Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

Comments Page 44 of 62
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  5. poroti says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 7:04 pm
    “Perhaps the Chinese ship is returning Harold Holt ?”

    Or perhaps Sam Dastyari?

  11. Brilliant and OMG have I got the shipboard entertainment sorted. Layyyyyyyyyydeeees an Genilmun I present to you the perfect cruise ship entertainment………………………..

    Eww… Seems more suited to a livestock carrier (ditto “Beastmaster” Christensen.)

  18. Anti-vaxers (Covid) led by another shonky “profession ”
    Chiropractors ( I believe their only skill is using an ice pac)….

    Vocal Anti-Vaccine Chiropractors Split the Profession

    In an episode titled “Are the ‘Vaccinated’ People Dangerous?” (they aren’t), he claimed that scientists had never identified the whole virus (they have), that the vaccines turned people into “modern-day zombies” who spewed spike proteins in every breath and body fluid (they don’t), and that vaccinated people could disrupt the menstrual cycles of women around them (they can’t).

    So, Dr. Baker said, he had a new policy: If any patients made “what I would consider a horribly poor decision to go get this shot,” he would not allow them inside his office for 30 days…

    On one side are people like him, who dismiss the overwhelming medical consensus that the vaccines are effective and safe. These chiropractors closely follow the ideas espoused more than a century ago by the profession’s founder, Daniel David Palmer, who rejected germ theory and believed that diseases were caused by spinal misalignments called subluxations that disrupted an innate life force.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/14/health/chiropractors-covid-vaccines.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  24. SA police commissioner sounding the warning bell. They r v concerned there will b an outbreak from the Tailem Bend exposure site. They won’t hesitate to pull the trigger on hard restrictions.

  27. A house two doors along was sold recently and today a furniture removalist’s van arrived to unload items. Here’s hoping that’s all they unloaded. [apprehensive emoji]

  28. ‘Diogenes says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 7:26 pm

    Bert
    I’ve only seen maggots used once (on a diabetic foot). Patients aren’t keen and there are better and faster ways if they can have the area numbed.’
    ____________________________
    I am not at all sure that gentles would stick to dead flesh. On a different topic my father told me that on the Burma Railway they sometimes put their legs in a river to allow small fish to eat off the dead material from tropical ulcers. The main medical tool for same, apparently, was scraping with a spoon, sans anaesthetic.

  29. @recon

    It better not be the last episode, only just got into it when they played the first 2 seasons back to back, if it is then that’s the final straw for foxtel as it was only worth it to follow this show

  31. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 8:44 pm

    @recon

    It better not be the last episode, only just got into it when they played the first 2 seasons back to back, if it is then that’s the final straw for foxtel as it was only worth it to follow this show
    ______
    Unfortunately it is the last show. 3 seasons is all we get. As Ray would say, nothing lasts for ever.

  33. Was a great show, lucky i recorded it so back to that start, absolutely brilliant Aussie TV up with the best around.

  35. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 8:55 pm

    Was a great show, lucky i recorded it so back to that start, absolutely brilliant Aussie TV up with the best around.
    ________
    A proper Melbourne hitman moving to Sydney to take out the spivs, pimps and clowns up there. What could be better. 😛

  40. I know somebody posted this previously but it bears repeating to illustrate what sort of person Morrison is.

    Scott Morrison has blamed Australia’s top doctors advising on immunisation for the warnings applied to AstraZeneca, and the resulting slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines.

    In an interview with 2GB Radio on Wednesday, the prime minister said “very cautious” decisions by the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisations (Atagi) had slowed the rollout “considerably” and “put us behind”.

    Atagi’s co-chair, professor Allen Cheng, pushed back by noting in comments to Guardian Australia that its role is to provide advice, but the federal government remains responsible for making decisions and the vaccination rollout.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/14/scott-morrison-blames-atagi-doctors-for-australias-slow-covid-vaccine-rollout

  41. ________
    A proper Melbourne hitman moving to Sydney to take out the spivs, pimps and clowns up there. What could be better.
    ________

    Absolutely, as based on fact, if you read any Aussie true(ish) crime, Melbourne was the place to source proper hit men or so the like of Chopper would make us believe

  43. There are some things you see and hear at times that leave you thinking you must have passed through the looking glass into bizzaro land. Such was the case for me tonight.

    As I occasionally do, I decided to take one for the side and tuned in to hear what Alan Jones was raving on about; and lo and behold there he was with Bill Shorten and both of them were tearing into Scott Morrison. Not exactly something you’d expect to see every day.

