Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

Comments Page 39 of 62
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  1. Seriously thanks for nothing Gladys.

    The removalists from NSW have not been honest and there was another removal truck involved. They did not even bloody wear masks.
    Now looks like we have another outbreak here in Melbourne.

    Thanks for frickin nothing.

  3. In fact, I have had a very direct connection all my life to the sort of racist abuse Chinese Australians suffer from by having been born looking slightly Asiatic myself. This led me to empathise 100% with Chinese Australians
    _________
    Classic C@tism!

  4. Thanks a r. That is what I want to hear. Clearly Dandy is a blouse wearing…. dandy. Softer than a QLD rugby league player.

  7. I have been waiting all day for a small parcel delivery and I know it’s illogical but it’s making me more nervous than usual.

  11. Victoria
    “The removalists from NSW have not been honest and there was another removal truck involved.”

    Is there something I’m missing? We are these removalists been so cagey? What were they transporting that requires so much secrecy? Plutonium? Illegal sex workers? The Ark of the Covenant?

  13. ‘lizzie says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 2:48 pm

    I have been waiting all day for a small parcel delivery and I know it’s illogical but it’s making me more nervous than usual.’
    _________________________
    Are we looking at cold turkey?

  15. boerwarsays:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 2:51 pm
    It is grey, drizzley, gusty outside. Excellent for Wuthering Heights fans.
    —–
    and sibelius fans; on with “tapiola” opus 112. -a.v.

    Wide-spread they stand, the Northland’s dusky forests,
    Ancient, mysterious, brooding savage dreams;
    Within them dwells the Forest’s mighty God,
    And wood-sprites in the gloom weave magic secrets.

  16. I’m thinking they may have done a special delivery in between legitimate work.

    Mind you masks are universally worn in Melbourne. They did not think the rules applied to them.

    Seriously I am sick of this frickin shit.

  20. Be-Jabbed @ #879 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 1:38 pm

    C@t….Honestly, this whole episode is simply down to briefly being embarrassed that he went off like a frog in a sock about COVID-19 originating in Italy.

    This is a complete lie. A complete and total lie. An outrageous lie. A thoroughly self-serving and contemptible lie. I have never made any such claim.

    Back in the day you launched one diatribe after another, attributing the pandemic to some inherent defects in the people of China. You were responding to the video of a woman eating a bat at the wet market and presented yourself as an authority on zoonotic transmission. Essentially, you put your phobia to work here at PB.

    It became very clear quite early on that the virus had been circulating in places other than Wuhan well before the isolation of a case involving the wet market. Those places included southern Iran, Lombardy and parts of Spain. This is well recorded. That didn’t stop you from posting vehement denunciations….your characteristic malice obscuring reason, as usual.

    I made the same point then as I make now. That is, while the index source of the virus is not known, a good place to start looking would be among the scientists who had been researching the bat populations of remote, inland China. They had been in contact with bats that host corona viruses. They were in contact with human populations and their animals who had also been in contact with bats.

    They made no secret of the fact that their studies included serological analysis of human cohorts for SARS1 in remote settlements as well as in Wuhan. They were looking for SARS1. This was a public project that involved scientists from many countries tries. It was no secret. Researchers went looking for corona viruses. They found them. What a surprise that is not. Since they were exposed to corona viruses other than tat which causes SARS1 (which they have not found yet), it makes sense to ask whether they inadvertently became vectors for SARS2.

    That’s all I ever claimed.

    You should withdraw your utterly contemptible and self-gratifying lies.,

    Must I counter your total disregard for the facts? I guess I have to, otherwise some may believe what you write in your portentous and florid way.

    *exhales exasperatedly*

    Your first lie is this one:

    Back in the day you launched one diatribe after another, attributing the pandemic to some inherent defects in the people of China.

    No. Your recollection is entirely faulty. What I DID do was decry the fact of China’s propensity to kill their wildlife and eat it. As, I remember, and I remember it correctly, I decried the African propensity to do the same to their wildlife. I even provided a picture of one of the African markets to go with my position about both. Does that make me ‘Afrophobic’ too?

    Although, and if you want to set the bar so low you can jump your pathetic argument over it, I guess it makes me ‘Sinophobic’ to abhor the fact that the Chinese do this. I guess.

    Now, to the next bit of garbage.

    You were responding to the video of a woman eating a bat at the wet market and presented yourself as an authority on zoonotic transmission.

    Erm, no.

    1. I wasn’t the person who originally posted the woman eating a bat.
    2. It was a picture, not a video.
    3. If I made any comment it was to the extent that, apropos my already-stated position that I don’t approve of anyone eating wild animals, there’s enough extinction going on already in the world. That hardly makes me specifically Sinophobic. Though, as I say, you set a very low bar for that assumption.

    and presented yourself as an authority on zoonotic transmission.

    LOL. I’m no authority on zoonotic transmission and I have never put myself out on this blog as such. I merely read the scientific papers of the experts in the field, assessed what they put into the public realm, and agreed or disagreed based upon whether what they said sounded plausible and scientifically robust.

    If anyone was trying to make themselves out to be an expert in the field of zoonosis and virology, it was you and your silly theory that the virus maybe originated in Italy, Iran, Lombardy or Spain and wherever else the virus fragments were found in sewage. When all the available hard evidence suggested it originated in China. I guess that also makes me ‘Sinophobic’ to tell the truth?

    Essentially, you put your phobia to work here at PB.

    Nope. Nope. Nope. Not phobic, no matter how many times you state it as if it is so. Again, it would benefit your argument if you tried to be more rigorous and evidence-based when you accuse someone of being, this or that, ‘phobic’. At the moment it has risen to the level of emotive accusation only.

    I made the same point then as I make now. That is, while the index source of the virus is not known, a good place to start looking would be among the scientists who had been researching the bat populations of remote, inland China. They had been in contact with bats that host corona viruses. They were in contact with human populations and their animals who had also been in contact with bats.

    This is not what the best evidence suggests at all. You may wish to familiarise yourself with it:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

    Essentially the presence in the wet market, over a period of time, of animals known to have the ability to mutate the virus in vivo and then pass it through to humans, is the key.

    They made no secret of the fact that their studies included serological analysis of human cohorts for SARS1 in remote settlements as well as in Wuhan. They were looking for SARS1. This was a public project that involved scientists from many countries tries. It was no secret. Researchers went looking for corona viruses. They found them. What a surprise that is not. Since they were exposed to corona viruses other than tat which causes SARS1 (which they have not found yet), it makes sense to ask whether they inadvertently became vectors for SARS2.

    Not so.


    That’s all I ever claimed.

    And you would be wrong.


    You should withdraw your utterly contemptible and self-gratifying lies.

    Not going to happen. Because I’m not lying.

    But hey, I’m sure you have an inexhaustible well of florid prose to muddy the waters with again. 😉

  21. LVR

    If you need to ask the question. You obviously have no clue what a shit show GladysB has created by her wishy washy mockdown

  22. Recon @ #908 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 2:39 pm

    In fact, I have had a very direct connection all my life to the sort of racist abuse Chinese Australians suffer from by having been born looking slightly Asiatic myself. This led me to empathise 100% with Chinese Australians
    _________
    Classic C@tism!

    And? That explanation is a problem for you in what way? Are you trying to imply that I am being disingenuous by stating that? Interesting, if so that you believe you have the ability to interpolate motive so definitively out of what I have written. However, I guess it’s due to your ‘fine intelligence’… that seems to get wasted on PB every day for some reason?

  25. Sharnelle Vella
    @SharnelleVella
    ·
    5h
    Minister
    @MartinPakulaMP
    on NSW support: we’ve spent a year hearing about gold standard and now it’s gone from gold standard to gold plated support.
    @7NewsMelbourne

    Question now is scotty from marketing going to support Victoria especially as it is a NSW outbreak that has been brought here.

  26. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 2:57 pm

    You’re repeating your lies. You are a serial liar. An inveterate liar. A malicious and spiteful liar.

  28. I’m really starting to believe that this gold standard was frickin bullshit.

    Dean Rosario
    @DeanRosario
    ·
    1h
    JW: We have not had any contact from NSW Health about the Family in City of Hume who came back from a Syd Red Zone to indicate the person who brought the virus back was a close contact or at an exposure site.
    —-

    So another Covid case that NSW Contact Tracers never knew about

  32. Vic.. Solid Gold Service

    Paul Dowsley
    @paul_dowsley
    ·
    4h
    This
    @VicGovDH
    worker’s job is to walk dogs whose owners are locked in two weeks’ quarantine in their Maribyrnong apartment block.

  33. Rex Douglas at 3:02 pm

    Boomers just spanked Nigeria.

    Have we peaked too soon …?

    Perhaps we should prepare for an onslaught of phone calls and emails from a Nigerian prince or the former Nigerian Oil Minister ? 🙂

  34. Victoria @ #1927 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 3:07 pm

    I’m really starting to believe that this gold standard was frickin bullshit.

    Dean Rosario
    @DeanRosario
    ·
    1h
    JW: We have not had any contact from NSW Health about the Family in City of Hume who came back from a Syd Red Zone to indicate the person who brought the virus back was a close contact or at an exposure site.
    —-

    So another Covid case that NSW Contact Tracers never knew about

    Chant and her team seem to be overwhelmed. Also seem to be under attack from Perrotet and his ilk.

    What a shitshow.

  36. boerwar:

    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 2:47 pm

    [‘Justice delayed is justice denied.’]

    Moving the trial to Perth would make sense given quite a few of the witnesses would live there, either based at Campbell Barracks or living in the suburbs. In any event, the show must go on, these allegations having been made some years ago.

  38. Yes vic health have been doing this service for residents during any complex lockdown over the past year
    _____
    Just going about it quietly and without fanfare.
    Unlike somebody else we know!

  39. Yes. Thank you. And no thanks to the removalist f wits, who didnt even have the courtesy to wear masks

    Stephanie Ferrier
    @FerrierSteph
    ·
    6m
    Thoughts are with the isolated Ariele apartment residents, they’ve been told that due to the positive cases the clock has been reset and they are again back at day 1 of their 14-day quarantine A shout-out to them all for doing this on behalf of all Vics
    @abcnews

    @abcmelbourne

  42. Benita Kolovos
    @benitakolovos
    · 1h
    Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien says the seven new COVID-19 cases are a “big test” for the state’s revamped contact tracing system. “If contact tracing has been fixed … then there’s no need for more restrictions and there should be no need for further lockdowns,” he says.

  43. lizzie @ #1941 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 3:30 pm

    Benita Kolovos
    @benitakolovos
    · 1h
    Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien says the seven new COVID-19 cases are a “big test” for the state’s revamped contact tracing system. “If contact tracing has been fixed … then there’s no need for more restrictions and there should be no need for further lockdowns,” he says.

    lizzie you’re testing my wafer thin patience ..!

  44. What stupid ‘logic’.

    Gideon Rozner
    @GideonCRozner
    · 38m
    If everyone who purported to be angry at unnamed removalists and the like was angry at the politicians and bureaucrats who actually impose lockdowns we might all be free by now. #CovidVIC

  47. None of the fiberals know when to shut up.
    Even when their federal and state colleagues stuff up bigly. They still shoot off their mouths.

  48. ”
    Bushfire Billsays:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 12:49 pm
    Service NSW has reduced person to person working hours from 8:30 am -6 pm to 9 -12:30 pm. They apparently not closed.

    How do you know that, Ven? From the web site? Heh-heh…
    ”
    I came to know from IT Professional of Service NSW, who is working from home. That is how Service NSW offices are working in Sydney.

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