Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

Comments Page 20 of 62
1 19 20 21 62
  1. Mexicanbeemer

    I reckon Sophie Elsworth is going to have to have to try a little harder.
    The egg on her face is dripping to her ankles


  2. Gene Milessays:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 10:28 am

    —————+

    And yet you would think that those experienced enough would have access to and knowledge of the publicly available information like this

    https://instatsport.com/football/article/penalty_research

    TL;DR: Give the penalty shots to your older, more experienced strikers, not your kids still on training wheels.

    The English team Captain Harry Kane was one to kick the first goal. If the argument is that he should not intruduced when it is too late for him to make a difference, IMO then he should be 3rd not first.

  3. For the record I think Laura Tingle is a good journo and accept her word the KR letter leak was from an unrelated party. Therefore apologies for my comments yesterday. My only excuse is that KR does have form in this area.

  4. I will once again repeat myself.

    The majority of Australian journos during this pandemic have been less than helpful at every step of the way.

    I could link reams and reams of articles from Murdoch, Fairfax, guardian whatever. They undermined the health message and compliance to see us through,

    Simple as that. Leigh sales was one of many bad ones. But as she is represented by the ABC, I expected better

  5. Rex Douglas @ #629 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 10:35 am

    Credit to Ray Hadley today for tearing into Alan Jones and Sky for peddling misinformation re Covid and the rules.
    2GB being responsible re the Covid situation is very welcome.

    Yes, it’s a very interesting turn of events. I think a couple of points are salient here:

    1. Sky After Dark has really taken off in America via You Tube, so increasingly their message is being tailored to that audience and bears little resemblance to what we, and they, know to be true in Australia.

    2. Ray Hadley and Ben Fordham are both men with families and so they are probably viewing the pandemic through a completely different lens to Alan Jones.

  6. davidwh @ #639 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 10:49 am

    For the record I think Laura Tingle is a good journo and accept her word the KR letter leak was from an unrelated party. Therefore apologies for my comments yesterday. My only excuse is that KR does have form in this area.

    dwh,
    Don’t go down the Murdoch and facebook rabbit holes! they are a ‘frictionless vortex’.


  7. porotisays:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 10:38 am
    A Covid warning that everyone should hope does not end with an “I told you so”.

    What most experts can agree on is that the United Kingdom is about to embark on a country-wide experiment in gain-of-function research. …….

    It has ended a lot of times with “I told you so” in the last 1 year in UK. So nothing new about it.
    And there is nothing new about how they vote. 🙂

  8. Malcolm Turnbull continues to go to town on Morrison and his cronies incompetence , the lib/nats have no answer to stop the Turnbull attacks

  9. C@t

    Sky After Dark has really taken off in America via You Tube

    Yep, was reading the comments below one of their youtube videos and it was full of Republicans saying that it was the only unbiased news outlet willing to tell the truth* after they had been let down by Fox.

    * That the election was being stolen, of course.

  10. One thing about the media coverage has been the underlying emotional response by journalists that live comfortable lives all of a sudden facing disruption to their normal existence and you can hear their personal distress in some of their reporting.

  11. DisplayName @ #646 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 10:56 am

    C@t

    Sky After Dark has really taken off in America via You Tube

    Yep, was reading the comments below one of their youtube videos and it was full of Republicans saying that it was the only unbiased news outlet willing to tell the truth after they had been let down by Fox.

    *Sigh*


  12. davidwhsays:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 10:49 am
    For the record I think Laura Tingle is a good journo and accept her word the KR letter leak was from an unrelated party. Therefore apologies for my comments yesterday. My only excuse is that KR does have form in this area.

    IMO, only 2 journalists in MSM covered themselves with any glory or doing their job are
    Laura Tingle and Lenore Taylor

  13. Malcolm Turnbull continues to go to town on Morrison and his cronies incompetence , the lib/nats have no answer to stop the Turnbull attacks

    No doubt the Liberal-Murdoch dirt units are on it.

  14. The Rupertarium’s orc breeding program has been cross pollinating for a while. Planet Janet Albrechtsen is a regular on Fox Gnus in the US and has articles in the NY Post.

