The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
boerwar says:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 11:44 am
Imagine going through five and a half years of WW2 on the Home Front…
_____________
Just to make things a whole lot worse I read somewhere that every winter in Europe during ww2 was a severe winter when usually it is 1 in 4.
boerwar
What a shame we have a PM who believes End Times are imminent and of course he is one of the select to be ‘Raptured off and away’. Otherwise we might have had someone who went flat out after getting local production facilities for Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. They, supposedly, are easily modified to counter variants.
BB
The messaging since day 1 has been a shocker, IMO.
Morrison the Marvellous today “we’re only two months late”
Australia’s unemployment rate has fallen to 4.9 per cent in June, its lowest level since June 2011.
Employment grew by 29,100, driven by a 51,600 increase in full time jobs while part time jobs fell by 22,500. The participation rate was steady at 66.2 per cent.
Berejiklian
The Prince of Wales and the Repulse have been sunk.
Singapore has fallen, with 100,000 troops captured by a force a third of their size in the biggest ever military disaster to befall Australian arms.
I can see green shoots.
And do stop shouting.
”
boerwarsays:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 11:39 am
Ven
No, not Lamda. Weak as.
”
But I read about Lambda variant, which apparently mutated in Peru and accounts for about 85% cases in Peru, which travelled to UK and in the process of increasing in numbers
I see Gladys, under pressure, is throwing shade at Victoria once again. Poor form.
boerwar at 11:46 am
And given their having eleventy media advisers and the like makes me conclude it is deliberate.
p
Some of it, for sure. Some of it is a cockup.
“We are far from perfect” says gold standard Gladys. So gold standard must be shit.
SimonKatich
“There is a reason the Repugs are fighting so hard in Texas. They have to. It may well already be blue we’re if not for their efforts.”
Personally I think Texas is decades away from turning blue. It’s trending in the right direction, particularly if the Dems gain ground among educated and affluent suburban voters of the big cities. But they still have a long way to go, IMHO.
At least they have stopped saying is that the ‘next two days are critical’ when everyone knows that it was the last two and a half weeks that were critical.
Kakuru says:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 11:52 am
SimonKatich
“There is a reason the Repugs are fighting so hard in Texas. They have to. It may well already be blue we’re if not for their efforts.”
Personally I think Texas is decades away from turning blue. It’s trending in the right direction, particularly if the Dems gain ground among educated and affluent suburban voters of the big cities. But they still have a long way to go, IMHO.
____________________________
The Dems need to get much betterer at gaining a larger proportion of the hispanic vote.
Kakuru says:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 11:52 am
SimonKatich
“There is a reason the Repugs are fighting so hard in Texas. They have to. It may well already be blue we’re if not for their efforts.”
Personally I think Texas is decades away from turning blue. It’s trending in the right direction, particularly if the Dems gain ground among educated and affluent suburban voters of the big cities. But they still have a long way to go, IMHO.
___________________
I read the amount of Californians moving to Austin is having a big effect there. But Texas is already so populous that the implications are only local.
TPOF @ 10.47,
I loathe Bishop with a vengeance but wanted to see how LNP women wriggled out of the questions asked.
The history of women’s participation was something I only vaguely knew and those early women in particular were quite heroic, especially Enid Lyon who would need to dash home as there were no women’s toilets in Parliament House.
@kishor_nr tweets
It’s cool how 18 months into the pandemic so many people still don’t grasp the distinction between exposure sites (where an infected person visited) and transmission sites (where the transmission actually occurred)
There have been no cases of outdoor transmission in NSW. One transmission in a shop (Commonwealth Bank) which would be open even with tougher restrictions. And yet still so much commentary based purely on anecdata
U.S. COVID update: New cases and hospitalizations continue to rise
– New cases: 37,993 ……………………….. – New deaths: 398
– In hospital: 21,542 (+783)
– In ICU: 5,415 (+133)
623,838 total deaths now
“The Craigieburn person who breached the red zone permit to go shopping is a pretty decent example of why home quarantine for international arrivals should not happen.”
No shit.
I could swear some people actually want to let the virus in so we get used to it.
I don’t think I’ll bother watching pressers any more. I’ll just buckle down and isolate until it’s all over. But first, I’ll just pop out to buy bread and toilet rolls, which seem to be the staples of modern life.
Cud Chewer says:
I could swear some people actually want to let the virus in so we get used to it.
_________
A little known side effect of COVID is that it creates a powerful need to shop and head to the airport.
“One transmission in a shop”
Care to retract that?
boerwar
Oh for sure there will always be occasional cock ups but it is the purity and consistency that makes it look the work of ‘experts’ 🙂
REcon
“I read the amount of Californians moving to Austin is having a big effect there. But Texas is already so populous that the implications are only local.”
Interesting. As a progressive city, Austin was already an aberration in Texas (‘Keep Austin Weird’, as the bumper sticker says). Sounds like Austin is becoming a product of ‘Californification’.
If Texas more broadly attracts more Californians, it would certainly help make the state more Dem-friendly. But as you say, Texas is already so populous, and growing fast.
The spin and BS required to win elections doesnt work for long in a pandemic. Power consolidation, civil service control and managing the media cycle are are poor substitutes for good governance when it counts.
