The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
Asha Leu says:
Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 5:08 pm
Cat:
They are not pro-life, they are pro-birth
__________________
I’d say they are not pro-life but anti-feminist.
The famous Pete Steedman, leather jacket, motor bike and all. won Casey for Labor in 1972.
Both work equally well.
Ven
Yes indeed. I was just driving in my car and heard the news re WA and people coming from Victoria . It won’t take much more for Mark to push an even bigger one re Victoria. Re the idiot oppo leader in Victoria 😆 now that is a a slow learner. The local flavor of Libs tried a bit of that early on , it did not sell well 🙂 When people have a fairly normal life pollies who call for actions which are perceived as endangering that normality end up looking
Bloody hell!
Doesn’t the Victorian police force have enough people to put someone outside the home of every Victorian that returned from a red zone?
The famous Pete Steedman, leather jacket, motor bike and all. won Casey for Labor in 1972.
Wasnt it in 1983? IIRCC he lasted until the 1984 election but still a shake up Remember he visited the school as a guest speaker around 89 and was very entertaining. Just what we need more proper characters and fewer loonies
Can’t verify this so make of it what you will.
Told, not by the person involved but by a 3rd party , that the person went to a hospital in the Hunter area for pre op talk.
Quipped to Dr WTTE ” I hope Covid doesn’t reach Newcastle while I’m in here.”
Dr replied it’s already here.
For those who don’t know Newcastle/ Hunter is a neighbouring LGA to Central Coast which is part of the NSW hotspot
The Channel 9 News just had footage from the access they gained to a local Covid ICU. The patient they filmed looked nothing like the histrionic actor in the federal government ad.
Recon says:
Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 5:01 pm
Anyone know what Scott is on? I want some.
—————————–
Its call non lib/nats supporter ointment
I do not blame you , it’s seems better than what you are on
Scott
No matter what people thought of Peter Slipper he was the closest thing to a independent speaker”
IMHO, the speaker should always be independent. The practise of the speaker being a serving parliamentarian is a shibboleth we got from the British.
Labors decision to back the stage 3 tax cuts may entice a few disaffected Lib voters in Casey. Definitely a seat now in play with Smith going.
BK
OMG , that really does warrant a warning message
Kakuru says:
Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 5:27 pm
Scott
No matter what people thought of Peter Slipper he was the closest thing to a independent speaker”
IMHO, the speaker should always be independent. The practise of the speaker being a serving parliamentarian is a shibboleth we got from the British.
_____________________
What do you suggest? someone appointed by the government of the day?
Professor Tony Blakely defines what ‘essential’ should really mean:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-should-bite-the-bullet-and-go-into-hard-lockdown-20210713-p589ag.html
We’ll be in lockdown by this time tomorrow.
Recon
“What do you suggest? someone appointed by the government of the day?”
Hell no.
Kakuru says:
Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 5:36 pm
Recon
“What do you suggest? someone appointed by the government of the day?”
Hell no.
_________
I suppose if you were designing a system from scratch, a retired High Court Judge might be a good idea.
Anyone for a cruise?
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/singapore-tourism-board-says-cruise-ship-returns-after-suspected-covid-19-case-2021-07-14/?taid=60ee8a4d8b2ab800018b4150&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/charges-dropped-in-strawberry-needle-case-20210714-p589ji.html
All charges have been dropped against the woman accused of deliberately putting needles in Queensland strawberries, sparking a national crisis and crippling the industry in 2018.
Farmworker My Ut Trinh, 53, had been charged with eight counts of contamination of goods with intent to cause economic loss and was due to face a four-week trial in the Brisbane District Court.
Stephanie Peatling
@srpeatling
· 24m
“Several busloads of students left the Bellevue Hill campus, shortly after Premier Gladys Berejiklian announced stay-at-home orders & remote learning for the rest of Greater Sydney would be extended a further two weeks.”
No it’s a 180 day lockdown
Students will spend the next six months at the school’s Glengarry residential campus in Kangaroo Valley, where they partake in an annual year 9 academic and outdoor education program, supervised by about 30 staff, including some casuals and others who live on site.
Edit.. just noticed the “partake”.. nice touch
BK @ #1075 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 5:37 pm
Warren Entsch was touting for the cruise ship industry to be opened up again for passengers from Cairns, all the way down the East Coast of Australia, this week. 🙄
Sounds like those students were forewarned.
Heard some kind of expert on RN this morning, saying that at the current rate of lockdown they project that NSW will be on 40 cases a day at the end of September. A proper, Victorian style lockdown would see it down to 4.
The key difference is apparently the travel zones – 5 k is more effective than 10k.
Worth reposting. What we currently know about how well various vaccines perform relative to various variants. Based on data from UK Health. Again, look at how poorly AZ performs with the Delta strain and the difference between it and Pfizer.
If only NSW had proper Victorian lockdowns and Victoria had proper NSW Hotel Quarantine!
Cud Chewer,
60% protection is great. As we said in the army, I’d rather a second class ride, than a first class walk.
Something is better than nothing.
I fully expect to get AZ and Pfizer over the next 12 months. And probably a booster of each.
We need a laugh
Rohan Smith
@Ro_Smith
What if… and hear me out… we moved the Montague Street bridge to the border?? It is Melbourne’s greatest weapon against removalists.
Recon
“I suppose if you were designing a system from scratch, a retired High Court Judge might be a good idea.”
Actually that would be an excellent idea.
Those interested in the “lab escape” theory should listen to this..
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/healthreport/health-report-12-july/13441300
Skip to 08:00
Peter Doherty makes it very clear.
TL;DR No chance it was an engineered strain. No way to know if it was a lab escape. It doesn’t help us much to have a conclusive answer. What matters is more surveillance in the field.
Also the “lab escape” of H1N1 in 1977 was the result of a deliberate challenge trial. “there has never been a pandemic caused by a lab escape”.
Also, the first part of this program basically says NSW needs to get serious about its lockdown or else it will have to stay in force for months.
You all know where Ipswich is, right? So does COVID.
south
“60% protection is great”
Well, no. Its good enough if its a temporary fix and you can come along later with a booster of something better.
The difference between a 60% effective vaccine and a 88% effective vaccine is that with the better vaccine (and some public health measures) you have some chance of getting enough people vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. With the weaker vaccine, not only is this almost impossible, but its far more likely that you’ll see a resurgence of very high numbers of infections. Just as you’re seeing in the UK right now. If we don’t want to go down that path, we need to ensure that everyone in Australia gets a booster shot and it should be prioritised for those who got 2 AZ doses.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/07/12/newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-april-to-june/comment-page-42/#comment-3652169
Victoria fixed its hotel quarantine during and after the big lockdown, so it now has the best hotel quarantine (although the Howard Springs cabin system is best).
It seems to me that NSW has been more concerned with quantity than quality in hotel quarantine, that has certainly been my impression from Gladys`s rhetoric.
BK
F*cken hell that David Rowe cartoon was HILARIOUS.
Cud Chewer @ #2082 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 5:54 pm
Those “interested” in the lab escape theory should perhaps also declare their political, ideological or commercial interests, because there is no other reason to be “interested” in it at all 🙁
BK
What amazes me in the whole sordid debate about airborne transmission of covid was the first clear evidence of airborne transmission came very early – in the form of cruise ships.
Kakuru says:
Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 5:52 pm
Recon
“I suppose if you were designing a system from scratch, a retired High Court Judge might be a good idea.”
Actually that would be an excellent idea.
——————
Dyson Heydon ?
Dandy
I’ve been to Ipswitch. But more by accident than choice 🙂
NSW Health alert..
A Woolworths in Dubbo in western NSW has also been listed as an exposure site on 9 July.
I think they are onto @Catomma, @Boerwar
Who dunnit?
Frydenburg trying to call out Andrews for playing politics is the height of hypocrisy.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/victoria-s-virus-victory-one-for-the-public-not-premier-frydenberg-20201027-p5692y
Have been listening to a ‘Proof ‘ podcast regarding Trump’s deliberate avoidance of acknowledging Covid. A US govt simulation ‘Crimson Contagion’ with it’s catastrophic conclusion was ignored by him as were the warnings from the Pentagon and Military intelligence. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimson_Contagion
The podcasts – Episode 5
https://sethabramson.substack.com/p/audio-every-episode-of-proof-a-pre
Have been listening to a ‘Proof ‘ podcast regarding Trump’s deliberate avoidance of acknowledging Covid. A US govt simulation ‘Crimson Contagion’ with it’s catastrophic conclusion was ignored by him as were the warnings from the Pentagon and Military intelligence. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimson_Contagion
The podcasts – Episode 5
https://sethabramson.substack.com/p/audio-every-episode-of-proof-a-pre
BK
Rowe strikes again with delicious cruelty! 🙂
Just like people, you can tell a lot about the character of a nation by who their “friends” are …
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/14/fossil-fuel-friends-saudi-arabia-and-bahrain-back-australias-lobbying-on-great-barrier-reef-unesco
The Israel situation is interesting, including this snippet from a state of play article… makes you wonder about these ‘fully vaccinated’ incomers having a lesser quarantine requirement.
‘The surge in cases is attributed to the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus, which is twice as contagious as the original variant of COVID-19 and has become the dominant strain of the virus in Israel. Last week, a vaccinated passenger who arrived in Israel from abroad was diagnosed with the country’s first case of a new coronavirus variant known as delta plus. The delta plus variant is very similar to the more widespread delta variant, and it is still not clear if it’s more contagious or dangerous than the delta variant.’
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/covid-in-israel-another-high-broken-but-serious-cases-remain-low-1.9998442
Dubbo? Riverwood? Waiting for the Murdoch hit squad to excoriate NSW Health…
‘NSW Health has issued a correction to the list of venues of concern it released earlier.
The Dubbo Woolworths is not a venue of concern. NSW Health says the correct location is Riverwood Woolworths in Sydney on 9 July.