The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
Fact check on Casey, looking at wrong number
54.6 to Liberal on 2PP in 2019..
Poroti I agree with Delta we need to go early and hard. The problem seems to be that by the time you identify primary contacts there are a lot of secondary contacts who have become primary contacts and on it goes.
”
Rex Douglassays:
Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 4:03 pm
Aaron Fernandes
@az_journalist
·
4m
BREAKING: Western Australia tightens border controls with Victoria. Effective immediately, anyone arriving in WA from VIC must quarantine for 14 days
@SBSNews
‘
Shit.
poroti
Remember I was searching for panic buttons and you posted pictures. Well it appears WA Premier has taken my Panic buttons. 🙂
If Labor wins the federal election , Scott Morrison could become the independent speaker ?
NSW in particular was slow to learn from overseas experiences.
Smith’s been the best Speaker for a long time. Very fair, and gives it to his own side a fair bit too. Cracks me up how he delights in telling the PM to sit down. Morrison always seems pissed at it too.
If he for real!?
Sceptic @ #965 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 3:57 pm
I wonder whether Scott Morrison, in his quiet moments, thinks something similar?
Asha Leu @ #1012 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 4:34 pm
No, just another shameless political opportunist.
Scott Morrison should be pressed into the sinecure of Ambassador to Afghanistan.
Recon:
I’m inclined to agree, though admittedly anyone looks good compared to Smith’s predecessor.
Asha Leu says:
Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 4:34 pm
Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien says the seven new COVID-19 cases are a “big test” for the state’s revamped contact tracing system. “If contact tracing has been fixed … then there’s no need for more restrictions and there should be no need for further lockdowns,” he says.,
If he for real!?
___________
The Victorian Liberals are a special kind of stupid these days. Say what you will about the Kennett period, but he could still cobble together a fairly competent bunch of Liberals to form a ministry.
Recon says:
Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 4:34 pm
Smith’s been the best Speaker for a long time. Very fair, and gives it to his own side a fair bit too.
——————-
You are joking right ?
No matter what people thought of Peter Slipper he was the closest thing to a independent speaker
The Victorian state opposition is that useless that i cannot name the key opposition spokespeople but if we went back to the Kennett years the ALP had key spokespeople constantly in the media.
Scott says:
Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 4:38 pm
Recon says:
Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 4:34 pm
Smith’s been the best Speaker for a long time. Very fair, and gives it to his own side a fair bit too.
——————-
You are joking right ?
_____________
No I am not joking. Smith has been excellent. Best Speaker I can remember.
Casey Liberal margin, in the 7 elections Tony Smith has won… maybe tough to swing this Blue sinecure…
2019 54.64
2016 56.06
2013 57.17
2010 54.18
2007 55.93
2004 61.35
2001 57.16
Recon:
I generally don’t expect Liberals to act in the public interest, but you’d think sheer self-interest, if nothing else, would encourage them to abandon what has now repeatedly proved to be electoral suicide.
I thought Harry Jenkins the best, and Leo Macleay the worst Speakers I’ve experienced.
For the most part, Tony Smith was a patsy for Liberal PM of the day.
Smith has only improved recently in attitude to LNP. I’d say it’s since he decided to burn his boats and retire.
Anyway, it will add a little spice to my electorate.
The Victorian state liberal party should be treated like the W.A liberal party , become the minor party to the national party
I can name all the WA Liberal Lower House front benchers …. oh …. er …. as you were….
Mexicanbeemersays:
Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 4:29 pm
Sprocket_
Didn’t know Casey was that marginal.
Add that to Chisholm Higgins and Deakin as seats to watch.
_________________________________
La Trobe, Flinders and Aston (Tudge Tudge Wink Wink) should also be in play…
No I am not joking. Smith has been excellent. Best Speaker I can remember.?
You have a very short memory!.
At 3pm yesterday the broadband network here went down and is still down. Telstra’s outage information is relatively helpful saying they should be back up by 0130 tomorrow morning.
The locals have said there was a contractor working at Oakbank who severed the main NBN fibreoptic cable. No doubt he’ll be in a spot of bother.
NBN’s outage information for my address simply states “An unplanned incident is affecting the network.” That is all. How VERY helpful!
Fortunately, my Telstra modem switches to the 4G data network whenever there is an outage. It has been intermittent and relatively slow – until 7pm when there is high demand.
”
guytaursays: Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 4:12 pm @DocDocwight tweets Amazing! Sikhs food truck cooking pasta for apartment dwellers in lockdown! No invisible Pentacostal food vans to be seen – anywhere! How great is Pentacostalism & Liberals? Makes you sick!
”
Guytaur
Sikhs providing food to the needy is called ‘Langar’. If you go to any Sikh holy place ‘Gurudwara’, they provide Langar from morning 7 to evening 7. For example, Gurudwara in Woollgoolga, NSW. That is part of their religious teachings.
Sprocket_
Casey is a diverse electorate made up of Melbourne suburbs and small townships through the Yarra Valley and Dandenong ranges. Casey has a fairly socially conservative profile that might be attracted to Morrison but its a seat that might flip if the Liberals were suffering an electoral landslide.
The Victorian Liberals used to be the home of the moderate wing of the party. There was the odd conservative but they largely held to the Deakinite tradition. Even when neo-liberalism swept through the party they could still hold some relatively progressive opinions. Take for example, Kennett as Premier being the only Liberal to stand up and call Pauline Hanson a racist.
Those days are gone. The old branches in the inner east have died out. They used to run the party and were at least sane people.
Now, with the likes of Bastiaan, the party is infected with some virulent strain of Trumpism, as witnessed by the likes of Dim Tim. Religious zealots are creating fiefdoms. Nutters run rampant.
Be-Jabbed @ #931 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 3:05 pm
Prove it.
I don’t believe a word you say.
Oh, and I gave a detailed rebuttal to your garbage. You replied with, and repeated, an unsubstantiated slur. Says it all about you, briefly.
I feel sorry for you that you are incapable of admitting that you were wrong. Goodbye to your latest sock puppet.
The Pretender, Dom… displaying Wally Wallpaper-like ruthlessness to get his way..
‘NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet says he has “no recollection” of suggesting the state’s top doctor should take a pay cut amid the Northern Beaches coronavirus outbreak over Christmas last year.
The AFR published an article on Wednesday morning that alleged Mr Perrottet proposed Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant take a five per cent pay reduction if her strict restrictions over the new year proved unnecessary.
Mr Perrottet was asked about the report on Wednesday, as NSW recorded 97 new cases and Greater Sydney’s lockdown was officially extended for an additional two weeks.
“I have no recollection of that,” he said.
The treasurer’s response came after a journalist addressed the article with Dr Chant during the press conference.
A Liberal source, who claimed to be briefed by someone present at a meeting during the Northern Beaches outbreak more than six months ago, shared the allegations with the publication.
The journalist said: “We read this morning that the treasurer recommended you take a five per cent pay cut if you recommended an extension to the Northern Beaches lockdown which turned out to be not essential or needed.”
“What was your reaction to that when the treasurer said that?”
Dr Chant appeared awkward as she replied: “I have no recollection of the Treasury making that comment.”
Premier Gladys Berejiklian then interjected: “I was there, it’s not true. I’ve been at all the meetings.”
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/treasurer-dominic-perrottet-has-no-recollection-of-suggesting-kerry-chant-take-pay-cut-in-covid-press-conference/news-story/587ae4cd22d8842905e20ba05264cbdb
Jeez, that Michael O’Brien is more glib than me after a few glasses of shiraz.
Alpha Zero
Aston is super safe Liberal territory
La Trobe is bit of an unknown
Flinders would be pretty tough for the ALP but they went okay in some of the bayside townships
”
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 4:28 pm
guytaur @ #995 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 4:26 pm
Confirmation. Two sources and all that.
@jekearsley tweets
BREAKING: Speaker Tony Smith has announced he will not be contesting the next election. “I also believe the time is now right for me to pursue other endeavours following the conclusion of this forty-sixth Parliament.” @9NewsAUS
So, he doesn’t like Scott Morrison either?
”
Didn’t you see him recently enforcing some discipline during question time on Morrison and other Ministers. That should have been a clue.
Alpha Zero @ #1027 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 4:44 pm
If only Michael Sukkar and Jason Wood could be booted too.
So the Coalition (in NSW) having decided not to learn from Victoria, have now (in Victoria) decided not to learn from NSW.
Well at least they’re consistent to a fault.
Ven @ #1037 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 4:51 pm
I imagine there will be more of it until he goes as well. 🙂
Another good reason to elect a federal Labor government. THEY will get to choose the next Speaker.
sprocket_ @ #1023 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 4:42 pm
Bronwyn Bishop put Leo Macleay in the shade.
Recon:
Seems to be happening to the Liberals all over, including in the ACT of all places!
One of my favourite examples of just how mad it’s gotten was in the Brisbane seat of Maiwar last state election. The LNP candidate ran primarily on an anti-abortion platform. Maiwar is an inner-city seat held by the Greens.
sprocket_ @ #1023 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 4:42 pm
For the most part, Tony Smith was a patsy for Liberal PM of the day.
_________
Of course you do. You are a hyper partisan. Sane people recognise that he’s been excellent.
One person’s sane person is another person’s partisan (and vice versa) :P.
And I’m voting for Peter Slipper as the best Speaker that I can remember. It’s why the Liberals cooked up a stink about him until he was hounded out of parliament.
Just remember the paltry amount he was censured and committed to trial for. And then compare it to what Angus Taylor has gotten away with. And that’s only the beginning with the Liberals.
Asha Leu says:
Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 4:55 pm
Recon:
Seems to be happening to the Liberals all over, including in the ACT of all places!
One of my favourite examples of just how mad it’s gotten was in the Brisbane seat of Maiwar last state election. The LNP candidate ran primarily on an anti-abortion platform. Maiwar is an inner-city seat held by the Greens.
_________________
I think the combination of same sex marriage and climate change has really messed with their heads.
The president of the senate and speaker of the House of reps both IPA members of the liberal party retiring, when Labor threatens to bring in a federal corruption commission .
Wonder if Tim Wilson , Senator James Patterson and others in the IPA will not contest their seat and senate position
Anna Bligh was pretty good.
Definitely the best Speaker of the last half-decade!
Anyone know what Scott is on? I want some.
Asha Leu @ #1041 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 4:55 pm
A Republican in the US made the very perceptive point the other day that these so-called ‘Pro Life’ advocates are very selective about it. They usually support the Death Penalty, guns, which are tools that are created to cause death, and are anti all of the measures to bring the death toll down from COVID-19.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/07/12/newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-april-to-june/comment-page-41/#comment-3652121
In Flinders, Hunt can be targeted over the vaccine strollout.
Tom the first and best @ #1051 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 5:01 pm
And he will be given millions to throw at the electorate for sporting amenities, and car parks. 😀
Cat:
They are not pro-life, they are pro-birth. Once the kid is born, they stop giving a damn.
They think it’s all over?