Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

Comments Page 54 of 62
1 53 54 55 62
  1. Tony Windsor
    @TonyHWindsor
    ·
    9m
    Confuseus say…
    “Man who talks about ancient poo on pants have shit on mind”

    😆

  2. Cud Chewer says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 2:30 pm
    “So 50% + 1 of the population given one dose by December”

    And on Jan 1 they start allowing people one week of self quarantine.

    What could possibly go wrong?
    ________________________________________
    Tell us again – oh PB19 oracle of knowledge!

  3. I have just returned from the local Woolies. Everyone was masked, although there was no guard dog on the door.

    As I came out, I could hear a recorder playing two phrases, over and over, hitting the same wrong note every time. I hope they weren’t hoping for much money today.

  4. According to news.com.au and the fin review:
    Melbourne is about to Plunge into Lockdown.
    According to The Age:
    Melbourne is Bracing itself for Lockdown.
    7 News is amid fears that Melbourne will lockdown
    The Guardian has:
    Victoria expected to Enter a Lockdown.
    As for the ABC:
    Melbourne to enter snap COVID lockdown from tonight, the ABC understands.


  5. porotisays:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 12:23 pm
    Hey Scotty ! What do you reckon about this big chook coming home to shit on your policies ,

    In the parlance of Rugby League He is not a Roosters fan, He is Sharks fan. 🙂

  6. Scotty-from-marketing..
    “One in eight are now fully vaccinated. Just under 60 per cent of over 50s had their first dose, and almost 75 per cent of those over 70 had their first dose.”

    uses 1 in 8 for overall…. because he’s embarrassed to say 12%.. d**khead

  7. Sceptic says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 3:23 pm
    Scotty-from-marketing..
    “One in eight are now fully vaccinated. Just under 60 per cent of over 50s had their first dose, and almost 75 per cent of those over 70 had their first dose.”

    uses 1 in 8 for overall…. because he’s embarrassed to say 12%.. d**khead
    ___________________________________________
    So percentages versus fractions have become political?

    Who knew?


  8. lizziesays:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 12:36 pm
    Weimar says contact tracers in Victoria have traced through seven rings of transmission associated with the removalists and also the family in the city of Hume.

    This is how Vic “scrambles” to contain an outbreak, according to ABC?

    So Vic government is already”scrambling”? To the credit of NSW “Gold Standard” NSW Government did not scramble for about a week.

  9. Lars…
    Everything is political in this world.. from hair transplants for him to capped teeth , shoulder pads & shoe lifters for Howard.. everything is considered.
    Fractions are used so his idiot supports cant work out how much he’s failed by & prevent easy comparisons.

  10. I was amused (kinda) by a NSW Tweeter generously sending advice to Victorians on how to survive a lockdown.
    We know, mate, we know.


  11. porotisays:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 12:39 pm
    After posting the US rumblings I find that the Europeeps are at it as well. I bet our media lizards will be all over Scotty about the implications of US+EU moves…………………………as if.
    .
    E.U. Set to Unveil First-Ever Carbon Border Tax

    The proposed tax places a fee on planet warming emissions embedded in goods produced outside the union.
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/e-u-set-to-unveil-first-ever-carbon-border-tax/

    But I thought PM Morrison had his say at G7 summit according to Murdoch press. Shouldn’t that be sufficient for US and Europe not to impose Carbon tax on Australia? Oh well we have our precious FT in -principle agreement with UK.

  12. Lars

    PS.. Scotty use of Australian flag mask is echoed by his evangelical ragbag christian supporters on FaceBook.. using Aus flag emoji .. got to keep the rusted ons there.

  13. Might be worth a look.

    QandA
    @QandA
    · 4h
    Tonight, #QandA is live from Melbourne with guest host Virginia Trioli and @MarylouiseMcla1, @StevePriceMedia, @DrMukeshH, Meshel Laurie and @ak_pennington. Tune-in at 8.30pm AEST on @ABCTV and iview

  14. Lars Von Trier

    Tell us again – oh PB19 oracle of knowledge!

    One easy prediction is that Lars Von Trier will be whinging that hindsight is 20/20. How could we have known? If only someone had told us!

  15. @Nettythe1st
    ·
    3h
    Why doesn’t @GladysB have an Auslan signer at her press conferences

    Is this true? If it is, easy to guess the reason.
    😆

  16. Question: If the Australian vaccination roll-out is terrible , and Australia now has a higher percentage of people vaccinated than New Zealand – should we conclude the NZ Vaccine roll-out is terrible too?

    Or to put it another way, is the NZ Ardern Labor Government as or more terrible than the Morrison Liberal/ National Government?

  17. lizzie @ #2667 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 3:38 pm

    @Nettythe1st
    ·
    3h
    Why doesn’t @GladysB have an Auslan signer at her press conferences

    Is this true? If it is, easy to guess the reason.
    😆

    She does have one, or several actually. It must be exhausting. The Auslan guy in Brisbane is amazing. He puts so much personality into it, like vocal inflections.

    (again, apologies about the language in my previous post – it’s the doctor thing)


  18. guytaursays:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 2:03 pm
    Having delivered for NSW. How long will Victoria wait for income payments for lockdown?

    Didn’t some federal politician say that a state has to be in lockdown for 2 weeks to get the payments?

  19. Imagine if Covid-19 was, say, a train derailment.

    Many fatalities; many fighting for life.

    We’d be hearing personal, gut-wrenching stories: single mother of three, working her bum off, dead. Hard-working fire-fighter, with four children: dead. Insignificant public servant who supports parents: dead. Et-f-cetera.

    We’d know all their personal details. We’d have family snaps plastered all over the papers.

