The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
Come the evening, a longish diversion into and a bit beyond the Miles Franklin Award –
Tasmanian author Amanda Lohrey has won the $60,000 Miles Franklin Literary Award for her seventh novel, The Labyrinth —
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-15/miles-franklin-literary-award-tasmanina-author-amanda-lohrey/100293360
In that article, there’s a picture of the most famous labyrinth in the world, at Chartres Cathedral, out from Paris an hour or two beyond Versailles. Well before television, when we would sit listening to the radio, and the record player, I remember as a child hearing Charles Laughton telling stories played on a vinyl LP, and one was permanently etched in my memory, that of his arriving at Chartres, seeing the great spires appearing out of the golden summer fields.
He’s a powerful story teller.
I would years later make the pilgrimage. My story pales, of me arriving one very hot day, unbeknownst to me during the rehearsal period of a biannual organ festival, of standing seemingly alone in the cold, eyes accomodating to the darkness, and the brilliance of the great windows lit from the beyond, when an organ burst into play, and me into tears. It was as close to a peak experience as I had ever had, one that would end with the banality of the barman at the bar near the station, where I was waiting for the train back to Paris, suggesting I should stay with him that night, rather than go to the ‘war’ (guerre) which I had mispronounced for ‘platform’ (gare). They smiled to themselves, the few there in the late afternoon, at the barman picking up the young stranger who was too set on going to the war, a routine I think they’d well seen before.
Here’s the great story teller, on Chartres. It’s a relief from some of our daily troubles.
https://youtu.be/qWhH7Mbb85w
I don’t think nath knows how to make a good Pea and Ham soup either. If he’s going off to make it now, and wants to eat it tonight, it won’t be as good as it could be. The soup needs to simmer with the ham hocks for hours in order to draw out all the flavour from the bones.
On the other hand, he could just be getting it out of a can in order to make it. 😉
Don’t quit your day job, Recon.
Prof says unless Gladys tightens restrictions, she’ll never get to zero cases by 1 Sept.
Itza,
Such a beautiful story. I feel sure you are one of those people, who it has been discovered, when they listen to music are literally able to feel their hairs stand on end and it sends shivers down their spine. Like me. 🙂
C@tmomma @ #2805 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 6:01 pm
Thanks C@t, how good is music, but it’s Charles Laughton story to tell. He’s amazing.
jackol
“I would guess that Morrison’s “1 in 8”, ~12.5%, is going to be percentage of eligible adults”
If a Liberal Party politician utters a number, its a dead set certainty that intellectual dishonesty will be involved.
BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS
The Australian Labor Party are now favourites to win the next federal election according to Sportsbet
ALP 1.85
LNP 1.90
Itza
Thanks for such a lovely post. Although not in the class of Chartres, I had a similar experience in the Gedächtniskirche in Berlin. The choir rehearsing a Bach cantata was so emotional for me.
Fortunately it isn’t so easy to mistake Krieg for Bahnhof. 🙂
Cameron @ #2808 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 6:08 pm
One can only imagine how well they would be doing if they had a decent leader and some decent policies.
All of this would have been unnecessary if Gladys had an ounce of competence and had made sure that NSW Health was taking simple and obvious steps to prevent quarantine leakage (like having staff dedicated to vaccinating high risk workers and supervising them). After Avalon, not tracking down and fixing potential quarantine leaks is inexcusable. Totally inexcusable.
To the Liberal apologists. Suck shit. Your view of the world has led to this. Its cost billions.
Cameron
“The Australian Labor Party are now favourites to win the next federal election according to Sportsbet”
There was a recent surge of money on an ALP victory from someone called ‘mundo’.
Ha!
https://twitter.com/YaThinkN/status/1415585693548441602?s=20
It’s not the people from SW Sydney who are disobeying lockdown orders:
Ballantyne @ #2809 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 6:09 pm
Lovely. Music in sacred places can be so completely on another level. (That new Bahnhof is something else.)
Was the border between NSW and Victoria closed?
Oh dear. Crikey shits in its own bed with this one..
https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/07/14/not-all-experts-created-equal/
“Adam Schwab is the co-founder of Luxury Escapes, a Melbourne-based travel company, a regular contributor to Crikey and a board member of Private Media, the publisher of Crikey.”
That one is worthy of a mention in Media Watch.
Steely Dan yes it has been closed.
One can only imagine how well they would be doing if they had a decent leader and some decent policies.
Player One, I think Labor has learned their lesson,
Its best to go to an election with no policies with an ordinary leader
and it seems to be working….