  15. Obviously too early to say but today’s NSW number hasn’t increased by 50% as I worried it might, or even increased at all. Dare we hope we’re near the peak where it jumps around before declining? Probably not at this stage.

    EDIT: five new cases across Vic and Qld is a worry but hopefully they’ll stomp on it quickly without pussyfooting around like NSW.

  16. Queensland has held off on any border closures with NSW again on Tuesday morning, as the state recorded two cases of COVID-19 in the community.

    Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says she’s not worried about any of the cases they are linked to recent clusters and both people tested positive in home quarantine.

    Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young says the two new cases show the value of maintaining vigilance despite low daily case numbers.

    Meanwhile, the state has not imposed any stronger border restrictions on NSW despite a potential situation in Goulburn.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-sydney-cases-and-exposure-sites-soar-victoria-on-high-alert-20210713-p5893q.html#p52gz7

    WTF, Queensland?

  17. Good Morning

    Maybe if Sky News is going for the American market it’s time for Australian politicians to make their appearance based on this.

    A lot of mentions of the good work Biden is doing 🙂

  18. Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 11:07 am

    Obviously too early to say but today’s NSW number hasn’t increased by 50% as I worried it might, or even increased at all. Dare we hope we’re near the peak where it jumps around before declining? Probably not at this stage.
    ______________
    Let’s hope it is. I was wary when the numbers began dropping in Melbourne’s lockdown but it turned out to be legit.

  19. citizen @ #862 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 9:08 am

    My wife booked her first AZ jab yesterday at our usual GP clinic in ACT which uses HotDoc for online appointments. They still have a 12 week gap between jabs and AZ is for over 60s only.

    I wonder what individual GPs in Sydney are telling people as regards AZ for under 60s and time between jabs.

    A tradie friend had his first AV shot 5 weeks ago, and was given a firm second shot appointment for 12 weeks later. He received an SMS yesterday informing him that his second shot had been moved up to a six week interval, and his new date was next week. There appears to be no consistency, either of messaging or actions.

    He drives to casual jobs, all over Sydney (Moorebank today, Neutral Bay yesterday), leaving at 4.15 am every day, and mixes, on the job(s) with people from all over (very much) Greater Sydney.

  20. Cat
    “In sociology and economics, the precariat (/prɪˈkɛəriət/) is a neologism for a social class formed by people suffering from precarity, which means existing without predictability or security, affecting material or psychological welfare. The term is a portmanteau merging precarious with proletariat.”

    Thanks, I hadn’t heard that term before, but the description is regrettably true of far too many people in this country. I think we are agreed this is the real issue in covid lockdown non-compliance, not “hesitancy”.

  21. ItzaDream @ #662 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 11:11 am

    Nice praise from Dep Comm Warboys for the people of Western Sydney. He speaks well.

    It’s Worboys, Itza. I’m thinking he’s being lined up to be the next Police Commissioner. And he’s whatever cousin of mine it is when you have the same great, great, great, great grandfather. 🙂

  22. Chant won’t say about vaccination status of deceased man – though implying that vaccinations keep you out of hospitals in the first place

  23. U.S. COVID update: Biggest one-day increase since May, number in hospital continues to rise

    – New cases: 35,199 ………………………….. – New deaths: 277

    – In hospital: 19,409 (+558)
    – In ICU: 4,846 (+192)

    623,021 total deaths now

  24. yabba @ #664 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 11:12 am

    citizen @ #862 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 9:08 am

    My wife booked her first AZ jab yesterday at our usual GP clinic in ACT which uses HotDoc for online appointments. They still have a 12 week gap between jabs and AZ is for over 60s only.

    I wonder what individual GPs in Sydney are telling people as regards AZ for under 60s and time between jabs.

    A tradie friend had his first AV shot 5 weeks ago, and was given a firm second shot appointment for 12 weeks later. He received an SMS yesterday informing him that his second shot had been moved up to a six week interval, and his new date was next week. There appears to be no consistency, either of messaging or actions.

