The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
John Hewson holds up the St George-Illawarra Dragons as a model to teach Morrison how to deal with bad behaviour and breaching of standards within an organisation.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-the-dragons-could-teach-the-pm-about-confronting-bad-behaviour-20210714-p589ia.html
Sarah Martin writes that a former federal president of the Nationals, Christine Ferguson, has issued a call to arms to young women in the party, saying they need to speak up about their bad experiences to drive cultural change, while also criticising the party for losing touch with its grassroots members.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/15/former-nationals-president-says-recycling-barnaby-joyce-may-lead-to-more-women-leaving-party
“Just who is this man named Morrison that he needs Murdoch’s defence?”, asks John Lord.
https://theaimn.com/just-who-is-this-man-named-morrison-that-he-needs-murdochs-defence/
Michael Pascoe laments the poor ethical standards of the Morrison government. He goes to considerable lengths to prosecute his argument.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/07/15/carpork-rorts-scott-morrison/
A major hospital in the centre of Sydney’s coronavirus outbreak has been forced to postpone all non-urgent surgery after a patient tested positive to COVID-19.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-hospital-covid-scare-as-south-west-s-testing-systems-struggle-20210714-p589ot.html
The federal government is getting quite sensitive over claims of unequal treatment of NSW and Victoria.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/petulant-and-nonsense-federal-government-hits-back-at-victoria-s-claims-of-unfair-treatment-20210714-p589ir.html
While Victoria bickers over the Commonwealth’s financial assistance to NSW, it too might get to test the new funding package if it can’t control a new outbreak of virus cases, says Jennifer Hewett.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/states-down-for-the-covid-count-20210714-p589po
Use our common sense? Use your own, Premier, and tell us what ‘essential’ means, exclaims Alexandra Smith.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/use-our-common-sense-use-your-own-premier-and-tell-us-what-essential-means-20210714-p589pt.html
The SMH editorial urges Sydney to lift its game or the lockdown could drag on forever.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/unless-sydney-lifts-its-game-lockdown-could-drag-on-forever-20210714-p589q9.html
Paul Karp reports that Scott Morrison’s decision to blame the government’s immunisation advisers for delays in the Covid-19 vaccine rollout has been labelled “unfair” and “disappointing” by a recent member of ATAGI.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/15/not-time-for-blame-game-former-atagi-representative-says-morrisons-astrazeneca-comments-unfair
Alan Kohler, sick and tired of the government’s unrelenting spin, says it’s little wonder the Morrison government is paying cash directly to employees stood down in the Sydney lockdown, with a cap and time limit, after the way JobKeeper was plundered last year.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/07/15/lockdown-jobkeeper-scott-morrison/
Now ICU nurses from across Sydney are opening up about what it’s like working on the wards with COVID patients. They’re pleading with Australians to fight off their pandemic fatigue and take it seriously. The city is struggling under the weight of the current outbreak, and the rest of the nation is waiting patiently to see how far incursions may have spread, writes Cait Kelly.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/07/14/icu-nurses-covid-sydney/
The AFR’s editorial says there should be greater transparency about the health advice that for now is set to keep 5 million Sydneysiders locked down at least until the end of July.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/release-health-advice-on-sydney-lockdown-20210713-p589bw
Greg Sheridan sensibly declares that lockdowns work, and we have no alternative. He says suppression of the virus until we get vaccinated is the right policy. It is a mystery why even now we won’t do the most basic and obvious thing to achieve it – building dedicated quarantine facilities.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/lockdowns-work-and-we-have-no-alternative/news-story/c609f7d0051bffeb0c3714b3e437c76e
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and her advisers knew what this Delta variant could do long before the virus travelled from the city’s east to the west. Yet their handling of COVID-19 hotspots early in this outbreak was relaxed – until the virus hit a community that they had difficulty understanding.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/clumsy-decisions-have-left-fairfield-feeling-abandoned-and-misunderstood-20210714-p589or.html
According to the Burnett Institute, the emergence of the Delta variant, and future variants, will change the way Australia – and the world – contains the pandemic.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/how-will-variants-change-our-response-to-covid-19-20210713-p589au.html
Overnight the Victorian government has tightened COVID-19 restrictions around face masks after 11 new cases emerged in Melbourne’s north and west from two separate outbreaks, and the number of potentially high-risk exposure sites swelled.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/senior-victorian-ministers-consider-new-covid-19-restrictions-20210714-p589p2.html
A COVID-induced rancour that has broken out between Sydney’s commercial radio shock jocks and the Sky News night-time ravers over Sydney’s lockdown would be funny if it were not so serious, writes Dennis Muller who says the current right-wing shock jock stoush reveals the awful truth about COVID, politics and media ratings.
