Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

Comments Page 21 of 62
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  1. guytaurs at 11:27 am

    Surveillance testing..

    Good term by Dr Chant.

    Not really, ‘surveillance’ not a good choice of word for things involving the public and government. It has darker connotations.

  2. ItzaDream @ #997 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 11:26 am

    And also just the cost of the lockdowns makes the price of the vaccines irrelevant – this NSW lockdown cost has been bandied around at 7 Billion. The original Pfizer offer was 600mill (US I think), so 1 billion.

    Pittance.

    Yes. Any political or media figure citing cost as a factor should be thoroughly pilloried for thinking Australians aren’t even worth $40 each.

  3. Being on the Strata Committee for my building (in Sydney), I received an email from the Strata Manager yesterday regarding a mandatory requirement to wear masks in common areas of strata buildings – foyers, lifts, etc. It included posters to put up around the building, which I posted yesterday evening. Hopefully all residents will comply. I recall talk from the early days of the pandemic that strata buildings were in danger of becoming “cruise ships on land”. With a more contagious strain of the Virus and aerosol transmission now known to occur, the danger is very real.

  4. Cud Chewer at 11:29 am

    steve

    Yep. Pretty soon we’ll get the excuses. A booster isn’t really called for. We don’t have the evidence. Etc.

    By a strange coincidence that is exactly what the WHO is saying. Check it out. Apart from evidence they are worried that the first world peasants will hog all the vaccines and leave the poorer nations up shit creek .

  5. FFS…

    COVID-19 case recorded in Goulburn on Tuesday as Sydney outbreak spreads to regional NSW

    Goulburn mayor Bob Kirk told AAP the person who tested positive was a painter working on the construction of the new Goulburn Hospital.

    “The COVID disease doesn’t ask people if they have a travel exemption or not, it just attaches to whoever it can,” he told AAP on Tuesday.

    “But I understand he is a painter … I don’t know how that qualifies as essential right now.”

    “I know there are more than a few painters around this place that could step up if needed.”

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7337874/covid-19-case-recorded-in-goulburn-on-tuesday/

  6. Jaeger @ #691 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 11:35 am

    FFS…

    COVID-19 case recorded in Goulburn on Tuesday as Sydney outbreak spreads to regional NSW

    Goulburn mayor Bob Kirk told AAP the person who tested positive was a painter working on the construction of the new Goulburn Hospital.

    “The COVID disease doesn’t ask people if they have a travel exemption or not, it just attaches to whoever it can,” he told AAP on Tuesday.

    “But I understand he is a painter … I don’t know how that qualifies as essential right now.”

    “I know there are more than a few painters around this place that could step up if needed.”

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7337874/covid-19-case-recorded-in-goulburn-on-tuesday/

    1. Why are Tradies ‘Essential Workers’?
    2. He probably provided the cheapest quote.
    3. Neo Liberal economics still being allowed to prevail over Health outcomes.
    4. A Health Regulation should be promulgated now that says you have to employ locally if at all possible.

  7. poroti @ #689 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 11:34 am

    Cud Chewer at 11:29 am

    steve

    Yep. Pretty soon we’ll get the excuses. A booster isn’t really called for. We don’t have the evidence. Etc.

    By a strange coincidence that is exactly what the WHO is saying. Check it out. Apart from evidence they are worried that the first world peasants will hog all the vaccines and leave the poorer nations up shit creek .

    So why are some other media outlets saying that billions of vaccines are going to be available soon? And keep being available. No pharmaceutical company in their right mind is going to stop producing a medicine that is needed by every human and that they can make a continuing large profit from.

  8. Ven @ #684 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 11:31 am


    C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 11:14 am
    ItzaDream @ #662 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 11:11 am

    Nice praise from Dep Comm Warboys for the people of Western Sydney. He speaks well.

    It’s Worboys, Itza. I’m thinking he’s being lined up to be the next Police Commissioner. And he’s whatever cousin of mine it is when you have the same great, great, great, great grandfather.

    See how family tree grows. Was your ggggg by any chance involved in Social activities in his time?

    I think he was an Anglican Pastor. So kind of. 🙂

  9. guytaur
    You do not have to be a conspiracy theorist to not be smiley face about ‘surveillance’ by ‘the government’ . For instance put ‘surveillance’ next to this guy and how ‘relaxed and comfortable’ would you feel ? ….

  10. Health minister Hazzard is asked the definition of “essential worker” in the context of the painter going to Goulburn but declines to do so because it is “challenging”.

