Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

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  1. MexB
    It would seem that the chap from the apartments who went to the footy, his parents etc is the superspreader (he may have infected the other residents rather than the removalists)
    This is that K factor we keep hearing about

  2. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 5:10 pm
    BK @ #2745 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 5:09 pm

    Dan Andrews to throng of reporters clamouring with questions. “Listen, this is Victoria. You know I won’t walk away. I’ll get to all of your questions.”
    That cracked me up
    ______________________________
    I must say your views have changed. Has the on-line identity “Rex Douglas” been purchased by the Victorian Premier’s media team around about December 2020?

  3. New Zealand remains ahead of Australia on the percentage of citizens vaccinated.

    Plus they are ahead of their own schedule, while we are behind ours.

    Plus they currently have no community transmission or lockdowns.

    Plus they are using a better vaccine – 100% Pfizer.

    Plus they have a decent Prime Minister.

    No wonder they attract such hatred here.

  4. Lars Von Triersays:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 5:12 pm

    I must say your views have changed. Has the on-line identity “Rex Douglas” been purchased by the Victorian Premier’s media team around about December 2020?
    _______________
    Shorten can make me an offer. I’m open to do business.

  5. Andrews has placed Morrison between a rock and a hard place. If Morrison agrees to pro rata payments from the first day of a lockdown then the precedent is in place for any future lockdown in any state or territory. Morrison can stick his “ New Deal” lockdown as a last resort bullshit up his arse. It will also be a backdown / backflip from his earlier statements today about the 7 day wait period. Simply dragged into doing the right thing and not leading.

    If Morrison does not agree and sticks to the 7 day wait period then he will be faced with very loud “ unfair” and “ playing favourites” criticism from far and wide.

    What a conundrum.

  6. Recon

    Its how they control foot and mouth in cattle.

    No cases in Tanzania since May last year either if there figures are to be believed

  7. Pear Dan
    If you search Trove newspapers for poll results you will get results since the 40s; Gallop is a good search term. You will also find some sets of surveys of social attitudes including on attitudes to the white Australia Policy

  8. guytaur @ #2742 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 5:06 pm

    @StephenMcDonell tweets

    The #US Senate has unanimously passed legislation banning the import of all products from #China’s #Xinjiang region, introducing an assumption that products there have been made using forced labour. #Xinjiang exporters would have to prove no forced labour for #US import exemption

    I wonder how much the US actually imports from Xinjiang? I’m guessing none that can’t suddenly be found to be being exported from elsewhere in China.

    If they were serious, they would ban all imports from China.

    If we were serious, so would we.

  9. Player Onesays:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 5:17 pm
    Recon @ #2756 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 5:15 pm

    Shorten can make me an offer. I’m open to do business.

    Shorten made you an offer at the last election. You rejected it.
    _____________
    As long as it doesn’t involve him being PM. It’s going to be hard enough to vote for Labor next time knowing he’s going to be a minister.

  10. Sally Sara
    @sallyjsara
    · 7m
    BREAKING: Up to 70 ambulance staff in SW Sydney declared COVID close contacts and ordered to self isolate.

  11. Recon says:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 5:15 pm
    Lars Von Triersays:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 5:12 pm

    I must say your views have changed. Has the on-line identity “Rex Douglas” been purchased by the Victorian Premier’s media team around about December 2020?
    _______________
    Shorten can make me an offer. I’m open to do business.
    _________________
    It could be a sound investment for Littlefinger’s media team – especially when the order is given to implement Order 66 against Albo in 2023.

  12. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/15/argentina-surpasses-grim-milestone-of-100000-covid-deaths

    Argentina has become the fifth country in Latin America to surpass 100,000 deaths linked to COVID-19, as the country suffers a surge in coronavirus cases that have strained its healthcare network and worsened an already dire economic crisis.

    On Wednesday, the Argentinian health ministry said that the country registered 614 new deaths during the last 24 hours.

  13. I would guess that Morrison’s “1 in 8”, ~12.5%, is going to be percentage of eligible adults, not percentage of total population since children aren’t authorized to receive the jab yet. Of course having a bigger number sounds better, but herd immunity aint going to care about Morrison’s spin.

