the ad campaigns I’ve seen reported as successful/popular in their respective countries none have gone for ‘scare the crap out of’ . Perhaps it is a reflection of the influence of holy rollers at our top level. Get the peasants to behave with a ‘scare the crap out of’ would be natural to them. The ol’ ‘Burning in hellfire for eternity’ and for Scotty and Robert being crossed off the Rapture passenger list 🙂

  14. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, July 12, 2021 at 6:57 pm
    Lars,

    You did ask I continue.

    Nah, none of those are on my plate these days.

    Sorry to disappoint you.

    What about you?
    _____________________________
    What can i say? Unlike you my appetites are modest!

  15. I listened in again to 2GB this morning expecting the worst but I have to say Fordham and Hadley were quite measured most of the time.

  16. Asha Leu hit the nail on the head earlier:

    In general, we have a bad habit in this country of reducing elections to just one or two issues. The GST Election, the Tampa election, the Workchoices election. 2019 is already shaping up to be remembered as the Franking Credits Election (or the Adani Convoy Election.) The reality is usually a lot more messy.

    This is accurate. We like to believe in epic stories and that there was a single event which won or lost us the battle (I see this a lot amongst history and war discussion too) but the fact is that a side wins due to culminative factors. Usually the election-losing “gaffe” is a cap on what was already a building narrative; a summary of what was wrong with that side’s case. Take the “birthday cake” gaffe. That wasn’t what ended Hewson. It just encapsulated how confusing, technocratic and ultimately unnecessary his proposed radical economic reforms were already perceived as being (i.e. his presentation of being the emergency economic doctor the country ordered was failing.)

    We can contrast this to Abbott’s many gaffes pre-2013 or even those of Biden last year, which came across more as nitpicking than damaging – because they weren’t feeding a growing negative perception; people were on-board with what they were selling and didn’t care. Had either been struggling with the voters and their perception, I’d say those gaffes would have stuck harder.

  17. Well almost another 1000 references to ‘teh Greens’ just today it seems, but perhaps not quite enough ‘woke to the woke’ posts to keep up the PB standards.

    After all these years of trying, only a few more years of saying the same wrong things over and over again and something should really change, surely.

    Follow-up podcast to the recent Juicemedia gas led Sh!tf*ckery Honest government ad
    How We Make Everything Good Sh!t

    An interview with Lock the Gate and a former BoM meteorologist on the manipulation of BoM science, public statements and publishing of research with regard to climate change and global heating.

    What’s happening with the Gasled Sh!tF*ckery? | Lock the Gate
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtkUZMo2y_w

    No doubt it will be a bit challenging to some of the PB cabal, because it’s long and involves an extended description and lots of background and facts around proposed gas projects and fracking in every Australian state, except for SA and Tasmania apparently.

    You know the bipartisan Gas-led recovery Australia and the world doesn’t need.

    Also challenging to the PB cabal because all these gas projects and plans for extensive fracking and more fossil fuels are totally bipartisan between federal and state governments of both the LNP and Labor parties, so directly contradictory to the general PB BS line that Labor is somehow better on fossil fuels and climate.

    The biggest project of them all in WA is being pushed by Woodside, Australia’s biggest gas miner and platinum corporate member of both the Liberal and Labor parties, for a relatively cheap $110,000 / yr they’re no doubt thinking they can get help potentially getting their hands on billions of dollars of revenue from gas in WA. Would either the Labor or Lib party refuse such sponsors their wish?

    Just seems to show how cheaply both the major parties have been when it comes to selling out the principles they sometimes claim to hold, to corporate fossil fuel interests.

    State Capture: top corporations identified as members of both Liberal and Labor parties
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/two-party-state-top-corporations-lobbyists-revealed-members-of-liberal-and-labor-parties/

    The WA Woodside project alone would exceed Australia’s whole greenhouse gas budget of the Paris agreement by multiple times. Climate Analytics have done a whole analysis of this proposed carbon bomb

    Western Australia’s gas gamble
    https://climateanalytics.org/briefings/western-australias-gas-gamble/

    Carbon pollution from Western Australia’s current and proposed natural gas projects would be over four times higher than what Australia’s energy system can emit under the Paris Agreement. Rather than risk stranded assets by investing in gas, it would be much smarter for WA to take advantage of its vast renewable energy resources. This briefing summarises the findings of our recent report Western Australia’s Gas Gamble: Implications of exploiting Canning Basin and other unconventional gas resources for achieving climate targets.

  18. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, July 12, 2021 at 7:04 pm

    The Derro’s breakfast would be your favourite then.

    A pee, a smoke and a quick look around.
    __________
    That’s what people in Melbourne’s East call a Greensborough Breakfast 🙂

  19. I agree Wat. I can’t see the current government winning the next election due to the combined effect of ongoing poor decisions.

  20. ItzaDream
    Muffled out of self preservation 🙂 The poor chaps, to their surprise, found that the world outside their bubble would generally like to shove that opinion where the sun don’t shine. It must have been a shock as “everyone I speak with” within their social bubble thought it wonderful .

  21. Frewen seems a reasonable man. What he can’t do though is respond to questions that are clearly political. This morning’s exchange between him and Kelly (RN) highlighted this. Asked his opinion of Berrejyklian’s half-hearted, delayed lockdown, he responded (wwtte) that the NSW government is sovereign, clearly uncomfortable that Fran attempted to draw him into the political web. Frewen, however, is the Morrison Government’s spokesperson for the botched vaccine rollout; as such, he better get used to journalists asking impertinent questions, his appointment more evidence of how Morrison’s attempting to politicise the ADF, the CDF, Campbell, cowered after Dutton gave him a dressing down over the morning teas.

  22. poroti

    Of all the ad campaigns I’ve seen reported as successful/popular in their respective countries none have gone for ‘scare the crap out of’ .

    I think we’re now resolved to the fact that if the current crop can get it wrong, they will.

  23. Mavis

    What he can’t do though is respond to questions that are clearly political.

    Just how Scrott likes it. Put someone out in front who cannot answer such questions. How good a ‘bullet proof’ and ‘stab proof’ vest for Scotty is that !!!

  24. Bill Shorten calls the vaccine rollout a ‘shit show’ and refers to Sctote as ‘Scotty from Marketting’…..and is rewarded with a sweet little cameo on the ABC main TV news bulletin.
    That’s how it’s done.

  25. In Victoria, three new cases of Covid-19 emerged after a removalist from NSW and two members of a family who returned from Sydney last week tested positive. Late on Monday Victoria Health said a fourth person, a colleague of the removalist, had also tested positive. The health department said in a statement that interviews with the removalists were proving to be “complex and challenging”.

    Gotta love bureaucratese… Does that mean they don’t speak English and/or are uncooperative?
    “Please explain.”

  26. Mundo – whats going on in Tassie Labor?

    A Third Term for Rebecca White? What about that feller you were talking about?

  27. davidwh
    Go with Wat Tylers suggestion….

    Wat Tyler at 7:14 pm
    Go the full poutine, davidwh.

    Several million Québécois can’t be wrong .Feel those arteries clogging as you eat 😆

  28. There tends to come a point where negative opinions of a leader or a government reaches critical mass, and an electorate that was previously unconcerned with each stuff-up and scandal and gaffe suddenly begins noticing. At this point, without some huge narrative-changing event, whatever happens next just tightens the grip on the baseball bats.

    It happened to Keating. It happened to Gillard. It happened to Abbott. Rudd experienced the early stages in 2010, but was rolled before it really kicked into gear.

    My (ever unreliable) gut tells me Morrison might be at or even past that tipping point. I suppose we’ll find out soon enough.

  29. poroti says:
    Monday, July 12, 2021 at 7:19 pm
    davidwh
    Go with

    Wat Tylersays:
    Monday, July 12, 2021 at 7:14 pm
    Go the full poutine, davidwh.
    Several million Québécois can’t be wrong .Feel those arteries clogging as you eat
    ____________________________
    It’s cruel to tempt GG with photos like these!

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