The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
Every time I see a Murdoch paper, I’m mildly stunned at how inane and how emotive the headlines are. They aren’t even pretending to be objective any more.
Asha Leu says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 9:34 pm
Every time I see a Murdoch paper, I’m mildly stunned at how inane and how emotive the headlines are. They aren’t even pretending to be objective any more.
________
To be honest. I’m stunned by the perpetual surprise that the Murdoch Press aren’t objective. I’ve never known a time when they weren’t and I don’t think they ever pretended they were. The best Labor got was at certain points during the Hawke/Keating governments. But even then it was hard going.
There is little doubt that the Covid pandemic is the biggest threat to Australia since WW2 and that Morrison has not handled the situation well . Any comparison to border control is just plain silly.
The government made an error in limiting vaccine options, my guess is for economic reasons rather than social reasons, and unfortunately backed one wrong horse (UQ) and one slightly lame horse in A-Z. They have to cop the political fallout for that decision.
I’m not sure why anyone would want to ban anyone from PB. If you don’t think a poster’s contributions are of much value you can scroll past. I am reasonably confident though that urging William to ban one’s least favourite posters is a sure fire way to make sure it won’t happen.
If Gladys believed ScoMo wouldn’t sacrifice her to save his own miserable skin, she was badly mistaken.
”
Victoriasays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 8:51 pm
The bleedin obvious comes to mind
Sky News Australia
@SkyNewsAust
·
1h
The Australian’s Dennis Shanahan says NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian “missed the opportunity” to go hard and go early, and because of the hesitancy there will now be “a longer and more expensive lockdown”.
Gladys Berejiklian ‘missed the opportunity’ to ‘go hard and go early’ to curb outbreak
The Australian’s Dennis Shanahan says NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian “missed the opportunity” to go hard and go early, and because of the hesitancy there will now be “a longer and more expensive…
skynews.com.au
”
You know what is ironic about above tweet?
It is Dennis Shanahan who is saying that because he belongs to the brigade of ‘let it rip’.
It appears Sky at night want to throw Gladys under the bus to save federal LNP government.
Australia has approx 7.5million individuals aged between 18 & 40 years..
15million doses of Pfizer required.
1 million Pfizer doses per week available from August.
Does this mean we pass threshold in about November / December?
Funny how the hitherto invisible lurkers like “Max” turn out to defend the trolls, isn’t it?
Recon:
Yeah, but they at least tried to fake objectivity in back in the day.
It’s not just the political reporting, it’s … everything. International affairs, crime, sport, celebrity gossip, all of it is filtered through that same laughably emotive and patronising house style.
max says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 9:40 pm
I’m not sure why anyone would want to ban anyone from PB. If you don’t think a poster’s contributions are of much value you can scroll past. I am reasonably confident though that urging William to ban one’s least favourite posters is a sure fire way to make sure it won’t happen.
—-
thank you for saying that. -a.v.
BB
Yes, just what I was thinking!
Bushfire Bill @ #755 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 9:42 pm
Because Morrison is like Trump. He will always want to be the last man standing.
Sceptic if we do receive 40 million Pfizer by the end of the year we should as long as we can administer those doses in the timeframe.
He knows his most intelligent poster for God’s sake.
———————
Hey! Leave both of us out of this.
meher baba @ #706 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 8:36 pm
Arguably a protocol which keeps secret from the Australian public things that are said and done on their behalf is the thing that’s in very poor form.
Democracy means the electorate has a right to know these things and be properly informed.
max @ #754 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 9:40 pm
You don’t get it, obviously. Maybe that’s because you post so infrequently that the trolls haven’t focused on you yet and tried to do you over. Get back to me when it’s happened to you more than a hundred times, like it has to me, and then we’ll see how sympathetic to the trolls you are. It ain’t so easy to ‘scroll past’ attacks aimed squarely at you personally. Especially from the malevolent ones who use their obvious intelligence in all the worst ways.
Take the front page posted earlier. A normal news outlet might phrase those headlines more along the lines of:
“Australians celebrate as Ash Barty wins Wimbledon”
“PM approves emergency Covid relief for New South Wales”
“Government releases confronting new vaccination ad”
Breach of protocol? Oh my.
We have had 7 years of the post protocol paradigm and it’s Rudd who is the bad protocol breaching guy? Sheesh.
Bushfire Bill says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 9:45 pm
Funny how the hitherto invisible lurkers like “Max” turn out to defend the trolls, isn’t it?
zoomster says:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 9:46 pm
BB
Yes, just what I was thinking!
_________
Now they are asking for poor max to be banned! I have really discombobulated The Stooges! They are seeing imaginary armies on the horizon.
“BB” – if that’s who you really are , it is my great pleasure to have caused you amusement….though it’s not clear to me exactly what it is I’m being accused of. If you believe that encouraging William to ban other posters will achieve your desired result, please, go for your life!
There’s a whole lot of sock puppetry going on.
Four people have been fined after leaving a Sydney COVID hotspot and trying to enter Queensland on a 34.5-metre superyacht.
They were caught last week as the superyacht berthed in Southport on the Gold Coast.
Didn’t this happen last lockdown.?
Sceptic yes. Same result.
Greensborough Growler @ #771 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 10:10 pm
Multiple Sock Disorder. It’s what happens when you lose a sock in the washing machine. It goes into the 4th dimension and reappears as a sock puppet on PB.
Yeah absolutely. There’s this occasional poster on here. William Bowe I think his name is. Acts like he owns the place. I reckon he’s one of Wayne’s alts.
Michael does not and never has had anything to do with Nath/Recon, apart from having the same name as his late lamented sock puppet.
Back onto the Pfizer & 18 to 40 year olds.. those over 40 & that want to take Pfizer should have to wait until the young are fully vaccinated.
Clear policy call will encourage over 40’s to get on with it.
In all seriousness, the whole discourse over sockpuppets can be a little too paranoid IMO. Not saying it doesn’t happen (we all know a certain Green-supporting poster who has done it multiple times) but let’s not turn it into some sort of over-the-top witch hunt.
Victoriasays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 8:44 pm
Dean Rosario
@DeanRosario
·
1h
730 report
– Covid modelling suggests
– Syd is still in a growth phase
– it will eventually decline but the decline will be very slow
– Brendan Crabb (Burnet Institute) says if NSW adopt tougher restrictions similar to Vic Stage 4 & will get to 5-6 cases/day in 4-6 weeks
———————————————–
Based on the performance of Victoria during its Stage 4 lockdown last year, the simple maths outlook is that it was taking about ten days for cases to halve on the rolling 14-day average metric.
This was for the Alpha variant so if there is any variation in the trajectory, in both directions, it will likely become evident soon, especially once the peak is hit and cases begin to reduce.
For Victoria, Stage 4 was enacted on 5 August and the peak 14-day average was reached three days later at 467. It took 77 days to achieve less than 5 cases on the rolling 14-day average.
Whilst the NSW outbreak is not likely to hit the same peak as Victoria (we certainly hope not), you can still do the simple maths of halving the current rolling 14-day average and work out how far away they are from 5 cases, a point at which they may consider going back to relying on contact tracing and, thus, loosening restrictions substantially.
However, they do not appear to have hit their peak yet, certainly in terms of the rolling 14-day average which currently stands only at 28.56 but has some high figures already baked in that are only going to increase that in the coming days and probably the next week or two.
It’s difficult to totally compare and, therefore, forecast, as the restriction settings aren’t identical but even being optimistic it’s hard to see the rolling 14-day average not hitting 60, and not for another ten days thus from there it’s another 35 days, approx, to get to under five cases average on that same metric.
