Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

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  1. Quasar

    I’ll definitely chase it up on iview, but it will have to be on a day when I start in a calm mood. From comments, I think I shall find it only too close to my own experience.

  2. So Morrison, and his enormous spin team have had months to find an excuse, any excuse….and suddenly in mid July they decide to blame it on the vaccine approval in January (despite the problem being that he didn’t secure enough vaccines mid to late 2020)…
    Pathetic…and the MSM don’t seem to be buying it at all.
    Interesting times.

  3. Good lord this federal government is useless. Sense the white hot anger out there about the non-availability of Pfizer.

    This is what happens when you elect a bunch of intellectually D-grade culture warriors, Straya. They’re only interested in posturing, not governing.

  4. Quoll
    The Greens disgraceful policy of letting the virus into the country and next they will want to let the removerlists off but you focus on the Mineral Council.

  5. UK Cartoons:








    Netherlands – (seeing a very rapid covid spike):
    “New License Plate” State of affairs #COVID19 #coronapolicy #Rutte #deJonge #sorry

    Covid & De Jonge

  6. Lizzie @9.33,

    Agree these people won’t listen , unless there are clear orders with consequences.
    The optics of Gladys pleading shows weakness and anyone who has had kids knows you don’t leave any doubt/loopholes if you really want results.
    Short, dot-point , easy to remember /understand…people don’t have time to check the websites or listen to long-winded press conferences.
    Short concentration spans and very busy lives need to be factored in.

  7. Chuckle

    @TheySaid01
    ·
    Jul 11
    Reporter – Gladys, will schools have to stay closed for longer than 4 days?

    Gladys – purple flowers are pretty on pancakes when eaten in Egypt in February

    Reporter – thanks for your answer

  8. ‘Quasar says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 9:37 am

    Haven’t seen many comments re ‘Ms Represented’ , the excellent ABC series available on Iview.’
    ___________________________________________
    I watched with some interest. IMO, it was light on.

    There was nothing at all new in it. There was an almost complete lack of hard hitting stats in it. Why not a diagram of the proportion of female MPs in various parties, for example?

    What DID surprise me was that they all seemed shocked at how racist Australia was in the early 20th Century. What did they expect? Frontier massacres were still all the go then.

  9. From BK:s Dawn Patrol

    Michael Pascoe laments the poor ethical standards of the Morrison government. He goes to considerable lengths to prosecute his argument.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/07/15/carpork-rorts-scott-morrison/


    Paragraph from Pascoe article

    “Serving the Australian people as ministers and assistant ministers is an honour and comes with expectations to act at all times to the highest possible standards of probity.”

    No, that’s not Anthony Albanese grandstanding. It is what Scott Morrison wrote as the foreword to the Statement of Ministerial Standards he adopted when he became Prime Minister in 2018.

    In light of various rorts and scandals, it seems those standards have been observed in the breach as often as not.

    Wow just wow isn’t

  10. a r @ #659 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 9:59 am

    None of the current vaccines are 100% effective against infection.

    A fully vaccinated nurse working on the COVID-19 ward at Sydney’s Westmead Hospital has tested positive to the virus and NSW Health is conducting urgent investigations into the source of the infection.

    In a statement, a spokesman for NSW Health said a staff member at the hospital tested positive yesterday during routine surveillance and is now isolating at home. The nurse did not have any symptoms.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-nsw-and-victorian-covid-19-cases-and-exposure-sites-grow-masks-back-on-in-melbourne-20210715-p589uh.html#update

  11. Ven @ #664 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 10:03 am

    From BK:s Dawn Patrol

    Michael Pascoe laments the poor ethical standards of the Morrison government. He goes to considerable lengths to prosecute his argument.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/07/15/carpork-rorts-scott-morrison/


    “Serving the Australian people as ministers and assistant ministers is an honour and comes with expectations to act at all times to the highest possible standards of probity.”

    No, that’s not Anthony Albanese grandstanding. It is what Scott Morrison wrote as the foreword to the Statement of Ministerial Standards he adopted when he became Prime Minister in 2018.

    Wow just wow isn’t

    He talks the talk but he doesn’t walk the walk.

  12. Socrates says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 9:12 am
    SK
    We are watching it closely re Tailem Bend. Xanthippe says SA Health have already isolated (as risks) most of the close contacts. We shall see.

    Anyone know anything about this tweet? Interesting if true.

    “Bruh
    @Bruh11432599
    #BREAKING Newspoll is predicting a 9% swing to Labor in the west. That’ll see Labor gaining 4 seats. Namely Swan, Hasluck, Stirling and Porter’s seat of Pearce.

    Morrison is in trouble. “

    No-one will be winning Stirling. It is to be abolished.

  13. For years the Liberals have dismissed certain jobs but now pretend all jobs are important and that is why the cultural wars are BS.

  14. Player One says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:02 am

    Disagree:
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/keythingstoknow.html

    COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective at preventing COVID-19 disease, especially severe illness and death.
    COVID-19 vaccines reduce the risk of people spreading the virus that causes COVID-19.
    You may have side effects after vaccination. These are normal and should go away in a few days.
    It typically takes 2 weeks after vaccination for the body to build protection (immunity) against the virus that causes COVID-19. You are not fully vaccinated until 2 weeks after the second dose of a 2-dose vaccine or 2 weeks after a single-dose vaccine.
    Learn how to find a COVID-19 vaccine so you can get it as soon as you can.
    After you are fully vaccinated, you can resume activities that you did before the pandemic. Learn more about what you can do when you have been fully vaccinated.

    SO who is correct?

  15. “AFL sources said the Bombers and Roos would fly out on Thursday afternoon and play their match in Queensland on either Saturday or Sunday, most likely at Metricon Stadium on the Gold Coast. ”

    Why are football clubs allowed to roam Australia during lockdown ?

  16. Torchbearer 9.42
    “the MSM don’t seem to be buying it at all.”
    The largest incidences of incompetence, blatant rorting, theft, deceit, all with total lack of transparency, would have to be the job keeper payments to businesses.
    MSM and liberals belted the leather off the pink batts football.
    The amounts of money going to businesses should have the voting public speechless.
    Instead the PM, the treasurer, the liberal party and the MSM are the only ones speechless.

  17. Zerlosays:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:14 am
    “AFL sources said the Bombers and Roos would fly out on Thursday afternoon and play their match in Queensland on either Saturday or Sunday, most likely at Metricon Stadium on the Gold Coast. ”

    Why are football clubs allowed to roam Australia during lockdown ?
    ____________________________________________
    Because they are tested so much more often than anyone else, we know who they are, they aren’t let out into the community, they get set up into hubs which are effectively Quarantine hotels – where players and their families are kept strictly separated from the general public.


  18. a r @ #659 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 9:59 am

    None of the current vaccines are 100% effective against infection.

    I know a family, where Husband and wife and their 2 children are vaccinated with 2 doses of 2 different types of vaccines. One of the children does not live with the family and is a Doctor, who worked COVID ICU. She did not get COVID.
    Out of the other 3 who live together, the woman got it, stayed in isolation for 14 days and fully recovered, the other 2 did not get it. And none of the doses is Pfizer.

  19. Andrew Gold
    They needed 4 more columns in the table, ‘In Hospital’ and ‘In ICU’ . That would tell a very different story. Although it is surprising that the infections are pretty much in line with pop %

  20. Alpha Zero says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:17 am

    Being tested more doesn’t make them not vulnerable to testing.

    Just like the nurses at the hospitals. Sport is NOT essential work.

  21. Zerlosays:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:19 am
    Alpha Zero says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:17 am

    Being tested more doesn’t make them not vulnerable to testing.

    Just like the nurses at the hospitals. Sport is NOT essential work.
    _____________________
    Agree – it is far more important than that 😉

    I reckon it costs the AFL quite a bit to maintain this special status

  22. Quoll

    Woodside being a corporate donor and its production of materials for schools (which won’t be used) are two separate issues.

    Now, if a government of any stripe mandates that the material MUST be used in classes, you’d have a case.

    Most companies produce educational packs of one kind of another, as do most government departments. There’s nothing strange about that.

    Most of these educational packs promote the agenda of whoever produced them. There’s nothing strange about that.

    Very few of them get used because they’re rarely designed in a way that means that they’re of any use in a classroom.

    Schools are awash with this kind of material.


  23. Reconsays:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:00 am
    I am hearing that a 5 day Melbourne lockdown is imminent.

    Like the ‘Soup Nazi’ in Seinfeld, The Delta variant is saying “NEXT”!

  24. Evangelicals bigly backed 3 amigos – Trump, Scrott and Bolsonaro. Now what was that about judging people by their friends ? Works in both directions in the above.

  25. boerwar:

    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:13 am

    [‘Mavis

    That is sad news. So sad.

    https://www.healthline.com/health/is-hiccups-a-sign-of-coronavirus'%5D

    They’re reporting the hiccups as having a connection to a bowel condition he developed after he was shot a couple of years ago in an assassination attempt.

    ____________________________________

    Zerlo:

    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:16 am

    [‘Payback is a b!tch.’]

    Indeed and he’s got a lot coming to him, his support in freefall.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-bolsonaro-disapproval-rating-rises-all-time-high-poll-2021-07-08/

  26. Good Morning

    The LNP have shown voters how bad they are at management in a visceral way that’s scarring a generation.

    Add on the news from the EU today hitting exports and we see a pattern emerging.

    No amount of name calling like Green Stain or the reactionary extreme Greens by the Murdoch press is going to change that reality. Especially as the Murdoch press suffers credibilty loss.

    Even the casual coal workers are going to be worried about the loss of markets equalling jobs loss.

  27. boerwar @ #2322 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 7:21 am

    One of the features of China’s foreign ‘aid’ is that it involves lots of Chinese workers actually doing the work. This can breed local resentment. In Pakistan local resentment can be fatal.

    I am not sure what has happened here. The China side came in wolf warrior snarling on it being a bomb initially but now seems to be backpeddling to a softer line.

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202107/1228691.shtml

    One of the features of most countries foreign aid is that it benefits businesses from their own countries.

  28. Queensland reports three new locally acquired cases

    Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is speaking now.

    She says Queensland has five new cases — two in hotel quarantine and three locally acquired.

    They are a 12-year-old who flew in from Sydney, their parent, and a fully vaccinated worker at the Brisbane international airport.

    Palaszczuk said the 12-year-old boy completed their quarantine in Sydney then flew into Brisbane on flight QF544 on 9 July.

    They then developed symptoms, got tested, and tested positive.

  29. It is amazing what having a few hundred thousand covid casualties can do !

    Vaccine Support Reaches 94% in Brazil

    https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/scienceandhealth/2021/07/vaccine-support-reaches-94-in-brazil.shtml?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsen
    Speaking of Pollbludging. Hot off the press, some good polling news from Brazil.

    Lula Has 46% of Intended Vote, and Bolsonaro, 25%
    Petista opens 21 points ahead of the president and extends advantage in the 2nd round

    https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/brazil/2021/07/lula-has-46-of-intended-vote-and-bolsonaro-25-say-datafolha-of-2022-presidential-elections.shtml?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsen

  30. BW

    What DID surprise me was that they all seemed shocked at how racist Australia was in the early 20th Century. What did they expect? Frontier massacres were still all the go then.

    ___________________________________

    How could they know? They all went to school before the teaching of ‘black armband’ history became a thing.

  31. Re: the dawn patrol:

    “ Greg Sheridan sensibly declares that lockdowns work, and we have no alternative. He says suppression of the virus until we get vaccinated is the right policy. It is a mystery why even now we won’t do the most basic and obvious thing to achieve it – building dedicated quarantine facilities.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/lockdowns-work-and-we-have-no-alternative/news-story/c609f7d0051bffeb0c3714b3e437c76e”

    ________

    Isn’t it amazing that once there isn’t a Labor Government to criticise, that the ‘wiser’ old hands in the Rupeverse start saying sensible things. … 15 months too late.

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