The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.
The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.
The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).
The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.
Sceptic says:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:13 pm
“More vaccinated people are dying of COVID than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine. “
https://theconversation.com/amp/most-covid-deaths-in-england-now-are-in-the-vaccinated-heres-why-that-shouldnt-alarm-you-163671
Now, you were saying?
The government would have to be completely mad to go to a federal election until the country is fully vaccinated, for both political and practical reasons.
The recent experience has shown very clearly just how quickly a state can go from cruising along nicely to lock down. It would be hard to imagine a greater gift to an opposition than for such a thing to happen after the PM had called an unnecessary early election. The campaign would write itself.
Beyond that, the disruptive effect on the conduct of the election could be off the scale. Depending on the magnitude of the outbreak, there could well be great difficulties in getting people to work as polling staff, or in any number of other short-term jobs which are needed to make an election work. It would only take one person in an AEC office to be infected for there to be a risk that the entire office might have to close down at the worst possible time. While the AEC like many public service bodies put in place some work from home arrangements last year, they’ve never really been tested in the much more difficult environment of a general election rather than a by-election.
And the same sort of thing could happen to a party’s campaign office, or could sideline a candidate.
Also, while there has been quite a lot of work done on identifying changes which should be made to the Commonwealth Electoral Act to make it better suited to the conduct of elections against the background of a pandemic, none of those changes has yet been made.
Brus..
The fact that more vaccinated people are dying than unvaccinated people does nothing to undermine vaccine safety or effectiveness. In fact, it’s exactly what we’d expect from the excellent vaccines, which have already saved tens of thousands of lives.
Now, you were saying?
I haven’t heard a single infectious disease expert say anything other than get as many people vaccinated as possible, and then deal with the disease largely without lockdowns after that. And it’s what Morrison and Berejiklian and Albanese and Palaszczuk and Andrews are all saying.
I’m not sure what point Bucephalus is trying to make – everyone who matters is saying the same thing with respect to vaccination and ending lockdowns. If there’s a political gotcha there as far as the “endgame” goes for one side or the other I’m not seeing it.
Sure, the feds have totally fumbled the vaccine supply, and NSW has dragged half the country into lockdown through their own incompetence, but the target remains the same regardless of jurisdiction or political persuasion.
Pedant says:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:19 pm
But even once fully vaccinated people are going to get sick and die unless lockdowns continue.
Greensborough Growler says:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 9:34 pm
How do you know my ass is on fire? Don’t you think that’s a little creepy?
Buce
Do yourself a favour. Watch tonight’s Qanda on Iview.
Get a different view to Sky After Dark.
Jackol says:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:24 pm
“Berejiklian and Albanese and Palaszczuk and Andrews are all saying.” – show me quotes where they have said that once vaccinated we are not going to lockdown and accept that people are going to get sick and die – probably in their thousands.
guytaur says:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:28 pm
I watch neither so as normal for your tripe I have no idea what you are banging on about.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html
COVID-19 vaccines are effective
Vaccine breakthrough cases occur in only a small percentage of vaccinated people. To date, no unexpected patterns have been identified in the case demographics or vaccine characteristics among people with reported vaccine breakthrough infections.
COVID-19 vaccines are effective. CDC recommends that everyone 12 years of age and older get a COVID-19 vaccine as soon as they can.
People who have been fully vaccinated can resume activities that they did prior to the pandemic.
“But even once fully vaccinated people are going to get sick and die unless lockdowns continue.”
Yep.. Naturally nothing is 100% effective & some will die… as per normal
Bucephalus (Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 7:33 pm):
First of all, your misuse of “infers” to mean “implies” is hardly helpful and should be corrected.
Second, the main predictable problem in relation to vaccine rollout relates to the highly predictable onset of winter, and the fact that even the original rollout schedule was not fast enough to manage the risk. NSW has an unusually mild winter in 2020 and this has failed to be repeated in 2021 (if anything the 2021 winter is on the cold side). Competent governments don’t mess with General Winter, as I’m sure you’ll appreciate from your studies. The rollout could with even moderate competence be three months ahead of where it currently is, and this would make things far easier than is currently the case.