https://theconversation.com/right-wing-shock-jock-stoush-reveals-the-awful-truth-about-covid-politics-and-media-ratings-164489
South Australians have been put on notice to follow COVID-19 rules and regulations or face tougher restrictions in response to a potential local outbreak of the virus. Police Commissioner Grant Stevens says a meeting on Thursday will consider the current situation in SA after three exposure sites were identified linked to infected removalists who came into the state from Sydney.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7341408/sa-on-notice-over-potential-virus-cases/?cs=9676
Speaker Tony Smith – who has been battling to force better behaviour in the House of Representatives on MPs including Scott Morrison – has announced he will not contest the next election, writes Michelle Grattan.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-speaker-tony-smith-proponent-of-order-in-the-house-to-retire-at-election-164494
Jess Irvine posits that we don’t need to resuscitate JobKeeper to protect our economy.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/no-we-don-t-need-to-resuscitate-jobkeeper-to-protect-our-economy-20210714-p589pk.html
Instead of heeding early warnings that the reef was at risk, the government is working hard to ensure it isn’t embarrassed by an adverse UNESCO ruling next week, writes biology professor Lesley Hughes. (As usual, Morrison is treating a situation as a marketing exercise.)
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/coalition-fighting-to-stop-great-barrier-reef-being-declared-in-danger-20210714-p589kk.html
Environment Minister Susan Ley says she was “blindsided” by UNESCO’s recommendation to declare the Great Barrier Reef ‘in danger’. Prime Minister Morrison was “appalled”. Their responses reflect a concern that the Reef’s political potency may be re-ignited. Then to top it off they blamed the Chinese, exclaims Rowland Hill.
https://johnmenadue.com/after-many-years-great-barrier-reef-in-danger-listing-shouldnt-come-as-a-surprise/
Feel free to read Peta Credlin’s piece in the Australian urging against what she describes as identity politics.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/say-no-to-a-voice-for-identity-politics/news-story/f94694efc6cc0b5a511370823a648e93
Frank Brennan complains that George Brandis as Attorney-General started a round of appointments to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT) and to the Federal Circuit Court which has continued to adversely impact the fair and efficient resolution of refugee and migration cases.
https://johnmenadue.com/frank-brennan-the-fraying-of-judicial-nerves-in-migration-cases/
Victorian Liberals will force new members to provide photo identification to join as part of an internal shake-up spurred by a scathing report.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberals-agree-to-new-rules-to-stamp-out-branch-stacking-20210714-p589qc.html
Blaming migrants for Australia’s lower wages growth is easy but too simplistic, explains Greg Jericho.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2021/jul/15/blaming-migrants-for-australias-lower-wages-growth-is-easy-but-too-simplistic
Costello exaggerated the costs of ageing. Why won’t the Coalition face up to the costs of the climate crisis, asks Richard Denniss.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/14/costello-exaggerated-the-costs-of-ageing-why-wont-the-coalition-face-up-to-the-costs-of-the-climate-crisis
David Crowe and Mike Foley say that two Liberal MPs have called on the federal government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to “net zero” levels by 2050 in a new warning about climate change, taking on conservatives within the Nationals who are holding out against the target. Meanwhile, a Liberal-dominated committee has rejected consideration of Zali Steggall’s bill.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-mps-call-for-net-zero-by-2050-but-steggall-s-climate-bill-rejected-by-committee-20210714-p589mr.html
The Amazon rainforest is now emitting more carbon dioxide than it is able to absorb, scientists have confirmed for the first time. The emissions amount to a billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, according to a study. The giant forest had previously been a carbon sink, absorbing the emissions driving the climate crisis, but is now causing its acceleration, researchers said.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/14/amazon-rainforest-now-emitting-more-co2-than-it-absorbs
Julie Hare reports that a delegation of high-profile university chancellors was rebuffed in efforts to meet Scott Morrison to discuss the crisis unfolding in the higher education sector as international student revenues dive, with the official tally of job losses now near 15,000.
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/education/university-chancellors-on-urgent-mission-rebuffed-by-pm-20210714-p589p5
Michaela Whitbourn tells us that media outlets being sued for defamation by Ben Roberts-Smith have asked the Federal Court to hear evidence urgently from four Afghan witnesses in Kabul amid a deterioration in the security situation, but the war veteran’s lawyers say it would be too risky to hold a hearing during Sydney’s COVID-19 outbreak.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/media-outlets-want-urgent-hearing-for-afghan-witnesses-in-ben-roberts-smith-trial-20210714-p589is.html
Nick Toscano and Mike Foley report that manufacturers are warning the federal government is failing to deliver its “gas-fired” recovery, as rising prices of the fossil fuel put jobs at risk.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/nothing-effective-is-being-done-business-warns-pm-s-cheap-gas-push-is-falling-short-20210713-p5896d.html
As NSW plunges back into lockdown, the banks have been warned to prepare for negative interest rates. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank has quietly conceded the banks have not lent the $188 billion pandemic stimulus, instead parking it in their $314b war-chest at the central bank earning no interest. Michael West on looming storm-clouds.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/money-for-nothing-debts-for-free-the-rba-the-banks-and-a-negative-interest-rates-warning/
Organisational psychologist Amy Zadow tells us how the creep of digital communications into our entire lives is not as harmless as we think, particularly as it applies to work demands.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/always-on-employees-at-risk-of-poor-mental-health-stroke-research-20210714-p589jo.html
Thousands of truckies are pushing for strike action after one of the country’s biggest transport companies proposed a new workplace agreement they say will drag down standards in Australia’s deadliest industry.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/07/14/toll-twu-dispute-strike-action-truckies/
As vaccine hesitancy gave way to desperation, Malaysia renegotiated its deal with Pfizer and now it delivers more than 400,000 shots a day.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/crushed-by-covid-malaysia-now-has-one-of-the-world-s-fastest-vaccination-rates-20210714-p589k4.html
Indonesia records its highest increase in COVID cases –– and numbers are likely to rise again before they fall, explains epidemiologist Dicky Budiman.
https://theconversation.com/indonesia-records-its-highest-increase-in-covid-cases-and-numbers-are-likely-to-rise-again-before-they-fall-164063
A Catholic priest earns not only a nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”, but he gets a stay in prison.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/priest-convicted-of-26-counts-of-abusing-students-at-southern-highlands-school-20210714-p589of.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
David Pope
Andrew Dyson
Matt Golding
Cathy Wilcox
Peter Broelman
Glen Le Lievre
https://twitter.com/i/status/1415154692456271875
Johannes Leak
Dionne Gain
John Shakespeare
From the US
A Clayton’s solution. Just an opportunity for a mate to make some money. How can an arrogant, bullying personality undergo a sea change in an hour? And will they even listen, if the lecturer is a female?
Key points:
The government has released a tender seeking an organisation to deliver its sexual harassment training program for politicians
The documents show the training would be face-to-face, optional and run for just one hour for parliamentarians
Trainers have also been told to prepare for learners with little knowledge of occupational health and safety
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-15/parliamentary-sexual-harassment-workplace-training-optional/100293784
Thanks BK! Today’s Rowe is oddly disturbing.
Alan Kohler, sick and tired of the government’s unrelenting spin, says it’s little wonder the Morrison government is paying cash directly to employees stood down in the Sydney lockdown, with a cap and time limit, after the way JobKeeper was plundered last year.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/07/15/lockdown-jobkeeper-scott-morrison/
And I bet that was NSW Treasurer, Dominic Perrottet’s idea.
C@t:
One thing that really strikes me about the NSW govt is how their policy making is steeped in political ideology, rather than evidence. It’s been so evident with this Covid outbreak: yet another press conference yesterday where the Premier was relentlessly quizzed about the nonsensical refusal to define ‘essential’ and how that is having unintended consequences for people. Even causing the further spread of the virus.
Not even the Barnett Liberal govt was this bad.
So angry that the LNP government makes more effort to prevent the Reef from being declared Endangered, than it has ever done to prevent its destruction. Marketing is all they do.
I see Leak being a dangerous idiot again..