We’re talking September…at best, imo. The only variable which can impact that considerably is, as I’ve already mentioned, the trajectory of the Delta variant (vs. the Alpha variant) on both the upside and downside.
Every day’s data improves the forecast (or educated guess, take your pick).
Many years ago I had two nics depending on which device I used to log on with. I didn’t realize until William pointed it out.
English is the king of Abuse…
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/prince-william-sickened-by-the-racist-abuse-at-english-team-after-heartbreaking-loss-20210712-p5892e.html
WB,
There’s a feeling round here that you’re not looking that hard, nor in the right places.
The feeling around here is wrong, at least insofar as it relates to Michael. Nath’s sock puppet spelled his name with a capital letter and jumped around from one political viewpoint to another. The other “michael” spells his name with a lower case letter, is consistent in his conservatism and always has the same email and IP addresses. Those of you who are pissy with Nath (and me) over something he had nothing to do with need to calm down.
It seems to be part of the armoury of serious social media commentators to be the first to spot a troll or sock puppet or any of the other odd fauna that seem to populate social media waters.
The government made an error in limiting vaccine options, my guess is for economic reasons rather than social reasons, and unfortunately backed one wrong horse (UQ) and one slightly lame horse in A-Z. They have to cop the political fallout for that decision.
Yeah, THAT part of the COVID response wasn’t a race, it was a risk management and portfolio optimisation problem. And fwarked it up royally they did, by treating it like a race.
The @NSWHealth 11pm venues of concern sheets have dropped. Tonight has seen 4 pages of locations – I believe a new record…
https://twitter.com/NSWHealth/status/1414562489451175942
One of the conundrums of PB is that things are not always what they seem. Still – good training for some real world situations as well. Like LNP supporting the battlers.
Haha reckon could be from Dutton.
THE Russell – Will I die before I get vaccinated?
@THE_Russell
·
25m
@latingle
explains to
@PhillipAdams_1
that she DIDN’T get the Pfizer story from
@MrKRudd
, nor did she get a copy of his letter to Morrison from him. She got the information from an unrelated source.
#auspol #LNL #LateNightLive #Pfizer #Covid19 #ThanksKevin
PB is very paranoid.
Just because you are paranoid zerlo doesn’t mean they are not out to get you.
Spencesays:
Monday, July 12, 2021 at 10:52 pm
Not me that is paranoid, PB who accuses me of being someone else.
There is a rumour that an Eastern Spotted Troll has been seen recently in daylight. Rare for a nocturnal species.
So Rudd didn’t leak the letter, that leaves the business community which must be getting pissed off their party has been taken over by religious nutters, but did they have a copy of the letter? Then their is the public service, they had access to the letter and must be getting pissed off their political masters are so incompetent. Then their is a political enemy of Morrison or Hunt.
So many options.
Victoria @ #788 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 8:47 pm
It seems Rudd did conform to protocol.
It would be interesting to know who was cc’d on it.
This prescient podcast by Prof Talley the Editor of the MJA was recorded in June:
– https://www.mja.com.au/podcast/214/10/mja-podcasts-2021-episode-21-brace-major-covid-19-outbreak-prof-nick-talley
For those who are are not confident about Albo:
From the OZ:
Albanese has clear view of victory: Newspoll
Anthony Albanese would give Labor a majority government of 78 seats if the statewide swings against the Coalition in a Newspoll analysis were replicated at the next election.
Entitled brats:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/four-people-from-sydney-hotspot-fined-after-entering-qld-on-superyacht-20210712-p5891u.html
And if everyone actually is out to get you you’re not paranoid…
– https://climatepower.us/world-leaders/
Rudd, Rudd, Get Around, Rudd Get Around!
Look who else is there ….
Kudos to this guy. I only wish I had the same degree of physical mobility…
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-vaccine-rollout-sydney-man-gets-full-doses-of-astrazeneca-and-pfizer/news-story/fb79c9d6f8d233309f8da221eca4bc59