The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
@callapilla tweets
Daniel Andrews will hold a presser at 4.45pm
Daniel Andrews will hold a presser at 4.45pm
snap
These people and this not-for-profit org are truly wonderful.
Any donations go to great cause. – https://www.sikhvolunteersaustralia.org/donation/
No AR – Im not anti-lockdown.
I think the public health response across the country has been excellent.
There’s obviously been a huge dollop of politics from politicians (unsurprisingly) trying to spin it to their advantage including those who called elections off the back of it. Some things have been failures or oversights. NSW could have locked down earlier and Victoria had a crappy hotel quarantine system for example.
With the vaccine roll-out it will be a much diminished threat. If you take steve777 as a worst case figure – he quoted 9 months – given the daily rate has gone up 30% on his figures – its now probably 7 months worst case.
I suspect by Christmas most people will have had 2 shots (or the opportunity to do so) – and those who haven’t will be taking their chances. I think even Dan Andrews had a similar p.o.v about people who chose not to be vaccinated.
I’m looking forward to the start of the post covid era and the end of the Sydney lockdown like most Australians.
Best,
Lars
There is another chart in ourworldindata dated 13 July which makes the NZ/Oz comparison even worse for here than posted earlier.
NZ 11.7% (564,789 people)
Oz 9.4% (2.4 million people)
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations and scroll to the chart titled “Share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19, Jul 13, 2021”
Hi Poll Bludger-
Awesome analysis and data you have. I was wondering if you know where I can long term (like 40-50 years) data on Australia polling. I can scrape some off The Oz website and Roy Morgan publishes its history, but wondering if you knew where I can get more / cleaner data.
Happy to share what I can collect also.
Cheers,
Dan
citizen your figures are 2 days old.
sceptic confirmed Australian’s full vaccination rate is now 12.5% – ie higher than the Kiwis.
Best,
Lars
@jennyleong tweets
Oh melbourne folks my heart goes out to you – you’ve been through soooo much and such intense times already x
a r
Thanks. That makes semse.
I don’t agree with everything Lars says. But at least he has his own opinions and doesn’t wait for cues from ALP HQ in order to form them.
Recon
Well of course he doesn’t, he gets them from the Lib HQ!
Hadn’t you noticed that the obsession with NZ is a typical Coalition unicorn? Or did you think he came up with that by himself?
DisplayNamesays:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 4:43 pm
Hadn’t you noticed that the obsession with NZ is a typical Coalition unicorn? Or did you think he came up with that by himself?
__________
I thought the comparison quite apt. They are both roughly at the same level. One is apparently a reprehensible effort, the other praised for reaching stated goals.
My personal opinion is that both are shithouse.
@naamanzhou tweets
Buying takeaway food and walking outdoors is (a) allowed under the public health order (b) a completely reasonable, low to zero risk thing to do (c) crucial for maintaining your mental and physical health
@kishor_nr tweets
You’re forgetting (d) it’s not a proper lockdown unless people are as miserable as possible
@cameronwilson tweets
also c) fuels the scold economy which is great for our GDC (gross domestic content)
__________________
It’s going to be interesting to see how Victorian health orders differ from NSW.
Pear.Dan try emailing William.
pear.dan381says:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 4:31 pm
Hi Poll Bludger-
Awesome analysis and data you have. I was wondering if you know where I can long term (like 40-50 years) data on Australia polling. I can scrape some off The Oz website and Roy Morgan publishes its history, but wondering if you knew where I can get more / cleaner data.
Happy to share what I can collect also.
Cheers,
Dan
_______________
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/
Recon
That you’d buy into Liberal groupthink is hardly surprising.
Oops. Thought you meant electoral data. Don’t think there is polling data there.
Displayname – you just have to make the shift from:
Labor – Good/ Liberal – Bad
TO:
Labor – Bad / Liberal – Bad
and you’ll realise how poorly served Australians are by our political system.
Best,
Lars
Lars Von Trier @ #2720 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 4:20 pm
Lars, I suspect you have made one shift too many.
As I posted earlier, the ourworldindata figures are dated 13 July, with NZ 11.7% and Oz 9.4%.