Third, your logic is unsound in that it categorises “lockdowns” as an all or nothing affair. Instead of that, higher vaccination permits shorter lockdowns and also less frequent lockdowns. It may be that there is a level of vaccination that permits no lockdowns whatsoever, but this will largely be determined by information known about the virus at the time, rather than by the regurgitation of some sort of 19th century ideological debate. Instead of either “a continual state of lockdowns and quarantines forever” or the sudden cessation of all lockdowns, the logical expectation is that the probability that lockdowns are optimal will diminish over time. This is logical in science: probability is the logic of science per E. T Jaynes
Fourth, the facts may have changed in respect of children: more recent virus variants may be substantially more dangerous to children than was the initial virus, and in any event the balance of risk has changed. Currently the population of children under 14 is substantially unvaccinated, and proceeding casually to prohibit lockdowns until the vulnerability of children is properly understood would by indefensibly evil.
https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/covid-19-and-balancing-the-risks-the-vaccine-or-the-virus/
”
porotisays:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 9:05 pm
ItzaDream
Re the documents. The constant use of the word “suggests” suggests the story is based on a large helping of supposition and conjecture.
”
Like CIA used to do about old Soviet Union or any other country where leaders does not listen to them.
10pm Melbourne
Exposure sites top 100 as Victoria Gardens Coles, MCG bar and op-shops added
Almost 20 locations have been added to Victoria’s official exposure site list since 6pm this evening, taking to the total number of venues to 109.
Gladys has little time to work on her backflip with pike
E. G. Theodore says:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:36 pm
Your analysis is good. It is distinctly at odds with the current messaging from all the opponents of the Federal Government that vaccinations would have avoided the current and future lockdowns – the ALP is deliberately misleading the public.
“The government would have to be completely mad to go to a federal election until the country is fully vaccinated, for both political and practical reasons.”
Obviously the election won’t be held this year as Scotty originally wanted. Had that been the case the usual barrage of Australian Government advertising would have started by now.
But he has to go in the first half of next year unless he stretches the constitution to breaking point. Even then he must at least have a half-Senate election by May.
Scotty can no longer hide the vaccine rollout debacle, not even with his media allies running interference. Finally he is strongly motivated to fix it.
the ALP is deliberately misleading the public.
The Liberals and their allies would know all about “misleading the public”.
Bucephalus says:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:47 pm
If Federal Government told all the states to lockdown for 3 months, and contact tracing required, masks are mandatory, And ordered Pfzir vaccine.
Then you might have an argument, but no you don’t have an argument!
Federal Government failed on multiple Fronts.
1. No early lockdowns.
2. No mandatory vaccinations and testings for all international, front line workers, and essential workers from the get go.
3. No Federal response on ALL MANDATORY MASKS WHICH NOW MANY SITES ARE COVID19 HOTSPOT!
Morrison stated his attitude to dealing with the Covid crisis is” trial and error”.
Sadly ,Morrison has arrogantly not learnt from other countries Trials and errors but seems determined to make many errors other counties have made and then add his own special error of not having any urgency about getting sufficient vaccines.
Morrisons disastrous political epitaph will be,
” Its not a race”
@rachelebaxendale tweets
BREAKING: @ScottMorrisonMP, @DanielAndrewsMP, @JoshFrydenberg & @timpallas have tonight struck a deal which will see Victorian workers receive Commonwealth lockdown support from 11:59pm tonight theaustralian.com.au/nation/coronav… #springst #auspol
Kremlin’s papers show plans to put Trump in the White House.
‘They agreed a Trump White House would help secure Moscow’s strategic objectives, among them “social turmoil” in the US and a weakening of the American president’s negotiating position.’
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/15/kremlin-papers-appear-to-show-putins-plot-to-put-trump-in-white-house?__twitter_impression=true
Evening all. A few points on the two diseases swirling about discussions tonight – covid19 and Liberal ideology.
The fake gotcha about a majority of UK covid victims being vaccinated lately misses the fact that vaccinations so far concentrated on the elderly and most at risk first. So it is not apples with apples. Within any given age group the death rate for covid if vaccinated is still far lower.
From smh blog…
Scotty..
“I’m not kidding if this thing gets into the community like we’ve seen overseas, then people will die” –
Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Oh Scott, do try to keep up. It is in the community and people are dying. I’m not kidding. They are dying because we did not vaccinate them AND we failed to build fit for purpose quarantine stations.
Lars Von Trier (Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 8:20 pm):
On 3 July, Canada was 67.9% at least one dose, and 35.9% fully vaccinated:
– https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vaccination-coverage/
both as % of full population; higher for over 12s of course
Clearly, Australia is nowhere near those levels, and the statement is ridiculous.
So how was it that the famous free-thinkers Lars and Nath were deceived?
Well, what Mr Morrison’s government has done is shifted the data as if the two vaccination programs had started at the same time, whereas in fact Mr Morrison’s program started about 100 days late. So what that chart actually telling us is where the rollout would have been if it had started when it should have started, which is several months before it actually did start.
Government by retrospective fantasy – what a fantastic development.
As for GHG policy and Australia getting tariffed, yes we are going to:
“Bucephalus @ #2870 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 7:39 pm
There’s no guarantee that the tariffs won’t be in contravention of the WTO rules. This has yet to be tested.”
Buc’s statement is nonsense. The WTO already gave a ruling in 2020 on the legality of tariffing imports based on presence or absence of a carbon price and carbon emissions. It is legal, just a question of how it is done. See
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/abstract_trade_climate_change_e.pdf
And the EU is already preparing draft carbon price tariff policies now. So any claims we will not get tariffed with no climate policy or carbon price are Scomo-speak i.e. lies.
The Liberal tri-hards are really laying on the lies with a trowel tonight. They know they are stuffed unless Sydney gets rapidly under control.
Melbourne is lose-lose for the Liberals now. Apart from being given no lockdown financial assistance by the Prime Minister of NSW until Sydney needed it, consider the possible outcomes.
If Andrews get covid under control Labor is the hero. If he can’t, Morrison and Berejiklian are the villains who caused it.
The fake gotcha about a majority of UK covid victims being vaccinated lately misses the fact that vaccinations so far concentrated on the elderly and most at risk first. So it is not apples with apples. Within any given age group the death rate for covid if vaccinated is still far lower.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson's_paradox
I don’t get the point of the repeated New Zealand comparisons. We don’t live in New Zealand. What does the success or lack thereof of their own vaccine rollout have to do with… anything?
DM
Thanks, I forgot the name of the paradox but that is precisely the point.
As for the other nonsense about no-tariffs on the Australian economy while it is steered by this ship of fools, I even found an Aussie paper on its potential impacts written by none other than Craig Emmerson in his now KPMG role.
https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2021/03/making-carbon-border-adjustment-proposals-wto-compliance.pdf
@LotharBirkner tweets
fully vaccianted by country in %
Israel 58
UK 53
Spain 48
US 48
Canada 47
Germany 45
Austria 44
Ireland 43
Switzerland 42
Italy 41
Netherlands 40
France 39
Turkey 23
Brazil 15
Russia 14
Australia 9,8
Indonesia 5,8
India 5,7
South Africa 2,5
Nigeria 0,7
( world average 12 )
Dandy Murray (Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 11:46 pm):
There you go again.
Bucephalus (Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:47 pm):
Exaggeration, hyperbole, hypocrisy and rorting are all key political skills: necessary and tolerable providing they are kept in moderation and do not become ends in themselves. Not for nothing is politics considered analogous to sausage making.
I don’t know what the ALP has said about the rollout, except that Mr Shorten described it as a “shitshow” and that seems about right.
Grattan on Friday: COVID boxes Morrison in while Albanese hits the road
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-covid-boxes-morrison-in-while-albanese-hits-the-road-164583
Asha Leu (Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 11:46 pm):
It has to do with the fact that there are a bunch of tossers on both the extreme right and the extreme left who think that everything is a political position. The relevance of NZ derives from the presumed position of Ms Ardern and the presumers’ political affiliations relative to it.
Asha Leu @9.21pm
“Someone suggested a couple of pages back that Morrison might step down quietly and move onto a sinecure.”
That someone be me.
Morrison is completely without integrity, depth, sincerity or honesty.
The pathway into politics and the pathway to the PMship were determined and navigated to achieve firstly, financial gain and secondly, notoriety for being singularly successful in achieving the first ambition.
There is nothing else within the package.
Morrison has achieved all he wants by being PM. Morrison finds the bushfires and pandemic an inconvenience. Morrison desires to be loved in the Johnny Howard fawning, almost childlike manner , hence the exaggerated hand shaking together with the “cutepics” with chook houses and hard hats.
Morrison has few genuine friends, something he has come to terms with. Morrison is a security risk and vulnerable, as the pentacostal thing shows.
Whether he goes before an election will be determined by personal opportunity, unfortunately for Morrison, made more difficult by the pandemic.
In fact the need to resign is paramount. Morrison wants desperately to be able to proclaim that had he remained within his tenure of the PMship, all would’ve been good.
But it was all taken from his grasp.
Morrison is the complete deadshit, surrounded by deadshits, baulking at a substantial opponent like Dan Andrews, or off-loading a used convenience like Gladys Berejiklian.
Morrison is not welcome in all of the states or territories, including those with liberal governments
Morrison’s behaviour as a stray dog at the G7 was cringeworthy.
One more wobble in the polls will put the process in place.
Morrison legacy will be deceit, unfairness and lack of transparency.
Morrison wants to move up to a waterfront in the Shire, show off his money and fart as required.
Grattan on Friday: COVID boxes Morrison in while Albanese hits the road
****
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-covid-boxes-morrison-in-while-albanese-hits-the-road-164583
@nafisehkBBC Tweets
Breaking
White house coordinator for MidEast, Brett McGurk has informed Iraqi officials that US troops will withdraw from Iraq.
“step by step”, sources tell me.
“First combat troops will leave and then others” he has told his Iraqi hosts
“Withdrawal from Iraq will not be like what happened in Afghanistan and it will be step by step. The schedule for this will be agreed during Iraqi PM’s trip to Washington” official sources told me
“There you go again.”
It’s a new semester. I’m supposed to repeat myself.
At least 38 dead in ‘catastrophic’ flooding in western Germany
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/14/firefighter-drowns-and-army-deployed-amid-severe-flooding-in-germany
E. G. Theodore says:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:36 pm
+1
E. G. Theodore:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 10:36 pm
Apropos of your analysis let’s hope there are no “black swans” a la Popperian deductive logic.
New thread.
poroti:
Thursday, July 15, 2021 at 9:25 pm
Mavis at 9:14 pm
[‘Then ‘civilisation’ crept along the coast and along came @#@$#@ developers.’]
I should admit that I’ve got skin in the game – a minority proprietary interest. It concerns me that although the buyer has said that he intends to keep it as a trailer park for some 5 years, there are no guarantees post-settlement. If it is developed, there will be quite a number of tenants who’ll have to find a new home, with only two months’ notice. There are now few residential trailer parks on the Goldie, one other selling to a developer last week, your example on the money, the buyer having a property portfolio of around $800m. I accordingly fear the worse but business is business – l guess?
CSIRO finds new COVID-19 vaccine effective against Delta strain
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7342495/warm-vaccine-works-against-variant/
Huge study supporting ivermectin as Covid treatment withdrawn over ethical concerns
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/16/huge-study-supporting-ivermectin-as-covid-treatment-withdrawn-over-ethical-concerns
E. G. Theodore @ #3023 Thursday, July 15th, 2021 – 11:30 pm
This deserves repeating before the Liberal Gish Gallopers get on their high horses again today.
Buce
‘You guys say vaccination would stop the lock down.’
Saying that ‘everyone who wants to be should have been vaccinated by now ‘ and ‘vaccinations would have stopped the lockdown’ are two different things.
The main person who is pushing the ‘vaccination would have stopped the lockdown’ line is Berejilklian. It’s possible she posts here, but it’s doubtful that, if she does, she qualifies as one of ‘you guys’.
GB is pushing that line to avoid having to shoulder responsibility for the latest outbreak.
Lockdowns – at least in Australia – are determined on medical advice. We won’t know what that is for a largely vaccinated population until we get there.
How polite. Not sacked or dumped. Relieved of his duties.
2GB 873
@2GB873
Ben is calling on the Health Minister to step down.
Ben Fordham: ‘Brad Hazzard should be relieved of his duties’ – 2GB
Ben Fordham is calling on Brad Hazzard to be relieved of his duties as the NSW Health Minister. “I think it’s time for Brad Hazzard to be given a break,” Ben Fordham said. “We need some fresh…
2gb.com
Unless and until NSW suppress the virus to virtually zero, incursions into other states will
Continue.
Day 1 in lockdown#5.
Still no purpose built quarantine.
Still no vaccines.
Victoria @ #2611 Friday, July 16th, 2021 – 9:29 am
Other states should close their borders to NSW (as some already have). Insane to trust NSW to control its outbreak and prevent leaking into other states. It has already failed to do so.