  11. C@tmomma
    Production is limited. The worry is that rich countries will take production for “booster shots” before many poorer nations have been able to get their hands on enough to vaccinate their people.

  12. @kishor_nr tweets

    Would be good if people calling for a curfew in Sydney explained how that helps limit spread of the virus which is largely happening in households. The more draconian the measures you propose, the clearer you should be in telling people why they’re justified imo

    Right now the argument seems to be “people aren’t scared enough,” so we need tougher restrictions and more cops to freak them into compliance, even though those measures don’t actually target where the virus is spreading. Seems weird.

    Also “people aren’t scared enough” seems to be an entirely subjective claim and a lot of the people making it don’t live in Sydney so seems like a very strange thing to base your response to an outbreak on!

  13. The (Australian) federal plan depends on one supplier, Novavax, for 51 million doses as well as 15 million booster shots from Moderna, which uses a similar messenger RNA technology to Pfizer.

    But other countries are moving more quickly to cement bigger deals with Pfizer for the years ahead, led by European Union contracts for as many as 2.4 billion doses – more than five times the population to be covered.

    The Canadian government struck an agreement with Pfizer in April to buy up to 125 million doses of the company’s vaccine in 2022 and 2023, more than three times the country’s population.

    You be excused for thinking that our relationship with Pfizer is pretty toxic.


  14. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 11:43 am
    Ven @ #684 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 11:31 am


    C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 11:14 am
    ItzaDream @ #662 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 11:11 am

    Nice praise from Dep Comm Warboys for the people of Western Sydney. He speaks well.

    It’s Worboys, Itza. I’m thinking he’s being lined up to be the next Police Commissioner. And he’s whatever cousin of mine it is when you have the same great, great, great, great grandfather.

    See how family tree grows. Was your ggggg by any chance involved in Social activities in his time?

    I think he was an Anglican Pastor. So kind of.

    I just asked because I was testing a theory on ‘social activity’ gene. It may look silly but my maternal Grand father participated in political activities and that too for a bigger cause.
    When compared to any of my family members I am the one who is most interested in politics. 🙂

  15. A few points re ‘tradies’.
    A high proportion are sole operators. They are nearly all employed on a day to day basis through ‘body shops’ and are paid an hourly rate, offered via the body shop agents. Current rate is $40 to $45 per hour in Sydney region. They must have their own ABN, and receive nothing to cover sick leave, holidays or super. A high proportion of work for many trades is ‘inside’ not in the open air. My mate’s last four sites have included a high rise fitout in Market St, in the middle of the city, another high rise in Parramatta, a new block of units in Neutral Bay, and ‘in factory’ work at a bread factory in Moorebank (SW Sydney).

    Of note: The spell checker wanted to turn Parramatta into ‘taramasalata’ and Moorebank into ‘mountebank’! Such a boon!

  16. @MaxLoomes tweets

    How can NSW Health ask people to stay at home in Fairfield and yet not provide appropriate economic supports to enable this? 25% of the population is on a casual contract.

    Ambiguity around “essential service” and using “common sense” is not going to help control a highly infectious disease


  17. porotisays:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 11:49 am
    C@tmomma
    Production is limited. The worry is that rich countries will take production for “booster shots” before many poorer nations have been able to get their hands on enough to vaccinate their people.

    before many poorer nations have been able to get their hands on enough to vaccinate first dose to their people.

    IMO people of countries like that should be vaccinated with JJ, which needs just 1 dose.

  18. A ha! Some light on the “complex and challenging” removalists:

    Victorian health authorities are investigating potential breaches of work permits by a removalist crew who travelled from Sydney to Melbourne to Adelaide last week, before being called back to Sydney by a NSW health alert.

    They were operating under a work permit and national freight guidelines.

    “There was a permit in place and the permit has very clear obligations in it,” Victoria’s Covid response commander Jeroen Weimar said.

    “What we need people to do though is to comply with the obligations of those permits, which includes that you are in virtual isolation when you’re in Victoria, you need to wear a mask, you need to be socially distant, you need to stay in your cab at all times, and you’re not doing five hours of removalist work in an apartment building. So we’re concerned about that and that is part of the conversation we’re having.”

    More details here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/jul/13/australia-covid-live-updates-nsw-sydney-lockdown-financial-support-package-coronavirus-gladys-berejiklian-scott-morrison-pfizer-atagi-astrazeneca-vaccine-exposure-sites-in-victoria-removalist?page=with:block-60ecf27e8f08331a6b2852fb#block-60ecf27e8f08331a6b2852fb

  19. Wally Wallpaper would love Parliament to be cancelled altogether…

    ‘Federal Parliament will continue to resume sitting on August 3 as scheduled, even if a number of Sydney MPs cannot make it back to Canberra due to restrictions ordered by the NSW and ACT governments.

