Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

Comments Page 49 of 62
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  1. TPOF says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:40 am

    BW

    What DID surprise me was that they all seemed shocked at how racist Australia was in the early 20th Century. What did they expect? Frontier massacres were still all the go then.

    ___________________________________

    How would they know? They all went to school before the teaching of ‘black armband’ history became a thing.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Even if so, I doubt that any of them stopped learning the nanosecond they left school. When did they think the White Australia policy originated?

  4. BW

    Sorry. I was being facetious. I didn’t watch it because the promos had Bronwyn Bishop. Any woman who stood unapologetically (then or since) in front of the most misogynistic signs attacking a female PM has no right to be heard on any program purporting to deal with sexism in politics.

  5. zoomster @ #2382 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 8:23 am

    Quoll

    Woodside being a corporate donor and its production of materials for schools (which won’t be used) are two separate issues.

    Now, if a government of any stripe mandates that the material MUST be used in classes, you’d have a case.

    Most companies produce educational packs of one kind of another, as do most government departments. There’s nothing strange about that.

    Most of these educational packs promote the agenda of whoever produced them. There’s nothing strange about that.

    Very few of them get used because they’re rarely designed in a way that means that they’re of any use in a classroom.

    Schools are awash with this kind of material.

    They can be useful for a critical thinking exercise.

  7. Labor should listen to this conversation with Biden’s Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholm, to get ideas about how to speak to people, especially blue collar workers, that are reluctant to support change as it pertains to the Renewable Energy future:

    https://youtu.be/iIXdKDiJsnk

  8. The 12-year-old boy and his mother had been in the United States for three months. They returned and underwent hotel quarantine in Sydney, flew back to Brisbane on 9 July on Qantas flight 544.

    The boy then developed symptoms and saw a doctor at Aspley medical centre on 13 July, then went to the adjacent pharmacy, then was tested.

    Is this a failure of quarantine itself, or a failure of the number of days judged adquate?

  9. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:36 am

    boerwar @ #2322 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 7:21 am

    One of the features of China’s foreign ‘aid’ is that it involves lots of Chinese workers actually doing the work. This can breed local resentment. In Pakistan local resentment can be fatal.

    I am not sure what has happened here. The China side came in wolf warrior snarling on it being a bomb initially but now seems to be backpeddling to a softer line.

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202107/1228691.shtml

    One of the features of most countries foreign aid is that it benefits businesses from their own countries.
    _______________________________________
    That is certainly true for a significant amount of Australia’s foreign aid. Howerver this does not extend to any marked extent with Australian workers taking jobs from local workers.

    However that particular whataboutism does not change a single observation in my original post. The larger point is that the Belt and Road is being undermined in terms of soft power by the resentment being created by Chinese workers taking local jobs and, in this instance, by the reflexive initial wolf warrior snarling that responded to an act of terrorism targetting Chinese workers in Pakistan.

    All that said, the appropriate, or ethical expressions of the resentment cannot possibly be the barbaric action of murdering people by blowing a bus off the road and down a river embankment

  10. Cartoons from Spain – the Covid numbers are tilting skyward once more, there are hundreds of cartoonists out there:

    I pujant (And going up) by @JordiDuro

    Sector crític by Ferreres

    Logical bewilderment of scientists by @JLJLMartin

  11. Cat

    The only proviso in listening to the US talking to workers is remember the timeline of before and after the election is important.

    It’s a very different story talking from opposition and being in government passing your jobs plan via reconciliation in Congress

  12. ‘lizzie says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:52 am

    The 12-year-old boy and his mother had been in the United States for three months. They returned and underwent hotel quarantine in Sydney, flew back to Brisbane on 9 July on Qantas flight 544.

    The boy then developed symptoms and saw a doctor at Aspley medical centre on 13 July, then went to the adjacent pharmacy, then was tested.

    Is this a failure of quarantine itself, or a failure of the number of days judged adquate?’
    _____________________________________________
    Another Morrison cock up.

  13. ”
    TPOFsays:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:47 am
    BW

    Sorry. I was being facetious. I didn’t watch it because the promos had Bronwyn Bishop. Any woman who stood unapologetically (then or since) in front of the most misogynistic signs attacking a female PM has no right to be heard on any program purporting to deal with sexism in politics.
    ”

    Removing her as Speaker did not help Abbott at all to remain in power

  15. Andrew_Earlwood

    Isn’t it amazing that once there isn’t a Labor Government to criticise, that the ‘wiser’ old hands in the Rupeverse start saying sensible things. … 15 months too late.

    What is amazing and they are amazingly good at it is the smoothness and speed with which the Rupertverse flips from a ‘black is white’ position to a”black is black’ one. All done as if the previous position never existed. Fox News regularly gives master classes.

  16. Zerlo @ #2374 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 10:10 am

    SO who is correct?

    Both can be correct. You can be infected with the virus SARS-COV-2 but not suffer the disease COVID -19. The purpose of vaccination is to reduce the incidence and severity of the disease. It does not offer 100% protection against being infected with the virus. And if you are infected, you may still be able to transmit it.

  17. guytaur,
    If you actually watch the video you will hear lines that can be used by Labor from Opposition in order to win the seats they need to gain government.