Cud Chewer @ #553 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 7:22 am
He’s not the sharpest tool in the shed. Simply inculcated from an early age with a conservative disposition by Singo, his dad and the satellites around them.
C@t
Surely we can reintroduce electric shock treatment for Leak’s condition?
‘fess,
There’s a real ideological battle going on in the NSW government. Like ducks, they glide along but underneath the water there is furious movement. The Moderates are still surviving in the NSW Coalition, led by Matt Kean, and ably so too. I think he has absorbed the knowledge that NSW is a fairly progressive state when all is said and done and he listens to the people rather than trying to impose his ideology on them. But it’s a battle. Terrible land clearing laws but other admirable outcomes for the environment, again also with the Nationals chiming in for their constituencies of Big Agriculture and Mining. That’s just one example, but they have to contend with the Opus Dei acolytes as far as social policy is concerned, and I think that’s why we haven’t seen hide nor hair of a Voluntary Assisted Dying legislative package in NSW. On the other hand the Treasurer does do savvy economics with a Catholic flavour, as you have seen with the assistance package. Favouring the little guy over the fat cats. 🙂
Cud Chewer @ #555 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 7:25 am
I think the electrodes would slip off because he’s been buttered up by the conservatives all his life. 😀
lizzie @ #552 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 7:16 am
Simply because it would make for a devastating Labor ad in the election campaign. I’d say that’s the sum total of it.
Goddam it, I replied on twitter to an anti vaxxer and now my stream is filled with anti vaxxers….
C@t:
It’s immensely frustrating seeing how their ideology is having a deleterious effect on public health and public safety. You just have to compare with the states which have functioning, competent governments to see how this Covid outbreak should’ve been handled.
When is the next state election? These guys need to be thrown out.
Umm..
There’s also twisted and corrupt water policy. Backdowns over support for pumped hydro projects. And of course the insidious influence of Transurban and its motorways and also the fact that the roads people still have far too much power and influence and there’s been no state-level initiative to investigate the full social and economic benefit of true high speed rail. Instead, the same miserable old bastards fighting over band-aid “fast rail” schemes.
lizzie @ #558 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 7:35 am
They might have to clean their houses themselves! Mow the carefully manicured lawns and pull some weeds out! Or buy a plunger and some Draino!
Lizzie
That sounds like a poor excuse because certain workers can be allowed to travel beyond the 5km.
zoomster @ #560 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 7:37 am
I learned to make my comments and never check my replies on Twitter a long time ago. I am much more Zen as a result. 🙂
I should bring the same approach to PB I guess. 😉
I also like to check my followers’ feeds as well and unfollow them if they change from being reasonable to being idiots. Or, if someone has followed me who is antithetical to my pov I don’t follow them back.
Confessions @ #561 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 7:38 am
I bet they won’t be thrown out. They have found the secret sauce. ‘Days of Gladys Berejiklian’s Love Life’. 😉
One of our local lads is off to Tokyo as a long distance runner.
I once asked his mother why all of her children were into running.
She said that, when they were little, going for a run was the only way she could get some time to herself.
They followed her.
Heck no, much easier to go the BoJo. BoJo’s waffly crap re the impending ‘grand opening rules’ described as as ” swapping legal restrictions for ‘moral’ enforcement ” and ‘Turning a me problem into a you problem.’
I’m not really blaming MSW, but am I allowed to blame Gladys? Frydenberg didn’t hesitate to blame Dan.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-15/victoria-covid-exposure-sites-july-15/100294778
When is the next state election? These guys need to be thrown out.
The next NSW election happens March 2023.
😀
Jeebus. Did Gen Milley save US democracy?
“Fairfield is a dormitory suburb for the service sector, the dunny divers, cleaners & tradies that service places they can’t afford to live in. Gladys’ reluctance to limit travel to 5km & a proper shut down is more about not inconveniencing the wealthy suburbs with dirty bog-holes”
Those tradies are probably actually more essential than many (including myself) who get to stay at home at our full salaries though.
Waiting for Frydenburg and other Victorian Federal LNP Ministers and MPs to attack Victorian Andrew’s Government for latest COVID outbreak.
I also like to check my followers’ feeds as well and unfollow them if they change from being reasonable to being idiots. Or, if someone has followed me who is antithetical to my pov I don’t follow them back.