But… Australia hired a snake oil salesman to buy vaccines. A do-nothing blame-shifter to be incharge of quarantine. A failed marketing exec to sell a vaccine rollout and encourage the population to follow some basic restrictions in a pandemic. Morrison was fit for the purpose of winning an election for the LNP. He isnt fit to lead government. The question that comes from that is…. are our elections, election campaigns, media environment and 2 party system fit for purpose?
”
phoenixREDsays:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 11:56 am
U.S. COVID update: New cases and hospitalizations continue to rise
– New cases: 37,993 ……………………….. – New deaths: 398
”
Another day where deaths are 1% of cases
“ Morrison the Marvellous today “we’re only two months late”
__________
The shitfuckery runs deep.
Two months late on a schedule that was itself two months too late. In other words, we are 4 months behind where we needed to be on mid winter’s day!!
9 million jabs by the Ides of march? That would have been a big tick for a country that ProMo assured us was ‘at the head of the queue’ only months before hand. 9 million jabs on the ides of July? Epic fail. We are at risk of squandering everything that the state governments have achieved AND the hundred billion dollars or so investment of federal taxpayers money last year to make it happen!
“Two months late” … on the schedule that ProMo/Hunt set AFTER the UQ vaccine turned to shit and the federal government’s response thereto, re quarantine AND sourcing alternative (preferably rMNA) vaccines was … to say the least, and being generous to a fault … piss weak. “Lax”. Much!
@POTUS tweets
Olivia Rodrigo is stopping by the White House today with a clear message to young people: get vaccinated. It’s the best way to keep yourself and your loved ones safe from the dangerous new COVID-19 variants. Head to vaccines.gov to find a clinic near you.
@slpng_giants_oz tweets
Andrew Clennell from Sky News pulls a Peta Credlin at the NSW press conference, comes off as a bully, demands answers and guarantees that are impossible to answer.
Demanding to be heard over other journalists in attendance.
Unedifying and amateur
#Auspol
guytaur @ #2529 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 12:10 pm
Some of these gaslighters acting as media are a social menace.
They are an absolute turnoff and a barrier to getting the message out.
But mildly satisfying to see Mordor Media orcs giving the goose the sauce they thought was good enough for the gander.
So, Morrison has admitted that the future was unpredictable. Small mercies, be thankful. But they then proceeded to, at the very least, ignore what everyone else was doing, let alone absorb some basic principle of virology, and go downscale and meany poo and piss of Pfizer and back it into all into the one egg AZ basket, and then, there’s more, with no facility to plan for a roll out, other than outsource it to some private contractors with no local expertise, if any at all.
It’s not shocks to the system, Mr Morrison. It’s the system, your system; it was a shocker and still is.
Hey Scotty ! What do you reckon about this big chook coming home to shit on your policies , or do you plan on being ‘Raptured’ before it ‘roosts’ ?
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/14/climate/border-carbon-tax-united-states.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Edit- Double post. Now you see it now you don’t.
Wally Wallpaper went on Sydney FM radio this morning, with Kyle Sandilands and Jackie O – what topic did our national leader want to raise with a pandemic raging?
lizzie @ #2535 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 12:28 pm
And Gladys very quickly knew nothing. Not a ‘really? serious? gosh, I didn’t know that’ kind of nothing. More an instant ‘I don’t need to know that’ kind of nothing.
sprocket_
I congratulate Scotty . Well done him for coming up with a topic that is so suited to the Kyle and Jackie show.
sprocket_ @ #2537 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 12:29 pm
Definitely must have been true then.
This is how Vic “scrambles” to contain an outbreak, according to ABC?
True that it happened, true that he came on air to deny he shat himself rather than discuss covid payments, or true on both counts?
I’m going both.
There could well be a sleeper in that lot. Several Australian soldiers were shot to death by same.
Whether it is ethical to condemn hundreds, along with their families, to death by the Taliban is the ethical question for Dutton to answer.
One thing is for sure. Australian troops seeking support from the locals in the next war know what to expect in advance: ‘Fuck off. We can’t trust you.’
After posting the US rumblings I find that the Europeeps are at it as well. I bet our media lizards will be all over Scotty about the implications of US+EU moves…………………………as if.
.
E.U. Set to Unveil First-Ever Carbon Border Tax
The proposed tax places a fee on planet warming emissions embedded in goods produced outside the union.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/e-u-set-to-unveil-first-ever-carbon-border-tax/
Funny that Wally had no time to meet with a delegation of University Vice Chancellors, yet can go on a racist and misogynist hosted FM radio program to ‘deny soiling himself’ at Engadine Maccas.
If people want a primer on Wally Wallpaper’s choice of outlet, to deny his alleged outlet, here is but one of the Vile Kyle episodes…
https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/meghan-markle-kyle-sandilands-thomas-markle_au_5e2648eec5b674e44b9caa42
Jeroen Weimar is turning into a national rock star.
Sprocket
It’s going to get worse.
@ joshgnosis tweets
We are week away from The Australian Culture War Mad Libs.
COAL COMPANIES are worried about BEING CANCELLED due to CRITICAL RACE THEORY from GENDER FLUID teachers
@australian tweets
Australia’s prominent mining companies say proposed changes to the national school curriculum fail to present a balanced view of the minerals sector.
The concerning aspect is the two new cases from the MCG other day. These two cases are not known to each or the primary case. Also they were not sitting near each other either.