The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
O’Brien: Melbourne used to be number one of the world’s most livable cities. It’s now done to number eight, blaming Andrews. I’m not sure how long O’Brien will survive. Surely Guy would do a better job, notwithstanding the Madafferi controversy, and the Good Friday pairing incident(?).
In no news to me, Probyn said the Sydney lockdown is expected to continue “well into next month”.
Republican voters may ‘Darwin Award’ themselves into political ‘extinction’ 😆
.
.
The survey finds that 86 percent of Democrats have received at least one shot of a vaccine, compared with 45 percent of Republicans. Another 7 percent of Democrats say they are likely to do so, compared with 4 percent of Republicans.
But while 6 percent of Democrats say they aren’t likely to get vaccinated, 47 percent of Republicans fall into that camp, with 38 percent of Republicans overall saying they will definitely not get shots against the virus.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/post-abc-poll-biden/2021/07/03/54e95b6e-db43-11eb-8fb8-aea56b785b00_story.html
The world’s ‘most liveable city’ title isn’t a measure of the things most of us actually care about …..
https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-most-liveable-city-title-isnt-a-measure-of-the-things-most-of-us-actually-care-about-101525
Lars Von Trier @ #636 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 7:19 pm
Dunno…Dean Winter…didn’t put his hand up. Suspect he’ll wait for Rebecca to achieve her trifecta then have a go. Labor has a long way to come back.
Wait, White is trying to have another go?! I mean, I’m all for political comebacks but give people time to miss you.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/07/12/newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-april-to-june/comment-page-12/#comment-3650174
… the fed gov has a replacement for the testing and tracing app. At long last!
Tonight at 09:30 PM a medical satellite is flying over Australia to take everyone’s temperature. (Pity it won’t fill out your census …)
Please stand naked outside your door and wave your passport for identification purposes, at least with your arm up at a nazi-salut angle …
🙁
Fxyzbook apparently …
Well played 7:30. Starting with modelling for audience waiting for the did Rudd phone Pfizer saga.
Itza,
No point starting the count before the infection rate starts to reduce.
Can’t see that happening till they get serious about lockdown and actually police it,
That video fro Coogee tells you that NSW is in bravado denial mode.
I weep for them.
mundo
What did Labor do to ‘stuff up’ Tasmania ?
When I was at Uni I was partial to some chips with Bolognese sauce.
Greensborough Growler @ #659 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 7:33 pm
the graphs on 7.30 are shockers
Chips with mayo is also a great combo
To be fair to Tas Labor, White is the only real option they have right now. Dean Winter may be a rising star, but he’s only just been elected to the assembly. Even Bob Hawke had to wait a few years before becoming leader.
@MrKRudd tweets
Morrison may be garbage at vaccine policy but, wow, are his spin-doctors effective on Murdoch columnist @vanOnselenP. Bottom line: My comments are 100% consistent with Pfizer. Morrison should be red-faced for never calling Pfizer’s CEO; meanwhile, Israel’s PM had 17 calls.
@10NewsFirst tweets
Amid confusion, Pfizer and the Federal Government have denied suggestions that Kevin Rudd played any role in accelerating the vaccine roll-out in Australia. | @vanOnselenP
_______________
Tweets contain video
Any prediction on when Sydney’s lockdown will end is really about ‘predict when Sydney’s lockdown will start, and then add 3 months’.
At this rate, the mild lockdown isn’t enough to get back down to COVID elimination or single digits per day. It’ll just buy time for the vaccine rollout in aged care to progress a bit further.
It sounds like tomorrow they’re tightening it a bit with forcing non essential retail to close, but I suspect it’ll still not be enough. The inconsistent and incoherent messaging has really screwed up compliance – you’ve got to set restrictions even tighter, knowing that people will break them
Itza,
Two factors not represented are that the Delta virus is far more infective and that NSW definition of close contacts is “less robust” than Victoria.
It’s a disaster and a lot of people are going to be hurt.
While there were some notable stuff-ups on the campaign trail, I don’t know how much blame for the results of the last Tas election can really be placed on either Rebecca White or the Tasmanian ALP. Gutwein had probably already won before he even visited the governer.
Yeah true, and that ship does need steadying. And I think maybe, to answer my own earlier point, recent events may have already made people miss her.
I don’t know if I am confident she will last until the next election though. I genuinely hope so (and that she wins), if just because I actually like her and think she’d be a good Premier. But what I want and what is reality are often two very different things.
Growing up I distinctly remember the local shop staffed by two families of Greek Fish and Chip operatives. All members of both families wore spotless white lab coats and conducted themselves in the most professional manner possible. I have never seen a cooking facility so spotlessly clean.
Recon, I bet they changed the fat every day too and the chips were perfect. I love when they take extra care for their food.
GG
Itza,
Two factors not represented are that the Delta virus is far more infective and that NSW definition of close contacts is “less robust” than Victoria.
It’s a disaster and a lot of people are going to be hurt.
Wasn’t the implication that it may not be as bad due to NSW reacting earlier in partial then more restrictive ( lockdown ) lockdown than Vic?
”But while 6 percent of Democrats say they aren’t likely to get vaccinated, 47 percent of Republicans fall into that camp, with 38 percent of Republicans overall saying they will definitely not get shots against the virus.”
Has anyone done research into the average IQs of Democrats and Republicans?
Asha, yeah White was dealt an impossible hand at the election. The thing is the leader is where the buck still stops and that if your face is associated with repetitive failure, it starts to make the perception of you as a part of the problem (regardless of how unfair that may be.)
