The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
We’ll be joining NSW in lockdown very shortly
—————
Jeez I hope not Rex. At least if we do I’m confident that the Vic Government will be right on it rather than mucking around with Claytons’ lockdowns.
Re Tasmanian Labor: I’m not sure where the idea of Dean Winter as the future Messiah comes from. He’s an ok guy, but he’ s not especially charismatic and I can’t see him leading the party to victory any time soon.
Winter is hated by the majority of party members and affiliated unions (who are inclined towards the O’Bryne Left faction): 1) for being pre-selected as a result of Federal intervention; 2) for defeating Alison Standen in Franklin (the prospect of which was the reason for the local Left doing all they could to make sure he wasn’t pre-selected in the first place); and 3) for potentially benefiting from the demise of the election candidacy of Tas Labor President Ben McGregor and then the party leadership of David O’Byrne: both as a result of allegations of sexual harassment.
Of course, it is the nature of the Tasmanian electorate that the antagonism of the party machine towards Winter has made him extremely electable. Hence the very good result he had in Franklin.
But success as a party maverick doesn’t necessarily equate to success as a party leader. And the industrial Left seem to be ever-increasingly dominant within the local party. They will tolerate a leader from the soft left such as Bec White. But I think they’d need a lot of persuading to go with a right-wing enemy like Winter. And, as I said before, he isn’t exactly Bob Hawke or Barrack Obama in the charisma stakes. (Not that we get a lot of Tasmanian politicians of that calibre: Jim Bacon, who came from the Right faction, was probably the most charismatic we’ve ever had. But I’ve got to say: “Dean, you’re no Jim Bacon.”)
Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 8:18 pm
Max,
Popularity means bugger all.
Morrison will get tipped if the hard Libs think he won’t win
—–
Turnbull is the perfect example
Lots of people even on this site, claiming Turnbull was too popular and the liberal party would not replace him before the 2019 federal election .
I guess a question I have for the Tasmanian politics people is why Shane Broad didn’t put his hand up. Wasn’t he the runner-up to O’Byrne? Or does he just lack factional support and was acting as more a stalking horse?
Forgive the ignorance. I know very little about the politics of your wonderful island.
Re Rudd and Pfizer:
It’s far from unusual for former Prime Ministers and senior ministers (particularly former Treasures and Ministers for Foreign Affairs) to be asked by Australian business leaders, university vice-chancellors and the like to make representations on their behalf to foreign governments, leaders of multinational corporations, international organisations & etc.. These representations can be seen as formalities to a certain extent: comparable to the diplomatic “calls” regularly made by ambassadors. The purpose of them is to break the ice in negotiations and boost goodwill. No serious decisions are going to be taken in such meetings.
Traditionally, these meetings are private and discreet, and the expectation is that those making representations would never make any public statements about their roles in such discussions.
Arguably, leaking information about such a meeting represents a breach of protocol, and is certainly very poor form. But these things happen…
meher baba says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 8:24 pm
________________________
Winter seems to have an impressive CV – and is clearly not an apparatchik.
Don’t know about the charisma – I’ll take your assessment on that score.
But history shows many succesful Labor leaders were hated by the machine before they took over – Surely Peter Beattie, John Cain Jnr, Hawke and Whitlam all fit into that category?
Ultimately if you want to win – having a winner as leader helps?
OK, so have watched One-On-One tonight where Aweng Chuol has been interviewed.
She is south Sudanese, came here at age 6 or 7, was discovered while working at McDonald’s, and is now an international supermodel. A wonderful, intelligent, vivacious young person.
She identifies as both “Trans” and “Queer”.
Seeing as “T” and “Q” form part of “LGBTQI”… what do the terms “Trans” and “Queer” mean, and are they synonymous?
Wat Tyler: “I guess a question I have for the Tasmanian politics people is why Shane Broad didn’t put his hand up. Wasn’t he the runner-up to O’Byrne? Or does he just lack factional support and was acting as more a stalking horse?Forgive the ign orance. I know very little about the politics of your wonderful island.”
He didn’t have the numbers. Not only is he from the wrong faction, but he is also not a particularly impressive performer.
The only way a Right faction member ever gets to become party leader in Tassie is if they are self-evidently a vote-winner: eg, Bacon. If Winter can prove himself to be such a thing, then he might have a show. Otherwise, the party leaders are always going to be drawn either from the hard, industrial left (eg, O’Byrne) or the soft left (eg, White).
Dandy Murray @ #625 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 7:05 pm
I blame you, Dandy Murray!
I sent my son the Ween doing Billy Joel clip you put up last week and titled the email, ‘Weeny Joel’. Great! my son said, that’s what I’m going to call my son now! 😆
LVT: “Ultimately if you want to win – having a winner as leader helps?”