    He drives to casual jobs, all over Sydney (Moorebank today, Neutral Bay yesterday), leaving at 4.15 am every day, and mixes, on the job(s) with people from all over (very much) Greater Sydney.

    This is exactly the problem I was trying to articulate yesterday with Tradies. Sure, they’re all out in the fresh air every day but that’s no longer a good enough excuse to keep them on the ‘Essential Worker’ list I reckon. ‘Essential Coalition Voter’ list maybe. 🙂

  25. ItzaDream @ #670 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 11:17 am

    C@tmomma @ #982 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 11:14 am

    ItzaDream @ #662 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 11:11 am

    Nice praise from Dep Comm Warboys for the people of Western Sydney. He speaks well.

    It’s Worboys, Itza. I’m thinking he’s being lined up to be the next Police Commissioner. And he’s whatever cousin of mine it is when you have the same great, great, great, great grandfather. 🙂

    Sorry, I knew that, fart from the brain.

    That’s okay. I get that it’s an appropriate surname, phonetically, for a top cop. 😀


  26. porotisays:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 11:03 am
    The Rupertarium’s orc breeding program has been cross pollinating for a while. Planet Janet Albrechtsen is a regular on Fox Gnus in the US and has articles in the NY Post.

    Like the removalists cross pollinated COVID across VIC and SA.

  27. C@tmomma @ #987 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 11:17 am

    yabba @ #664 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 11:12 am

    citizen @ #862 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 9:08 am

    My wife booked her first AZ jab yesterday at our usual GP clinic in ACT which uses HotDoc for online appointments. They still have a 12 week gap between jabs and AZ is for over 60s only.

    I wonder what individual GPs in Sydney are telling people as regards AZ for under 60s and time between jabs.

    A tradie friend had his first AV shot 5 weeks ago, and was given a firm second shot appointment for 12 weeks later. He received an SMS yesterday informing him that his second shot had been moved up to a six week interval, and his new date was next week. There appears to be no consistency, either of messaging or actions.

    He drives to casual jobs, all over Sydney (Moorebank today, Neutral Bay yesterday), leaving at 4.15 am every day, and mixes, on the job(s) with people from all over (very much) Greater Sydney.

    This is exactly the problem I was trying to articulate yesterday with Tradies. Sure, they’re all out in the fresh air every day but that’s no longer a good enough excuse to keep them on the ‘Essential Worker’ list I reckon. ‘Essential Coalition Voter’ list maybe. 🙂

    Gladys talked about 3 day testing for essential workers. Good idea, but how when where isn’t straightforward.

  28. The “precariat” are people in low-paying, insecure employment living from payday to payday, often on zero hour contracts.

  29. Interesting. The online The Australian. Just did a search of the ‘front page’ for Morrison. Number of times it appears ? ZERO .

  30. These GladysB pressers have a new rule implemented each day. Something like standing in front of the dyke, and plugging the new leak identified overnight.

  31. The issue of the cost of vaccines came up yesterday. AZ is cheaper. We know that.

    But its an utterly absurd argument.

    We’ve basically done one covid test per person. What has that cost per test? $100 a test? $150?

    Makes the cost of vaccines irrelevant.

  32. And also just the cost of the lockdowns makes the price of the vaccines irrelevant – this NSW lockdown cost has been bandied around at 7 Billion. The original Pfizer offer was 600mill (US I think), so 1 billion.

    Pittance.

  33. steve

    Yep. Pretty soon we’ll get the excuses. A booster isn’t really called for. We don’t have the evidence. Etc.


  34. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 11:14 am
    ItzaDream @ #662 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 11:11 am

    Nice praise from Dep Comm Warboys for the people of Western Sydney. He speaks well.

    It’s Worboys, Itza. I’m thinking he’s being lined up to be the next Police Commissioner. And he’s whatever cousin of mine it is when you have the same great, great, great, great grandfather.

    See how family tree grows. Was your ggggg by any chance involved in Social activities in his time?

Comments Page 20 of 62
1 19 20 21 62

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *