Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

Comments Page 53 of 62
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  1. @JakeSmethurst3 tweets
    The best move is a short, sharp lockdown. It’s unfortunate, but ultimately required. No waiting. Get it over and done with. It will allow us to contain the Delta variant and avoid a NSW situation. #CovidVic #COVID19Aus

  2. And more from the Qld LNP candidate for the Stretton by election….

    ‘The endorsed Queensland Liberal National party candidate, policeman Jim Bellos, has apologised for social media posts referring to a female journalist as a “cow” and a “stupid sour bitch”.

    The Facebook posts by Bellos, a former Queenslander of the Year who is running at a state by-election in the south Brisbane seat of Stretton, have emerged amid a crackdown on officers’ offensive private social media activity by the Queensland police.

    In the posts, from 2017, Bellos links to the now-infamous “jacketgate” off-air exchange between journalists Amber Sherlock and Julie Snook on Channel Nine.

    He tagged another police officer, a sergeant, in the post.

    “Cant believe you missed all of this…..check out this cow!” Bellos wrote.

    He then responded to another person who wrote “obviously she needs a good shag.”

    Bellos said: “She needs more than that! Stupid sour bitch! Straight to her phone to have BBF.”

    Guardian Australia understands BBF is a reference to “big bitching fit”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/15/queensland-lnp-candidate-jim-bellos-apologises-for-offensive-posts-about-female-journalist

  3. It would seem that with the rules around lockdowns and financial support it is better for the state budget to go slow, so you get some income support, than go hard and fast and risk having multiple short lockdowns with no federal support.
    WA has had two short lockdowns with no federal support, but workers especially casuals who are most affected can’t afford to lose a couple of days pay every month. This problem is compounded if the state continues some restrictions that mean jobs with high levels of casual workers don’t get back to work for a month.

    Our federal government should be doing more to help people in insecure work, they seem to be the ones suffering the most in this pandemic.

  4. Sky-after-Dark is doing a job on Berejiklian; Morrison, a little less so. Jones says lockdowns are useless but that didn’t stop him hunkering down at his safe haven in the Southern Highlands when things looked grim. I suppose the only positive is that no one watches Sky. Here’s his latest rant:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXgpuBF9rto

  9. mikehilliard @ #888 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 1:37 pm

    C@t

    CNN belling Fox, utter madness. Hopefully one day some of them will be held to account.

    Also, Rupe may have been born here but I don’t consider him one of us.

    I don’t normally put those clips up because you can source them if you want them but that one just had to be seen to be believed!

    Oh, and Lachlan is still here though. 🙁

  13. @kishor_nr tweets

    I’m old enough to remember when National Cabinet agreed that lockdowns would only be used as a last resort, the first phase of Scott Morrison’s “new deal” for Australia. How things change in two weeks . . .

    (This isn’t commentary on the necessity of lockdown no. 5 but rather the state of the “new deal”)

  14. Assantdj,
    Our federal government should be doing more to help people in insecure work, they seem to be the ones suffering the most in this pandemic.

    I referred to a fascinating story yesterday by a Fairfax journo that has spent some time recently in the Queensland Resource seats and spoken directly to a few Casualised Miners. They’re quite happy to be Casuals because they get to tell the mine when they want to work and they get a 25% Loading cf Permanent staff. Plus, this enables them to organise side gigs. A couple of Electricians that were spoken to had a side gig installing Solar Panels on people’s rooftops. So, no feeling of insecurity amongst that lot. And yes, they mine Coal AND install Solar Panels. 🙄

  16. I think Hazzard has been a major part of the problem with NSW press conferences. He’s mostly snappy, always a sign of defensiveness, and interestingly today lavished much praise on the journalist who asked his question “respectfully”, which looked to me to be more an acknowledgement of how important he thinks he is than anything else. But, while I’m no fan of aggro journos, it is his paid for handsomely job, to deal with it, and get the information out, clearly. He’s signing off on all this stuff; he should be able to explain it. I was talking to someone this morning from the Big Cruise Industry who reassured me that yes, his experience is of someone as thick as three planks.

    Which leaves Gladys to struggle on with the ‘please love me I’m unloved Gladys’ roundabouts, trying to make vague unpleasantries cutesy and folksy, as Dr Chant soldiers on fully composed, pretty unflappable, under considerable pressure, clinical and political (like a pay cut for saying naughty things).

  20. “that didn’t stop him hunkering down at his safe haven in the Southern Highlands when things looked grim.”

    Being in the closet also gives Jones another level of protection.

  22. Oh, and Lachlan is still here though.
    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 2:06 pm

    So nath is going to get his lockdown. He’ll probably complain that it should have been sooner.
    ____________
    You heard it here first folks:

    Recon says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:00 am

    I am hearing that a 5 day Melbourne lockdown is imminent.

  26. “I imagine you’ll get to November, December and you’ll see the majority of Australians vaccinated with one to two shots,” he said.

    So 50% + 1 of the population given one dose by December. At least they’re honest with their underachieving.

  28. “So 50% + 1 of the population given one dose by December”

    And on Jan 1 they start allowing people one week of self quarantine.

    What could possibly go wrong?

  30. C@tmomma
    Wasn’t it casual miners from Queensland who won a court case around penalties and holidays. To all intents and purposes they were permanent workers, they had no flexibility around their shifts but were paid as casuals.

    I was actually referring in my comment to the insecure casuals who lose all work when we go into lockdown such as coffee shops and other hospitality jobs.