——————
At the kids netball games they should segregate the supporters into Left and Right bays with a special section for the ultra libertarians who can’t stop talking about how much sense their POV makes if we all only open our minds and think it through (put the antivax peeps in with them).
Only problem with that is – you’ll probably get more fights.
The Victorian Liberals obviously have a political death wish. O’Brien on the possibility of a short, sharp lockdown due to the virus imported from Gladys’ jurisdiction:
Hope Labor has an election campaign ad which focusses heavily on the rorts, corruption and dishonesty of this ‘government’
Hope it’s vicious and clever.
Has anyone asked Scotty who made the stupid decision not to buy the tests? Think of the advantage it would make to all the people lining up for hours, late for work. Effect on the economy? Nothing to do with me, shrugs Scotty.
Fairfield is a dormitory suburb for the service sector, the dunny divers, cleaners & tradies that service places they can’t afford to live in. Gladys’ reluctance to limit travel to 5km & a proper shut down is more about not inconveniencing the wealthy suburbs with dirty bog-holes
Under the 10 km rule, someone from Fairfield is confined to the Western and SW suburbs of Sydney, West of about Olympic Park: https://2kmfromhome.com/10km
Too simplistic Greg ? But bloody relavent. Two of my previous workplaces bigly time rorted the system and they are waay not orphans and behaved waaay better than some. Both supposedly respectable international firms . They hired people on various visas that were way over qualified for the jobs they were hired for but paid them at the lower grade than they work they were given warranted. The migrants put up with it as they had to in order to remain in Aus. Not a happy work force when they soon discovered they were on ‘burger flipper salaries’ to do a ‘cordon bleu’ task. But tough titties it was accept it or bye bye visa. So after a couple of years they were off and in came the next batch of ‘exploited’ . So among the ‘locals’ who is going to kick up about $s when they know that they could end up turfed and a ‘cheaper’ visa holder imported ? Meanwhile of course locals with the same qualification were effectively locked out of the job unless they were prepared to work at lower rates. Two good work places turned to shit holes. Not by the visa holders mind you but the fecking management who screwed both local and migrant workers.
Mundo
If the ALP don’t go on the attack they will be making the same mistake they made in 2019.
The vic liberals have been carrying on against lockdowns from the beginning of pandemic. Despite the ruby princess fiasco, they always make it about politics as far as Victoria is concerned.
Undermining at every step each and every day.
It is frickin exhausting.
Simon Katich @ #573 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 8:17 am
Sounds like it to me:
https://podcast.thebulwark.com/michael-bender-the-inside-story-of-how-trump-lost
poroti,
And the management were on cordon bleu salaries I bet!
Israel vacccination discussion on RN breakfaat right now
The NSW removalists have not been forthcoming with all the information as to their movements.
It appears due to fact that they have breached their work permit.
Residents of the apartment obviously saw the removalists not wearing masks and was probably confirmed via cctv.
This is very frustrating as precious time is lost in the actual work of contact tracing.
Sigh….
This is concerning – hopefully it might turn out to be a false positive.
mundo
Secretly hire David Rowe. Cut loose I reckon he could whip up some devastating ads in all forms of media.
Removalists are considered an essential service. But they need to follow red zone rules. Which they did not. And here we are.
mundo @ #578 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 8:28 am
And I hope they are just biding their time in order to get the best bang for their buck in the election campaign.
Top US general warned of ‘Reichstag moment’ in Trump’s turbulent last days
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/14/donald-trump-reichstag-moment-general-mark-milley-book
Victoria @ #591 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 8:39 am
I keep trying to think of some sort of description for them like ‘Typhoid Mary’ because that’s what they did, drove all over leaving a trail of Delta behind them.
Blaming migrants for Australia’s lower wages growth is easy but too simplistic, explains Greg Jericho.
We don’t blame migrants we blame the unscrupulous business owners who exploits them and the Government that uses immigration as an instrument to suppress worker wages, conditions and bargaining power.
How much more misery can the Morrison government inflict on Australians?
C@t
Their attitude stinks. They were supposed to wear masks at the very least.
When moving goods, they are to do so when others are not in lifts etc.
They followed none of these rules.
Then to top it off they weren’t forthcoming with their movements and our health officials were saying it from the get go.
They initially were being polite and saying that due to these people being symptomatic,it can affect their recall etc.
Yesterday the health officials were saying that the removalists were deliberately not being forthcoming with this information.