I agree. It’s now up to Winter to show what he can do as a parliamentarian. As the mayor of the municipality in which I happen to live, he certainly showed himself to be very competent. I needed to engage with him personally on a couple of matters, and he was terrific. But this was backroom sort of stuff. I’ve seen him speak in public, and he’s certainly no great orator.
He’ll always get my vote (I voted for him as mayor and gave him my number 1 vote in the recent State election). But he needs to get votes from large numbers of people who are less politically engaged. And that requires for him to project himself towards them and to win their trust. And for that, he will need to find a bit of charisma and presence that I haven’t yet seen.
Dean Rosario
@DeanRosario
·
1h
730 report
– Covid modelling suggests
– Syd is still in a growth phase
– it will eventually decline but the decline will be very slow
– Brendan Crabb (Burnet Institute) says if NSW adopt tougher restrictions similar to Vic Stage 4 & will get to 5-6 cases/day in 4-6 weeks
Turnbull defeated Abbott because the belief was he was super popular and would easily win elections and, to satisfy the soft end of the conservative faction of the Coalition, his more liberal tendencies could be belled and, other than a few superficial gestures, won’t affect policy. It was a utilitarian pact.
The “Turnbull is popular” myth died at the 2016 election. People were resistant to the idea of him being challenged because they figured it would still be in the Coalition’s interest to stay on its same course rather than disrupt everything to play leadership games. However, after no sign of polling improvement, the s44 by-elections in July 2018 (remember those?) that were originally going to move all the pressure onto Shorten ended up not doing that and Turnbull’s constant pushing back against the conservatives, saw the end of the value of that pact and they (correctly) decided to cut him out and go for a more relatable conservative. You could be forgiven for thinking such a move was political suicide at the time and, admittedly if the ALP hadn’t whiffed it so badly, it might’ve been so.
Thank you for the answer, meher baba. That makes a lot more sense. 🙂
Wat Tyler:
The removal of Malcolm Turnbull was definitely an act of political suicide.
All Labor had to do at the time it happened was to abandon their strategy of targeting the so-called “big end of town” strategy of taxing the crap out of accumulated household wealth. But, as Sam Maiden explained in her badly-written but fascinating book on the 2019 election, Labor had signed itself up to so many politically humdrum, but extremely expensive policies in health, education and child care that they could not abandon the savings achieved through their proposed taxes on wealth.
I’m still astonished that a Labor party dominated and led by the Right faction would behave so self-destructively.
Next up: Laura Tingle reveals that Kevin Rudd developed the Pfizer vaccine himself but was too modest to take the credit.
The bleedin obvious comes to mind
Sky News Australia
@SkyNewsAust
·
1h
The Australian’s Dennis Shanahan says NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian “missed the opportunity” to go hard and go early, and because of the hesitancy there will now be “a longer and more expensive lockdown”.
Gladys Berejiklian ‘missed the opportunity’ to ‘go hard and go early’ to curb outbreak
The Australian’s Dennis Shanahan says NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian “missed the opportunity” to go hard and go early, and because of the hesitancy there will now be “a longer and more expensive…
skynews.com.au
China and US war drums.
These two articles, one from the ABC and one from the Global Times, are a study in contrasts:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-12/south-china-sea-uss-benfold-paracel-islands-dispute/100287046
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202107/1228421.shtml
“We’ll all be rooned”
Said the Hanrahan Covid graphs and unfortunately with the existing gambling strategies as set out by dear Glad, Ole Hanrahan may we’ll be proven right!
Next up, Morrison pretends he knows what he is doing.
My mind drifts back to that febrile heart-in-mouth year of 2007. Rudd opened his campaign to
bring down Howard by stating that he was going to mess with the PM’s mind.
One of his tactics was to give the appearance that he was the one in charge, leading debate, heralding
the future in contrast to a smug complacent incumbent. In 2007 it was the climate change summit that
he called, today it was his intervention with Pfizer. Seems like that chapter from the “defeat the Libs”
playbook still works, when the time is right. Scotty from Marketing got a dose of his own medicine.
The contrast between Rudd (seasoned internationalist with contacts in high places) – and Morrison (gauche
parochialist hiding in his office) – is stark.
So Denis Shananana , tell us how many of your fellow Mordor Media orcs wrote anything but “Glory to Gladys” and ‘Gold Standard NSW” articles during this period ? How many were writing articles that supported “go hard go early” ? How many were calling the ‘Mock Down’ what it was, a missed opportunity.
boerwarsays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 8:55 pm
As if the West hasn’t done to IRAQ, Syria, and a host of other 3rd world countries for resources.
p
Good post, IMO.
Just LOVING how Nath’s sock puppet “Michael” – now a sock puppet for “Recon” – has reappeared after being banned for… being a sock puppet (not to mention Nath reappearing)
William, they’re making a fool of you and of this site, publicly.
