Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

Comments Page 38 of 62
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  3. guytaur
    That point got a lot of airing early on in the pandemic. Needs regular repetition.
    .
    We’re in the same storm but not the same boat

  4. The Daily ToiletPaper is leading with this..

    Perrottet has ‘no recollection’ of asking top doc to take pay cut
    Treasurer Dominic Perrottet has stopped short of denying he asked the state’s top doctor to take a pay cut, instead saying he had “no recollection”.

  5. [‘Victoria has revealed eight new cases of coronavirus on Wednesday, with a major Melbourne shopping centre and an AFL game potential points of exposure.

    Authorities confirmed seven cases were linked to a returned family and a crew of removalists, who both came into the state from NSW.

    One locally acquired case was initially announced on Wednesday before a press conference at 11.30am where the additional cases were also revealed.

    Victorian Covid-19 testing head Jeroen Weimar confirmed four of the new cases were from the Ariele apartments complex in two separate apartments on the same floor the removalists were working on.’] – news.com

  7. “Atagi’s co-chair, professor Allen Cheng, pushed back by noting in comments to Guardian Australia that its role is to provide advice, but the federal government remains responsible for making decisions and the vaccination rollout.’”

    So Allen, here’s the state of play…

    When anything GOOD happens, the government takes the credit.

    When anything BAD happens, someone else gets the blame. When it comes to ‘health advice’ for the vaccination rollout, that’s you guys (ATAGI).

    Why is this not clear?

  9. Ellen Fanning:Journo
    @ellenmfanning
    Reports NSWTreasurer Dominic Perrottet wanted to punish the Chief Medical officer Kerry Chant for needless lockdowns – by cutting her pay. Treasurer won’t confirm or deny.

    https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/nsw-treasurer-suggested-top-doctor-take-pay-cut-for-needless-lockdowns-20210714-p589hg

    NSW Treasurer suggested top doctor take pay cut for needless lockdowns
    Aaron Patrick and John Kehoe
    Jul 14, 2021 – 10.24am
    NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet suggested to the state’s chief health officer, Kerry Chant, she take a pay cut if Sydney or its suburbs were unnecessarily locked down in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a Liberal source says.

    This mob of p***ks are beyond Trumpian

  10. davidwh

    Just wondering do they have separate testing centers for essential service workers?

    I like your thinking but teh NSW pollies and authorities have put a large banana skin between your idea and success. What is an essential worker ? Sounds like they made it anyone who thinks they are.

  12. No recollection generally means I have consciously forgotten what I did.

    Doesn’t it mean “I don’t think anybody can prove that happened but I’m not 100% sure”?

  14. Poroti ok but why not start with health workers, workers in retail and police/security. That would cover a large and essential group.

  16. Asha Leu says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 1:15 pm

    “This may all just be another spectator sport for you, but for many the decisions made by those in change or results of an upcoming election can actually have serious impacts on their lives and livelihoods. ”

    Asha, the point I would make is you could certainly have a discussion about the merits of say public health policy – but 90% of the discussion on here is more using policy to score a political point – so less say preventative health care and more Labor will spend more on health care or Labor is better than Liberal on public health care is the argument.

    The passion is also less about good policy more about my team wins.

    Increasingly people are moving beyond the 2 party duopoly and seeing beyond it. Labor good/ Liberal bad arguments are dull. Its more Labor and Liberal both bad in my p.o.v.
    _______________________________
    I’m reminded of when the comedian Norman Gunstan turned up on the steps of Parliament House immediately after the dismissal, to be (allegedly) met with a furious shout of “This is serious, you bastard!” If you want to be a shit-stirrer, that’s your prerogative, but don’t act surprised when it works.

    I think Jack Lang said never complain, never explain , never resign.

    I’d like to think I have never resorted to name calling etc and ignore it when its directed to me. I think silly arguments are fair game though.

    Best,

    Lars

  17. @marquelawyers tweets

    Summary version of new COVID rules as explained by Gladys and the Hazzard this morning:
    – there is no exemption for visiting your special friend
    – unless you have sex with them
    – on the balcony

  18. ar
    It may also mean you are Bill Clinton or maybe Alan Bond 🙂
    BILL CLINTON was the master of the ”I don’t recall” defence. In the Paula Jones sexual harassment case, his deposition reportedly resorted to this answer 267 times………. Australia’s corporate fraudster Alan Bond …………… Reporters couldn’t keep count of his ”I don’t knows”, ”I just can’t remembers” and ”I don’t recalls’.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/total-unrecall–many-strange-cases-of-missing-memory-20091019-h4zf.html

  19. I had my second Pfizer jab yesterday. Getting some side effects now – headache, aching joints, lethargy, chills, plus I couldn’t sleep last night (that is not unusual) – but nothing worse than an average cold.

    Good luck to Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide bludgers.

  21. Laura Tingle.. twitted an oldie for light relief in these times.

    Battered sav, Fatso and a cup of hot fat: Roy and HG’s best Olympic moments

    Damian Istria’s floor routine – Sydney, 2000

    “A battered sav … a flat bag, yes, here’s a complete flat bag … a very brave ‘hello boys’ … and closes the door.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfK3PEJOOWM&t=358s

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-13/battered-sav-fatso-cup-of-hot-fat-roy-and-hg-olympics-moments/100280786?utm_campaign=news-article-share-control&utm_content=twitter&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

  22. Dandy just trying to be logical.

    There’s your mistake. It read like parody 😛

    How’s the traffic on the bridge today?

  23. davidwh
    I am all aboard your idea. You just have to persuade the leaders of Gladystan to be more specific. Good luck with that !

  24. C@t….Honestly, this whole episode is simply down to briefly being embarrassed that he went off like a frog in a sock about COVID-19 originating in Italy.

    This is a complete lie. A complete and total lie. An outrageous lie. A thoroughly self-serving and contemptible lie. I have never made any such claim.

    Back in the day you launched one diatribe after another, attributing the pandemic to some inherent defects in the people of China. You were responding to the video of a woman eating a bat at the wet market and presented yourself as an authority on zoonotic transmission. Essentially, you put your phobia to work here at PB.

    It became very clear quite early on that the virus had been circulating in places other than Wuhan well before the isolation of a case involving the wet market. Those places included southern Iran, Lombardy and parts of Spain. This is well recorded. That didn’t stop you from posting vehement denunciations….your characteristic malice obscuring reason, as usual.

    I made the same point then as I make now. That is, while the index source of the virus is not known, a good place to start looking would be among the scientists who had been researching the bat populations of remote, inland China. They had been in contact with bats that host corona viruses. They were in contact with human populations and their animals who had also been in contact with bats.

    They made no secret of the fact that their studies included serological analysis of human cohorts for SARS1 in remote settlements as well as in Wuhan. They were looking for SARS1. This was a public project that involved scientists from many countries. It was no secret. Researchers went looking for corona viruses. They found them. What a surprise that is not. Since they were exposed to corona viruses other than that which causes SARS1 (which they have not found yet), it makes sense to ask whether they inadvertently became vectors for SARS2.

    That’s all I ever claimed.

    You should withdraw your utterly contemptible and self-gratifying lies.

  25. Dandy we haven’t been off island for a week apart from a brief visit to Sandstone Point on the weekend. Just playing it cautiously until our two weeks are up.

  26. @TrudyMcIntosh tweets

    #BREAKING – Sky News can reveal Home Affairs has been looking at establishing 250-person facility on Christmas Island for quarantine.

    Great yarn by @tomwconnell – it could be operational as soon as Jan. But due to extreme summer weather, would only operate between July & Oct.

    _____________

    Poroti

    Yes the inequality needs to be called out repeatedly. A bloody good cartoon that storm one.

  31. We were tossing up a visit to your parts on the weekend, but headed to the GC instead.

    On the way home the radio was carrying on about the traffic on the bridge – so I thought I’d ask 🙂

  32. Dandy the traffic was crazy on the weekend. Lots of weekend warriors driving up the beach. They all have to pass our place to get to the beach access. We see the ones who return on the back of the towies. It’s quite entertaining.

  33. ‘davidwh says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 1:47 pm

    Poroti did you know Australia is the only island connected to Bribie by bridge?’
    ______________________________________
    lol

  34. Good news for diabetics (in Diabetes week) is that there is a device coming onto the market that measures blood sugar levels via salvia. Another is that if you get your annual diabetic eye examination this week, there’s a 50% discount on a procedure that looks at the back of the eye – a wide-field digital scan, which is not funded by Medicare. Disclaimer: I don’t have a financial interest in OPSM.

  35. BB

    I rang the local (public health) vaccination hub where I live (NSW northern town) and was told that only way you can bring second AZ forward is if you are in Sydney. Otherwise go to your GP. When I asked the person on the phone where I could find that Health directive she said “It’s on the news.” I asked did she know the health directive and said “No, it’s on the news”.

  38. WOW ! It’s in a major US of A newspaper.
    .
    There’s no labor shortage — just not enough good jobs

    Employers in California and the U.S. are scrambling to fill jobs as the dust from the pandemic begins to settle. Just don’t call it a labor shortage.
    …………..“There’s simply no labor shortage when you’re talking about finding house cleaners for a hotel — there is a shortage of workers who want to work at what you’re offering,” said Sylvia Allegretto, a UC Berkeley labor economist. She said the country is experiencing a “wage and benefits shortage.”
    https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-07-02/labor-shortage-is-workers-crisis-as-covid-economy-recovers

  41. @cpi_aus tweets

    “The Rule of Law has been replaced with the rule of what you can get away with”

    ~ Professor Anne Twomey (in today’s Rule of Law webinar)

    #auspol #auslaw #truthinpolitics

  42. Sinophobes beware, the Chinese are coming:

    [‘It’s back. A Chinese spy ship has once again entered Australian waters to monitor our largest international war-games. And it’s using the same laws challenging Beijing’s claims to the South China Sea to do so.

    The Australian Defence Department says the Type 815 intelligence vessel Tianwangxing (Uranus) was shadowed by the patrol boat HMAS Childers and surveillance aircraft as it approached Queensland. It is expected to arrive off the coast Friday.

    It’s here to eavesdrop on the 2021 Talisman Sabre war-games – a large-scale simulated amphibious assault operation involving the United States, Japan, Canada, South Korea, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.’]

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/china-spy-ship-spotted-off-queensland-as-it-sails-into-australian-waters/news-story/a86cb2890a80b519e2f0f2cba115619d

  44. @verbaliza tweets

    SA COVID-19 health update:
    Two new cases in medi-hotel, one woman in 40s acquired infection overseas, investigation into how man in 40s acquired it

    SA Health Dr Emily Kirkpatrick said its possible the man contracted COVID in the medihotel as he was in a room opposite a person that had a historic COVID-19 positive case.

    Both men have been moved to a COVID ward in a hospital.

    Dr Kirkpatrick says a third exposure site in SA has been linked to the removalists but they don’t know where.
    The stop was not in Tailem Bend.
    Police are trying to find out where the stop was and if there was any contact with the community.

    SA Health believe the stop was not in metropolitan Adelaide or Adelaide Hills.

    90 people are now in self-quarantine after being linked to the two exposure sites in Tailem Bend – the Shell servo and Coolabah Tree Cafe.

    Tailem Bend residents and anyone who was in the area recently have been urged to get a test if they have any concerns.
    Dr Kirkpatrick says no positive cases have been recorded so far that are linked to the removalists.

    SA Health is meeting with SA Police this afternoon to consider additional quarantine and testing requirements for people entering the state from greater Melbourne.

  45. One advantage of being behind in the vaccination stakes is we can see what happens as other countries “do the experiment” as they open up. The UK ? ……
    .
    Young and unjabbed Covid-19 patients flooding hospitals, senior doctor warns.

    Intensive care staff are finding it tough to see younger people on their wards who could have been vaccinated, a senior doctor has told The Times.

    There has been a rise in Covid-19 admissions at hospitals across the country, particularly among under-50s who are less likely to be fully vaccinated, such as pregnant women and patients without pre-existing conditions……………Matthew Keenan, 34, a self-confessed “vaccine sceptic”, is fighting for his life against Covid-19, according to doctors at Bradford Royal Infirmary
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/young-and-unjabbed-covid-19-patients-flooding-hospitals-senior-doctor-warns-3ll77wgb7

  46. ‘Mavis says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 2:26 pm

    Sinophobes beware, the Chinese are coming:’
    __________________________
    Meh. BAU.

  47. Simon Katich @ #1891 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 2:28 pm

    I had my second Pfizer jab yesterday. Getting some side effects now – headache, aching joints, lethargy, chills, plus I couldn’t sleep last night (that is not unusual)

    Mine was better than the first. Mildly sore arm. Started feeling very tired 2-3 hours after injection. Slept well that night. Fine the next day.

  49. [‘A ‘wobble’ in the moon’s orbit could result in record flooding in the 2030s, new study finds.’]

    https://www.livescience.com/high-tide-flooding-climate-change-2030?utm_source=Selligent&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=LVS_newsletter&utm_content=LVS_newsletter+&utm_term=6636498&m_i=LKHSiwY4D6TXeAOzlnQwTyjIzl1fBef_lKXtK0vYiU3ea7Q62va0%2BVuh%2Bo9nF2S7sJPNdeynKFrJcNgbikfysUYPp5tKXsQePiJZbgHLLw&lrh=25f906472b12cdd513ad18c658ff4f7a33fb3db4f23d726a7285e99a19b7a0cf

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