    Morrison wasn’t there of course, but wherever he was, I reckon his ears would have been burning very brightly. The two of them agreed that as a prime minister he is an absolute dud. Amazing stuff.

  45. Will Wally Wallpaper fess up and now admit his ramping if this lemon demonstrates his uselessness? He could announce the app is useless, and people should delete it. Will he?

    ‘The federal government’s much-heralded COVIDSafe app is not even being used in New South Wales during the latest outbreak and is yet to identify any new close contacts this year.

    NSW recorded 89 new local cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday after recording 116 on Monday. There have been more than 750 cases as part of the latest outbreak, which began last month.

    NSW health authorities are now managing thousands of close contacts who have been identified manually by contact tracers.

    But the federal government’s contact tracing app COVIDSafe is not even being used by the health authorities, with no information from confirmed cases sent to the national database, let alone any new close contacts identified.

    “Experience to date in NSW has shown that the COVIDSafe app may be most useful where case interviews have not been successful in identifying contacts. It has not been necessary to use the COVIDSafe app with any recent cases in NSW in 2021,” a NSW Health spokesperson told InnovationAus.

    “NSW Health works with each case to reconstruct their movements and who they may have come into contact with, aided by a range of sources of information including venue data collected by the Service NSW app, reward card data, membership cards, and in some cases, credit card reports.”

    COVIDSafe also wasn’t used at all during Victoria’s recent COVID-19 outbreak, with health minister Martin Foley saying he would have heard about its use because it would have been “such a rare occurrence”.

    https://www.innovationaus.com/covidsafe-not-used-in-latest-nsw-outbreak/

  46. Bystander says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 9:10 pm

    As I occasionally do, I decided to take one for the side and tuned in to hear what Alan Jones was raving on about; and lo and behold there he was with Bill Shorten and both of them were tearing into Scott Morrison. Not exactly something you’d expect to see every day.

    Morrison wasn’t there of course, but wherever he was, I reckon his ears would have been burning very brightly. The two of them agreed that as a prime minister he is an absolute dud. Amazing stuff.
    ____________
    I love it when Labor frontbenchers go on SAD. My favorite was when Kimberley Kitching hugged Andrew Bolt and presented him with a birthday cake.

    (the birthday cake may have been an invention. But the hug was real)

  47. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 9:11 pm

    Always thought Acho and Pando of Two Hands kid of summed up the Sydney scene
    ____________
    Chopper’s words:

    I don’t know why Sydney crooks don’t stick to what they know best, pimping for whores and selling drugs to kids. Every time you see a Sydney crook on television, he is either lying in the street after being killed by an imported Melbourne hitman, or giving Crown evidence against some poor bastard. The biggest and most feared underworld killer Sydney ever saw was Chris Flannery, and he was from Melbourne, and an idiot at that.

  48. Socrates @ #1119 Wednesday, July 14th, 2021 – 6:47 pm

    “Rohan Smith@Ro_Smith · 6m
    BREAKING: South Australian police say the Tailem Bend Shell petrol station where three infectious removalists from Sydney attended on Friday night had 76 credit card transactions and only 25 QR code check-ins. More than 118 close contacts already identified.“

    That is a large failure of the service station to enforce requiring QR codes. This highlights the arbitrary nature of fining people for non-compliance. Businesses in Adelaide were fined for far less breaches than that.

    Though the idea that people in Fairfield can be fined for moving outside without testing, yet requiring them to queue for six hours for a test, surely wins first prize for arbitrary covid injustice.

    I thought it would have been a far smarter idea to test everyone in the Eastern Suburbs every 3 days, whether worker or resident, at the start of the outbreak.

  50. Bystander says:
    Wednesday, July 14, 2021 at 9:10 pm
    There are some things you see and hear at times that leave you thinking you must have passed through the looking glass into bizzaro land. Such was the case for me tonight.

    As I occasionally do, I decided to take one for the side and tuned in to hear what Alan Jones was raving on about; and lo and behold there he was with Bill Shorten and both of them were tearing into Scott Morrison. Not exactly something you’d expect to see every day.

    Morrison wasn’t there of course, but wherever he was, I reckon his ears would have been burning very brightly. The two of them agreed that as a prime minister he is an absolute dud. Amazing stuff.
    ______________________
    Littlefinger never rests. Albo’s opponents may not even give him 12 months as PM before he is fragged.

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