Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June

New polling data suggests Labor has held on to big gains it made earlier in the year in Queensland and especially Western Australia.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly aggregation from Newspoll, providing large-sample breakdowns for the mainland states and demographic sub-groups compiled from polling conducted from April through to June. This amounts to a sample of 6049 combined from the last four Newspoll surveys.

The results show little change overall on the previous quarter, with all states recording unchanged two-party results except South Australia. This means a 50-50 result in New South Wales, a swing to Labor of around two points compared with the 2019 election; 53-47 to Labor in Victoria, essentially unchanged; 53-47 to the Coalition in Queensland, a swing to Labor of around 5.5%; 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia, a swing of around 8.5%; and 54-46 to Labor in South Australia, compared with 55-45 in the January-March aggregate and 50.7-49.3 at the 2019 election. The striking fact of this stability is that the surges recorded to Labor last time of five points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia have stuck.

The demographic breakdowns have been similarly placid, the biggest movements being of three points to the Coalition among the 65+ cohort (to 65-35) and the lower-middle income cohort (to 51-49). There is still no gender gap on two-party preferred, but there is now one on prime ministerial approval, with Morrison’s net rating deteriorating by 12% among women to +15% but by only 5% among men to +21%. Morrison has also held up better in New South Wales, where his net rating is down six to +26%, than in Victoria (down 11 to +6%), Queensland (down 15 to +20%) and Western Australia (down 15 to +22%).

The results also include breakdowns by working status for the first time, which find Labor leading 51-49 lead among those working full time, 54-46 lead among those working part-time and 60-40 among an “other” category that accounts for about 15% of the sample, while the Coalition leads 61-39 among the retired.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,052 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June”

Comments Page 7 of 62
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  2. SK

    Which is why I have blamed Labor for betraying workers with false hope.

    This seems to have changed with coal.
    Be in no doubt Green people in those regions have been trying education.

    Just see how Christine Milne did with the Wesley Vale Pulp Mill. Labor was not a great help on that one.

    I am agreeing with you. Labor has not been addressing the problem. Part of why I think they are going to do better this time is precisely because Labor has recognised the problem.

    It’s a late start to overcome the “conservative” narrative. Miracles are not going to happen. However it’s a good start.

  3. “SK – I certainly don’t want to buy into the Greens-ALP never-ending snipefest.”

    Me either. Suffice to say I will never, ever vote for the Greens, despite the constant electioneering that goes on here. They are poison.

  5. The LNP won the vast majority of seats in QLD federal election, a party rife with climate change deniers. Yet it seems to me Greens have still not been able reflect on that at all.

  8. One of the stoopids of Hilary’s ‘deplorables’ was that Trump support among the various ‘demographics’ was actually strongest among people earning higher than average.

    I saw some of the interviews with these well off Trump supporters. They seemed rather unpleasant folk but pretty honest when they said they were voting for Trump because they thought it would mean more money for them and less for the poor and vulnerable in the community.

  9. I didn’t see the NSW pressers. Have they actually imposed any more restrictions on movement, or did they just plead for people to behave nicely?

  10. Amy Remeikis@AmyRemeikis
    ·
    5m
    No one is saying Kevin Rudd had any role in ‘contractual agreements’ That’s not the story.
    ***

    Ed@terkey76
    ·
    4m
    You just know that Morrison and Hunt and their entire teams have spent the last 24 hours debating how to spin this story.

    Time that isn’t being spent on getting vaccines into the country.

    That’s another part of the story…

  11. “The fact that the ALP and the Greens are entirely separate entities that have little to do with each other is irrelevant to the perception by low-information voters that the Greens and ALP are close.”

    ***

    Those people should come and read PB for a day, then that perception wouldn’t last long. Many in Labor, particularly those from the Right Faction, absolutely loathe the Greens even more than they loathe the Liberals. On the other hand, the Greens are often dismayed at how Labor behaves and how they so frequently team up with the Coalition.

    Labor and the Greens can and do work well together when we both put our minds to it – the 2010 government and the current ACT gov are great examples of that – but to suggest that the two parties are close, the same, or in some kind of permanent alliance is widely inaccurate.

  12. Simon Katich
    Refreshingly honest BUT a bit disturbing. Such is the state of US society that it is socially acceptable to very publicly declare oneself a greedy selfish bastard and shit on the poor .

  13. Anyone surprised that Morrison continues to run a hundred miles from responsibility, this time by putting the ADF cosplay on stage to wow the audience re vaccines …?

  15. @timsenior tweets

    Perfect storm for Sydney GPs.
    Told to ensure GPs are vaccinated but subject to the same queues and delays as everyone else
    Told to wear PPE (no supplies) no, wear masks (we are)
    Might be named as contact site,, shut down for 2w.
    Switch to Telehealth, where Medicare just been cut

  16. I have no idea what Rudd did or did not do re Pfizer supply.

    However, I doubt very much he will let this story die given he is as cunning as a shit house rat and thus would be well prepared for the obvious and predictable response from the government.

  17. Guytaur,
    “Nothing like a closed mind.”

    There are reasons why my mind is closed to the Greens. One of them is people like you.

    End of conversation.

  19. “Me either. Suffice to say I will never, ever vote for the Greens, despite the constant electioneering that goes on here. They are poison.”

    ***

    Nay, it is that attitude which is the real poison. Suggesting that a party like the Greens which represents progressives and is the voice of the left in Australia is poison is exactly the message that the likes of Murdoch and the Coalition want to spread. The Greens are only poisonous to the right.

  21. Further to my last post I would also be surprised if a journo as experienced as Laura Tingle will just let the story go given what I anticipate will be a attack on her and the ABC by the usual suspects.

  23. So our great hero Kevin Rudd had no impact in getting the 1 million per week of Pfizer doses brought forward as Pfizer’s press release just released states. The ABC, Rudd, Turnbull and a few on here are delusional.
    But where Rudd made an impact was getting the Abbott government elected in a landslide in 2013. He did a great job there.

  24. Jackol @ #295 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 1:01 pm

    SK – I certainly don’t want to buy into the Greens-ALP never-ending snipefest.

    However, I would say your analysis has a major flaw in analyzing the actual policies and independence of the Greens and ALP. I think it’s abundantly clear by now that many many people – perhaps a majority – vote almost entirely based on their emotional response to the party and leader.

    BW’s argument on this (which I at least partially agree with) seems to me to come down to 2 things:
    * the association of the ALP and Greens – from the 2010 minority government days to the Greens’ repeated claims about how the ALP should/will need to do a deal to form government to the claims by the LNP to the line run by large sections of the media. The fact that the ALP and the Greens are entirely separate entities that have little to do with each other is irrelevant to the perception by low-information voters that the Greens and ALP are close.

    * when the Greens/Greens-associated-folks, like the convoy, provoke a strongly negative reaction, that will spill over onto any perceived fellow travelers, regardless of the facts about independence and actual policy etc. As a voter driven by emotional response, the seeming appropriate course of action against something that has caused you a visceral negative reaction would be to rush to put maximum distance, and I think it’s quite reasonable to imagine that quite a few voters voted for the LNP simply as an anti-Green vote; the ALP probably didn’t even register on the way through. Voting for the ALP doesn’t stick it up those inner-city Prius-driving latte-sipping Green hippies now, does it?

    Flaws are certainly possible for a hack like me.

    I have been simplifying for brevity. My essential point is that focussing on the Greens as the reason for losing elections is over egging it as a cause and hence risking not learning other lessons.

    Sooooooo, I dont disagree with your two points. There is definitely potential for the Greens behaviour and policies to negatively impact on the ALP. Yet……. I cant help compare it to how the Nationals nutters do not seem to lose the Liberals seats in urban areas (much – Steggal a standout, Phelps a counter example). So what is the difference? One side is more able to counter the negative impact? Why cant the ALP do this? Why cant they appeal to these voters as the sensible centre? Why cant they get traction with their promises to not form unholy alliances?

    Which brings me back to the other lessons to be learnt from 2019 as I outlined. They were outspent in the regions. They didnt have any friendly media outlets to get a message out (most were decidedly hostile). And…. poor old Shorten just wasnt trusted (which, considering his Beaconsfield history is a topic in itself).

  26. The issue of how to claw back the regions from the Coalition is not a matter of a ‘snipe-fest’.

    It is one of the strategic keys to Labor forming a solid reformist government for more than a vexed few years during which it struggles with a hostile Senate stacked with reactionary trogs and a blackmailing sundry rabble who are all care and no responsibility.

  27. @AmyRemeikis tweets
    “Pfizer couldn’t have been clearer that this outcome was something which was already set” says Greg Hunt – except they could, because the statement denies any third party involvement in “contractual agreements”. That’s it. Pfizer denied something no one suggested had occurred.

  28. …I think it’s quite reasonable to imagine that quite a few voters voted for the LNP simply as an anti-Green vote; the ALP probably didn’t even register on the way through. Voting for the ALP doesn’t stick it up those inner-city Prius-driving latte-sipping Green hippies now, does it?

    The plonkers no doubt prefer the gold standard rorting, corruption and incompetence to those evil latte sipping hippies. 53-47 …!!

  30. I haven’t done the figures but I suspect that the LNP vote in Qld is locked up more than elsewhere in large majorities in a limited number of mostly regional seats. The dominance of the 53/47 split may be more apparent than real

  31. Susan Smith
    @SusanSmithAus
    ·
    4m
    Greg Hunt acknowledges the government received a letter from “the individual in question”

    It’s obvious that Morrison has ordered that no one mentions
    @MrKRudd by name

  32. Is this a candidate for tweet of the year?

    nazir afzal
    @nazirafzal
    What would be really impressive is if Richard Branson was the first Billionaire to go where no Billionaire has gone before – the Tax Office
    Quote Tweet

    Virgin Galactic
    @virgingalactic
    · 13h
    WATCH LIVE: @RichardBranson and crew of mission specialists fly to space on @VirginGalactic’s #Unity22. A new space age is here… https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1YqKDeqvybLGV…

  34. ‘ajm says:
    Monday, July 12, 2021 at 1:55 pm

    I haven’t done the figures but I suspect that the LNP vote in Qld is locked up more than elsewhere in large majorities in a limited number of mostly regional seats. The dominance of the 53/47 split may be more apparent than real’
    ________________________
    Did you mean may be more ‘real’ than ‘apparent’?

  35. I think the serious damage the Greens have done to the environmental movement and progressive politics has been pointed out enough. Pointing it out again is not going to make them go away.

  36. …But where Rudd made an impact was getting the Abbott government elected in a landslide in 2013. He did a great job there.

    Undeniable ! …with help from Littlefinger

  37. lizzie says:
    Monday, July 12, 2021 at 1:11 pm
    P 1

    I expect he would make even more money as a television evangelist. He has always had his eye on the next step up the ladder, so where could he go when he’s no longer PM?

    Here is a good business opportunity for him – go into partnership with the fellow who runs “Hour of Power” across several countries. The business would have large revenues from gullible people and limited expenses. He could run the Australian franchise for a start.

    https://hourofpower.org/australia/

  38. The SA Premier Steven Marshall says people will no longer be able to just tick a box on a form when travelling from NSW, and instead will have to prove they can quarantine alone at home.
    Essential travelers such as truck drivers will have increased testing requirements.

  40. Simon Katich says:
    Monday, July 12, 2021 at 1:54 pm

    …

    I have been simplifying for brevity. My essential point is that focussing on the Greens as the reason for losing elections is over egging it as a cause and hence risking not learning other lessons.
    …’
    _____________________________________________
    1. It is the Greens extremism and the wedging that goes with them that enables voting behaviour to be framed into a binary culture war. The pseph point here is that they may only shift an addition 5% of the electorate but that is generally a big enough margin to make or break formation of a government.

    2. The Greens have zero intention of changing their extremism. They appear to be locked into the culture war dynamic of regional voting. They MUST therefore accept direct accountability for help people like Morrison hold government.

    3. Labor needs policies that reward regions for voting for Labor.

    4. Labor needs to learn from its election strategy failures.

  41. feednk

    Same old same old.

    This is exactly what Labor did for 2019. Blame the Greens.
    That was before the convoy. The convoy was exploited by the LNP.

    Be in no doubt they were able to convince those voters of that because Labor had laid the groundwork by not having clear environmental policy.

    The point SK is making.

    The problem for Labor is it’s ignoring the expert advice to give false hope on timelines to workers. This then flows on to exploitation by the LNP. Joel Fitzgibbon is not alone in this.

  42. poroti @ #311 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 1:13 pm

    Simon Katich
    Refreshingly honest BUT a bit disturbing. Such is the state of US society that it is socially acceptable to very publicly declare oneself a greedy selfish bastard and shit on the poor .

    They justify it by saying the poor dont deserve it, that they had to battle through tough times so leave the poor to do the same….. yadda yadda. We have heard it all before. Biden thrashed Paul Ryan on it back in 2012.

  43. ‘poroti says:
    Monday, July 12, 2021 at 2:01 pm

    ar

    That’s capitalism for you.

    The US of A , imho, has evolved into being an ‘oligarchy’ .’
    _________________________________________

    That is called the Hoover up theory.

  44. guytaur @ #306 Monday, July 12th, 2021 – 11:38 am

    Roy Orbison

    Comments like yours are the true poison.

    Nothing like a closed mind.

    Why?

    Many people look at how ineffectual the Greens have been in their Parliamentary history and say, why would you bother.

    Labor on the other hand are in a position to be elected and have a history of acting when in Government.

  45. I reckon that people like Morrison and Hunt are actually scared to deal directly with executives of large global companies. They know they are not in the same strategic or intellectual league so they send low level bureaucrats to do the work, with the results we have seen

    Cowards

  46. The greens wont be forming government anytime soon and the next federal election will be fought on issues that the greens are weak on.

  47. ajm

    I think you have a point.

    The language used by Hunt there to attack reports about Kevin Rudd’s discussions with Pfizer was fairly stunning, aggressive.

    But drilling down here, there’s a lot he hasn’t really refuted.

    Tingle’s yarn suggested Pfizer’s global leadership was upset that Australia’s part in supply negotiations was being played by “junior” bureaucrats. They seemed to think the PM or a senior minister should be involved.

    Hunt’s response, that a first assistant secretary was doing it, and he was a great guy, is probably true, but it doesn’t seem to actually address the concern that, if Australia wanted more doses, why it wasn’t using every diplomatic means necessary?

  48. ‘ajm says:
    Monday, July 12, 2021 at 2:05 pm

    I reckon that people like Morrison and Hunt are actually scared to deal directly with executives of large global companies. They know they are not in the same strategic or intellectual league so they send low level bureaucrats to do the work, with the results we have seen

    Cowards’
    ______________________________
    It is a mystery. When it comes to a cock up and hide the consequences, or a conspiracy and hide the consequences, this mob are agnostic.

  49. The issue of how to claw back the regions from the Coalition is not a matter of a ‘snipe-fest’.

    I hope peeps dont see my posts as sniping. BW posts interesting opinions based on a lot of experience. Occasionally I like to post a countering view.

    I just dont have his stamina.

  50. A huge company like Pfizer will never issue a public statement that one of its customers is run by no hopers.

    What is said behind the scenes is another matter entirely.

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