I believe “Queer” (genderqueer, non-binary gender) is a subset of “Trans” (transgender, gender diverse.)
https://aifs.gov.au/cfca/publications/lgbtiq-communities
Michaels post was funny BB, why not leave it at that ?
Michael’s post was obviously satire because modesty has never been a Rudd quality.
WTF ? Could someone jump the paywall and find out what this is about ? This is a headline in Rupe’s flagship paper. Surely they would not come out and say something like this ?
Edit. As you were, I’m a bit slow on the uptake. The second bit must be what the “mad world of social media” is saying.
.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/news-corp-media-more-nuanced-than-its-critics-admit/news-story/1e98fb3d99e4fb85725733d03d710fd2
BB,
WB is being played on a break and does not appear to have the will power to do anything about it.
michael says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 8:51 pm
Next up: Laura Tingle reveals that Kevin Rudd developed the Pfizer vaccine himself but was too modest to take the credit.
You come across as a bitter little man, about the same as Hunt came across on 7.30.
Mr X “threatens” to return to politics.
Greensborough Growler @ #731 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 9:08 pm
Perhaps you should both be thankful for that 🙂
Because this place is supposed to have SOME standards, Lars.
If “Nath” and his passel of lies, innuendos, phoney life stories and squalid trolling was banned for sock-puppeting as “Michael” before, why not now?
He’s out to make a fool of this site and William seems to be again suffering from the same Stockholm Syndrome as he was before.
It’s pathetic.
I have no connection with this ‘Michael’. There always was a few of them. I have learned my lesson. Don’t try to gaslight William with this argument that he’s being ‘made a fool of’, which you repeatedly do to try to get him to ban people. He’s smarter than you.
If Xenophon wants to come back and threaten the nominally third Liberal Senate seat in SA, he is more than welcome to.
And yes, I know there is a big monkey’s paw ready to curl its finger after I just typed that.
Lightning strikes in India kill 38 people in 24 hours, including 11 taking selfies
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-12/lightning-strikes-in-india-kill-38-people-in-24-hours-selfies/100287640
@proroti
The oz article is the usual pile of bile but this conclusion really sums it up
News critics such as former Labor prime minister Kevin Rudd and ex-treasurer Wayne Swan call the vaccination program Australia’s greatest ever public policy failure, have they really forgotten their own blunders on boat arrivals that killed 1200 people, and the pink batts disaster that killed four installers and burnt down houses?
What more can we say
BTW if you can install the Bypass Paywalls add-on so you can read this garbage without the hassle of paying for it
Says Nath/Michael/Recon/And-God-Knows-Who-Else, the biggest liar this place has ever seen.
Kick him out William. Try and salvage something.
All very well, but Recon was denying knowing who nath was not so long ago.
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 8:36 pm
meher baba says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 8:24 pm
________________________
Winter seems to have an impressive CV – and is clearly not an apparatchik.
Don’t know about the charisma – I’ll take your assessment on that score.
But history shows many succesful Labor leaders were hated by the machine before they took over – Surely Peter Beattie, John Cain Jnr, Hawke and Whitlam all fit into that category?
Ultimately if you want to win – having a winner as leader helps?
”
That is right. It is as if Labor politicians forgot how to win elections in Tasmania.
zoomster says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 9:19 pm
All very well, but Recon was denying knowing who nath was not so long ago.
______________
I don’t believe so. William knew anyway. He knows his most intelligent poster for God’s sake.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid
Thanks. I will consider it. I can jump a lot with ‘Incognito” but many I can’t.
Certainly if the Kevin Rudd obsessives keep referencing Kevin’s small role in the acquisition of some vaccine supplies, Dudley Morrison will move more swiftly toward his well deserved “rooned” reputation.
Talk about “a loaded dog”, a drover’s wife would feel it on the horizon as Morrison’s washing is hung to dry and we borrow XH’s “Poor Fellow My Country” while simultaneously cursing:”the weird mob” and pondering a “Sunday too far away”.
FFS, lock the bloody gate, before we all arrive together in the long paddock with the tremors from “a pub with no beer”.
The “emerald city” but a dream!
Sorry Gladys, looks like Rupes is backing Scotty.
@poroti
No problem, works of firefox a treat, well wort it
Anyway, I have a Papal dispensation now. So suffer in your jocks. 🙂
I wonder if this is another country in which the West is interfering to take back ‘democratic’ aka ‘Capitalist’.
“A Florida-based doctor, Christian Emmanuel Sanon, has become the third American arrested over the assassination of Haiti’s president, Jovenel Moïse.”
‘The doctor, Christian Emmanuel Sanon, 63, is the third Haitian-born suspect with U.S. ties to be arrested.’
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/07/11/world/jovenel-moise-assassinated
Trump Wins 2024 CPAC Straw Poll With 70 Percent:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PhfnSvgyNQ&ab_channel=MSNBC