  20. Alpha

    In case I haven’t done so. I just want to say thank you for joining BK in being a regular addition to my enjoyment of this site with your cartoon posting. 🙂

  22. ‘TPOF says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:47 am

    BW

    Sorry. I was being facetious. I didn’t watch it because the promos had Bronwyn Bishop. Any woman who stood unapologetically (then or since) in front of the most misogynistic signs attacking a female PM has no right to be heard on any program purporting to deal with sexism in politics.’
    _________________________________________
    The useful aspect of the program was that it demonstrated that the direct experience of Greens, Nationals, Liberals and Labor women were remarkably similar.

    I got the feeling that much of this experience was historical but that some of it, at least, was ongoing.

    What I did not get any sort of sense about was whether any of this was changing or whether any of the parties was separating itself from the pack.

    A final comment: neither the interviewer nor the interviewees addressed the sort of blanket denial of misogyny or sexual harassment currently being featured by a quartet of Liberal MPs.

  26. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:44 am
    ‘
    …
    ________

    Isn’t it amazing that once there isn’t a Labor Government to criticise, that the ‘wiser’ old hands in the Rupeverse start saying sensible things. … 15 months too late.’
    _________________________________________
    … and having in the interim contributed to the problem with contumely, barbs, snarks, snarls, personal attacks, divisive populism, semi-crackpot health advice, and all the rest of the fuckwittery which goes with habitual wreckers.

  28. Michael Rowland
    @mjrowland68
    ·
    13m
    Queensland CHO Dr Jeannette Young expresses concern about the COVID situation in Victoria, and warns if there are ‘unconstrained outbreaks’, Red Zones would have to be declared (ie: border closures). She says Queenslanders in Vic should consider coming home. #COVID19Vic

  33. Chris Whelan
    @cjwhelan

    The Craigieburn person who breached the red zone permit to go shopping is a pretty decent example of why home quarantine for international arrivals should not happen.

  35. “Use your own discretion,” says Gladys.

    Please know that if you have symptoms, the only place that you should go is to get tested and isolate. If you are worried call a health clinic or GP or somebody on the phone. Do not present yourself to a pharmacist or a medical centre or a GP clinic if you have symptoms because unfortunately a number of cases that were picked up were people who had the symptoms and went to get medical attention.

  36. 28 infectious in the community is no biggie for Gladys

    We had a couple of removalists infectious in the community and it is becoming a problem.

  39. Victoria @ #733 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 11:08 am

    28 infectious in the community is no biggie for Gladys

    We had a couple of removalists infectious in the community and it is becoming a problem.

    You could theoretically put forward the idea that she is softening up the community to be okay with numbers that grumble along the bottom of a graph as long as you can open up again.

  40. Cat

    That’s for the people arguing for home quarantine to argue. I suspect it will be its cheaper than dedicated facilities and faster to bring about.

  41. boerwar

    The useful aspect of the program was that it demonstrated that the direct experience of Greens, Nationals, Liberals and Labor women were remarkably similar.

    Which unfortunately is a bad situation. All sides locked in a “Mexican stand off’ re their appalling treatment of women. None willing to take real action for fear of the inevitable political onslaught from the other parties as the dirty linen is exposed. So either the impossible dream and all parties with good will in their hearts and collegiality make real reforms (yeah I know) or something sets off an ‘A-Bomb’.

  44. guytaur,
    I’m also uneasy with the idea because of the opening it provides to begin installing 1984esque monitoring of people in their homes. The thin end of the wedge, so to speak.

  45. Zerlo

    Australia has a different attitude than overseas.
    Even suppression advocates instead of elimination advocates.

    We are not talking about the Murdoch media.

  47. poroti says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 11:11 am

    ‘

    … None willing to take real action for fear of the inevitable political onslaught from the other parties as the dirty linen is exposed.
    …’
    ____________________________________
    That is, IMO, true with respect to historical behaviours.

    That said, IMO the Labor Party has done an excellent job of getting a better balance of female MPs. In other contexts those MPs have stated that this is having a direct impact on male behaviours inside the Labor Party. Why this was not addressed in that program I don’t know.

  48. I’m also uneasy with the idea because of the opening it provides to begin installing 1984esque monitoring of people in their homes. The thin end of the wedge, so to speak.

    “Hey Siri/Google, tell me about electronic monitoring in the home.”

  49. Getting symptoms means you can leave home only to get tested, and that’s all – not to GP, not to pharmacies, no where else. That I get.

    But, the instruction is to ring your GP, or as Gladys even went so far as to say, ring “someone”. Does everyone have a GP? That’s not a satisfactory solution. “Someone” is meaningless, and coming from the Premier, embarrassing. This situation should have a hot line number, with the capacity to provide a home service, a home health call, a home visit if necessary, PPE’d, for provision of whatever is needed – allay fears (the fear campaign is active, and real, and scary), medication, triage, etc.

    Hazzard is going on and on again that if you have symptoms, stay at home. OK, but then what?

  50. So, Berejiklian is hiding behind expert health advice at the same time as Morrison is attacking expert health advice.

    They can’t both be right.

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