    Because it’s a tragedy, donycha know.

    Yet Covid deaths? We know nothing.

    We’re told we’re in a life or death situation; trying to decide whether to be vaccinated or not, we get nothing, not a peep, about the people who have died, their medical conditions, if any, and we’re supposed to make up our minds, weigh up the risks, without this vital information. Just do it.

    And the people telling us to do it have been vaccinated with the premium. And telling the rest of us to make do with a 2nd class vax.

    I can’t tell you how annoyed I am about it.

  20. Lars Von Trier

    Or to put it another way, is the NZ Ardern Labor Government as or more terrible than the Morrison Liberal/ National Government?

    No. Each government is being held to its own goals, standards and vaccination plan. The NZ government are competent communicators, planners and leaders, unlike ours.

  21. Itza

    I think on the whole we are all being very restrained in our language, considering what Scotty and Gladys have achieved together.


  22. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 2:14 pm
    guytaur @ #912 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 2:12 pm

    Cat

    Installing solar panels essential work?

    It’s Gladstone in Queensland. No restrictions up there.

    And not Gladystan. 🙂

  23. kezza2 – about 5300 Aussies died of bowel cancer in 2018 ( the figure is expected to be higher because of the people who didn’t get screened because of covid in 2021).

    A total of 912 people have died from covid in the last 18 months (820 of whom where in Victoria).

    Every death is a tragedy for a family member but its good to keep some perspective.

    Imagine if we had someone like cudchewer firing properly – he could be lecturing on the benefits of regular fibre in your diet, colonic irrigation and bowel screening 24/7 all taken from cribbing internet sources.

  24. @tanya_plibersek tweets

    Australia’s two biggest cities are again under lockdown, all because Scott Morrison failed to do his two jobs: delivering vaccines and fixing national quarantine.

    @AdamBandt tweets

    With rumors of a fifth lockdown for Victoria, the government has to step up to help casual workers and jobseekers.

    Scott Morrison must fast-track support for people today.

    Not in a week. Not when a Liberal Premier asks him.

    Now.

  25. DisplayName says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 3:58 pm
    Imagine if Lars Von Trier had something of value to contribute.
    _____________________________________
    Sorry to be a truth teller DN.

    PB19s’s very own Sceptic confirmed the figures.

  26. I reckon the memes, pictures, gif and tweets will come thick and fast:
    Luke Farquhar
    @LukeFarquhar
    ·
    16m
    #ThanksGladys #nswcovid19 #coronavirus

  27. NZ have zero local covid cases.

    NZ didn’t claim they were head of the queue.

    NZ weren’t offered 40mill Pfizer doses this time last year.

    NZ is a tiny little country that is significantly poorer (per capita ) than Australia, who worship the God Rugby and believe Crowded House is a NZ band because they have very little to hang their hat on.

    But go ahead – make NZ your your comparison. At least they backed the right vax horse.

  28. Imagine not understanding that assessing a plan and its execution requires understanding what the goals and projected outcomes are.

  29. I think Morrison might have been the source of the 1:8 figure, so excuse my scepticism. Ya know, Matilda and the lies story.

    Lars Von Trier @ #2682 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 3:57 pm

    ItzaDream says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 3:55 pm
    On yesterday’s figures. NZ (10.2%) has more fully vaccinated than Aus (9.1%).

    (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=OWID_WRL)
    ______________________________________________

    According to Sceptic the Australian full vaccination percentage is now 12.5% or 1 in 8- ahead of NZ.

    I think Morrison might have been the source of the 1:8 figure, so excuse my scepticism. Ya know, Matilda and the lies story. They did shut down fact checker remember.

  30. There is still angst over the definition of essential business, but Gladys laughs away any idea that Vic had a definition. “No, they didn’t.”

    But fails to come up with one of her own.

  31. @slpng_giants_oz tweets

    Scott Morrison confirms -unless your EMPLOYER tells you not to come to work you are INELIGIBLE to get the federal government pandemic payment.

    Whilst ever Gladys Berejiklian & Brad Hazzard avoid their responsibilities, workers are at unnecessary risk every day.

    #Auspol

  32. Sounding like a new variant of vaccine conspiracy theorists – the Government and the Health department(s), Medicare are lying about vaccination numbers now!

  33. Lars

    So 5300 people died of bowel cancer in 2018, before they were screened in 2021, and cud chewer is to blame.

    That helps.

  34. @chaser tweets

    We know you’re all waiting for our take on Victoria’s lockdown, but we’re from NSW so it takes us an extra 3 weeks to respond to any Covid developments

  35. Lars Von Trier @ #2678 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 3:51 pm

    kezza2 – about 5300 Aussies died of bowel cancer in 2018 ( the figure is expected to be higher because of the people who didn’t get screened because of covid in 2021).

    A total of 912 people have died from covid in the last 18 months (820 of whom where in Victoria).

    Every death is a tragedy for a family member but its good to keep some perspective.

    The perspective is that those 912 deaths were out of a pool of just 31,513 people with covid, while your 5300 were drawn out of a pool of 25 million people with bowels. One thing kills way more frequently than the other. And it’s not the bowel cancer one.

    Expose all 25 million Australians to covid, and you’ll be lucky to walk away with fewer than 500,000 dead. But let’s do that because lockdowns are annoying, I guess?

  36. This Sunday on #Insiders
    @David_Speers will be joined by @frankelly08 @PhillipCoorey and @msmarto
    #auspol

    and interview Barnaby Joyce.

    Do they really need to work so hard to make the lockdown unbearable?

Comments Page 54 of 62
1 53 54 55 62

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *