Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

Comments Page 43 of 62
1 42 43 44 62
  1. Hopefully, SA doesn’t join NSW and Vic with this one.
    “Rohan Smith@Ro_Smith · 6m
    BREAKING: South Australian police say the Tailem Bend Shell petrol station where three infectious removalists from Sydney attended on Friday night had 76 credit card transactions and only 25 QR code check-ins. More than 118 close contacts already identified.
    @newscomauHQ”

  2. CC

    What amazes me in the whole sordid debate about airborne transmission of covid was the first clear evidence of airborne transmission came very early – in the form of cruise ships.

    I remember this from way back. This article is from April but I am sure this was reported earlier than that

    How Coronavirus Infected Some, but Not All, in a Restaurant

    A limited study by Chinese researchers suggests the role played by air currents in spreading the illness in enclosed spaces.
    In January, at a restaurant in Guangzhou, China, one diner infected with the novel coronavirus but not yet feeling sick appeared to have spread the disease to nine other people. One of the restaurant’s air-conditioners apparently blew the virus particles around the dining room.

    There were 73 other diners who ate that day on the same floor of the five-story restaurant, and the good news is they did not become sick. Neither did the eight employees who were working on the floor at the time.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/health/airflow-coronavirus-restaurants.html

    But remember, ‘airborne transmission’ has very specific meaning among real experts , just because you caught it “from the air’ doesn’t mean teh disease is one of airborne transmission 🙂

  3. At this point we should not refer to this as the #GladysOutbreak in Sydney.

    It is the #GladysOutbreak in South Eastern Australia.

    QuarantineFail, VaccinationFail, and LockdownFail and now BorderFail. The Liberal party is too busy corrupting the country to run the country.

  4. mikehilliard at 6:33 pm

    A Chinese surveillance ship turning up just in time so Scotty can do a bit of fear mongering there as a distraction.

    Wuflu outbreak as we speak, a Chinese spy ship turns up, join the dots , Winnie the Xi has questions to answer 😆

  5. As of midnight tonight, South Australia authorities require all people coming in from Victoria to undertake level 1 testing. That means you must have a test within 24 hours of arriving in South Australia and you are not permitted to go to a high-risk location, for example, an aged-care facility until you have a negative result.

    South Australia is also requiring all freight drivers who are arriving in South Australia to produce evidence of a negative COVID test that has been undertaken within the last 48 hours on arrival to the state. If you don’t have a negative result, you will be required to have a test within 24 hours after arriving in South Australia.

    South Australian police also took the opportunity to encourage anyone who was at the AFL at the MCG to isolate and get a test and contact SA Health for further instructions. If you have been in Victoria over the last weekend, you are also encouraged to keep up to date with exposure sites emerging in Victoria and follow health advice if you have been to one of those sites.

  6. ‘mikehilliard says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 6:33 pm

    A Chinese surveillance ship turning up just in time so Scotty can do a bit of fear mongering there as a distraction.’
    _________________________
    This is global BAU.
    It seemed to me that Morrison was amping it up a bit today but that Dutton was hosing it down. If it were the Global Times there would be mass bluster, threats, etc, etc, etc with the PLAN declaring complete victory in expelling the ship when it finally leaves of its own accord.
    FWIW, The Global Times has not mention the spy ship at all.

  7. I know things have or are in the process of turning to shit on the big island and this is a bit of old news but I wonder why there hasn’t been an outcry about an incident in a government run nursing home here in Tasmania?
    An elderly dementia patient’s family found him in bed fly blown. For non country folk that means he had wounds that were crawling with maggots. I know the use of maggots in wound care are used in other countries (maybe used here, any medicos care to comment?)but I don’t think this use was intentional.

    Could it be that Tasmania has a Liberal state government and has had for the the last 8 or so years?

    I can only imagine the shit storm if the government was Labor.

    If it was a Labor government I’d be joining in.

  8. “Rohan Smith@Ro_Smith · 6m
    BREAKING: South Australian police say the Tailem Bend Shell petrol station where three infectious removalists from Sydney attended on Friday night had 76 credit card transactions and only 25 QR code check-ins. More than 118 close contacts already identified.“

    That is a large failure of the service station to enforce requiring QR codes. This highlights the arbitrary nature of fining people for non-compliance. Businesses in Adelaide were fined for far less breaches than that.

    Though the idea that people in Fairfield can be fined for moving outside without testing, yet requiring them to queue for six hours for a test, surely wins first prize for arbitrary covid injustice.

  9. boerwar says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 6:46 pm

    As for the timing of the spy ship’s arrival, that is determined by the timing of the relevant international war games.
    ____________
    If we all band together we can roll BW up in a rug, toss him on a boat and meet up with the Chinese spy ship to exchange him for some yum cha.

  10. bw

    It’s mean’t to be in stealth mode but everyone knows where it is. Maybe that’s why the globule times hasn’t reported, they’re pretending it’s not there.

  11. Jaeger

    I was thinking. We could put the stranded aussies on cruise ships. Quarantine on the way.

    Those that survive get a free lottery ticket.

    Watcha think? 🙂

  12. ‘mikehilliard says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 6:52 pm

    bw

    It’s mean’t to be in stealth mode but everyone knows where it is. Maybe that’s why the globule times hasn’t reported, they’re pretending it’s not there.’
    ________________________________________
    Stealthy like as sore thumb. It is there to hoover up electronic signals. It is in international waters. It is obeying the laws of the sea. This is situation normal. Depending on what it emits it may even be marginally useful for the military exercize.

  13. One of the consequences of China’s belligerent bullying is that these annual exercises have more participants than usual.

  14. People are surprised/shocked/concerned that the Chinese are monitoring military exercises? I’d be surprised if they didn’t.

    Oh for the good old days of the Cold War when the US and Soviet fleets used to play chicken in the Mediterranean.

    And Soviet bombers used to fly towards Britain to see how close they could get before the fighters showed up.

    Now days I guess most information gathering can be done by remote control.

  15. In recognition of the need for honesty in posting I now post as Cut Snake but was previously Kambah Mick, the change was accidental (fat fingers, slow reactions). As only about a once per month poster I didn’t think the change mattered much.
    RE the ACT Libs, a friend who is something of an insider (was on Zeds staff) reckons there is only one ambition in ACT Liberal land and that is to hold the second Senate spot. They have pretty much given up on the local Assembly albeit a sinecure there is much admired, or as second best as a staffer to an assembly member. He thinks that might change a bit if the fed Libs lose the next election as bloated members offices mean bulk unemployment for staffers could be much on their minds and membership of the AAT panel is now closed off.

  16. ‘Rossmcg says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 7:01 pm

    People are surprised/shocked/concerned that the Chinese are monitoring military exercises? I’d be surprised if they didn’t.

    Oh for the good old days of the Cold War when the US and Soviet fleets used to play chicken in the Mediterranean.

    And Soviet bombers used to fly towards Britain to see how close they could get before the fighters showed up.

    Now days I guess most information gathering can be done by remote control.’
    ________________________
    Silly bugger military close shave behaviour between China and the US has tailed off, IMO. OTOH, silly bugger behaviour between Russian Federation planes and US and UK ships in the Black Sea seems to be at relatively high levels.
    It is hard to say because reporting of this stuff is strongly selective.
    https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a35386714/watch-russian-strike-jet-buzz-us-navy-destroyer/

  17. ‘poroti says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 7:04 pm

    Perhaps the Chinese ship is returning Harold Holt ?’
    _________________________________
    haha

  18. Jaeger

    I was thinking. We could put the stranded aussies on cruise ships. Quarantine on the way.

    Those that survive get a free lottery ticket.

    Watcha think? 🙂

    Seems fair. 😉

  19. laughtong @ #2121 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 6:53 pm

    Bert
    This did get covered by the ABC

    Review into Roy Fagan Centre, where dementia patient was found with maggot-infested wounds, highlights staff shortages
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-13/tasmania-roy-fagan-dementia-patient-maggot-infested-wound-review/100289322

    I know that. Our local ABC are into it like a dog after a bone. My point is if something like this happened in Victoria, Western Australia or Queensland the murdoch toilet papers (don’t use newspaper for a botty wipe, it clogs the system up) and sad would be all over it.

  20. Boerwar

    Yes. In late afternoon.
    I now have a restocked aquarium after so many died in the power failure (9 days). Bristlenoses were the great survivors when the water went cold.
    I suppose I’m taking a chance it won’t happen again.

  21. Albo should get some pretty good support from Rudd in any upcoming election. He is most certainly a indefatigable character and still resonates in seat rich qld.if not elsewhere. I see him as a possible secret weapon for Albo who after all maintained his support for Rudd during Gillard’s time . Rudds premature exit as PM was applauded by some ALP supporters but not by this ALP supporter. It’s very hard to become an ALP PM with the forces alligned against you, I still reckon his bizzarre downfall at the hands of the dopey NSW right ( bitar and arbib) is still a sore point up here.

  22. Cud Chewer at 6:53 pm

    Jaeger

    I was thinking. We could put the stranded aussies on cruise ships. Quarantine on the way.

    Those that survive get a free lottery ticket.

    Watcha think? 🙂

    Brilliant and OMG have I got the shipboard entertainment sorted. Layyyyyyyyyydeeees an Genilmun I present to you the perfect cruise ship entertainment………………………..

    Deputy PM belts out Viva Las Parkes
    https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/country-living/back-paddock/deputy-pm-belts-out-viva-las-parkes/news-story/32be61979a2e78c13d87e39d3ad661eb

  23. Bert
    I’ve only seen maggots used once (on a diabetic foot). Patients aren’t keen and there are better and faster ways if they can have the area numbed.

  24. BK

    What amazes me in the whole sordid debate about airborne transmission of covid was the first clear evidence of airborne transmission came very early – in the form of cruise ships.

    Here on PB the “whole sordid debate” was kept going as a way of “proving” that those who believed in aerosol transmission were using that only as a cover for racist beliefs, ie. you hate the Chinese, so it’s natural refuse to eat pork chow mein, or walk down Dixon St., and then blame it on the scientific definition of what an “aerosol” is. (Yeah… I know).

    Either that, or you’re a secret Alan Jones-listening, libertarian Trump supporter (all of which I was accused of in one individual marsupial post in February 2020).

    Elsewhere, denial of aerosol transmission was used to exonerate every single federal or state person involved in the Ruby Princess debacle, and then to cover for not only the establishment, but the stubborn maintenance of the catastrophic Hotel Quarantine system. It is now far too late to officially admit that the aerosol transmission debate was based on bad science, and has directly contributed to the clusterfucked state we find ourselves in now.

    We are told to rely on “The Science” but are not told what “The Science” actually is. Or, perhaps more accurately, we are told of changes in “The Science” lately on a close to diurnal basis. It’s little wonder that, with the chopping, changing and outright politically-convenient and arse-covering disinformation coming out of the medical profession of late, that citizens everywhere are taking their own fates into their own hands, and fuck “The Science”.

Comments Page 43 of 62
1 42 43 44 62

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *