The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
That’s essentially calling the majority of Qlders a bunch of plonkers – which at the moment I agree with.
Hillary sends her warmest regards, Rex.
Yay for AstraZeneca. Why ? Its side effects kicked along mix and matching .
.
Mix-and-Match COVID Vaccines: The Case Is Growing, but Questions Remain
Studies suggest mixing vaccines provokes potent immune responses, but scientists want answers on real-world efficacy and rare side effects
Mix-and-match studies were prompted, in large part, by concerns over the safety of the vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca in Cambridge………….Results announced on Monday 1 by a UK group suggest that the combination sometimes outperforms two shots of the same vaccine, and a similar picture is emerging from German studies.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mix-and-match-covid-vaccines-the-case-is-growing-but-questions-remain/#
guytaur (Monday, July 12, 2021 at 12:25 pm):
The Greens may well have some good policies.
However their current political approach is projectile vomiting of all their policies at anyone who happens to be standing around.
This is unlikely to have the results they claim to intend
I remember saying awhile ago that the NSW Libs would have to make some kind of monumental stuff up in order to lose government. Well, this has the potential to be it. Whether or not it’s perceived that way once the dust has settled is another story, but the situation in Sydney is pretty dire. Victorians don’t seem to be coming after Vic Labor with baseball bats after all their outbreaks though, so maybe that’s instructive of how people will react afterwards.
And remember, NSW Labor remain completely inept, are still in desperate need of a a complete rebuild, and remain a toxic political entity. There will need to be a dramatic change in those regards if they are to benefit from the Liberals’ mismanagement of the state. I’d also caution Labor supporters against getting excited about lots of people getting sick, it really isn’t a good look.
Federally, it seems Morrison is finally copping some much deserved blame for his failure to have the country vaccinated by now. We should not be in this situation. But again, Federal Labor, while not quite as inept as their NSW counterparts, aren’t much chop either and still spend far too much time supporting the Coalition rather than opposing them.
Labor’s primary remains quite low and Albo’s ratings are pretty poor too it has to be said. Given how bad the Morrison gov is they should be a lot higher. But it is looking like it will be a close election though thanks to Greens preferences putting Labor in a more competitive position.
BK @ #249 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 12:42 pm
The majority of Qlders are apparently happy with their fake national leader and the rorting and corruption and incompetence. Environmental policy ..? over their dead bodies ..!!
Could the mix and match speed up our vaccination ? AZ now and a Pfizer when the supposed ‘flood’ of it hits our shores.
Dandy Murray @ #250 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 12:44 pm
So in your opinion why is the Coalition 53-47 up in Qld ?
They don’t want to, or they don’t know how?
lizzie @ #239 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 12:34 pm
I don’t think there’s a living Victorian who’d expect consistency from the Fed Govt.
From the Guardian blog
Hunt trying to play down the Rudd intervention
Look, I did chuckle when I saw the story. We received the letter after we’d done the work with Pfizer and we knew the outcome was likely to be exactly as it was of moving to the million a week.
And that we did, as, as a group, say, well, we know that once the Government announces it that letter from the former prime minister’s likely to be put out there. But we appreciate all of the, the help, even if it hasn’t added to the outcome.
But look, this is serious work that the Australian Government’s been doing. We’ve contracted the 40 million with Pfizer, but we’ve been able to bring it forward, and, you know, that’s what, that’s what matters.
And I’ll let others speak for themselves. But that action came after the fact but we were certain that the letter would be put out there. But anyway, we’ll let others speak for themselves but I’m happy for the Australian people that we’ve been able to achieve this.
“There are reports that the next sitting of federal parliament may be postponed because of the situation in NSW and multiple states placing travel bans on the ACT.
The AFR is reporting that discussions are under way about potentially rescheduling the next sitting, which I believe is meant to start on 3 August.” Amy Reneikis.
_______
This is something Morrison WILL be praying for!
“Hillary sends her warmest regards, Rex.”
***
She was right – they were/are deplorables. Not the smartest thing to say for someone in her position trying to win over as many of them as she could, but it was the truth.
Of course, as someone who is in part responsible for up to two and half million deaths in Iraq, Clinton herself could also be described as deplorable. There are many deplorable people in the world unfortunately.
Someone asked why Mr Morrison couldn’t pick up the telephone and call the PFizer Chairman?
Well it’s 50 years and we’ve moved on from Tiberius with a Telephone and now all we have is Caligula without COVID Vaccines.
Some posters have lamented the support of Scrott’s mob in Quinceland. I recently read an article that suggested higher temperatures could, as has happened before, lead to smaller bodies and perhaps smaller brains in humans. I thought of Qld. ….. now to “Post Comment” and………………….
That is not what I said. You are jumping at shadows. I am saying;
a) Greens policy is not ALP policy.
b) Greens do not represent all urban society.
Hence, your statement that the reason the regions are turning to the Coalition and joining a culture war against urban Australia and the ALP can only be for 2 reasons.
They are naturally hateful people. Hating “the others”.
They are naturally gullible to the attempts by Christensen etc to enlist them in this war.
These are YOUR options. These are the options we must take if we accept your statements that a bunch of greens driving to Adani are the reason the regions are turning against urban Australia and the ALP.
Or, we can question your claims and broaden our options to include the influence of money in the campaign (Palmers extreme advertising blitz), the influence of regional media being at the time dominated by Murdoch, and the deficiencies in the ALP in countering those two things as well as a lack of focus on the regions and lack of charisma of the leadership team to fight for that space in the campaign and the years preceding it.
The ALP had a very sensible Coal policy in the last election. They recognised that metallurgical coal has a ways to run. It recognised that exports of coal to China had a ways to run too (and allowed for under current climate agreements). Coal wasnt going to die overnight. But they couldnt get into the debate. They had been losing their footing in the regions for some time and that has far less to do with the Greens than you continually postulate.
Simon Katich @ #197 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 11:56 am
My Sydney based parents are one of these. Thankfully, they have now both had their first shot of AZ in the last couple of weeks. (It was hard work getting them across the line – as they wanted to wait for Pfizer)
“That’s essentially calling the majority of Qlders a bunch of plonkers – which at the moment I agree with.”
***
Many plonkers in QLD, but there are also many decent Queenslanders too. Just have a look at how the Greens vote is surging in the state in recent times. It’s not all bad.
Parliament s scheduled to sit for four weeks during August/September, starting August 3.
https://www.aph.gov.au/News_and_Events/Events_Calendar/Events_Search_Result#range=yearly&display=calendar&from=2021-01-01&to=2021-12-31&senate=1&house=1&estimates=1&sb=1&sa=1&ss=1&committees=0&sh=0&hh=0&jh=0&sc=0&ir=0&visit=0&tr=0&se=0&ex=0&od=0&general=0&pubhol=1
LongMemory82 @ #265 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 12:29 pm
Great news. As an asthmatic under 50, I am halfway through the Pfizer and will get the AZ via the GP when the time comes.
so Rudd was correct..
Pfizer statement…
Recent media reports suggesting that any third party or individual has had any role in contractual agreements reached between Pfizer and the Australian Government are inaccurate.
Taylor nor Rudd ever said that he was involved in “contractural” agreements.. in fact Rudd specifically said he wasn’t a rep of Gov.
I would like to see our Media get off their arses and go after the Black Marketeers dealing vaccinations to spivs and lurk merchants apparently bragging at how they “know someone who knows someone”.
I would have thought family members of GPs should be in the sights, too.
(In fact I KNOW they should be)
lizzie @ #245 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 12:38 pm
As leader of the Liberal party, isn’t he already?
LongMemory82
Good news. I don’t blame them though for hesitancy. Among Scotty and Wee Hunt’s genius moves was when side effects of AZ was becoming a bit of a public issue. Instead of putting it into perspective and allaying fears they came out with “Good news everyone! We are getting Bazillions of Pfizer in a few months” . Way to make sure people will wait for the ‘better’ option.
Firefox:
The Greens had a swing against them at the last QLD state election. They did great in the inner city, yes, but went backwards everywhere else.
I mostly agree with Simon Katich on this one. In particular, Murdoch’s dominance here should not be underestimated. In much of the state, there isn’t a single non-Murdoch paper – the nationwide, statewide, and local papers are all NewsCorp.
In any case, it should be remembered that 53-47 to the LNP in Queensland represents a significant swing to the ALP.
P 1
I expect he would make even more money as a television evangelist. He has always had his eye on the next step up the ladder, so where could he go when he’s no longer PM?
Also on Queensland
We know it’s ignorant not deplorable or other factors.
I know Labor has learnt from this.
I don’t agree with all of Labor’s policies. I think, however that this time Labor will define its policies not the LNP Murdoch and Palmer. It’s remarkable that I can’t say I am sure of it.
The reason I think this is because Labor did learn from 2019 and used it to retain power as a state government.
So that is another reason I think BW is wrong in his the LNP will use the Greens to define Labor policy. I agree they will try again. I just think this time Labor is ready for it.
ItzaDream @ #237 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 12:33 pm
Amazing that this hasn’t happened sooner.
Whinging about people not voting the way you want them to vote isn’t a great electoral strategy. Calling them morons is an even worse one. Far better is to try to take to time to understand why they aren’t voting for your side and to work out how you might win them over.
a r
I would have thought most Quincelanders would already have run like hell from Gladystan.
“So in your opinion why is the Coalition 53-47 up in Qld ?”
Jobs, Rex.
Look BW, I too cringe when I see RDN or Bandt poncing around in their finest spouting policies that seem insensitive to people whose livelihoods are going to be effected. But I dont see why it should turn off a worker in the regions from voting for the ALP.
And the division of Hunter is an example of that. Adani was going to adversely affect the coal mining future of the Hunter. Yet the ALP 2PP was lower than in the 2013 election where the ALP had instituted a carbon ‘tax’.
Blaming the Greens seems too easy. It is low hanging fruit. And I worry it obscures the real issues at play.
Over 20 suburbs in Sydney’s south-east without power after major cable damaged
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/over-20-suburbs-in-sydney-s-south-east-without-power-after-major-cable-damaged-20210712-p588xc.html
Who ever wrote the Pfizer press release did a brilliant job, not one word contradicts Taylors article or Rudd’s letter.
They must have worked in the UN at some stage.
Dandy Murray @ #279 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 1:15 pm
the one’s that will soon disappear ..?
Regardless of the well structured letter from Pfizer, it’s pretty clear that Rudd met with officials of Pfizer and there was a degree of venting about the Federal Government’s negotiation style and the poor outcomes achieved.
It’s also clear that Rudd used a conduit of an Australian business person to facilitate the meeting and that there appears to be anger and bewilderment in some business quarters about the Governments style, management skills and general competence in the procurment of Covid vaccines.
The danger for Morrison is that these self perceptions are core to the LNPs reasons to be in Government and if they are shown up for being incapable of negotiating straight forward business agreements that will protect the health of the community, it won’t be long until there is substantial movement in the polls and the pendulum of political fortune will be swinging Labor’s way.
Morrison may be a target for a removal and I reckon numbers are starting to be counted for a leadership challenge.
“The Greens had a swing against them at the last QLD state election. They did great in the inner city, yes, but went backwards everywhere else.”
***
Swings where it matters – in their targeted seats. It’s a strategy that is working very well.
As for the entire state of Queensland, the Greens received a very healthy +3.12% statewide swing in the Qld Senate race at the 2019 Federal Election. Labor on the other hand suffered a negative -3.81% swing against them.
Ash Leu
One of the stoopids of Hilary’s ‘deplorables’ was that Trump support among the various ‘demographics’ was actually strongest among people earning higher than average.Not the po’ dumb white red necks the msm so often portrayed as the bigly Trump supporters.
.
It’s time to bust the myth: Most Trump voters were not working class.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/05/its-time-to-bust-the-myth-most-trump-voters-were-not-working-class/
Trump voters earn more and are better educated than the typical American
https://qz.com/679589/trump-voters-earn-more-and-are-better-educated-than-the-typical-american/
Trump voters earn a lot more than you might think
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/05/05/donald-trump-average-voter-income-72000-middle-class/83972800/
SK
For workers.
Pandemics. Climate Change is there a link?
I have seen credible reports the answer is yes.
Let’s be very clear. This whole the Greens ponce about spouting policy as if they don’t care is just more political marketing attack.
The truth is they care a damn lot. The problem has always been the disaster coming is so bad telling the truth makes you sound like the crazy man on the street with the sign the end is nigh.
The facts we see from Death Valley having another record heat day is that we are living in a disaster movie. Complete with the politicians and media* ignoring the experts as disaster strikes
Edit: *
Yes, Rex. Hence Qld Labor’s aggressive push to support new industries in the regions.
Stop Press: Masks and Gloves.
“Let’s be very clear. This whole the Greens ponce about spouting policy as if they don’t care is just more political marketing attack.
The truth is they care a damn lot.”
***
Yes, well said.
Hunt and Gravitas not made for each other.
et tu, brute?
I didnt say they dont care. I said, in the regions, it seems they dont care. People will always listen more closely to people who look like them and talk like them. So when they see RDN or Bandt telling them that giving up coal is good for them – they arent all ears – they are all fists.
SK – I certainly don’t want to buy into the Greens-ALP never-ending snipefest.
However, I would say your analysis has a major flaw in analyzing the actual policies and independence of the Greens and ALP. I think it’s abundantly clear by now that many many people – perhaps a majority – vote almost entirely based on their emotional response to the party and leader.
BW’s argument on this (which I at least partially agree with) seems to me to come down to 2 things:
* the association of the ALP and Greens – from the 2010 minority government days to the Greens’ repeated claims about how the ALP should/will need to do a deal to form government to the claims by the LNP to the line run by large sections of the media. The fact that the ALP and the Greens are entirely separate entities that have little to do with each other is irrelevant to the perception by low-information voters that the Greens and ALP are close.
* when the Greens/Greens-associated-folks, like the convoy, provoke a strongly negative reaction, that will spill over onto any perceived fellow travelers, regardless of the facts about independence and actual policy etc. As a voter driven by emotional response, the seeming appropriate course of action against something that has caused you a visceral negative reaction would be to rush to put maximum distance, and I think it’s quite reasonable to imagine that quite a few voters voted for the LNP simply as an anti-Green vote; the ALP probably didn’t even register on the way through. Voting for the ALP doesn’t stick it up those southerner inner-city Prius-driving latte-sipping Green hippies now, does it?
Simon Katich
The people of Dawson must be interesting folk 🙂
“I didnt say they dont care. I said, in the regions, it seems they dont care.”
***
Not so. I live in “the regions” – nowhere near NSW’s inner city areas – and the Greens are very popular here. The people of the Ballina electorate love being represented by a Greens MP (Tamara Smith). Suggesting that the Greens have no appeal or support outside the inner city is simply incorrect.
Labor 52,
Libs 34
Doggy scraps 7
was the outcome of the last Queensland Election.
I know who won and it wasn’t the Greens.
We just had our first real dose of life with a compromised NBN. There was a major outage caused by a contractor somewhere in Kingsford hitting a key power cable. 45,000 customers and businesses but, thankfully not POW, off the air. But not just households and businesses. Traffic lights, ALL internet, including mobile, all home phones because they are NBN dependent. Thanks, Malcolm. Even the trams stopped running.
Good to know just how reliable the 000 service is during an incident like that. All to save Rupert’s Foxtel. Which, by the way, is the only thing that hasn’t come back.