Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

Comments Page 52 of 62
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  1. [‘A primary school in Melbourne’s south-east has been closed after a pupil tested positive for the coronavirus on Thursday morning.

    St Patrick’s Primary School in Murrumbeena confirmed the positive test in an urgent email to parents.

    It said all year four students were required to be tested for the virus immediately, while other year levels were encouraged to get tested.

    Dean, a parent with children at the school, said he received a text message on Thursday morning.

    “The school is currently being evacuated,” he told Melbourne radio 3AW.

    The school is undergoing deep cleaning.

    Victorian health authorities confirmed the infection, along with another, in a briefing on Thursday. Both are linked to an AFL match at the MCG last Saturday.’]

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2021/07/15/st-patricks-murrumbeena-covid/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=News%20Alert%20-%2020210715

  2. boerwar at 12:36 pm
    I’d give it very low odds of there being a ‘sleeper’ . They won, the big bug bear the reason for their fight, occupiers, have gone . The sleepers that got the troops were killing and wounding ‘invaders’ , ‘occupiers’ . The odds of a sleeper might increase if one of them had a bigly personal grudge though. Someone who had say family killed by Australian troops ‘war crime’ style !

  3. @10NewsFirst tweets

    “The man whose furniture was taken away, who spent four or five hours with these removalists, was wearing a mask,” Weimar said. “He’s not yet currently known to be infected. The four other people … were not wearing masks and they’re positive.” #COVID19VIC

  7. I know I’m a bit of a hermit but I had heard of folks in the media and here referring to ‘Engadine Maccas’ without understanding the gravitas of the event. Thankyou Kyle Sandilands and Jackie O for clearing that up for me. Now I can go back to worrying about the way the LNP governments of various flavours are handling a deadly pandemic raging around the globe. Phew.

  13. Richard Willingham
    @rwillingham
    ·
    53s
    Jeroen Weimar says the wheels of justice will catch up with the removalists. He says they are a “rogue operator”.
    @abcmelbourne

    GAOL !

  14. Weimar

    One example is the removalists who were in the Ariele apartment building, the man whose furniture was taken away, who spent four or five hours with these removalists, was wearing a mask. He’s not yet currently known to be infected. The four other people, one direct neighbour, one elsewhere on the floor, were not wearing masks and they’re positive.

    We know that masks work. There will be huge opportunities to speak to my public health team about why masks work. We have decided to immediately implement that basic measure.

  15. Rex Douglas at 12:42 pm

    Jeroen Weimar is turning into a national rock star.

    I just wish he had a name change. Me brain automatically ‘sees’ Republic after Weimar and that is not a ‘good feeling’ combo 🙂

  17. surely we must all admire Glady’s heroic daily press conferences with a hostile media pack? I mean, that’s what Andrews was lauded for right?

  18. @CollingnonPeter tweets

    Long-term–care facilities such as nursing homes, homeless shelters, and prisons, workplaces such as meat-packing plants, have been associated with large-scale outbreaks of COVID-19, which were then linked to sustained widespread community transmission

  19. surely we must all admire Glady’s heroic daily press conferences with a hostile media pack? I mean, that’s what Andrews was lauded for right?
    ____
    Yes, but Andrews generally answered the questions without going on and on with vacuous non-answers.

  22. Recon at 12:56 pm

    surely we must all admire Glady’s heroic daily press conferences with a hostile media pack? I mean, that’s what Andrews was lauded for right?

    Dictator Dan scored bigly runs where Gladys has barely bothered the scorer, endurance, lack of cut and running and general clarity.

  23. Recon at 12:56 pm

    surely we must all admire Glady’s heroic daily press conferences with a hostile media pack? I mean, that’s what Andrews was lauded for right?

    Dictator Dan scored bigly runs where Gladys has barely bothered the scorer, endurance, lack of cut and running and general clarity.

  24. @drvyrom tweets

    Unless talking about people who have specific medical contraindications to the vaccines, the dichotomy of safe vs unsafe is spurious and dangerous.

    Even sardonic comments like “first they said it was safe, now they say it’s unsafe” frustrate me. No one ever said AZ was unsafe.

    ____________

    @RBReich tweets

    Why are Republicans trying to convince their own voters not to be vaccinated? Because their best hope for winning in 2022, in addition to voter suppression, is to keep stoking the culture wars — even at the cost of more illness and death.

  26. ‘I’d run out of food’: Australian’s epic 19-day, 5510km Alt-Tour de France..

    The challenge before the 29-year-old Morton was audacious at best, insane at worst: Ride the entire Tour route, including hundreds of kilometres between stages when competitors would be riding in a luxurious motor coach. He would carry everything he would need, cook his own meals, camp out at night and arrive before the peloton pulled into Paris this weekend.

    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cycling/i-d-run-out-of-food-australian-s-epic-19-day-5510km-alt-tour-de-france-20210715-p589x1.html

    EF Pro Cycling
    @EFprocycling
    Champagne showers on the Champs-Élysée! Bottle with popping corkClinking glasses a fitting end to an incredible ride.

    https://worldbicyclerelief.org/

  28. Every Jeroen Weimar presser is a masterclass in pandemic comms. Clear, concise, no BS, and occasional memorable turns of phrases. On the removalists ‘I’m not interested in being judge, jury and hangman.’ Which promptly ended the journos looking for a sound bite.

  29. guytaur @ #2549 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 12:44 pm

    Sprocket

    It’s going to get worse.

    @ joshgnosis tweets
    We are week away from The Australian Culture War Mad Libs.

    COAL COMPANIES are worried about BEING CANCELLED due to CRITICAL RACE THEORY from GENDER FLUID teachers

    @australian tweets

    Australia’s prominent mining companies say proposed changes to the national school curriculum fail to present a balanced view of the minerals sector.

    How rich Gina and Twiggy are?

  30. @ProfCDoherty tweets

    The real stars in the lab response are the young researchers working away in the labs. Sadly, the prospects of early career scientists across Australia are threatened by what are effectively massive cuts to universities & falling research funding for areas other than COVID

    @therealrobgrant tweets

    What a great doco and you, @ProfPCDoherty, were a star. Thank you for your lifetime of service to science. You have much to be proud of but remain so humble. We are privileged to have you among us.

  31. Tour de France riders… true sportsmen.. no carry on no massive ego & when not knackered show real joy at participating.

    AG2R CITROËN TEAM
    @AG2RCITROENTEAM
    Flag of France –
    @LeTour

    Au bout de l’effort
    @ben_oconnor95
    termine 5ème de cette incroyable étape. Fire

    Completely exhausted,
    @ben_oconnor95
    finishes 5th. Fire

    #TDF2021 #AG2RCITROËNTEAM #RoulonsAutrement #RideDifferently

    https://twitter.com/AG2RCITROENTEAM/status/1415332771153813509

  32. Bridget Rollason
    @bridgerollo
    The person who caught the virus in a Craigieburn Coles from a member of the Hume family, actually knew the family member, but ran into them in the supermarket. Sounded like they stopped to chat. So not exactly “fleeting transmission”
    @abcmelbourne
    #springst

  34. poroti @ #2545 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 12:39 pm

    After posting the US rumblings I find that the Europeeps are at it as well. I bet our media lizards will be all over Scotty about the implications of US+EU moves…………………………as if.
    .
    E.U. Set to Unveil First-Ever Carbon Border Tax

    The proposed tax places a fee on planet warming emissions embedded in goods produced outside the union.
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/e-u-set-to-unveil-first-ever-carbon-border-tax/

    We knew these were coming. There will be more. And you can’t say we weren’t warned. Or that they are unfair.

    Any country selfish enough not to impose its own carbon tax deserves whatever blow back they get.

    Think of it as a tax on stupidity.

  35. @xenophondavis tweets

    The Sydney law-firm Xenophon Davis has confirmed $1,060,300 has been deposited into their trust account to support Friendlyjordies’ ongoing legal battle against the Deputy Premier John Barilaro.

  36. Recon @ #2567 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 12:56 pm

    surely we must all admire Glady’s heroic daily press conferences with a hostile media pack? I mean, that’s what Andrews was lauded for right?