  32. When you see headlines on the ABC news website like:
    “Prime Minister Scott Morrison will hold a press conference shortly.”

    you wonder who is about to be thrown under the bus for the latest quarantine/vaccine/lockdown failure? Perhaps bookies should be allowed to take bets. We could have a punting led recovery.

    Here is my market odds for who will be the next to be blamed:

    Dan Andrews 5 to 1 on
    Gladys 2 to 1
    CMO even money
    Hazzard 4 to 1
    Hunt 8 to 1
    Everythings fine 20 to 1
    Morrison (takes responsibility) write your own ticket

  35. Beemer

    Morrison can blame idiots like you conflating arguing for safe high capacity quarantine as “open borders” pretending that means unsafe.

  36. Victoria is expected to enter a snap lockdown tonight, with The Herald Sun reporting the decision is set to be announced later today.

    The lockdown is expected to start from midnight tonight,with health department sources telling the publication that the restrictions would be similar to the state’s previous lockdown.

    This means there will likely be just five reasons to leave home, schools will close, with the lockdown expected to last for three or five days.

    It comes as Victoria’s Covid-19 outbreak rose to 16 today, with Victoria dealing with two different chains of transmission.

  37. Assantdj @ #927 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 2:30 pm

    C@tmomma
    Wasn’t it casual miners from Queensland who won a court case around penalties and holidays. To all intents and purposes they were permanent workers, they had no flexibility around their shifts but were paid as casuals.

    I was actually referring in my comment to the insecure casuals who lose all work when we go into lockdown such as coffee shops and other hospitality jobs.

    I know you were referring to the Precariat Workers, however I just thought you might be interested in the latest developments in other areas of the workforce. And if it was Casual Miners who won that court case then they are using it to stay in their jobs as Casuals but not be told anymore when they are to work. I imagine their Labour Hire Company employers would know that these workers are highly skilled and already in place, so to try to move them on would be a great inconvenience to them and the workers would no doubt spread the word to their co-workers and maybe even launch another expensive court case for the employers.

  38. Heard Hunt this morning on local jock radio 6PR given a tummy tickle interview by Liam Bartlett. Example question: “Do you think the criticism of the Federal government over its handling of Covid vaccine roll our (and other issues) has been unfair?”…
    Hunt should have replied…..”Gee, Liam what a pleasure it is to be interviewed by you and get such a tough question…”…I jest of course…………
    Bartlett is the guy who constantly finds whinge topics to feed to his (mainly older/right-wing leaning) audience and then claims he ‘listens’ to the facts on both sides…………………………
    The interview this morning with Hunt was real soft turnip stuff…….

  40. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 1:01 pm
    America is losing its mind and we in Australia was where the man who was the progenitor of it all was born:

    https://youtu.be/ZEJufOyAbis
    ”
    1. America lost its mind, atleast a part of it, after 9/11.
    2. GFC, Trump election, Trump as President and COVID ensured that process has only accelerated.

  41. MB

    Good point. Every market adjusts. New market for the covid incompetence blame game:

    Dan Andrews 5 to 1 on
    Gladys 2 to 1
    CMO 3 to 1
    A random worker 3 to 1
    Hazzard 4 to 1
    Hunt 8 to 1
    Everythings fine 20 to 1
    Morrison (takes responsibility) write your own ticket

  42. ”
    C@tmommasays: Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 1:01 pm America is losing its mind and we in Australia was where the man who was the progenitor of it all was born: https://youtu.be/ZEJufOyAbis
    ”

    1. America lost its mind, atleast a part of it, after 9/11. 2. GFC, Trump election, Trump as President and COVID ensured that process has only accelerated.

  43. Boerwar @11.44,

    My parents did just that, through ‘the hunger winter’ and dad in the Dutch resistance.
    Trauma ran deep.

  44. Imagine if Australia had joined the US in demanding Patent rights had been waived. Local manufacturing of Pfizer and Moderna as well as AZ.

    That excuse too is an admission of failure.

    _________________________
    @CroweDM tweets

    Scott Morrison: I can tell you the discussions with Moderna, which have been ongoing now for some time, for some considerable time, as they had been with Pfizer, but an end to end manufacturing capability which is what we had with AstraZeneca, and have with AstraZeneca, and what

  46. Anthony Albanese
    @AlboMP
    The UK is preparing to give a third dose to over 50s from September – most Australians will still be waiting for their first dose. It is a race.
    —————————

    Yep , i am still waiting for my first dose in a few weeks

  47. Ven
    I put the official date as being the day they re-elected Dubya. As George himself attempted to say..

    “fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me”

    But actually said 😆

    “There’s an old saying in Tennessee—I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, ‘Fool me once, shame on…shame on you. Fool me—you can’t get fooled again.’

  49. What a lying shit bag this prick is. Makes my blood boil.

    The government, he says, is about “two months behind where we’d hoped to have been” in the rollout, because “the medical advice that was given around AstraZeneca”.

    (guardian)

    Excuse the language. I can’t believe this. That is has been so distilled down to blame the medical advice.

  50. ”
    Reconsays:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 11:20 am
    Who is the rude bastard yelling at Gladys?
    ”

    Recon
    Here is the answer for your above question. Did you expect it to a ALP supporter? Here goes. 🙂

    guytaursays:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 12:10 pm
    @slpng_giants_oz tweets

    Andrew Clennell from Sky News pulls a Peta Credlin at the NSW press conference, comes off as a bully, demands answers and guarantees that are impossible to answer.

    Demanding to be heard over other journalists in attendance.

    Unedifying and amateur

    #Auspol

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