  14. Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 5:34 pm
    Dans cheerleader in the background – “Luv ya Dan .. f##k Murdoch !”
    ______________
    Rex I admire your ability to attend the presser and join in on PB.

  15. the difference between Jeroen Weimar and recidivist Reconditioned on here.

    Weimar:

    “The reason I’m so, you know, the reason we’re so frustrated with this is we are sitting here, you know, four or five hours away from having to go through another five-day lockdown in the state because of the actions of two incursions from the other state. That is extremely problematic for us, we have a live outbreak to deal with. It is far more important for Dan, myself and the rest of our teams to be focused on dealing with active outbreaks, so we can bring this thing to ground and we need the support of the wider community on that and the reason I’m so frustrated … in endlessly going over the details of who these people are and what their star sign is, it doesn’t help us with that. The only thing we have to do is get this thing under control and move on. There are enforcement people who can deal with the wheels of justice in slow time.”

    ReCON:

    Troll, troll, troll. Goad, Goad, Goad. Look at how many points I can score off posters here!!!! Aren’t I brilliant??? Look how brilliant I am. Look at me. Look at me. Look at me.

  16. Dan Andrews is the best communicator amongst First Ministers in the nation – this presser is showing up Gasbag Gladys and Wally Wallpaper for the frauds they are…

  17. This is the SECOND time the NSW government have let this bastard of a thing get away. WTF is wrong with them?

    On a slightly different tangent. Now that scummo has thrown the ATAGI under the bus and they’ve fought back, how long will it be before he turns on the grunt in charge of health?

  18. Andrews

    “Retail is closed. Click and collect.

    There’s a list. If you are on the list, you can go to work. If you’re not, you can’t.”

    Compare this clear messaging with GladysB’s mamby pamby please do the right things palava..

  19. Recon

    “I’m certain that post politics Dan’s ears can be utilized for some kind of industrial process….”

    Not nice, but (even worse) not funny.

  20. sprocket_ @ #2784 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 5:43 pm

    Lizzie, in NSW you have to decide if you’re on the list or not. If in doubt, just use common sense.

    It seems that you are only eligible for financial support if your employer tells you not to come to work.

    This is why there is no definitive list. Your employer decides who gets support and who doesn’t.

  21. I think Gladys’ presser went longer. Dan losing stamina?

    Perhaps he doesn’t waffle so much?
    _____
    It’s the questioners he exhausts by answering all their questions with them knowing he won’t do a walk-off.

  22. lizzie @ #1071 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 5:35 pm

    Such a relief to listen to Dan after Gladys.

    Like a breath of fresh air.

    I did like the way he said he wasn’t here to make snide remarks about other states too. Which is kind of a passive aggressive way of making a snide remark about another state (no names, no pack drill). 😆

  23. Well, this is pathetic.
    Morrison could have had most of the country with two doses of Pfizer or a dose of Pfizer with an AZ follow up.
    We would be looking at opening up to the world.
    Instead half the country is locked up and we have a prime minister who thinks it is worth his time to explain that he really, truly never shat his pants at the Engadine’s Maccas.

  24. If the group of 18th century minded IR warriors who currently make up our Federal government stay in office much longer, we will soon have children dying stuck in chimneys again.

    I say this because the National Dust Disease Taskforce in 2019 has handed down its (very weak) final report into the use of engineered stone (i.e. granite style benchtops etc) and consequent disease (silicosis). They have recommended a national licensing scheme and monitoring for 3 years, but no product bans.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-15/silicosis-workers-engineered-stone-dust-disease-taskforce-report/100295818

    This is Asbestosis all over again – another fatal, incurable disease from inhaling fine, sharp-edged dust. I have argued this one on building sites in suburban Adelaide, including the mall upgrade a few years ago. The only group less interested in stopping this problem than the industry are the safety regulators.

    This is probably causing dozens of deaths per year now, and many more in future.

  25. Recon I think it was more the case the journos ran out of questions. As a Victorian I’m cool with the 5 day lockdown. And loved the dude at the conference call hi yelled out “Good on you Dan, thanks to our HC workers and f*** Murdoch”

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