The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
No at least the mail boy is out there delivering mail daily.
The Sky After Dark far right small government, low tax, low regulation, libertarian Bolsonaro nutbags have consistently been against lockdowns.
They don’t really care much about who is putting the lockdowns in place.
Anyway another big announcement today on support for NSW may help this weekend’s Newspoll results.
Morrison is really your tea lady – a job past its use-by date.
Simon Katich @ #1073 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 1:47 pm
Sorry, we already own as much land under a conservation agreement as we can afford 🙁
Gee Morrison in a dress is a vision too far.
Here is Berejilian’s basic list of essential jobs:
https://www.careerplanner.com/ListOfCareers.cfm
Proponents of UBI never respond when challenged on the Universal nature and the cost of a UBI.
About 80% of the Australian Population is 16 years and older. That’s 20.6 million. Paying all of them (Universal) $20,000 a year will cost $416 Billion. Before the pandemic Australia spent about $190 billion a year on welfare and social security. Where is the extra $225 Billion a year coming from? What are you going to do about those who will be worse off on a UBI than the current system?
Buce a lot of those 20.6 million already earn more that $20k per annum.
Bucephalus
You could abolish all other forms of welfare payments and concessions then you make the UBI taxable income set at $10k below the minimum wage.
Victoria
I suppose what got to me was that he stated that Sydney did lock down quicker than Victoria last year. What he didn’t say was that given the lessons from last year it is not an equitable comparison or that Victoria has no template to work from which Sydney obviously does. Sydney in fact tried tactics that failed last year.
Buce
Poppycock.
Trials are done. That’s far more than the fairytale Reagan Thatcher Neoliberal Trickle Down approach.
Here is a study partly funded by a Facebook associate
https://www.npr.org/2021/03/04/973653719/california-program-giving-500-no-strings-attached-stipends-pays-off-study-finds
China Station
Comrades’ censorship:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202107/1228477.shtml
‘davidwh says:
Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 2:27 pm
Buce a lot of those 20.6 million already earn more that $20k per annum.’
___________________________________________
True. And if you do not pay them the UBI then it is no longer a UBI.
Assantdj
From my understanding NSW shut down after having more active cases due to delta variant being more transmissible
Bucephalus @ #1108 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 2:24 pm
The same place the rest of it came from. The currency issuer can issue currency. No reason why QE Infinity should only work for people/businesses who are already moneyed up.
Nothing, initially. Can’t be too many in that boat, and nobody ever said UBI comes with a “no worse off” test. Edge cases can be dealt with after seeing where the dust actually settles.
Perfect is the enemy of good, and all that.
Assantdj
To clarify. NSW shut down quicker than Victoria, but had much more active cases.
When I worked for the Federal Government I saw costing for the UBI.
Set at minimum wage.
Replaces ALL welfare.
Taxable.
Cut 20,000 public servants from Centrelink etc.
Net cost after taxes, public service cuts etc. was estimated at $160 BILLION.
Taxes for the rest of the population would rise by $10k a year to pay for it.
Some Social Security recipients worse off.
UBI paper:
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1617/BasicIncome
@joshgnosis tweets
PM, Gladys, and Perrottet presser at 3.30pm
Holdenhillbilly
If the UBI was at the minimum wage who on social security would be worst off?
Is the proposed UBI compulsory?
I have difficulty with the well to do being given money for which they have no need. Opting out must be possible.
I guess Morrison is the PM of NSW after all.
”
Jaegersays:
Tuesday, July 13, 2021 at 12:20 pm
Chinese company Shenhua Watermark Coal to sell portfolio of land in northern NSW food bowl
More than 16,000 hectares of land bought by Shenhua Watermark Coal is on the market, as the mining giants cuts ties with the region and its failed plan to mine for coal on the fertile Liverpool Plains.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-13/shenhua-sells-farm-portfolio-coal-mining-northern-nsw/100288364
”
Good
“You could abolish all other forms of welfare payments and concessions then you make the UBI taxable income set at $10k below the minimum wage.”
Australia’s targeted welfare system is why out social service spending is so efficient.
In addition, we have many elements of a UBI in-kind, if you consider the national health and disability insurance schemes (Medicare and NDIS).
It’s a pity Australia doesn’t have a government campaigning as hard as it can in international forums to reduce global emissions on the solid basis of strong local action.
It’s a pity that instead, Australia would rather use other countries as an excuse to neuter local efforts to change Australia’s own behaviour.
boerwar @ #1100 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 2:17 pm
You are. But you are blaming the wrong country.
The situation the Great Barrier Reef is now in is indisputably Australia’s fault. Not only ours, but we have to shoulder the greater part of the blame because we stood by and did nothing – nay, even profited from it – even though we knew what was going to happen to it if we did so.
Just as fixing it is our responsibility. Again, we cannot do it alone – but it is still possible, and it remains our responsibility to try.
Future generations will rightly judge us by how we act.
My view is that the UBI should be limited to billionaires.
The poor would just waste it on cigs, beer, and the neddies.
Dandy
Our system is different to the US that starts from a lower base.
We have a lot to gain by taking out the punitive part of our targeted system.
Especially as we know the unemployed are being used as an inflation control measure.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-11/if-we-stopped-using-the-unemployed-to-control-inflation/100279494
Likes
Chris O’Keefe’s Tweets
Chris O’Keefe
@cokeefe9
·
1m
Business support package to be announced at 330pm. Prime Minister and Premier at Kirribilli House. It’s very extensive, we are running it live on
@9NewsSyd
BW I struggle to get my head around a system that pays everyone, including the wealthy and well paid, a guaranteed welfare payment.
BW
And Kentucky Fried
davidwh @ #1131 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 2:48 pm
Not really a fan of a UBI, but perhaps don’t think of it as a welfare payment. Instead, think of it as a periodic dividend payment from “Australia, Inc”. Currently, only the wealthy get it.
davidwh @ #1131 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 2:48 pm
Those latter cohorts would give most of it back as tax. Presumably a UBI would be rolled out concurrently with closing loopholes that the wealthy currently exploit to pay little to no income tax.
Who can forget when Morrison called it the Victorian virus during our second wave.
Good times……..
AR
So your answer is no – you have to accept the money
Golly Scomo, what a fine mess you’ve got us in!! See if Kevin can help!!Gold standard NSW really!
dwh
This has some of the history included in the definition.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income
As it points out a Pension is a part basic income.
I spend nearly all my money on wine, women and song.
The rest I just waste.
Vic,
Perhaps he’ll come up with the Gladyseboli for the NSW outbreak.
It will be interesting to see if the package announced today will be the stock standard template for future lockdown assistance across the country or if it is just a one off for NSW.
GG
LOL!
Set the UBI equal to what can be recouped by a substantial universal land tax.
As a guide, $15k is roughly 2% of $780k, which is the mean residential property price (https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/residential-property-price-indexes-eight-capital-cities/latest-release).
Universal land tax would apply to all property, not just residential, so set it less than 2% and hypothecate the revenue to UBI.
One benefit would be that the ULT collects revenue from those parking their wealth in Australia but earning their income elsewhere.
AR isn’t that a problem with the tax system? Personally I don’t have a problem with welfare payments being set at minimum wage level. At present some payments are too low to provide minimum living standards.
We need a proper review of the tax and welfare systems however to date this seems to be political suicide.
Oakeshott Country @ #1136 Tuesday, July 13th, 2021 – 2:57 pm
Not necessarily? My answer was more that it’s kind of a non-issue.
Any UBI would carry with it changes to the tax code and I think it’s fair enough to assume those changes mean that the net result for high-income individuals will amount to paying back most (or perhaps all) of the UBI in taxes anyways. Like for instance, what Dandy Murray just proposed. So what’s it matter if they get it?
But I also don’t personally have any issue with there being some (probably means-tested) way for individuals to opt-out if they want. Aside from the fact that you’ll get all the pedants screaming “but that’s not ‘universal’!”.
Yes.
And Labor proposed fixing some of it at the last election. Didn’t go over well. 🙁
Two things I think that can be locked in as a certainty are any wage subsidy will not be marketed as “ Jobkeeper” by Morrison and he will go to great lengths to point out how different the new scheme is.
China’s plan to save the earth:
https://www.livescience.com/china-rocket-fleet-divert-asteroid-bennu.html?utm_source=Selligent&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=LVS_newsletter&utm_content=LVS_newsletter+&utm_term=6636498&m_i=21MBU4Q2WbKIQu5cVmEU13xHRrAFg24ClIC2xhz5DavV_UBKiPOAdOw6bClR2k4m3OBxobwgiSxEWLwEgfoGxIpfu4W_yuHRPRKoDxL22k&lrh=25f906472b12cdd513ad18c658ff4f7a33fb3db4f23d726a7285e99a19b7a0cf
DM
I am guessing you are proposing that the land tax includes the primary place of residence
I remember she put the kybosh on Howard as well, not long before he lost his seat in 2007.
Mind you, I think she had Costello in mind as his replacement.
The thing with Morrison IS that he’s typical “middle management”, not “CEO” material. I was gratified to also see it confirmed today (Bongiorno’s column? Maybe Menadue.com?) that none of his colleagues trust, revere or admire him, except vaguely as an election-winning prospect. Because he’s just not all that likeable or inspiring. Almost everything he says or does screams “Phoney!” He’s not the Liberal “type”: wrong school, wrong degree, wrong origins. These things, trivial as they may sound, really matter to Liberals.
If it becomes apparent that he doesn’t have another win in him, then he’ll be out the door. Proof of this is the massive exit of what in liberal circles passed for “talent”, before the 2019 election. A lot of the Liberal “best” retired then, clearly because they believed he would lose. There is no other explanation for the exodus.
Well, their bad, I guess, but this time he’s working with an even less impressive bucket of scrapings off the bottom of the talent pool than last time. Last time the punters were at least hoping that some of the second stringers left in the remainder bin might blossom and prosper with the heavyweights finally gone. The last couple of years of administration and clusterfuck will have put paid to that, well and truly.
We’re left with only a miracle as the best bet. Obviously Albrechtsen is an atheist when it comes to Morrison’s chances of pulling one off twice in a row.