Two things:
1. The ourworldindata figures come as a time series and at no time has the % fully vaccinated in Oz exceeded that in NZ.
2. Figures for today (15 July) would not be in yet, so Morrison could only quote figures up to yesterday (14 July) plus an estimate for today.
Anyone who thinks that Australia’s % fully vaccinated rose from 9.4% to 12.5% (Morrison’s 1 in 8) in two days would need a good imagination.
DisplayNamesays:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 4:49 pm
Recon
I thought the comparison quite apt.
That you’d buy into Liberal groupthink is hardly surprising.
___________________
My whole intellectual set up is against groupthink buddy. If I was stranded on an island with 9 other social democrats I would instantly form a splinter party.
Is Dan Andrews going to town on Morrison and his cronies incompetence ?
Dan Andrews VERY clearly defining the lockdown and VERY clearly contrasts the Victorian and NSW approaches to managing outbreaks.
Johnson’s Brexit Clusterfuck expands its horizons.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/11/uk-food-worker-shortages-push-prices-up-and-risk-christmas-turkey-supplies
Sheesh. 5days. Good luck Victorians. I hope you bring it in sooner.
Lars
I can think for myself, thank you. I don’t need to join your uncritically over-simplified same-same groupthink.
Recon
I’ll take your word for it.
@joshgnosis tweets
Andrews says it’ll be the same as the May-June lockdown: “If you are authorised to work then, you will be authorised to work now. If you were close then, you will be closed now. It is detailed, absolute clarity.”
Pointed there.
Reconsays:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:00 am
I am hearing that a 5 day Melbourne lockdown is imminent.
____________
How good is my Cabinet source? 🙂
Andrews will argue that Victorians should get a pro rata subsidy, not have to wait the 7 days the C’wealth is suggesting.
No Journo had it all day. PB had it at 10 am. Thanks to me. Your welcome.
If someone said that NZ’s goals are unambitious, but at least their planning and execution is competent, then I’d say they were thinking for themselves :P.
lizzie @ #2731 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 4:29 pm
I cant see that happening.
Wayne called the 2019 election long before anyone else, much to everyone’s surprise including his own :P.
DisplayNamesays:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 5:02 pm
Wayne called the 2019 election long before anyone else, much to everyone’s surprise including his own :P.
_____
I had the 5 days buddy and that’s the difference.
MCG sounds like it’s going to be a superspreader event.
Recon – you’ve got better sources than poor sprockets – and that’s saying something !
All of Vic included in lockdown, with the possibility of small regions released if they prove Covid-negative. The complete opposite of Gladys’ incremental approach.
Lars Von Triersays:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 5:03 pm
Recon – you’ve got better sources than poor sprockets – and that’s saying something !
__________
sprockets imagines that his photos talk to him. Hawkey praises his photoshop skills.
A R
Yet the earlier cases at the footy didn’t spread.
This is why this virus is strange.
@StephenMcDonell tweets
The #US Senate has unanimously passed legislation banning the import of all products from #China’s #Xinjiang region, introducing an assumption that products there have been made using forced labour. #Xinjiang exporters would have to prove no forced labour for #US import exemption
Funny enough I’ve got some friends in the ALP and their views, privately held of course, more align with mine than any of the UI on here.
Calm down everyone, says Andrews, This is Victoria. You’ll all get a go. 😆
Recon says:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 5:05 pm
Lars Von Triersays:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 5:03 pm
Recon – you’ve got better sources than poor sprockets – and that’s saying something !
__________
sprockets imagines that his photos talk to him. Hawkey praises his photoshop skills.
_________
True that – for such a rabid partisan – he’s always talking about senior Liberals talking to him about imminent rollings and the like – which never seem to materialise.
There’s definitely a whiff of Labor Walter Mitty about him!
Glady can stick her gold standard where the sun don’t shine.
Dan Andrews to throng of reporters clamouring with questions. “Listen, this is Victoria. You know I won’t walk away. I’ll get to all of your questions.”
i wonder who Dan was having a go at? In answering a question he said this is Melbourne and i will answer all your questions.
Lars Von Triersays:
True that – for such a rabid partisan – he’s always talking about senior Liberals talking to him about imminent rollings and the like – which never seem to materialise.
______________
Oh yes I forgot about that. The imminent Cabinet reshuffle that never eventuated!
BK @ #2745 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 5:09 pm
That cracked me up 😆