Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

Comments Page 22 of 62
1 21 22 23 62
  1. Wow that is going to work

    d

    Guy Stayner
    @GuyStayner
    ·
    1h
    Incredible that NSW seems to be relying on a self assessment for ‘essential workers’.

    “Please don’t go to work unless you absolutely have to”

    Anyone with bills to pay will
    deem their work essential.
    #COVID19nsw

  2. boerwar @ #948 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 10:09 am

    ItzaDream says:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 9:47 am

    Three S Sussan Ley has flown to Budapest to defend their indefensible defence of the Reef.
    ______________________________________
    1. Australia’s position on the Reef is indefensible.
    2. China’s position as Chair of the UNESCO Committee is indefensible.
    The reason? China is doing more than any other single country to kill the Reef by way of CO2 emissions.

    Doing more or done more?

    The US has twice the cumulative emissions of China. And that is before you do the per capita analysis.
    https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2

    But China and also India will take over in the second half of the century. It is why the US is working so hard to engage China and include them in future emissions reduction agreements.
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233581387_Cumulative_CO2_Emissions_Shifting_International_Responsibilities_for_Climate_Debt

  3. “Amount of trust that should be given to people in quarantine shown, yet again, to be zero.
    .
    .
    Three members of a family who moved from Sydney to Melbourne, in the City of Hume, have tested positive to Covid.

    The family of four moved to Melbourne last week under a red zone permit.The red zone permit requires total isolation — so no grocery shopping.”

    Yep. Now imagine tens of thousands of people from overseas being trusted in “home quarantine”

  4. Cud Chewer
    Probably, a combo of vaccinated continuing to go up and non infected potential ‘victims’ going down. By coincidence the expected cases per day is almost exactly the same as the current vaccinations per day 100k vs 98k.

  5. No one much cares about the chapters in the covid book, just how it ends.

    Still one K.Rudd and the pfizer story is funny. It will last as long as his royal commission campaign into news limited I suspect.

    I personally look forward to never seeing another aging epidemiologist on the news again! After Covid there’ll be a spate of retirements – how will they ever top this in their professional careers?

  6. LVT

    Of course no one cares. Sydneysiders in particular dont care at the moment. They are shrugging their shoulders and just getting on with it,

    You are a laugh a minute.

  7. Yes I think we all care at present. Another death overnight is worth caring about. I agree about all the experts and the conflicting views and advice.

  8. Recon says:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 1:22 pm
    Lars, did you catch the great sock puppet pogrom last night? was quite something.
    _________________________
    I did – simply shocking.

    I had a word association moment with BB – sexism, racism… anachronism.

  9. Cud

    The pandemic has upended a lot of thinking.

    Real policy changes to end poverty for good would be a good silver lining to the pandemic pain.

    I like UBI because it truly ends the Precariat class. Gives unions a foundation to bargain. The LNP running MMT policy while continuing to pursue keeping people in poverty is reprehensible in my view.

  10. I had a person a few weeks ago say that UBI was not possible because “the Left” wouldn’t be prepared to keep it at reasonable level and then nobody would want to work.
    The person concerned reads “The Australian” and watches Fox News.

  11. GoldenSmaug
    A Fox News watcher would say “Radical left wing extremist socialist agenda” rather than a mere ““the Left” 😆 Srsly though, that word soup and various combinations of those words is a fave of Faux Nooz.

  12. GoldenSmaug says:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 1:32 pm

    I had a person a few weeks ago say that UBI was not possible because “the Left” wouldn’t be prepared to keep it at reasonable level and then nobody would want to work.
    __________________
    What are the levels that have been suggested? I’ve seen very little on this.

  13. Recon @ #1048 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 1:09 pm

    Jaeger says:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 12:20 pm

    Chinese company Shenhua Watermark Coal to sell portfolio of land in northern NSW food bowl

    More than 16,000 hectares of land bought by Shenhua Watermark Coal is on the market, as the mining giants cuts ties with the region and its failed plan to mine for coal on the fertile Liverpool Plains.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-13/shenhua-sells-farm-portfolio-coal-mining-northern-nsw/100288364
    _______________
    Made my day that.