    The government denied reports circulating on Monday that it was considering postponing the next sitting period due to growing COVID-19 outbreaks in Sydney.

    But what restrictions the Parliament would put in place to mitigate against transmission may still change, as the restrictions put in place by the ACT government could affect travel for some time, the Chief Minister confirmed on Monday.

    MPs from Greater Sydney will need to quarantine for 14 days on arrival in Canberra starting no later than next Monday night if they intend to walk into Parliament for its resumption.

    The two presiding officers of the Parliament have been seeking ongoing advice from health officials, including the ACT’s Chief Health Officer Dr Kerryn Coleman, about risk-based protocols during the pandemic.

    Members of parliament who cannot attend will be able to participate remotely under arrangements in place since last year’s Victorian lockdowns.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7336799/no-special-treatment-at-borders-for-federal-mps-coming-to-act/?cs=14329

  20. I’m liking Julian Hill’s contributions…

    ‘Victorian Labor MP Julian Hill, who went through two quarantine stints in Canberra last year at two weeks each, said he would risk another as it was his duty as an elected official, unless he had health or caring responsibilities that stopped him travelling.

    “The Parliament must sit as scheduled,” he said. “This resurgent national crisis is due to Scott Morrison’s failing. He can’t just run and hide from accountability.”

  21. Police Deputy Commissioner asks people not to congregate at Takeaway food places. Can I ask why are police officers move in groups in these areas?

  22. Has there been any PB comment on 4 Corners program from last night..
    A conga line of spvis, shysters & fraudsters.. with magnificent support from Scotty-in-hiding & the inbred UK establishment… where were the Australian genius banker analysts in all of this.

    It’s a miracle Greensill didn’t engineer another GFC all by himself… as for Jewels Bishop, happy to take money to sprook something she knows SFA about.. & bail out before s**t fits the fan

    Former foreign minister Julie Bishop personally approached Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s office on behalf of failed supply chain finance firm Greensill Capital, a senior Treasury official says.

    Lex Greensill also does a great impersonation of Fred Dagg.

    https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NC2103H022S00

  23. Come on Gladys. Show us your advice. You and your Ministers love using this (fig leaf ?) so why not show us ?
    .
    NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian says an announcement on the future of Sydney’s lockdown will come by “Thursday at the latest”“
    We will, as a government, take the health experts’ advice on what we announce.

  24. The Canadian government struck an agreement with Pfizer in April to buy up to 125 million doses of the company’s vaccine in 2022 and 2023, more than three times the country’s population.

    Those Canucks are mad keen vaccine ‘orderers’ . About a year ago , before vaccines were available, I saw a table showing the number of vaccines of each type ordered by a country. Canada was top of the table having ordered enough to vaccinate the whole country 4-5 (?) times over.

  25. ven

    In my opinion everyone should be getting the best possible vaccine or combination.

    If there is limited supply then expand production.

    Australia could be manufacturing Pfizer and sending it to places like Indonesia right now, had it commenced building of manufacturing facilities late last year.

  26. ‘Sceptic says:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 12:13 pm

    Has there been any PB comment on 4 Corners program from last night..’
    ____________________________________
    It hardened my resolve to avoid stealing biscuits and just to steal the biscuit factory instead.

  27. Amount of trust that should be given to people in quarantine shown, yet again, to be zero.
    .
    .
    Three members of a family who moved from Sydney to Melbourne, in the City of Hume, have tested positive to Covid.

    The family of four moved to Melbourne last week under a red zone permit.The red zone permit requires total isolation — so no grocery shopping.

    Two exposure sites are linked to this family — the Coles at Craigieburn Central on Saturday, 10 July, and petrol station in Broadmeadows on Sunday 11 July.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/jul/13/australia-covid-live-updates-nsw-sydney-lockdown-financial-support-package-coronavirus-gladys-berejiklian-scott-morrison-pfizer-atagi-astrazeneca-vaccine-exposure-sites-in-victoria-removalist

  28. Richard Willingham
    @rwillingham
    ·
    1h
    Two people who were meant to be isolating under the red zone permit rules weren’t at home yesterday when authorities checked. Police have been alerted.
    @abcmelbourne

    These f’ers should be jailed.

  29. C@t from a while back I mainly use the ABC for my news, occasionally NewsCorp sites and never Facebook. My views yesterday were my own but I admit when it comes to Rudd I am biased. I just don’t trust the man.

    Having said that I said nothing on Sunday and waited until Pfizer made their press release before commenting.

  30. NSW need to learn from Taiwan on how to control a delta outbreak.
    Taiwan after six weeks have got cases down to 24 as of today. They peaked at over 500 several weeks ago and over 700 died.
    Taiwan had very severe social distancing restrictions and movement was as minimal as possible and it has worked.
    Like Australia and NZ, their vaccine rates are still very low (like most countries who have managed covid well initially ) but they have proved that delta can be controlled.

  31. If we had Universal Basic Income in place a lot of reticence on declaring control orders would not exist.

    The emergency health orders reluctance is due mainly to financial hardship.

    Remember poverty is a policy choice.
    Edit: Also remember UBI is a capitalist not socialist solution

  32. michael @ #1041 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 12:18 pm

    NSW need to learn from Taiwan on how to control a delta outbreak.
    Taiwan after six weeks have got cases down to 24 as of today. They peaked at over 500 several weeks ago and over 700 died.
    Taiwan had very severe social distancing restrictions and movement was as minimal as possible and it has worked.
    Like Australia and NZ, their vaccine rates are still very low (like most countries who have managed covid well initially ) but they have proved that delta can be controlled.

    Cultural differences must be taken into account (or efforts made to change cultural behaviours and acknowledgment that the success of this may be very limited). The cookie cutter approach to international development programs was a disaster.

  33. Re the earlier post about the UK opening up with so many unvaccinated being a bit of a “gain of function’ event. They expect one hell of a lot of cases busily ‘experimenting’ with covid vs vaccine.
    .
    Covid-19 deaths in England could peak at 100 per day in August

    More than 100 people a day are expected to die and more than 1000 a day be admitted to hospital at the peak of the UK’s current wave of covid-19 cases, the government’s scientific advisers are anticipating.

    Modelling released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) today gives the first detailed look at the impacts that might stem from around 100,000 cases per day, the number health secretary Sajid Javid has warned the country could hit when restrictions lift in England on 19 July. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have different plans for relaxing rules.

    Cases are not expected to peak until mid-August at the earliest, as covid-19 spreads to younger people who are not yet vaccinated.
    Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2283813-covid-19-deaths-in-england-could-peak-at-100-per-day-in-august/#ixzz70Skk9fUG

  34. Guytar

    “If we had Universal Basic Income in place a lot of reticence on declaring control orders would not exist.”

    Can’t argue with that.

  35. Anyone breaking the quarantine rules needs jail time and a large fine to drive home the point because there is no excuse for breaking the rules.

  36. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 11:14 am

    ItzaDream @ #662 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 11:11 am

    Nice praise from Dep Comm Warboys for the people of Western Sydney. He speaks well.

    It’s Worboys, Itza. I’m thinking he’s being lined up to be the next Police Commissioner. And he’s whatever cousin of mine it is when you have the same great, great, great, great grandfather.
    ————————————————————————–
    Ballantyne says:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 12:23 pm

    He’s a 4th cousin, c@tmomma
    ————————————————————————-

    I figure you are fifth cousins.

    Some more accomplished genealogists out there can correct me if I’m wrong, but I think it works this way:

    If you have the same grandfather you are first cousins,
    if you have a common great grandfather, second cousins,
    a common great great grandfather, third cousins,
    a common great great great grandfather, fourth cousins
    and a common great great great great grandfather, fifth cousins.

    Am I missing something? I was never any good at math.

  37. Jaeger says:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 12:20 pm

    Chinese company Shenhua Watermark Coal to sell portfolio of land in northern NSW food bowl

    More than 16,000 hectares of land bought by Shenhua Watermark Coal is on the market, as the mining giants cuts ties with the region and its failed plan to mine for coal on the fertile Liverpool Plains.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-13/shenhua-sells-farm-portfolio-coal-mining-northern-nsw/100288364
    _______________
    Made my day that.

  38. David Crowe keeps hammering the failure of the Govt to deal in any mature way with Pfizer.

    Neither Morrison nor Hunt have ever, ever, spoken with the boss of Pfizer, Albert Boula. As the gentleman Laura Tingle interviewed last night made clear, a phone call from the Prime Minister of a country gets through licketty split.

    When did Morrison speak to the Pfizer boss, Albert Bourla?

    The answer? Never.

    When Health Minister Greg Hunt faced the same question, he said he had also dealt with the local subsidiary, as well as a company director he did not name.

    There’s something very wrong with this.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rudd-claim-reveals-the-call-morrison-never-made-20210713-p58969.html

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