    Andrews was lauded for doing appropriate and necessary lockdowns despite vocal opposition (from the media and elsewhere), to control a situation that he never invited through pride and inaction.

    Gladys is in a mess of her own making. No plaudits for that.

  37. Recon @ #2567 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 12:56 pm

    surely we must all admire Glady’s heroic daily press conferences with a hostile media pack? I mean, that’s what Andrews was lauded for right?

    Has Gladys stood up for 2 hours or more against an aggro press pack looking for a got you for more than 100 days straight. She may get there though!
    My understanding is she only allows selected (read friendly) journos in.
    Today must have been an aberation

  38. Guardian

    A doctor has been in touch to point out that the symptoms of the Delta variant, which is what we are dealing with now in Sydney, Melbourne, and possibly Brisbane, presents differently to the Covid of last year.

    Symptoms can be very mild — it just feels like a common cold. So when authorities tell you to get tested with any symptoms, they really mean any symptoms, even very mild symptoms.

    This article from our science correspondent in the UK, where Delta is now the predominant variant, says that the most common symptoms reported are “headaches, a sore throat and a runny nose”.

  39. @oz_f tweets

    If we want to convince people to get vaccinated we should be collecting and publishing data on the impact vaccines have on hospitalisations and ICU. Another example of how the fetishising of zero cases is hindering vaccination.

    @cokeefe9 tweets

    I’ve asked this for weeks. Dr Chant said she doesn’t have data, not a priority. But she’s not aware of anyone in ICU who is vaccinated. Vaccines work.

    @TurnbullMalcolm tweets

    That’s good. But we should have this data daily. Transparency builds trust.

    @cokeefe9 tweets
    Please call Gladys.

  40. Is anyone else interested in the breakdown of testing and results in NSW.
    I would like to know what proportion of the tests yesterday were in Fairfield and what percentage were positive.

    Gladys has placed an enormous target on one suburb and I worry that as a result a sense of complacency may have occurred in other areas. Does anyone else share my concern.

  41. C@t

    CNN belling Fox, utter madness. Hopefully one day some of them will be held to account.

    Also, Rupe may have been born here but I don’t consider him one of us.

  42. [‘Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Wednesday appeared to blame the immunisation experts he has made a virtue of relying upon for advice.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/armed-patrols-complacency-and-covid-19-has-australia-bungled-the-pandemic-20210715-p589zo.html

    When all’s said and done, Morrison and Hunt had/have two jobs – they’ve failed at both. They didn’t go hell for leather in securing enough vaccines and they didn’t adhere to their Constitutional responsibility for quarantine. Currently, our fully vaccinated rate is 9.1% which puts us down near the bottom of the pile of economically advanced countries. Now they are flailing around looking for scapegoats to cover their own incompetence and irresponsibility.

  43. Barnaby “Let ‘er Rip” Joyce weighs in:

    Mr Joyce says as the vaccine program rolls out, restrictions should be lifted.

    “We’ll be doing very well if we get to 70 per cent of people wanting to be vaccinated,” he said.

    “We’re going faster, we’re getting more vaccines in, they’re coming in the millions … we’ve got more AstraZeneca than we know what to do with.”

    The government’s hoping that everyone who wants a jab will get one by Christmas, something Mr Joyce says on current projections should be achievable.

    “I imagine you’ll get to November, December and you’ll see the majority of Australians vaccinated with one to two shots,” he said.

    (ABC updates 35 minutes ago)

  44. ABC updates now:

    The ABC understands Melbourne will go into a snap lockdown from midnight tonight to curb the growing COVID outbreak.

    Authorities are still discussing how many days it will last.

  45. Rossmore says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 1:08 pm
    Every Jeroen Weimar presser is a masterclass in pandemic comms. Clear, concise, no BS, and occasional memorable turns of phrases. On the removalists ‘I’m not interested in being judge, jury and hangman.’ Which promptly ended the journos looking for a sound bite.
    ________________________________

    I heard the last part of his press conference. Very impressed with his clarity. It may help that he clearly has free rein to do his job properly. Not a politician nor a politically compromised health official or policeman.

  46. Anyhoo the herald sun is reporting that Victoria will have a snap lockdown starting tonight and that the PM has been advised.

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