But, as I stated above, I genuinely hope she’s not just a caretaker and gets a real go at the next election (and wins.)
FDotM comes up with a sure fire plan to have people rushing to get vaccinated.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/12/why-dont-we-tell-the-truth-about-vaccination-in-ads-quite-a-shock-but-ive-heard-it-can-work
The curve! The curve!
Where the pvo wow at Lt 730!!!!!
Now this is a scandal
Looks.. like LT fired all shots in her article.. nothing saved for 7.30 🙁
Dan Andrews@DanielAndrewsMP
This morning hundreds of Azzurri fans watched the Euro final on Lygon Street from a projector balanced on an esky on top of a table.
I thought we could light up something else tonight to celebrate their win. Forza Italia.
IQ tests aren’t that great a measure of intelligence (I say that as somebody who got somewhere in the 150s last time I was tested) and historically have had a bad racial and class bias (this is especially an important factor when one of the two entities being compared are known for higher racial diversity and working class membership.)
The curve! The curve!
Didn’t we used to have that flattened?
Dan Andrews@DanielAndrewsMP
This morning hundreds of Azzurri fans watched the Euro final on Lygon Street from a projector balanced on an esky on top of a table.
I thought we could light up something else tonight to celebrate their win. Forza Italia.
______________
I’m thinking he might have to do a bit more than that to get the Italian cafe owners back on side!
Sceptic @ #672 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 7:51 pm
Yes, much earlier, initially softer, gradually tightening, still not at the level of Victoria’s stage 4, but with different virus behaviour playing out.
@noplaceforsheep tweets
It’s confirmed. Morrison could have ordered sufficient vaccine last year & he didn’t. Ex Pfizer boss again tonight describes this decision as “unconscionable” #7.30
Steve:
Killing off your own supporters is certainly a unique electoral tactic!
Wat Tyler:
Oh, absolutely.
La Tingle played hard, done fine.
A scoop of momentous proportions for her. She has shown up Leigh “Celebrity Journo” Sales for the lightweight she is.
While Sales is getting herself plastered all over the cover of New Idea, bragging about her latest diet, or how cruel people are on Twitter, Tingle has got down and dirty, crossing her T’s and dotting her I’s, all while watching her P’s and Q’s.
Give Laura 2 weeks in the chair and she makes 7.30 relevant again.
Hear hear BB!
Here we go again.
Thanks for nothing Gladys.
And of course, craigieburn features again. Wtf
See new Tweets
Richard Willingham
@rwillingham
State Politics
·
14m
Two new Melbourne exposure sites have been listed in Craigieburn and Broadmeadows. They are for Saturday and Sunday after the removalists left Vic…
@abcmelbourne
https://coronavirus.vic.gov.au/exposure-sites
I just would like to say thank you posters for letting me know that Laura Tingle was hosting 730pm tonight. A must watch. I shall continue until the regular host returns.
Laura Tingle has been the best journo across all media platforms for a few years now.
Long may she reign!
BB
And a hear hear from me
Asha Leu:It happened to Keating. It happened to Gillard. It happened to Abbott. Rudd experienced the early stages in 2010, but was rolled before it really kicked into gear.
My (ever unreliable) gut tells me Morrison might be at or even past that tipping point. I suppose we’ll find out soon enough.
—————-
It would be nice to think so, but if you look at Sco Mo’s favourability ratings – see WB’s summary for the current Newspoll quarterlies at the top of this thread – they’re down, but not disastrously so, and well into positive territory even in Victoria- inconceivable though that seems. ScoMo is still way ahead on PPM as well. The trend may be our friend, and the whole miserable shitshow, to channel Bill Shorten, might collapse more quickly than we think. But I don’t sense a powerful voters with baseball bats sentiment at the moment.
Julia Banks ain’t letting this Wallpaper Wally barb go easily, tweeting this just now…
Is #WallpaperGuy ‘controlling the narrative’ from Lib women MPs for response to #PowerPlay ?
K.Allen: not my experience/ disappointing
S. Henderson:not my experience/ manipulated by ALP
A.Stoker: not my experience/pathetic, bizarre, cheap headline ♀️
#WallpaperWomen #auspol
Jeroen –
We’ll be joining NSW in lockdown very shortly.
The Tasmanian ALP caucus is so small – the whole Lower House itself has only 25 members- it’s hardly surprising given that at a minimum she knows how to do the job, that Rebecca White is favoured to return to the leadership. Not like there’s a deep talent pool.
Turnbull is having the time of his life taking revenge on Newsltd , Liberal party and Morrison and his cronies who did the dirty on Turnbull
Max,
Popularity means bugger all.
Morrison will get tipped if the hard Libs think he won’t win.
sprocket_ says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 8:15 pm
Julia Banks ain’t letting this Wallpaper Wally barb go easily, tweeting this just now…
Is #WallpaperGuy ‘controlling the narrative’ from Lib women MPs for response to #PowerPlay ?
K.Allen: not my experience/ disappointing
S. Henderson:not my experience/ manipulated by ALP
A.Stoker: not my experience/pathetic, bizarre, cheap headline ♀️
#WallpaperWomen #auspol
________________________
Nor would it seem are you.
The book sales must be astronomical, surely?
“COVID-positive residents of a 29-unit apartment block in Bondi have been moved to Special Health Accommodation after eight cases were recorded across five households.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/risk-has-changed-dramatically-all-of-south-west-should-consider-shot-20210712-p58901.html
NSWCis looking at Vic Apartment outbreaks