NSW 11 am Friday.
Reporter – “Gladys where is our list, the list that tells everyone what’s allowed to open .. that list.. like the list they have in Victoria”
Gladys – “I’ll pass you over to Dominic Perrottet”
The full list..
https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-07/210715%20-%20Table%20of%20Restrictions_0.pdf
Thanks
Come to think of it Wally Walpamur does have some resemblance to Wally Wallpaper doing his Mr Bunnings and Chookshed man act.
Like the death of the Reef, this one has been heading our way for the past ten years.
Not before time, IMO. The Coalition’s Free Rider strategy is falling to pieces:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/15/what-does-the-eus-carbon-tariff-proposal-mean-for-australia
@CloverMoore tweets
Our two biggest cities have been failed by the Federal Government, which simply did not do the work to secure the vaccines we need.
ID
“ Music in sacred places can be so completely on another level. ”
I walked into Notre Dame and almost started believing in God when a boys choir started singing. I didn’t even know the piece.
Ditto. It’s a nervous wait, but so far QLD has resisted the urge to just close the border.
Btw, Itza, my #1 son told me that he has been to the El Greco and Goya museums in Spain since he’s been there.
I want him to go and see Picasso, Dali and Miro and the architecture of Gaudi. However, he loves classical art more than modern art. I’ll keep persisting. 🙂
I would, after the last Federal election, take the bookies odds on a Labor win at the next Federal election with huge heap of sea salt….The bookies got it wrong last time and paid out before the election. In actual fact, runes, the gizzards of chooks or tea leaves are better predictive media. Having said this, many of the commercial opinion polls were just about as good at predicting which party would win….not…….
Even if Labor was leading 56-44 the day before the election I would not put too much money on a Labor win……
Wonder how the bushfire season is going to go this summer.
Perhaps Morrison will be so scared of that prospect that he will go to the election before Christmas, despite the Covid catastrophe.
A disturbing story. A pal of mine told me tonight that a cobber of his sister was contacted by “the government” for failing to
register on her entry to a store in Glen Innis, in consequence of which, she was mandated to enter quarantine for the requisite period. For whatever reason, she ommitted the QR code, with the result that the ANZ apparently provided her details.
Tricot.
“Past performance is no indication of future performance”
Last election was an outlier though, they didn’t call it the miracle win for nothing…
The vast majority of the time the bookies get it right
they have to get it right
Labor should win but I wouldn’t put any money on it. Betting markets aren’t the best predictor of elections.
Thanks, Itza for the Charles Laughton link. 🙂
If there is a God, Labor should win.
You have to remember in previous elections, both state and federal, the incumbent usually wins 1 more election against all odds, after being in for a very long time (that was last election for the coalition) then the opposition ends up wining in a landslide the following election
it will be no different this time…
Add to that this current government has too much baggage,
Record debt 1 trillion, poor vaccine rollout
As long as Labor keeps their mouths shut, I can’t see anyway the Coalition can win
Anyhoo, it’s Newspoll weekend. We shall see what we shall see.
What has this country become that one can’t even have a remedial massage without aspersions cast(?).
3 paramedics in Liverpool infected and they have closed the station and put 60 into isolation.
I’d recommend anyone who hasn’t seen it to watch “Ms Represented” on the ABC. Utterly fascinating and confronting viewing.
Well, put your money on Labor now!
A bit sick of all those saying the community is buckling under the strain when what they really mean is that they personally can’t do all the things they want to
Outside of the Murdoch bubble journalists are starting to draw some inevitable conclusions as the Gladys outbreak spreads to Victoria. Even the Murdoch press will have trouble blaming this one on Dan.
“Michael Rowland
@mjrowland68
Just imagine if those NSW Public Health Orders covering airport drivers were that little bit tighter back in June…Disappointed face#COVID19nsw #Covid19Vic #COVID19Aus”
“One can only imagine how well they would be doing if they had a decent leader and some decent policies.”
Piss off, One Track record. You really are a tiresome pain in the arse.
If there’s a God Morrison has direct contact with them so wouldn’t count on it C@t.
Holdenhillbilly
3 paramedics in Liverpool infected and they have closed the station and put 60 into isolation.
So PPE & training & they get infected!!!
Victoria showing the Berejiklian govt how it’s done with Covid management: go early, go hard.
“If there is a God, Labor should win.”
True, but is there, Catmomma?
ajm @ #2842 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 7:09 pm
In Sydney you wouldn’t know there’s a lockdown.
What’s Ms Represented about, Asha?