    Depends on who buys it, and why 🙁

  14. The 1% and especially the 0.01% of the USA would all be singing “Oh what a glorious pandemic. Let’s have another one just like the other one.”. From NYT .
    .

  15. LVT
    “I personally look forward to never seeing another aging epidemiologist on the news again! After Covid there’ll be a spate of retirements – how will they ever top this in their professional careers?”

    Yikes, what a cynical and mean-spirited comment!

  16. Depends on who buys it, and why

    The two smaller areas arent as sought after farmland – might be ripe for a dip by the PB Nature Conservancy. Who is in?

  17. Kakuru @ #1072 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 1:16 pm

    LVT
    “I personally look forward to never seeing another aging epidemiologist on the news again! After Covid there’ll be a spate of retirements – how will they ever top this in their professional careers?”

    Yikes, what a cynical and mean-spirited comment!

    LVT would rather hear the science explained and delivered by more revered and selfless sources like Paul Murray and Sharri Markson.

  18. Simon Katich at 1:50 pm

    LVT would rather hear the science explained and delivered by more revered and selfless sources like Paul Murray and Sharri Markson.

    Featuring Tones and the ‘Uniform’ de jour announcing the Melbourne and Sydney’s outbreaks.

  19. SKatich
    “LVT would rather hear the science explained and delivered by more revered and selfless sources like Paul Murray and Sharri Markson.”

    As far as these particular sources are concerned, I’d say ‘pseudoscience’ rather than ‘science’. 🙂

    Some people prefer pseudoscience to real science because it chimes with their worldview and/or their preconceived notions.

  20. poroti says:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 1:42 pm
    The 1% and especially the 0.01% of the USA would all be singing “Oh what a glorious pandemic. Let’s have another one just like the other one.”. From NYT .

    Success at last, it was always obvious that trickle down economics or as they say” a rising tide lifts all boats” economics would prove successful, just a matter of time

  21. My understanding is residents leaving Western Sydney ( Fairfield?) to go to work outside of the LGA now need to get tested every three days.

    If that is correct then I can see a problem or two with compliance. Will they have to stand in line at a stock standard testing sight possibly for hours every three days or will special testing sites be established for this purpose in the LGA ? A lot of these workers would be low paid workers in insecure employment living day to day and burdened therefore with the “ time is money “ conundrum of having to decide between losing hours and possibly their job or doing the right thing.

  22. Ouch. I actually didnt see press conference today.

    Bill Bowtell AO
    @billbowtell
    ·
    2h
    .
    @BradHazzard
    dismisses expert advice outside the inner circle. But expert advice and NSW government held out against mask usage last year, satisfied with hotel quarantine against delta, allowed unvaccinated front line workers at Sydney Airport and delayed lockdown for 9 days.

  23. Kakaru

    Some people prefer pseudoscience to real science because it chimes with their worldview and/or their preconceived notions.

    With their attitudes very very likely to be, at heart, stuff you I’m all right Jack , the “psuedoscience” providing a ready made ‘excuse’ for being selfish.

  24. ‘Simon Katich says:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 1:17 pm

    boerwar @ #948 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 10:09 am

    ItzaDream says:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 9:47 am

    Three S Sussan Ley has flown to Budapest to defend their indefensible defence of the Reef.
    ______________________________________
    1. Australia’s position on the Reef is indefensible.
    2. China’s position as Chair of the UNESCO Committee is indefensible.
    The reason? China is doing more than any other single country to kill the Reef by way of CO2 emissions.

    Doing more or done more?’
    ______________________________
    The present is what is controllable. Not the past.
    China is doing more and is intending to do more still. Stated intention is to increase CO2 emissions until 2030. Is discussing zero net by 2060.
    The rank hypocrisy of the Committee declaring the Reef to be in danger because of CO2 emissions when the chair of the Committee emits 14 times more CO2 than the peccant member ought to be obvious. But yeah, nah. The UN, including UNESCO, has been thoroughly corrupted.

  25. So, stage 3 tax cuts are a go. Rich are getting richer while we can’t find money to pay for more aged care workers and frontline health workers and have to cut back medicare.

  26. My suggestion on a UBI was based on the agreed definition of the poverty line +x%.
    Enough to pay rent, eat and have access to education and health care. My argument was that the average person would still want to work because generally people don’t want to “Just” survive and the UBI would actually be a permanent stimulus because instead of trickle down it would be trickle up (which is the way economies ACTUALLY work) but … I can only assume she (the person who likes Fox News so much) has a bizarre view of the average person.
    Unfortunately for her she will be surviving on the pension very soon with very little in the way of superannuation.

  27. That’s a turn up for the books

    Likes
    janet albrechtsen’s Tweets
    janet albrechtsen
    @jkalbrechtsen
    ·
    3h
    A year ago I dubbed the PM more middle management than leader. Hearing about his failure to deal with vaccines makers personally – given what it means for a closed off country and locked down NSW- he’s sounding more like Scotty from the mailroom.

  28. Mexicanbeemer @ #1084 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 2:04 pm

    Doyley
    No one is that low paid that they can’t comply.

    Not sure that’s the right attitude.

    Should be more like “it doesn’t matter how well- or lowly-paid anyone is, because the government has done the right thing and is providing support so that everyone can comply with the lockdown and not be any worse off”.

    Of course, requires the government to actually do the right thing and provide full compensation for the impact of their public health orders. Which, as the currency issuer, they can easily do.

  29. Last night I watched the 7 .30 report and was a little disappointed with the Norman Swan segment.
    He clearly outlined the timeline for both the Vic second wave and the current NSW outbreak. At no time did he mention that none of the lessons learned during the second wave in Victoria which include the “Go Hard Go Fast ” strategy which all other states have since implemented had been ignored. The take away for me was that NSW is not to blame for the surge in cases, that the Delta variant is solely to blame.
    Did I miss something or is it another example of NSW being a protected state.

  30. The present is what is controllable. Not the past.

    Controllable. Sure. But when judging a country you take in what they have done. So the reef is dying because of emissions from years past and will get worse by emissions now and the future. And the burning of that coal in the past is what has allowed those countries to achieve the wealth and international advantage they now enjoy.

    The weight for immediate and rapid reductions is on those countries that have the history of emissions and the wealth to be able to achieve it. And yes, China and India must be close behind.

  31. Victoria @ #1088 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 2:08 pm

    That’s a turn up for the books

    Likes
    janet albrechtsen’s Tweets
    janet albrechtsen
    @jkalbrechtsen
    ·
    3h
    A year ago I dubbed the PM more middle management than leader. Hearing about his failure to deal with vaccines makers personally – given what it means for a closed off country and locked down NSW- he’s sounding more like Scotty from the mailroom.

    More and more people waking up to Scotty the pretender.

  32. a.r
    It isn’t the right attitude but hardly anyone that works 30 hours or more a week is really low paid and the government should be doing more than it is.

  33. Morrison’s approach is pretty simple. He prefers the occasional big announcement rather than being out there every day saying the simple things that provide ongoing information and confidence.

    I think a majority of people have woken up to this.

  34. ‘Oakeshott Country says:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 1:44 pm

    The Twelfth passes without incident in the Northern state
    https://youtu.be/q8DrvE0pvY0

    Reminds me of the 40th anniversary of the GDR’
    _______________________________
    Call me old-fashioned but gut height did not deliver the optimum propaganda angle.

  35. Janet albrechtsens twitterfeed has been critical of the Morrison and co.
    I guess when its that bad no use pretending any more.

  36. ‘Simon Katich says:
    Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 2:11 pm

    The present is what is controllable. Not the past.

    Controllable. Sure. But when judging a country you take in what they have done. So the reef is dying because of emissions from years past and will get worse by emissions now and the future. And the burning of that coal in the past is what has allowed those countries to achieve the wealth and international advantage they now enjoy.

    The weight for immediate and rapid reductions is on those countries that have the history of emissions and the wealth to be able to achieve it. And yes, China and India must be close behind.’
    __________________________________________________
    Who is blaming anyone? My point is that the simple hypocrisy of a Committee Chaired by the world’s largest emitter by far pointing to the Reef being in danger because of Australia’s CO2 emissions is scientifically and politically corrupt.

Comments Page 22 of 62
1 21 22 23 62

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *